Place your snippet of news on this thread if you feel it will help others gain from the news.

cheers GF.

Palm Oil, used predominantly in the food industry as started to move off a recent low of $425 (this is still a very healthy figure) and as moved up to $475 and over in recent days.

The significance of this is that to grow a producing tree takes 10 years and the supply/demand position cannot be turned off and on as a result.

Companys on the market to watch, Anglo Eastern Plantations AEP, and Rowe Evans RWEV.

cheers GF.

From Killick StockBrokers, this one might be worth adding to the watch list. Im not a big fan of bios because of the risk involved but it looks very promosing.....................................

MEDICAL MARKETING Joint Venture

We recently highlighted Medical Marketing (MMG) as worthy of attention. The company, in which I have a personal share holding, has this morning announced the formation of a joint venture, Genvax, to develop a novel DNA vaccine platform technology.

Human trials have been underway since 2001 in areas such as Lymphoma and Myeloma but the technology has broad applications in cancer, viral and bacterial infections (hence the term platform). The technology works on boosting the immune system by teaching it to identify hard to recognise cancer proteins as foreign and destroy them. Early results from the 25 patient trial in lymphoma are encouraging and evaluation of the result is expected by March 2005. Successful results should mean big pharmaceutical groups will start to take financial and commercial interests around that time.

This looks to be the first of a series of announcements due from Medical Marketing as it has a range of predominantly cancer trials moving into the clinical stage. (news flow could push the price higher)

The stock has made good progress in recent sessions up to the mid-80p level where the company is valued at just under 40 million.



cheers GF

Watch out for bid news on Monterrico Metals. Looks like the big boys could soon be moving in.

Shares in Peruvian copper mining outfit Monterrico Metals surged to a new all-time high yesterday in a rumour-driven frenzy, bringing mixed blessings to two top Framlington fund managers.

Monterrico shares (MNA) soared by 68.5p or 16% to 488.5p last night and have now more than doubled since the start of the year.


This is great news for one Framlington fund manager, Roger Whiteoak, but slightly less satisfactory for his colleague Brian Watson who sold all 25,000 shares held by his Framlington Innovative Growth investment trust (FIT) in mid-August.


AAA-rated Whiteoak has stayed on for the ride with 1.2 million shares in his Throgmorton investment trust(THRG) , although he did sell 30,5000 shares last month. He also has a more modest 315,000 shares in the Framlington UK Smaller Companies Accunit trust.


Other renowned investors include AAA-rated Patrick Evershed of New Star who holds 425,000 shares in the New Star Select Opportunities unit trust.


The latest catalyst for Monterrico's share price to leap appears to have been a broker note from Numis Securities on Tuesday upping its price target to 704p and retaining its buy rating. Monterrico has attracted a great deal of speculative interest based on the quality of its operations at Rio Blanco in Peru.


Floated in 2000, it picked up the rights to the Rio Blanco copper project two years ago from US company Phelps Dodge and raised 10.2 million for a full scale feasibility study. This has shown potential to mine 20 million tonnes a year producing 200,000 tonnes of copper concentrate. The surging price of natural resources has added to the sense of excitement around Monterrico.


In July the 100 million company admitted 'more than 10 companies' had expressed interest in Rio Blanco from joint venture level to an outright acquisition of the whole of Monterrico. HSBC has been retained to explore the best ways of extracting value from Rio Blanco with giant copper miner Freeport-McMoran rumoured to be most interested.


Numis Securities added to the excitement yesterday by saying the possible bid cut off date could be in a month's time on 1 October. The excitement over corporate activity is likely to support the share price at least up until that time.

cheers GF

A new Ofex Buy out from Winnies stable of tips, not one for me but some might be interested..............................

BUY ADWALKER AT 11.75P AUGUST 2004


The investment world's first introduction to Adwalker was at Master Investor 2004. Slightly less impressive than Nigel Wray's superb speech but effective nonetheless. Women in Black suits, strapped with screens, printers, credit card machines and a keypad walked through the 1,000 strong audience getting people to experiment with the latest gimmick in the outdoor advertising world. Spurious as it may sound Adwalker specialises in 'mobile media solutions', a modern day technologically advanced version of the 'Sandwich Board Man' and it seems to be making a success of its highly marketable product. Simon Crisp, the CEO has impressive top notch contacts in 3 of the 11 top media buying firms, which has resulted in blue chip clients like Diageo, Sony, Heineken and Eircon using (and re-using) Adwalker screens. With a 17 billion pound market to be tapped into, Adwalker needs only a small portion of that to justify its 13 million pound market cap, and Crisp adds that shareholders will be buying into a realisable future potential. At 11.75p we recommend Adwalker as a strong buy.
The beginnings

Simon Crisp and Keith Jordan have spent nearly 2 years on developing the Adwalker technology and product. Initially piloted in Dublin (where the company is still based), the product is now on its way to reaching the shores of the US and Hong Kong, Adwalker has come a long way since early 2003. Simon Crisp brings with him contacts from his experience of working with huge names like Mind Share (media buying agency), WPP and MTV and this has propelled the company into the radar of three of the top media buying agencies in Europe. No wonder that names like SONY, Volvo, Diageo and Heineken form part of Adwalker's recurring client base. The last few months has been particularly crucial to this Ofex newbie as it has announced two global agreements - one with Poster Publicity (global media buying advisor) which introduces Adwalker to PP's client list and the second with Xybernaut - a technology company that creates the Adwalker suit, exclusively for Adwalker. In the next few weeks, 100 Adwalker kits will be in the market and ready to use.

The product

An Adwalker suit comprises the key elements required for direct marketing - an internet enabled screen with keyboard/touch pad, a credit card machine, the facility to print off coupons and of course a personalised element which a stand alone touch screen kiosk is not able to provide. We spoke to Bill Kinley, CEO of MindShare who confirmed that media buying agencies have used Adwalker as a test product with their blue chip clients, and have submitted repeat orders for Adwalker kits. In technical advertising terms, the kit works well as both 'above the line' and 'below the line' medium, the main difference from traditional forms of media and unconventional direct marketing forms of media. Kinley confirms that the main reason blue chip clients would use this medium is because it provides an 'immediate and measurable return on investment'. Campaigns in Ireland have seen the kit being used successfully in pubs for drinks promotions by companies like Coors and by the Irish Government for a public campaign on voting.

Financials and Valuation

It is hard to convince an investor of the potential of an Adwalker kit if he hasn't seen one in action, probably the reason why British investors are suspicious about the company's valuation. The company is capitalised at 13 million, started its OFEX stint at 8p, touched its highest of 20p and is now trades at a more realistic 11.75p.

The company carried out 4 rounds of placing raising EUR 600,000 before the float. And during its short stint on Ofex has carried out a fifth placing raising an additional EUR 315,000. Interim results to June 2004 should confirm that company is doing fine on the cash front and revenues from the Irish campaigns is supplying the company with working capital without the need of another fundraising. Considerable investment has gone towards global roll out and acceleration of the product sales across the world, including setting up of infrastructure and logistics for Adwalker offices. An Adwalker suit can be hired for 500 per day, including of personnel costs. Assuming maximum utilisation, the company could in an ideal situation bring in revenues of 130 x 365 x 500 pounds per annum but that is clearly not realistic. The company has just invested in 130 kits, bought from Xybernaut using funds from the initial placing. In the first quarter results to March 2004, the company announced a small loss of EUR 11,747. The company has a monthly cash burn of around EUR 50,000.

Adwalker is hoping to target a market worth 17 billion and it only needs a small amount of market share to bring in significant profits. We forecast a December 2004 earnings figure of about EUR300,000 on sales of EUR 1.3 million. Recent developments increasing Adwalker's presence internationally might cause these figures to drop just a bit, but investors can be rest assured that it will be compensated by a substantial increase in sales in the year to December 2005. So, the stock could easily bring in say EUR 1 million pre-tax in the year to December 2005 on a turnover of EUR 2.5 million, putting the stock on a 2005 PE of 19 - but the prospects of rapid bottom line growth from 2006 onwards are far from discounted in such a rating. Crisp says that with US and UK and 2 Asia Pacific territories fully operational, 'revenues should be higher, much higher'.

Risks and Future Potential
The only risk we foresee is another outfit inventing similar technology providing media buyers with an alternative to the Adwalker kit but Crisp assures us that barrier to entry is the 2 year time frame to develop anything as complicated as what Adwalker currently provides.

On 20th September, the company opens its London office, sometime in October US operations should begin sending out the kits and December should see the Hong Kong offices fully operational along with a few orders for the packs. We believe the technology is revolutionary, the media buyers are sold on the concept and Adwalker already has a list of repeat customers for its product. With interims round the corner, there is a chance that news flow will be reflected in the price rise. As Crisp says, investors are buying into future realisable potential and we believe if this takes off, the upside could be enormous. Buy now at 11.75p.

cheers Gf.

Interesting info, thanks GF.

Tell you what apple every time I look at that piece on medical marketing the more I get interested. Does look to have excelent potential, Im tempted, very tempted.

cheers Gf.

This one could be a quicker recovery than they think up 15p at lunch time................................

Shrewd Tip: top investors back dynamic Aero
Published: 10:07 Fri 27 Aug 2004

By Algernon Craig Hall, Secret Buying Correspondent
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Shrewd investors are beginning to warm to former AIM wonder stock Aero Inventory, which ran into problems last year.

Aero (AI.) provides online procurement of aerospace parts to repair and maintenance firms. Its growth has been rapid and it has signed up a number of the industry's big players as clients since it came to market in 2000. However, the final six months of last year presented its shareholders with a raft of disappointments.


Aero's interim results for the six months to the end of 2003 were hit by rising overheads, contract delays, US dollar weakness and the impact of SARs (severe acute respiratory syndrome) on demand from an important Asian customer.


The catalogue of woes has taken the shares from a 2003 470p high to a today's year low of 290p down 2.5p on the day.


The share price performance paints the picture of a thoroughly unloved stock but a number shrewd investors have actually shown renewed interest in Aero recently.


AAA-rated contrarian investor Patrick Evershed picked up 70,000 shares in July for the New Star Select Opportunities fund New Star Select Opportunities, which took its holding to 250,000 or 1.6% of the 46 million company.


Gartmore's star smaller companies stock picker Gervais Williams has also been buying recently. He has bought 10,000 shares so far this month to take the Gartmore UK & Irish unit trust's Gartmore UK & Irish Small Companies holding to 470,000.


Framlington star Brian Watson has a 450,000 share holding in the Framlington Innovative Growth investment trust (FIT).


The underlying state of the business does not seem as bad as recent trading suggests.

External factors have been at the root of a number of the company's problems especially the SARs epidemic, US dollar's weakness and delays to a big contract caused by an external union dispute.


Unfortunately there is the chance tough conditions could persist.


SARs may no longer be in the headlines but a lagged effect on aircraft maintenance could continue to subdue Aero's business with HAECO - linked to Cathay Pacific - in Asia. Another negative is the high oil price, which could cause delays to repair and maintenance spending and could possibly mean fewer flights.


Although there are reasons to be wary, much of Aero's recent plight was down to its reliance on the contract with HAECO.


Aero now has three very significant contracts - with HAECO, SR Technics and FLS Aerospace - which should strengthen the group's resilience once they get up and running. The company also continues to win new business.


When Aero's large contracts kick in next year they should have a marked effect on revenue and profit.


Brokers' consensus forecasts suggest turnover has fallen by 6.6 million to 22.5 million in the year to the end of June 2004 but should jump to 47 million in the current year. Profit before tax in the year just gone is predicted to fall by about 600,000 to 2.25 million before leaping in the current year to 8.25 million as delayed big contracts kick in.


The shares are valued at 28 times forecasts for the year just gone and 7.8 times next year's earnings if the group, despite the difficulties, Aero can meet expectations.

Aero has to build up large levels of stock to support new contracts, which makes growth very cash intensive and to date it has relied on share issues to support its expansion. However, the group has recently extended its borrowing facilities from 10 million to 25 million, which should ensure it can take on new business without issuing shares at the current depressed price.


Full year results are expected on 13 September and should meet expectations despite continued weak trading over the final three months of the year. The weakness has been mitigated by profits from the active trading of inventory held by the group.


Aero appears to still have some difficulties but the longer-term picture is encouraging.


The forthcoming results should give shareholders a better view of how the company is faring but there are unlikely to be many positive surprises. Still shrewd investors appear happy to pay the current price for a company that has made such impressive inroads into its market and should benefit once current troubles are over.


It looks like a good time to tuck some shares away for investors not afraid to take a long term view and possibly suffer a knock following the results. For others Aero looks like a good candidate for the watch list.ENDS

Cheers Gf

Heres an interesting snippet from Robbie Burns, a trip down memory lane.........

I had a right laugh on the bank holiday I was clearing out some stuff, as you do, and came across some old copies of Investors Chronicle and Shares Magazine from early 2000.

Remember those days? Ah, those lovely days when you could buy a share for 40p and see it soar to a tenner for no reason at all.

Looking back at these mags is a scream and a reminder that analysts and tipsters nearly all talk crap!

In the May editions as tech stocks started to go down, tipsters and brokers were all urging punters to Buy on weakness.

Im taking BT trading at 1100p! Bskyb at 1700p! Arm 716p! And the king of the lot Baltimore at. 7610p!!!

How about this on Thus from Shares Mag Goldman Sachs reiterates its buy stand on Thus at 340p. Goldmans target price is 700p

At this time Thus was still a loss maker and the PE was 3,200! Share price now? 15p!

Remember Energis which went bust? Its share price was 2964p despite the fact it was losing money.

What on earth was going on? And why didnt we just short the lot of them and make our millions? I cant remember except I know I bought some of these dud shares.

I was lucky though on a whim I bought 20,000 of Scoot.com at 50p and sold at 220p for a massive profit!

Of course I made some losses as well but I came out of the ridiculous tech boom with a profit of around 60,000 all made tax free in peps.

The magazines tip all kind of rubbish and the tipsters and analysts cant seem to realize these companies were worth nothing at all in some cases.

Oh well, enjoyed that trip down memory lane! Back to 2004 where life is a bit more tricky! Some good gains for my lot today.

cheers Gf.

Our eyes are open when it suits us to see.

Excelent snippet Scripophilist. One to bear in mind for everyone.

cheers GF.

Interesting snippet, beware Goldfinger/Oliverteftwingtwit/Slater/Katie Price and about 300 other aliases across all the bulletin boards you care to mention.

Dunbarton = CrazyWomen from ShareCrazy, posts under several alias on every board on the net, squelched.


Latest tips from Growth company investor...................


Slimma - SPECULATIVE BUY
Rotten summer weather has caused Slimma to put out a profits warning. The ladies clothing designer and manufacturer was expected to produce a healthy increase in pre-tax profits from 390,000 to 1.4m for the year to September, but the poor weather affect.......

02/09/2004
Inditherm - HOLD
Prospects are warming up at Inditherm, the heating technology outfit that grabbed the headlines over the summer with its 775,000 contract installing under-pitch heating at Chelsea FC's new academy and training ground. This followed

cheers GF.

Somewhere in a drawer I still have some of those overpriced shares--hoping to find in 10 years time I've made up some of the losses!! Any news on AFE anyone?

Hi moneyplus, there is some news re AFE on the gold and mining thread if you go back a page or two.

cheers GF. Ps, re to those overpriced shares I bought Baltimore at just under 3 a share and sold them at 79 a share I made just under 898,000 but could have made well over a million if I had stayed in a little longer drat. Im bragging now LOL.

Dont ask me what mine are worth--they'll be a tax loss when I make all the lovely gains I hope for this year!! Lucky you!

I got out on time MP just before xmas in 2000. I was lucky very lucky.

Anyway heres tonights after hours from the US for the early birds in the morning.................................

AFTER HOURS

American Eagle up on outlook boost

By Christopher Noble, CBS MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 6:37 PM ET Sept. 1, 2004
E-mail it | Print | Discuss | Alert | Reprint | RSS

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Shares in American Eagle Outfitters rose in evening trading Wednesday after the teen clothing retailer boosted its quarterly profit targets, while oil industry services provider Veritas DGC tumbled after it delayed its earnings release.

The Nasdaq 100 After Hours Indicator, which tracks evening trading in the index's leading shares, fell 0.18 points to 1,377.78.

American Eagle (AEOS: news, chart, profile) rose 4.7 percent after it said it expects higher third-quarter earnings of 56 cents to 58 cents a share, ahead of its earlier outlook of 47 cents. Analysts, according to Thomson First Call, forecast a profit of 49 cents a share.

The retailer also said it will pay a quarterly dividend of 6 cents, payable on Oct. 8. For the month of August, same-store sales rose 23.9 percent from last year. See full story.

Veritas DGC (VTS: news, chart, profile) dropped 18 percent after it said it was delaying its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings release and that $1.2 million may have been improperly accounted for. The figure relates to the depreciation of some equipment put in service more than five years ago.

The company now expects to report fourth quarter earnings of 8 cents to 10 cents per share, including the potential impact of the depreciation issue. Analysts had been expecting a profit of 26 cents a share in the period. See full story.

Music theme clothing company Hot Topic (HOTT: news, chart, profile) climbed 1.2 percent after the company reported sales at stores open more than a year tumbled 8.7 percent in August but that overall sales climbed 8 percent to $66.6 million from net sales of $61.5 million for August 2003.

Shares of Skillsoft (SKIL: news, chart, profile) rose 2.5 percent after the e-learning specialist reported second-quarter earnings of 1 cent per share on sales of $50.6 million and reaffirmed its financial targets for the coming quarters and 2005. Earnings were below estimates for a 3 cent per share profit, but sales were ahead of predictions for $50.2 million. See full story.

Direct marketer Alloy (ALOY: news, chart, profile) fell 22 percent after it reported a loss of 27 cents per share, wider than the 12-cent loss predicted by two analysts. Sales of $86.6 million were also below forecasts for $91 million. See full story.

Earlier, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 5.46 points lower at 10,168.46 while the technology heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 12.31 points to 1,850.41 as a new surge in the price of oil to over $44 per barrel weighed on blue chips and capped gains on the Nasdaq. See full story.

Corinthian Colleges (COCO: news, chart, profile), which rose 23 percent in the regular session, fell 0.9 percent after the bell. The company earlier reported earnings that beat lowered Wall Street expectations. See full story.

Biotechnology concerns SuperGen (SUPG: news, chart, profile) and MGI Pharma (MOGN: news, chart, profile), which rose sharply in the regular session, remained active after the bell. SuperGen climbed 0.1 percent while MGI fell 1.3 percent. The shares rose earlier after the two companies agreed to jointly develop SuperGen's cancer drug, Dacogen. See full story.


Christopher Noble is a reporter for CBS MarketWatch in San Francisco.



cheers Gf

Shrewd Snapshot: Activists get trading
Published: 07:30 Thr 2 Sept 2004

By Algernon Craig Hall, Secret Buying Correspondent
Email to a friend

Activist investors have provided the meat for today's Snapshot with trades in Avanti Capital and Lok 'n' Store.

* Shareholder activist Laxey Partners has increased its holding in investment company Avanti Capital (AVA). Laxey bought 75,000 shares to take its holding to 1.2 million or 20.4% of the 14.6 million firm.


Avanti is an interesting vehicle with a large investment in the pubs sector as well as investments in an internet service provider and SMS text messaging business.


At the interim stage Avanti reported an NAV of 198p per share and has 19.1 million worth of tax loss waiting to be utilised.


The shares closed up 5.5p at 141.5p.


* Activist investor North Atlantic Smaller Companies (NAS) has sold 100,000 shares in self-storage group Lok 'n' Store (LOK) to leave it with 1.75 million, which is just less than 7% of the 14.6 million company.


The company, which is to report full year results at the start of next month, is one of the few self-storage companies yet to be taken private.


The shares closed flat yesterday at 112p.

cheers GF.

SHARES MAGAZINE


Hot Stocks in Sizzling Sector
* Corus - Xstrata - Alcan- Hiscox - Berkshire Hathaway - Amlin.


Plays of the Week
* Buy Warner Chilcott and Lastminute.com.


Updates
* Buy Superscape - Cenes and Xstrata. Keep short in Countrywide

cheers GF

Anyone in the pubs sector, tomorrow could be an interesting day..........

Last orders for pubs sector
Stockwatch, This Is Money
31 August 2004

T'S getting close to last orders for those traders watching the pubs sector, as Friday sees the release of some important sector results.

Greene King holds its AGM while JD Wetherspoon is reporting full-year figures. Although both companies have surfed the up wave of the past 18 months, recent share price fortunes couldn't be more different.


JD's April high of 320p signalled the end of the 14-month bull trend and the subsequent technical breakdown led JD to drop to current levels of 238p. The current bear phase looks likely to continue, however, because some traders will undoubtedly be emptying their glasses prior to Fridays announcement.

Resistance for this bear move sits at 255p, so the JD hangover will not subside until the price breaks up above this level.

Greene King's story is rosy by comparison. A recent peak above 1130p has been followed by some softness to current levels of 1040p. But the bull-trend remains intact. at present, the share price sits comfortably within its bull channel with technical resistance sitting at the 1100p area and support sitting at the 950p level.

With their glasses charged, traders are poised for Fridays pubs sector results, with the general sentiment skewed towards being long Greene King and short JD Wetherspoon.

For those pair traders amongst you this may well be a trade to hold until these conflicting technical patterns ferment.

However, we need to throw caution to the wind when facing fundamental announcements, so for those who have had this pair on, to take some profits may not really be such a bad thing.


In the meantime good luck and cheers.

cheers GF.

Anyone like share perks, this is interesting.................

MARKET COMMENT
Britain's Perkiest Retailers

By David Kuo (TMFDragon)
September 1, 2004


Marks & Spencer (LSE: MKS) has, in the past, always maintained that shareholder perks disadvantage its institutional shareholders and ISA holders. However, last week there was a change of heart by the directors of the venerable retailer.

As a reward to loyal shareholders who helped scupper the recent hostile takeover bid by Philip Green, M&S has mailed money-off vouchers to its army of investors. M&S said it will reward shareholders next year too, though whether the perk will match this year's gift of 20.50 has yet to be decided.

M&S is not the only high street retailer to offer shareholder perks. Here are some other well-known shopkeepers that offer perks too.

At Austin Reed (LSE: ARD) investors holding 500 ordinary shares can apply for a 15% discount card which can be used on full-price merchandise. The cards are valid at either its Austin Reed or Country Casuals outlets. Not to be outdone, all Moss Bros (LSE: MOSB) shareholders are entitled to a 20% discount through a voucher exchangeable against a number of items on one transaction.

Department store Beale (LSE: BAE) offers anyone holding 2,500 shares a 10% discount on purchases of up to 5,000. However, eligible shareholders must have a company account to participate. Iceland owner, Big Food Group (LSE: BFP), is almost as generous, though it caps its 10% discount to just 160 worth of purchases. Shareholders can also visit any local branch of Booker Cash & Carry.

Tesco (LSE: TSCO) shareholders can expect a small gift such as a bottle of wine, but only if they attend the AGM! Thornton (LSE: THT) shareholders can expect to receive discount vouchers worth 34 with their annual report. Those investors who turn up for the AGM will also have an opportunity to purchase discounted chocolates.

For those who prefer to do their shopping from the comfort of their armchair, home shopping specialist N Brown Group (LSE: BWNG) gives all shareholders the chance to order from its catalogues at a discount of 20%. Meanwhile, Mothercare (LSE: MTC), shareholders can choose to spend their 10% discount vouchers either in-store or via the catalogue.

Other retailers that offer shareholder discount include Dobbies Garden Centres (LSE: DCG), jewellers Signet (LSE: SIG), House of Fraser (LSE: HOF) and the perfume vendor Merchant Retail Group (LSE: MRT).

I believe perks can be a wonderful bonus for shareholders. They can also make owing shares that bit more interesting. However, perks should always be seen as an additional benefit to your investment. In my view, the best shareholder perk is continued growth at the company, and this should always outweigh any token gift that companies dish out for your continued loyalty.

cheers GF.

MMG and Avanti all in mothballs! Looks as though I might see my money back or maybe some profit-fingers crossed.

From growth company investor...................


Floors 2 Go - BUY
Wood and laminate flooring retailer Floors 2 Go, which listyerd omn AOIM in June, has produced impressive maiden interim results with operating profits before goodwill amortisation, interest and tax surging 314% to 2.9m on turnover rising 124% to 34.9m........
02/09/2004

Tikit - ADD
Last month we urged readers to buy into Tikit, the legal IT play and Growth Company Investor recommendation at 80p a share. This proved wise counsel since Tikit has just romped home with sparkling interims to June, ahead of City expectations, and the trad.......

cheers GF.

Ah caught him out, the Black Prince aka Colin Blackbourn sneeked this in at the very end of the day, now 3% plus of Telspec............

Telspec PLC
02 September 2004


SCHEDULE 10

NOTIFICATION OF MAJOR INTERESTS IN SHARES

1. Name of company

TELSPEC PLC

2. Name of shareholder having a major interest

COLIN BLACKBOURN

3. Please state whether notification indicates that it is in respect of holding
of the shareholder named in 2 above or in respect of a non-beneficial interest
or in the case of an individual holder if it is a holding of that person's
spouse or children under the age of 18

SEE 2 ABOVE

4. Name of the registered holder(s) and, if more than one holder, the number of
shares held by each of them

Not stated

5. Number of shares / amount of stock acquired

Not stated

6. Percentage of issued class

N/a

7. Number of shares / amount of stock disposed



8. Percentage of issued class



9. Class of security

ORD 25p

10. Date of transaction

Not stated

11. Date company informed

2 September 20004

12. Total holding following this notification

1,250,000

13. Total percentage holding of issued class following this notification

3.09%

14. Any additional information


15. Name of contact and telephone number for queries

Telspec plc tel: +44 (0) 1634 662 500

16. Name and signature of authorised company official responsible for making
this notification


Date of notification

2 September 2004

The FSA does not give any express or implied warranty as to the accuracy of this
document or material and does not accept any liability for error or omission.
The FSA is not liable for any damages (including, without limitation, damages
for loss of business or loss of profits) arising in contract, tort or otherwise
from the use of or inability to use this document, or any material contained in
it, or from any action or decision taken as a result of using this document or
any such material.



This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

cheers Gf.

An interesting note here from Brokers Killik on Carphone Wharehouse.........

CARPHONE WAREHOUSE Company meeting



We had a useful update meeting with Charles Dunstone of Carphone Warehouse last night. A few bullet points of interest.



The market for mobile handsets is becoming significantly more competitive. At the turn of the turn of the decade, around 40 new GSM handsets were launched in one year. This year, that number will have grown to nearly 140. Consumers have never had so much choice and confusion



Carphones independence holds it in good stead. With seven network operators in the UK, few people would want to take a tariff quote from each to decide who to go with. An independent can carve through much of the literature with no particular axe to grind.

Consumers are changing handsets faster as they are driven by fashion trends. Anecdotally, the market penetration has not grown yet handset sales are up 20%. This is good news for the group.



The talktalk fixed line service is the number one alternative competitor to British Telecom taking 40% of all customers switching away from that organization. By owning the network, and having a low cost of customer acquisition (15 versus 35-40 for alternative providers), they have significant margin advantage.



They will shortly be announcing a broadband initiative which may prove disruptive on pricing for the market but will provide greater lock in for the customer.



Much has been made about the high level of churn in talktalk of around 20%. Broadly, this happens in the first couple of weeks where a customer has signed up has had a rethink. Once that period has passed, the churn is more akin to the mobile sector at around 2% and a move to wholesale access where only one bill is issued for calls made and the line rental may well reduce this further.



Conclusion



Little new information came out from the presentation, but you feel that Dunstone and his team are in extremely confident form with regards to current trading. The stock cannot be described as cheap on 17x earnings dropping to 13x for next year but certainly a must have for long term growth portfolios.

cheers GF.

INVESTORS CHRONICLE

The Cover Story:
*Freebies, perks and discounts - are you claiming your?

Tips:
*Buy Hilton Group (HG.L) at 261p - Telecom Plus (TEP.L) at 250p - Sondex (SDX.L) at 223p - Brandon Hire (BDH.L) at 127p - Abingdon Capital (ANC.L) at 11.75p - Victoria Oil and Gas (VOG.L) at 28p.

Updates:
*Buy Churchill China (CHH.L).
*Sell Enterprise Inns (ETI.L).
*Daily Mail & General Trust (DMGO.L) fairly priced.

Company Results:
*Buy James Fisher (FSJ.L) - Michelmersh Brick (MBH.L) - John Laing (LNGO.L).
*Sell Rentokil Initial (RTO.L).

cheers GF.

DAILY EXPRESS
*Suggestions that Havelock Europa (HVE.L) is trading ahead of expectations.
*Rumours that Chaco Resources (CHP.L) is close to a deal.

Who's Dealing:
*Non-Exec takes maiden stake in Mitie Group (MTO.L).

Share Whisper:
*Talk that Anglo Pacific (APF.L) could be involved in financing a lucrative mining venture.

cheers Gf.

and a buy! First the buy and thats 18,000 shares at 34.85p in Netstore (NES). Why did I buy?

Well, I liked the look of the company earlier this year and kept it on my watch list. Its been sitting for quite a while not doing much.
From Robbie Burns, I beleive his pick below is full of cash, I will report back this weekend and inform.



However I noticed two things today first a big buy of 300,000 going in at around 11am this morning.

And secondly its due to report soon and Im taking a gamble judged on previous reports that itll be a good one.

The company has won a few decent contracts, its market cap is low and if things are going well, it looks cheap.

This one is not without risks these kinds of companies could always surprise with a warning but I think the risk/reward ratio looks good, and Im hoping for a 20% increase. Stop loss is 30p, target 43p.

cheers GF.

great thread Gf. goal.

anyone follow the robbie burns tips?

Lee yes me, and apple many thanks, but please use this thread no matter what.


If you think you have some info that will help others please bang it down here no matter what.

Lets face it we work as a commmunity to help each other out.

cheers GF.

Myself and a number of colleagues who work in the packaging industry have our fingers crossed that Stanelco will take-off soon following their packaging patent. It has huge potential as it could reduce costs and packaging waste at the same time. Once the retailers understand this (and they are involved) they could and possibly will specify the type of system used which gives meat packers two choices, use conventional system with higher energy costs and waste or invest in this system and benefit from the savings,no doubt with retailers taking a share!
In the background is a court case with BPRG over a patent for use RF technology for producing gel capsules, but with so many things happening it will not be the end of the world if defeated but if they win?
DYOR

Cheers Andy, now thats the kind of info we want on this thread.

Well done and lets have more.

cheers GF.

From Killiik Brokers this morning...........

VANCO Siemens contract



Ahead of interim results due next week, Vanco has served up another good contract win. This time it is with Siemens which demonstrates that this smaller virtual network provider can pull in the big names. The contract is worth Euro4.3 million over three years, which in itself would be considered small. However, as we have said before, initial contract sizes are no guide to future revenue potential and this is a first class win from which will add to the momentum we have seen coming from this group. We shall comment further next week.



cheers GF

Shrewdies detect recovery at Babcock

Published: 08:22 Mon 6 Sept 2004
By Patrick Sherwen, Deputy & Secret Buying Editor
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Three top investors have backed Babcock International to come good after the engineering group's recent turbulent history which has witnessed the long drawn out takeover of Peterhouse and big redundancies in its Rosyth dockyard.

The 240 million support services company works primarily with public sector institutions, such as Network Rail, the Royal Navy and the Royal Air Force. It is split into four business divisions in the UK and overseas operations in Africa and the US. Three quarters of the 452 million turnover last year derived from the UK, after which Africa was the next most important market accounting for 18%.


The Rosyth job losses were announced in late July and drew much criticism from trades unions. They were bad news for the employees, and for Gordon Brown who is MP for that constituency, but are likely to benefit shareholders by lowering the cost base and increasing efficiency. They also followed less bitter news that the company had won contracts worth 13 million to refit four Royal Navy warships.


New Star's AA-rated fund manager Stephen Whittaker clearly has a positive view of these developments as he was buying shares for his UK Growth fund this week. He added 70,000 shares to the holding to take it to a little more than 2 million or 0.97% of the company. The price around this time was 115p, at which they are valued at an attractive 9.22 times forecast earnings for 2005 and 8.5 times forecasts for 2006.


His equally rated rival Paul Mumford has also bought in the last month or so, adding 20,000 shares to Cavendish Asset Management's stake in late July to take it to 965,000. AAA-rated Henry Maxey of Ruffer Investment Management holds 400,000 shares in the Equity & General fund after buying in June.


* This article also appears in today's Financial Mail on Sunday

cheers GF.

From the Midas column This Is Money...........................

Costain, the building company that delivered

a rise of more than a third in its interim profits to 8.1m last week. It also has a juicy couple of water utility projects that could be worth 350m over five years.


Rated a buy at 35 1/2p in January, the shares ended Friday at 42 1/4p, but with further progress expected this year and a renewed intention to resume dividends next year, the shares trade at just above ten times forecast earnings and should be bought.

cheers Gf

From tonights Growth Company Investor..............


Bond International Software - STRONG BUY
Revitalised recruitment and human resources software play Bond powered home with excellent interims to June, as UK and US markets improved. Pre-tax profits leapt 359% to 711,000 on a 26% sales jump to 4.24m, with sales rising across the board in the UK .......

06/09/2004
Teleunit SpA - SPECULATIVE BUY
Italian communications concern Teleunit, the first Italian company to be quoted on a London exchange, offered up solid, if unspectacular, maiden interim results. Although turnover was down 5.6% to 5m (17m), this was actually a strong performance as a p.......
06/09/2004

WSP - BUY
WSP has been appointed as the biggest structural engineer for the Freedom Tower in New York, the 1,776-foot skyscraper that will rise as the centrepiece of rebuilding at the World Trade Center site. This prestigious award, which will be worth about 5m to.......


cheers GF.

Morning note from Killik Brokers.............

Insurance stocks are moving higher following Amlins report yesterday and BRITs today. The hurricanes in Florida causing billions of pounds of damage are expected to extend the firm pricing environment at least for another year. Benfield reports tomorrow and the stock has been a firm market from a low base on good volume. Call your broker for a copy of our research note on this stock.

cheers GF

Recent BUY note out from Hoodless.......................

CARBO 11p Speculative Buy
Broker: WH Ireland Listing: AIM
Sector: Engineering & Machinery Market Cap: 6.6m
Reuters: CAB Year High/Low: 17.5/10.5p
Website: www.angloabrasives.com Next Results: Interims Oct
New shareholders have the chance of becoming involved at a potentially highly rewarding stage of Carbos
redevelopment. As mMuch of the re-engineering is completed this could well be the last funding before the
group returns to profitability.
Jan m 02 03 04
Turnover 64.19 56.09 52.6
Op. Loss -7.76 -7.54 -6.9
Interest -2.24 -0.66 -1.0
Loss PBT -10.00 -4.49 -8.0
EPS (p) -6p -54.9 -95.2
P/E - - -
Strengths
The turnover may bottom out at 50m and as much
has already been done to align cost, this leaves
plenty of recovery potential
Owner of a portfolio of strong and durable brands,
with capacity for increased production.
It is one of only two companies in the world
producing coated and bonded abrasives.
Banks have agreed a refinancing package worth up
to 9.5m and the loan notes have been converted
New management team lead by Lord Hodgson are
investing 1.2m and are being support by a trading
investor taking (0.5m) 14% of the issue,
Weaknesses
Mature market and the manufacturing plant is in
Europe.
At the last yearend losses were 7.5m and there
were 820 employees.
Recent lack of working capital impacted on last
years results.
Business Background
Carbo supplies high quality abrasive products
throughout the world under various brand names.
These products are used in a wide variety of industries
including: automotive, aerospace, metal work,
furniture, cutlery, valves, power tools, hand tools and
tobacco production.
The Group also owns Anglo Abrasives, which is one
of the UKs largest distributors of abrasive products,
with branches located throughout the country. There
are subsidiaries across Europe in Germany, Belgium,
Norway, Italy, Portugal, France. The manufacturing
units are located in Germany, Italy and the UK and
this is in the process of being further rationalised. The
high capital investment in machinery for bonded
products forms a barrier to entry and trends to create
pressures towards joint ventures. There are
opportunities to outsource some of the product range
to cheaper production centres.
Market Opportunity
The Europe and USA market for coated and bonded
abrasive products is worth an estimated $5.5bn The
range of industries is extremely wide from aerospace
to hypodermic needles through construction to razor
blades. Carbo are in the process of revitalizing existing
distribution channels and looking towards the higher
margin sectors.
Product Portfolio
Carbo is one of only two major companies distributing
a full range of abrasives. Coated Abrasives are cloth
and paper backed, Bonded Abrasives are grinding
wheels and CBN/Diamond are grinding wheels for
industrial applications. The brand names include
Carborundum, Anglo Abrasives and BMA.
The 3.5m funds raised will be used to complete the
rationalisation of the Group, which includes projects
in both Germany and the UK.
In Germany, they will complete the already
announced head count reduction programme, which
aims to save E2.8m (1.9m) in the first full year. They
will introduce a new IT system and the rationalisation
of the product range by eliminating duplicates. This
will dramatically reduce the number of manufactured
products by two thirds and will, in turn, facilitate the
streamlining of the sales and administration functions.
Activities Market Financials
Manufacture and sale of industrial
abrasives
Market Makers: 4
Bid/Offer: 9-12p (25%)
NMS: 10,000 Screen : 25,000
No Shrs: (59.6m )
Debt: 1.8m
NAV: Negative
Increase working Capital 1.2m

In the UK, the entire operation at Trafford Park will
be relocated to a smaller area of the current site with
the balance of the land being released to the
freeholder.
Current Clients
There is a long list of international blue chip clients
the biggest of which is Daimler Chrysler with 1% of
turnover. Clients include Phillips, Rover, Rolls
Royce, Gillett and Siemens.
There are three main competitors: Saint Gobain, SAI
and Naxoflex and joint manufacturing arrangement
are being negotiated with SAI.
Operations
The key to the groups operational performance is to
have enough working capital to purchase raw
materials supplies. The evidence of the improved
working capital management is that cash flow from
operations has increased substantially and the recent
funding will alleviate the financing constraint.
Country Operations review
Italy. BMA has now been refinanced. Sales and
production efficiencies are starting to rise as the
company's reputation in the market place begins to
return. There is no reason why this company should
not now be able to earn a decent return.
United Kingdom. Last year the focus was on
eliminating the losses in the UK. The Razor and
Rubber manufacturing operation in Manchester has
responded well to increased management focus.
Output is up and, though small, the operation is
nicely profitable. Anglo, the distribution business, has
closed further three depots and made other cost
reductions. As market reputation begins to improve
sales have stabilised so therefore a return to profits is
anticipated.
The focus has to be on reorganising the German
operations and the implementation of new
management structures to replace the hierarchal
structure more appropriate of an old fashioned
manufacturing company. Given the restrictions of
Germany's labour laws all this has taken time to
achieve, but is now well underway.
Senior Directors
Lord Hodgson Chairman ( Robin Granville) former
financier and owner of Granville Baird.
Jean-Louis Moatti is a director of Cemom SA in
France, Ekament AB in Sweden, Ekamant Polska and
Polsoft Spzoo, both in Poland. He is also a major
investor in Carbo plc.
Financials
The recent placing raised 3.2m, which funds the
companys working capital as well as providing 2m
capital for German expansion with 0.3m to complete
UK reorganisation After the conversion of debt into
equity earlier this year this has de-geared the
company, removed all current debt and strengthened
the balance sheet.
Recommendation
At an operational level the recovery is well underway
and we expect that this will soon be translated into a
visible improvement in earnings performance. As
well as recovery prospects corporate actions can also
be anticipated. Speculative Buy
Analyst: Jon Levinson August 04
KEY RECENT EVENTS INCLUDE
1991
2002
Oct 2003
July 2004
Acquired by Hopkinson Group
New team took control
Refinancing of debt & Restructuring
Issue of Equity 3.2m at 10p
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Year End Jan
Interims Oct
Finals June
MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS INCLUDE (%)
Lord Hodgson 17.8
H Fuchs 11,6
P Gyllenhammmar 6.7

cheers GF

GF

Been reading your postings for a few months now and have to say you're certainly on the ball. The only problem I have is that you cover such a large range of stocks which I can't keep up with. If I asked you to list your top 5 short, mediun and long term what would they be?

Regards
Mickeyskint

Hi Mickey, I normally go for long termers so I would be looking at,

Hamworthy
Bischi
Pipex
Anglo and Pacific
Merchant Retail

More or less in that order.

Of course it doesnt always work out as youd wish and some long termers become either short termers or medium termers depending on circumstances.

Best to cut losses quickly if they start to impact, I never average down but do buy in tranches upwards and also sell that way.

Please remember I do not own stock outlined on this thread they are just ideas that may interest others.

Hope you have a good day cheers GF.

GF

Many thanks

Mickeyskint

mes amities RE; GF's somewhat amusing jog down memory lane brought a wry smile to my face .As for my own personal favourite gaff of the hi tec daze, which determined the INANE ethos by which stock was valued , was Paul Kavanagh of Killicks waxing lyrical about Kewill systems which at the time were trading at 19,76 , and he dogmatically stated a more true and fair value was 60-00 !!!! ,,, .lndeed Paul . .Currently trading @ 60 odd pence . c'etait un coup de tete. Il n'a pas encore compris le truc .. Although Balt tec were the real king of the 99% club , my personal favourite was Vocalis . One day it was trading at 300p and i went for a drink at lunchtime and by the time i came back it was 1100p .........Happy daze for some; a nightmare still being paid off by more..ALL of which illustrates that the VAST majority of analyists are no better than the hacks telling you which horse will win the 2-30 at Newmarket . ln Public they dance to one tune ; ln private they sing to quite a diffeent tune . PPJ

I had a great time TFC. I think my favourite was Aortech, my father had died the previous year through a heart attack so I thought well ill have a few bob in a good cause at 34p. Latter that day they made an RNS something about stents I think and within 3 days they were 10 plus.

Bring those days back I say.

cheers GF.

GF

Where do you pitch you stop losses 10% 20%.
Mine are at 5-7.5% which I think might be a bit tight. Any pointers would be great. I just hate loosing money so I tend to jump at the least little thing. I am better than I use to be 2.5% was once my point of exit.

MS

Hi Mickey, I dont use stop losses any more I just by instinct know when to sell through experience (been in this business over 20 years now and still learning).

I used to use 15% in my earlier days, I would have thought the figure you are using is indeed too tight and if you have computerised triggers I am sure you will be outed way before you would have wished to get out.

cheers GF.

From Killiks morning notes...................



News in brief



When results are flowing through thick and fast, in the interests of time, we look to cover more of the stocks in brief.



Woolworths announces a first half loss some 5% lower than last year at 33 million. The group makes all of its money at Christmas as demonstrated by the 80 million profit forecast for the full year. These results are in line but trends are hard to establish. Certainly, operating margin improvements are encouraging as the group gets to grips with its security problem and the new Big W format comes through. On 11x earnings, not expensive.



Helphire, the claims handling business for the motor insurance industry, reports trade in line. Expectations are high for some serious growth from this organization but the move to new offices is showing the group is capable of a big leap in growth. No comment is provided on the potential acquisition of Albany Insurance.



WS Atkins reported strong progress last night at its AGM due to better than expected operating margin growth. The stock price of Atkins was as low as 50p last year but has recovered to 680p as management reacted to trading problems swiftly. Profits for the year are expected to hit 67 million according to the top of the range Bridgewell Securities for a price earnings ratio of 15 dropping to 13 for next year. The recovery in the stock price appears to have run its course for now.



Market gossip suggests that Countryside Properties is worth a look. The Cherry family has announced that they are reviewing the potential of a Management Buy Out which has carried the stock up from 220p to 275p. However, this may pave the way for others to take a look at the assets. Indications are that assets are worth well in excess of 300p, possibly as high as 350p. The shares have upside potential but are not without risk if the Cherry family decides to pull out.



Hardman Resources trade slightly lower today after gains yesterday as the Woodside Petroleum boss ( the lead partner in the Mauritania drilling program) cooled expectations for the first drill. The first well (Dorade) is perceived as high risk and of course, should they hit a dry well, this will upset sentiment. These comments are sensible rather than a forecast to lower expectations. As we heard recently with the attempted political overthrow, Woodside do paint a very conservative picture in their statements. Whilst the ride will be rocky, we remain excited by the prospect in Mauritania and finance and rigs are ready for a $100 million 21 hole drill program which begins in the next few days.



cheers GF.

Nice to pick up these snippets - as a shareholder in Hardman I bought this as speculative chance. Recent "problem" in Mauritania could have caused some baling, instead opportunity for more buys. With worldwide demand for oil increasing always worth a gamble in this sector with part of portfolio and Hardman looked as good as any as they have more eggs in more baskets than just this, although I think the mauritania looks potentially the most rewarding.

Any thoughts?

If you want to count this as a snippet, there has been a 9.3 Million crossing trade on PTG.

looking into HMY & BISI. Why is the spread so large. If you take this into account plus brokerage and duty the price has to increase 20% before breakeven.
Who fixes the spread? Is it a reflection of the risk or just to keep the tiddlers like me out.

Back to top, any answers anyone?.

cheers GF.

Shrewd Investors

Shrewd Snapshot: If the shoe fits Petchey will wear it
Published: 07:02 Thr 9 Sept 2004


By Algernon Craig Hall, Secret Buying Correspondent
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Motor and property tycoon Jack Petchey bought shares in asset rich shoe retailer Stylo.

* Petchey picked up 1.8 million shares (STYL) to take his holding to 11.4 million or 27.2% of the 30.2 million company.


Trading has been tough for the shoe group and recently worries about the health of high street retailers can not help.


However, there is a redeeming feature for Petchey. Namely the group's extensive property portfolio.


As of the end of January the group had net assets of 49.7 million or 114.8 pence per share. Net debt at the year end stood at a non-threatening 24.2 million.


The shares closed yesterday up 1p at 59.5p

cheers Gf.

SHARES MAGAZINE

15 Tempting Targets:
*Geest (GET.L) - Molins (MLIN.L) - BAE (BA.L) - Dicom (DCM.L) - NSB (NSB.L) - ICM Computers (ICM.L) - John Wood (WG.L) - Hunting (HTG.L) - Hamworthy (HMY.L) - Sondex (SDX.L) - ICI (ICI.L) - BOC (BOC.L) - Elementis (ELM.L) - Croda (CRDA.L) - British Vita (BVIT.L).

Plays of the Week:
*Computerland (CPU.L) (buy) - Bond International (BDI.L) (buy) - Chorion (COR.L) (buy).

Play Updates:
*British Energy (BGY.L) (risky buy) - SDL (SDL.L) (buy) - Ocean Power (OPT.L) (buy) - Melrose Resources (MRS.L) (buy

cheers GF

mickeyskint re to your post above, this may help...............

The role of the market maker

A market maker runs a shop and investors buy shares from him or sell them back to him. The rules for SEAQ stocks insist that all share transactions must go through a market maker.

The market makers act as retailers of shares and display their prices during working hours (8.00-4.30pm). The prices may vary (sometimes considerably) during the day, depending on a number of influences.

For example, if the holder of a very large amount of a share decides to sell (or many holders of small amounts), the market makers will reduce the price they are prepared to pay for the share. The converse is true also; if there is a consistent and large enough demand for a share, then the market makers will increase the price.

Market makers make money from buying shares at a lower price to which they sell them. This is the bid/offer spread. The more actively a share is traded, the more money a market maker makes.

It is often felt that the market makers manipulate the prices. However, market manipulation is an emotive term that conjures up images of shady deals and exploitation. In fact, they are not elusive companies that appear then vanish overnight. They are duty bound to make a market and to meet the needs of those they are responsible to, so to this end they may try to influence the market.

However, market makers are known to lower prices to panic investors into selling, sometimes called shaking the tree. Moving the price up encourages sells, moving it down also encourages sells. The opposite is a dread cat bounce, a false mark-up to catch out all those bottom fishers or falling knife catchers.

One of the myths surrounding market makers is that they take positions in the stocks they quote, the usual cry is the market makers are shorting this stock; thats why the price is going down. Wrong. Market makers make money by churning stocks, not by taking a position. This does not mean that they do not end up with an excess or a shortage of stock but the cost of holding and the risk of being the wrong side does not make commercial sense.

A market maker who is over-exposed to the market is injecting systematic risk to the whole market. If he was to take up many large positions across the whole range of shares he makes a market in, then any market crash would see him bankrupt (a la Nick Leeson and Barings) and therefore unable to make a market. Once the market vanishes, the shares become pretty worthless (if you cannot sell something at any price, what is it worth?). This, in turn, could force other market makers to go bankrupt and the whole thing would lead to a market meltdown.

Consider for one moment an analogy of market makers and bookmakers. They both make a book and in many ways operate in the same fashion. Imagine standing in the betting ring at a racecourse. You look around all the bookings stands and see the horse you want to back being offered at differing prices. You naturally go to they bookie who will offer you the best odds.

Lets say Fred is offering 15-1 on the horse you want to back, whereas the other bookie (Ted & Ned) is on 14-1 or further out. Fred will take your bet at 15-1 and will continue to take other bets until he feels he has taken on enough risk at that price. When his book is full, he will move his price down. Meanwhile, Ted & Ned notice that their prices are not bringing in the business, and move their prices up to equal Freds, or indeed higher, to put themselves on the price. If a bookie takes on too much risk on any one horse, he will lay off the bet among other bookies to share the risks. The whole business is a combination of simple demand/supply economics with a twist of risk.

Market makers work in exactly the same way, moving their prices to encourage buyers and detract sellers and vice versa. Likewise they can partially rebalance their books either by enticing trades by becoming ultra competitive or indeed laying off by selling to another market maker direct.

cheers GF

GF

A great explanation. Thanks very much for that.

Reagrds
Mickeyskint

Goldfinger,

What do you think is going on with Pipex, days and days of buys with sod all movement in the share price, promising results and future and with some sales the price falls rapidly!!!

Do you still predict a good share for the future?

Yes I do Andy. Im beleive Pipex will come good although I have taken my eye off the buys and sells over the last few months.

Short term fluctuations in price dont bother me as I still beleive in the original growth story.

At some time all the dilution that as happened will settle down and we will start to see price rises.

Its just patience that is required, remember this is a business you are investing in and although some look upon it as gambling that is very untrue.

Please just stay cool, you will be rewarded I feel.

cheers GF.

From Growth Company Investor.................


Galliford Try - ADD
Galliford Try, the construction and housebuilding play, is going from strength to strength. Turnover rose 8% to 687m and pre-tax profits were up 32% to 22.7m. Construction provided an operating profit of 4.2m compared to last year's post exceptional lo.......

09/09/2004
A & J Mucklow - REDUCE
West Midlands-based property developer and investor A & J Mucklow produced excellent results for the year to June. Rental income fell from 20.4m to 17.9m but pre-tax profits lifted 34.4% to 13.9m thanks largely to the eight industrial estates and two o.......
09/09/2004

cheers GF.

Morning notes from Killik Brokers..............

News in Brief



Luminar, the bars business had a better August and provides confidence of year end forecasts in a statement out today. Aga Foodservice results are in line with expectations. Ebookers shares trade up 11p to 241p on further thoughts about yesterdays takeover news. BSKYB, highlighted recently as a buy are climbing off the lows of 480p and are back through 500p in early trade. Keep buying.

cheers Gf.

Latest tips from Growth company Investor..................


Oakdene Homes - BUY
Housebuilder Oakdene, offered up a healthy set of maiden interim results. Turnover rose 45% to 7.3m and pre-tax profits clambered 33.5% higher to 2m. Margins also improved from 25.9% to 29.8%. Operating firmly in the south-east of England, the company .......

10/09/2004
Dechra Pharmaceuticals - HOLD
Following a couple of sickly years, veterinary drug venture Dechra looks to have a spring in its step once again. Figures for the year to June revealed record pre-tax profits of 8.1m, lifted 19% from the previous year, on a decent 4% turnover gain to 18.......

10/09/2004
Inter Link Foods - ADD
It's been a busy week for cake manufacturer Inter Link, as it celebrated its 10th anniversary and reshuffled the board. The company's non-executive chairman Jeremy Hamer will become deputy chairman, enabling chief executive Alwin Thompson to step up to th.......


cheers Gf.

Posted about this one before here and it certainly looks worthy of buying or placing on the watch list. Looks a genuine recovery stock after the results today.

Shrewd Tip: top investors back dynamic Aero
Published: 10:07 Fri 27 Aug 2004

By Algernon Craig Hall, Secret Buying Correspondent
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Shrewd investors are beginning to warm to former AIM wonder stock Aero Inventory, which ran into problems last year.

Aero (AI.) provides online procurement of aerospace parts to repair and maintenance firms. Its growth has been rapid and it has signed up a number of the industry's big players as clients since it came to market in 2000. However, the final six months of last year presented its shareholders with a raft of disappointments.


Aero's interim results for the six months to the end of 2003 were hit by rising overheads, contract delays, US dollar weakness and the impact of SARs (severe acute respiratory syndrome) on demand from an important Asian customer.


The catalogue of woes has taken the shares from a 2003 470p high to a today's year low of 290p down 2.5p on the day.


The share price performance paints the picture of a thoroughly unloved stock but a number shrewd investors have actually shown renewed interest in Aero recently.


AAA-rated contrarian investor Patrick Evershed picked up 70,000 shares in July for the New Star Select Opportunities fund New Star Select Opportunities, which took its holding to 250,000 or 1.6% of the 46 million company.


Gartmore's star smaller companies stock picker Gervais Williams has also been buying recently. He has bought 10,000 shares so far this month to take the Gartmore UK & Irish unit trust's Gartmore UK & Irish Small Companies holding to 470,000.


Framlington star Brian Watson has a 450,000 share holding in the Framlington Innovative Growth investment trust (FIT).


The underlying state of the business does not seem as bad as recent trading suggests
External factors have been at the root of a number of the company's problems especially the SARs epidemic, US dollar's weakness and delays to a big contract caused by an external union dispute.


Unfortunately there is the chance tough conditions could persist.


SARs may no longer be in the headlines but a lagged effect on aircraft maintenance could continue to subdue Aero's business with HAECO - linked to Cathay Pacific - in Asia. Another negative is the high oil price, which could cause delays to repair and maintenance spending and could possibly mean fewer flights.


Although there are reasons to be wary, much of Aero's recent plight was down to its reliance on the contract with HAECO.


Aero now has three very significant contracts - with HAECO, SR Technics and FLS Aerospace - which should strengthen the group's resilience once they get up and running. The company also continues to win new business.


When Aero's large contracts kick in next year they should have a marked effect on revenue and profit.


Brokers' consensus forecasts suggest turnover has fallen by 6.6 million to 22.5 million in the year to the end of June 2004 but should jump to 47 million in the current year. Profit before tax in the year just gone is predicted to fall by about 600,000 to 2.25 million before leaping in the current year to 8.25 million as delayed big contracts kick in.


The shares are valued at 28 times forecasts for the year just gone and 7.8 times next year's earnings if the group, despite the difficulties, Aero can meet expectations.

Aero has to build up large levels of stock to support new contracts, which makes growth very cash intensive and to date it has relied on share issues to support its expansion. However, the group has recently extended its borrowing facilities from 10 million to 25 million, which should ensure it can take on new business without issuing shares at the current depressed price.


Full year results are expected on 13 September and should meet expectations despite continued weak trading over the final three months of the year. The weakness has been mitigated by profits from the active trading of inventory held by the group.


Aero appears to still have some difficulties but the longer-term picture is encouraging.


The forthcoming results should give shareholders a better view of how the company is faring but there are unlikely to be many positive surprises. Still shrewd investors appear happy to pay the current price for a company that has made such impressive inroads into its market and should benefit once current troubles are over.


It looks like a good time to tuck some shares away for investors not afraid to take a long term view and possibly suffer a knock following the results. For others Aero looks like a good candidate for the watch list.ENDS

And we have from Killik Brokers this morning this....................

Aero Inventory Final Results



Aero Inventory, the provider of e-based procurement and inventory management solutions to the aerospace industry, has announced its preliminary results for the year ended 30 June 2004. Turnover was 21.1m up 32.8% while pre-tax profit came in at 2.1m, down 26.1% as anticipated in earlier announcements.



After a placing at 400p back in 2003 the shares rose to 460p before have a tough start to 2004. Back in March the group indicated that due to timing issues profit for the year would be below prevailing expectations. The shares got down to around 300p from where they have bounced strongly. These results are encouraging as it appears the disappointment from earlier in the year has not been repeated as can often be the case. The company also said that it has a positive outlook for current financial year underpinned by new contracts, in particular those with FLS Aerospace.



Clearly 2004 will be a black mark on the earnings record of Aero Inventory but looking through this, it still looks an interesting business. If the group can keep to its current forecasts for 2005 and beyond the shares should appreciate from here.



cheers Gf. Made my mind up having some of this action.

AB Foods - Monday 13th September 2004




The UK's fourth largest food producer said today in a trading update that profits in the second half will be slightly better than expected, which lifted the shares 8p to 658p. But high raw material prices and the weakness of the euro against sterling are still weighing heavily on the group. Some good recent acquisitions should help with growth, and the huge cash pile gives options for the future, says Ian Forrest.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conglomerates are supposed to be out of fashion these days but one of the main benefits of being a conglomerate, a diversity of unrelated businesses, has been on show recently at AB Foods. Strong trading at the discount clothes chain Primark has helped offset problems in the British Sugar subsidiary and grocery divisions this year.

The good news today was that Primark has seen like-for-like sales growth in the second half that has exceeded the 5% achieved in the first half. Four new stores have been opened this year, bringing the total to 120.

However, a good crop for British Sugar could not prevent a decline in profits in the second half due to the weakness of the euro against the pound. Some benefit has been gained from higher sugar prices in Poland and China, but it is unclear how long that will last.


The European Union is likely to reform the sugar beet production industry in 2006 and many believe the result will be a significant reduction in sugar prices, perhaps as much as 30%.

With about 33% of its income derived from this, it is not surprising that AB Foods is trying to build up its non-sugar businesses to try to mitigate for any further problems at British Sugar.

In July the company announced the acquisition of the international yeast, bakery ingredients and US herbs and spices businesses from Australian group Burns, Philp & Company for 730m, subject to regulatory approvals.

This acquisition includes the market leader in baker's yeast in North America, Fleischmann, and the combined businesses had a profit of 70m on sales of 383m in the year ended June 2003.

This deal follows the acquisition of Ovaltine in 2002 and the cooking oils group Mazola in March this year. These purchases have reduced the cash pile, over 1.3 billion in April, but there is still plenty left in the piggy bank should any more companies prove tempting.

The full year profit figure will be affected by new international pension accounting rules, but brokers are expecting an 8% increase in profits this year to 510m with earnings forecast to be 45.9p.

For 2005 the numbers are due to rise to 575m and 51.6p, which gives a forward PER of 13 and a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. This hardly makes the shares cheap or attractive. Indeed, the problems faced by the sugar operation and the high cost of raw materials make this stock a hard one for investors to swallow at the moment. Avoid.


cheers Gf

Palm oil group Anglo Eastern Plantations, whose shares have risen eightfold in the past three years but which have looked toppy in recent months, added 5p to 182 1/2p after a leap in half-year profits and bullish comments about the rest of the year.
NB, This one was highlighted about 2 weeks ago on rising palm oil prices.

cheers GF.

A recent Killik stock tip......................

Venture Production Plc

Risk Rating: 8



Venture Production is an Aberdeen-based oil and gas production company. The group acquires and exploits stranded assets, i.e. untapped oil and gas fields with proven potential. The group typically takes a large interest in its fields and applies its own technology, which is proving successful in exploiting assets which other oil companies have deemed uneconomic.



KILLIK & Co view:



With an expected rise in production from 19,000 to 50,000 boe/d between now and 2006, we believe that the groups interests in a relatively diversified group of proven assets, generally represent a lower risk profile than investing in similar businesses which solely buy unproven assets. In our view, it is reasonable to consider Ventures valuation relative to its operating cashflow, and on this basis the shares are good value.

cheers GF.

Thanks GF.

Sorry I can't contribute anywhere near as much info as you do.

No problem there Apple its quality not quantity that counts.

cheers Gf.

Buy Aero Inventory at 346.5p
Argues The AIM & OFEX Newsletter

The past year has not been good to holders of Aero Inventory, the parts manager for aircraft builders and repairers. While the shares were trading for as much 490p in October 2003, even after results in line with expectations this week they were selling for as little as 346p.

The SARS outbreak had a lot to answer for in reducing passenger numbers, albeit temporarily, with the knock-on effect of reducing revenues within the aerospace maintenance industry.

Aero Inventory's pipeline of business has been a bit thin and has just shifted into the current year and beyond. Although the HAECO contract has taking its time in getting back to producing pre-SARS revenues for the company, the deals with SR Technics, GAMCO and, in particular, FLS are likely to lead to a bumper year.

Consequently, broker Evolution Beeson Gregory is forecasting revenues to more than double in 2004/2005 to 49.2 million pounds, and pre-tax profits are set to jump five-fold to 10 million pounds.

All being well, this means that EPS should come in at more than 40p per share, making Aero Inventory look cheap indeed at the current price.

Turnover in the year to end June 2004 was up 32% at 21 million pounds, but the pre-tax profit of 2.1 million pounds was down 26% due to the lumpy contract flow. Fully diluted earnings per share of 9.22p were half the level of the previous year.



If investors can see past this bumpiness of earnings, in the current year and beyond the company should continue to operate in a growing market. Aircraft makers and maintenance outfits do not like to carry parts themselves as it is not what they see as their core competency. This means that the trend for outsourcing of inventory functions to companies like Aero Inventory, do nothing but manage parts, should prevail.

Aero Inventory's strategy is to grow its business rapidly and profitably by securing further long-term, sole-supplier contracts. So far, this strategy, barring one or two hiccups, has been working well, and the company provided a positive outlook with its annual results.

We should remember that the long term trend for the airline industry is for passenger numbers to increase. Airlines carried 1.5 billion passengers in 2003, and this is set to grow to three billion by 2015, according to IATA.

However, as always with anything related to the airline industry, there are risks. Another SARS outbreak or terrorist attack could be around the corner. Given the apparent inability of governments to remove these threats, the risk should remain serious considerations for investors. For this reason we rate Aero Inventory as a SPECULATIVE BUY.

Share price: 345p - 348p

Stockmarket: AIM

Symbol: AI.

cheers Gf.

QUALIPORT
Three Obscure Franchises

By Maynard Paton (TMFMayn)
September 14, 2004


Operating margins are a filter for possible 'franchises'. By making more profit from every 1 of sales, a high margin firm could well have some sort of pricing power over its customers. Such power could stem from limited competition or a strong operational advantage, both of which are attractive features of any long-term share. Read more.

The following three companies have recorded consistently high operating margins in the past. They are however far from being prominent stock market names.

1. Victrex (LSE: VCT)

Victrex describes itself as an 'innovative, world-leading, high performance materials group'. The firm is the sole manufacturer of polyetheretherketone (PEEK), a high performance thermoplastic claimed to possess a 'unique combination' of properties. The properties no doubt give the product (which is used in a variety of markets including aerospace, electronics and food processing) its competitive advantage.

Victrex joined the market in 1995 at 170p per share and at 335p is currently valued around 270m. Progress since the listing has been steady. Sales have risen from 38m to 72m, pre-tax profits have improved from 13m to 23m while the dividend has increased every year, from 4.5p to 7.5p per share.

Note however that Victrex's performance can be volatile. In 2002, the company cited the global economic slowdown for an 18% reduction in turnover and 16% contraction to earnings. But operating margins have been consistently high throughout the quoted period, with anywhere between 27% and 34% being recorded.

2. Pinewood Shepperton (LSE: PWS)

Pinewood Shepperton is Europe's leading provider of studio and film-related services. It owns extensive facilities used for major film productions, studio television recordings, the filming of commercials and post-production sound services. Pinewood's competitive advantages are said to include the number, range and sizes of its studios, a variety of specialised on-site film services and its proximity to Heathrow and central London.

After acquiring a listing earlier this year, Pinewood shares have gained 51p to 231p, which values the group at nearly 110m. Pre-2001 accounts are hard to come by, but between 2001 (when Pinewood Studios bought Shepperton Studios) and 2003, sales advanced 7m to 37m and operating profits put on 5m to 11m. Underlying operating margins over the past three years have been 20%, 29% and 30%.

3. Parkdean Holidays (LSE: PDH)

Parkdean is the country's third largest holiday park owner. Parkdean aims to build its estate -- currently consisting of 15 sites -- by acquiring parks from small independent operators. Parkdean alleges 'few, if any' new parks are currently being constructed in the UK due to 'onerous' planning restrictions. It also claims 'no significant new park developments are anticipated'. The industry is highly fragmented with the biggest player owning only 40 of the UK's 3,500 or so sites.

The shares have done well since their 2002 listing. From an initial 100p price, they now stand at 213p, giving Parkdean a market value of roughly 85m. Since 2000, revenues have surged from 15m to 54m while profits soared from 2m to 9m. Last year, the dividend was doubled. Operating margins have been between 20% and 27% during the past four years.

Pros and cons

The trio have their pros and cons.

Victrex has the most attractive and proven track record. However, it suffers from low investor visibility. It isn't obvious how PEEK can sustain its competitive advantage or who or what its competitors are. The danger for shareholders is relying too much on what management say if things turn sour. Nevertheless, Victrex undoubtedly has reputation for quality and innovation, which should be hard to displace.

Pinewood's an interesting share. Its facilities and location limit competition while also creating decent barriers to entry. Trying to replicate Pinewood's 200-plus acre estate somewhere near the M25 will be very difficult and expensive. Existing industry rivalry however could be Pinewood's problem -- American producers can always make their films in Hollywood. Canada has a number of studios too, which benefit from being on the American continent and having certain taxation incentives. In the UK, there are also studios at Elstree, Ealing and Leavesden, though each possesses fewer facilities than Pinewood.

Like Pinewood, Parkdean also enjoys planning and location barriers to entry. Holiday parks just can't be constructed as and when and it's fair to say the best sites have already been taken. But Parkdean's major shortcoming is substitution. There are a myriad of alternative holidaying options available, including seaside B&Bs, Butlin's, Center Parcs (LSE: CPK), luxury hotels and overseas trips. That said, running a caravan park would seem simple and boring enough to warm the hearts of most buy and hold investors.


cheers GF.

An interesting read from Frequent trader Robbie Burns......................




ROBBIE BURNS THE NAKED TRADER
Every week, Robbie Burns of www.nakedtrader.co.uk gives his unique insight on the markets.

Robbie has been a full-time trader since 2001 and has amassed profits of more than 130,000. He writes about his daily share buys and sells every weekday on the naked trader website. He also writes a column for the Sunday Times about his SIPP pension fund so far he has built up profits of more than 30,000. His book The Naked Trader is due to be published in November.





I've always had trouble spelling "psychology".
But that doesn't matter as ADVFN has a very good editor who will make sure psy.. psc..will be spelt correctly! (You were correct Robbie - Ed)

Market psychology is an important topic.

Because however cool you think you are, your buy and sell decisions will end up being based on simple human nature.

And, being humans, we are very emotional animals. We let emotions rule various aspects of our lives and it's just the same with investment.

Emotions quite simply get in the way of making good investment decisions.

For example I lost 7,000 by buying shares in Coffee Republic for 27p in the year 2000.. and selling them for 4p in 2001!

That's because I made the classic novice investor mistake of hanging onto a loser.

On top of that I got far too emotionally involved with the company because I liked the coffee - I even started buying more coffee there than I needed, in the idiotic hope it might push up the share price.

Of course all it did was keep me awake at night!

We all want to feel good about ourselves, and selling for a quick profit makes us feel VERY good. Trouble is, our feel good emotions harm long-term investment gains because it stops us sticking with the winners.

Many investors even take profits if a share has only gone up two or three per cent.

That's because they can proudly boast to themselves and others; "I banked a profit."

And of course emotion is the main reason for hanging on to losers for far too long.

We hate feelings of regret and selling a losing share makes us regret and maybe feel a bit mad at ourselves.

So we'd rather watch the shares continue to decline than take the loss and feel bad about it. It's stupid really, because eventually when we sell even lower we feel even worse!

There's another psychological problem when it comes to selling at a loss. That's feelings of revenge!

We want to get that money back and that causes us to be emotional and start taking too many risks.

If we've lost half our money we might be tempted to go for a small stock we think might double in order to get the money back. Or other dodgy behaviour.

This is where an unemotional stop loss comes into its own - that way a stock is sold without bringing in the emotions of regret and getting even. And that way means you are less likely to make a too-risky next trade.

Humans are very much a 'pack' animal. We like to do things together and this very much applies in the shares marketplace.

That's why we sell when everyone else is selling and buy when everyone else is buying.

It's why we sell winning shares far too early and sell losers far too late.

One of the main reasons investors lose money in the markets is their inability to sell something at a loss - like me with Coffee Republic.

This is mainly simply due to ego.

We just don't like to admit to ourselves that we got something wrong.

So we sit there and hold on and on to a share that just keeps on falling.

And absolutely every investor has done this and you will do it too!

It is quite difficult to phone a dealer and admit you've made a loss and are now taking it. It's much easier to take a loss online!

Basically you have to go against human nature when you take a loss, but you must steel yourself to do it otherwise you will not become a successful trader.

Let's take an example.

You want to buy a new share but you have to sell a current one to raise the cash.

The choice is between two shares.

One share is showing a loss of 20% - and the other is showing a profit of 20%.

Which share should be sold?

I would bet nine times out of ten, the investor would sell the stock that has gone up 20%, rather than sell the loser.

That's because selling the winner shows what a good decision it was to buy it and validates that decision. There's also an element of pride involved and it feels good to lock in the profit.

You can also tell your best friend/partner: "I just made 20% profit". (You keep the loser to yourself!)

I feel pretty good when I lock in a profit and extremely irritated when I have to take a loss!

You really have to learn not to postpone the feelings of regret. Avoidance of regret is one of the main reasons investors lose money.

cheers Gf

Killik Brokers morning news..................

NEWS IN BRIEF



The Taylor Nelson share price is moving favorably, up to 220p in early dealings. This is one of our research stocks and last weeks interim numbers have been well received with strong guidance in growth for the provision of market information. We are still running the position in ARM where we see a return of the price back above the 100p level. Currently, they trade at 88p.



Omega, the recently listed kitchens group announces strong better than expected first half results. The company, which was founded by former Spring Ram boss and Sunderland Chairman Bob Murray, provides bespoke kitchens into the independent trade made a 1.6 million profit and with the busiest half still to come (October is busy as kitchens are ordered in time for Christmas), full year forecasts of 3.6 million look fully achievable. At 123p, the stock trades on 13x earnings which, given the 20% growth, looks cheap. Admittedly, the MFI problems have weighed on the sector, but this small, nimble independent is doing well.

cheers Gf

Any views on HOT. Good report today profit and turnover up as well as price 5%.
Held for a while and though what a dog but it's looking good at long last.
I could really do with some good news real bad last few days.

MS

From Killiks morning note. I thinkwe have some TrafficMaster fans on here..............

TRAFFICMASTER meeting with management

This was the first opportunity for new boss Stuart Berman to present following the move by founder David Martell to step aside. Current trading is strong with sales of SmartNav on track at 11000 by June and on target for 28000 by the year end. The number of outlets selling SmartNav is now up from 2000 at the period end to closer to 3000 now although sales per outlet remains low. The key challenge for the group remains in outlet support and they are augmenting this with a pilot advertising investment on radio with the voice of Stephen Fry. Should this work, and Stuart will be looking to substantially increase marketing spend.

Teletrac is growing substantially boosted by its stronger finances since repaying the bonds (this allows fewer competitor attacks through their weakened balance sheet). The business, which provides fleet monitoring systems, now accounts for around half group profitability.

Management now has a very key year ahead to ensure no slip ups in performance. The 2005 SmartNav target is aggressive but fully achievable. Analysts are upgrading 2005 expectations for tax/interest receipt reasons. We see a range for the shares of between 80-110p until further evidence emerges that SmartNav growth remains on track. This should come around March April next year.

cheers GF.

Killik morning notes..............

NEWS IN BRIEF



Hardman Resources, in its regular Tuesday update, confirms that the Dorade-1 exploration well in PSC Block 2 (Mauritania) was spudded on 12 September. Capitaine-1 was spudded on 16th September but the casing became stuck at a depth of 2585 metres and will be redrilled at a date in the future. Tevet was spudded yesterday and Chinguetti-8 on the 14th. So far, there is little to interpret from this news but we shall monitor developments closely for reaction to other parties in this agreement, namely Premier Oil and Sterling Energy.



Umbro, the football shirt manufacturer has lost a licensing deal with Celtic, which has transferred to Nike. Umbro shares have been a firmer market of late rising from a low of 90p (stock was initially placed at 100p) to the current 110p, down 5p.



Gyrus, the medical devices group for reducing trauma in ear nose and throat operations, announces a profit increase of 3.7 million (+23%) on 14% increase in revenue. The model broadly works on the concept of installing a generator in the operating theatre and charging for disposable products used per operation (similar to the Gillette model). They have increased the number of generators by 33% during the year to 4256. They remains confident of high teens revenue growth. Current expectatio0ns for the year are 10 million of profits (which they confirm they are on track to achieve) followed by 12.5 million for 2005 for a prospective multiple of around 17.5. Not cheap, but this group is building friends.



Superscape shares have reclaimed the 40p level in morning trade on impressive trading volumes. We noted some sizeable buying yesterday with volume at 1.5 million. Typically the 40p level represents a ceiling for the price but the rise from the low has been steady and consistent. Of interest, a mobile content show begins at the Excel centre in the Docklands today. Results are due next month.



cheers Gf.

WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!, this is a joke right?. I wouldnt say women were better investors but better spenders, certainly the ones I know LOL.

MONEY
Saving and Investing
Women better investors in 2003/04

Published: 17:22 Mon 27 Sept 2004
By Lorna Bourke, Money Columnist
Email to a friend


We all know that women are better drivers than men, writes Lorna Bourke; now the real blow to male egos - it appears women are more successful at managing their share portfolios than men.

According to a survey from Halifax Share Dealing, 72% of womens portfolios stayed at the same value or rose over the past year, compared with 66% of men's portfolios. Overall, grey haired investors were more successful than younger groups with 43% of the 65-74 age group reporting their portfolio had risen in value compared with just 29% of 25-34 year olds.


And confidence in shares remains strong, in spite of the lacklustre performance of the FTSE 100 over the past six months. Customers were asked what value they thought the FTSE 100 would reach in the future compared with its value at the time of the survey 4,306 in July of this year.


Some 85% of investors predicted the value would stay the same or increase in 6 months time. More than one third of respondents predicted a FTSE 100 value of 4,401-4,551 would be reached in 6 months' time.


When asked to make predictions over the next 12 months, the majority of investors (29%) thought the value would reach 4,400-4,550 points. Only 13% of investors thought the value would fall in one years time and 12% predicted a value of 5,000-5,150 points would be reached.


Given the very modest increases expected by the majority of those interviewed, it is curious that they stick with shares as an investment, when they could get a guaranteed 5% gross, or more, from fixed interest investments.


This may not be surprising, however, in the light of the interviewees understanding of economic fundamentals. The research also asked investors what effect they thought the recent hike in oil prices would have on the value of the FTSE 100.


Overall, 48% of investors predicted the increases would have no effect on the value of the FTSE 100 while 22% predicted the value would increase and 30% predicted the FTSE 100 would fall in value. The 65-74 age group was the most optimistic believing the FTSE 100 would go up compared with 18% of 25-34 year olds.


'This research is a fascinating view into investors predictions and attitudes of FTSE 100 performance, commented Sue Concannon, managing director of Halifax Share Dealing.

It is interesting that we are seeing women managing their portfolios better than men. The results suggest that women and older investors are generally more cautious which, in the current climate, seems to be a winning formula. It is encouraging that investors are optimistic in their predictions of the FTSE 100 value and it will be interesting to see if their confidence will be proved right, she said.ENDS.

Its not the beginning of April is it????????????????.


cheers GF.

An interesting snippet

Quote

Just a winde up apple. Cheers GF.

No, just background info on what is happening elsewhere in the energy market.

Companies that you don't buy can help to give a broader picture of what is going on.

Good point, good point.

cheers Gf.

Something interesting here to ponder over. From Killik morning notes.

Turning to valuations on global markets, it is also worthy now to look at historic and prospective price earnings ratios according to IBIS consensus (pre-goodwill).



MARKET VALUATIONS



2004 2005



United States 17.2 15.6

United Kingdom 13.5 12.5

EuroStoXX 13.3 11.9

France 12.8 11.6

DAX 13.5 11.5

TOPIX (Japan)* 18.1 16.0

Emerging Markets 8.5 8.5



If you subscribe to the view that the economy goes into 2005 in reasonable shape, this valuations hardly looked stretched.



Drilling down into some of the themes, we briefly flirted with the idea of rotating back to growth biased stocks. The chart we presented yesterday looked at the relative performance of stocks with a high yield versus those with a low yield (simplistic I know, but we have to start somewhere!). Despite the market moving higher over the past month, it remains the case that high yielding shares continue to out perform but our suspicion is that the tide will turn. To summarise, we believe it is time to look for the re-emergence of the growth rating. The PEG ratio, established by Jim Slater, looked at the relationship of the underlying growth rating compared to the price earnings ratio.



Below, we have highlighted some growth stocks, their price earnings ratios and PEG ratios according to REFS. A ratio around 1 is perceived as attractive and for such good quality stocks, we think cheap. The broad message is that portfolios need realigning towards growth.



Current ratings of growth stocks



Capita 341p 19.6x 1.7% 1.12

WPP 530p 15.2x 1.7% 1.15

Carphone Warehouse 150p 18x 1.0% 0.69

Smith & Nephew 515p 21.2x 1.1% 1.48

Vodafone 137p 14.3x 1.7% 1.89

Sage 172p 10.6x 1.1% 1.44

Reed Elsevier 505p 14.7x 2.7% 0.8





cheers GF

TOKYO (AFX) - An earthquake measuring 5.8 on the Richter scale rocked Tokyo
and the Kanto region of Japan Wednesday night, local media said quoting the
meteorological agency.
There were no reports of damage or injury, Kyodo news agency said, although
train services in the capital were temporarily halted following the tremor.
The meteorological agency did not issue any warning for tsunami waves which
sometimes follow earthquakes, Kyodo said.
bur-dk/dv/jlw