Received a letter from fleet street publications dated 05/10. Apparently 60 billion barrels of oil are waiting to be pumped to the surface from the FALKLANDS(yes the ones which Argentina attacked). A company reponsible for extracting the oil is due for floatation any week now!. They expect the share price to jump 100% to 1400% within 1 year. Any ideas...

No idea but if you find out then I'm in. Markymar is the expert in this part of the world so he my have some idea. Can't be DES as it's already listed.

MS

its Falklands Oil and Gas Ltd a subsidairy of Falkland Island Holdings (FKL). offer price 40p min 2500 shares, closes on 12/10 so get your skates on if you want some, try under HDR hardman Res or a competitor site bb under the FKL or HDR ticker should have the web address. DYOR etc.

http://www.falklandoilandgas.com/

rkausar - I read the fleet street publications and there was a lot of things he has said which are not true the best thing is to do a bit homework yourself and make your own mind up.Am sure FOGL at 40p is going to be a great Success and word has it that it will be over subscribed but when you look at Desire trading at 32p and news of a Farm-in very soon Desire look cheap as chips.

Desire have done 2D and 3D and now waiting news FOGL have to do 2D then on the tranchers of intrest then do 3D and then will have to find Farm-in partners or raise further funds to drill so there is a good 2 years between them.

Anyway i will put a couple of links in for you to check out and may give more to think about and help with any research.

http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.falklands.gov.fk/dmr/home.htm

http://www.desireplc.co.uk/index1.html





Regards Markymar

this should make you all laugh:

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?

or this:

mid=6373903http://www.fool.co.uk/news/comment/2003/c030923c.htm?

I'm soooo tempted by this new issue but I will have to pass after my experience with Lastminute.com

Good luck all.

bonfield,

I too went in for Lastminute.com, and was disgusted by the handling of that.

I honestly don't think they will do this the same way, ie scaling back all the applicants to a paltry amount, but we shall see. It resulted in bad publicity for LMC, and I'm sure FOGL are aware of that, and don't want a repeat.

Hope I'm right, I went in for the minimum amount, as they may scale that back less than larger tranches, if at all. Some issues have resulted in the small shareholders receiving their full allocation in the past.

Hope I'm right, as I intend to keep them for the longer term, and add if prospects look decent in the future.

Also look at where the Argentinians (YPF)? are drilling. there was plenty of drilling activity around Comodoro Rivadaria a few years ago (NW of Falklands) by YPF, but still in relatively shallow waters, remember once you have found it you still have to get it out to be comercial, and its wild waters down there so suspect subsea completions and pipelines to terra firma, not production platforms to come into the price.

Has anyone heard the likely allocation yet?


grey market price seems to be around 80p, and i am sure they will hit 100p first day, just hope they give us mug punters a few!!!

Sounds too good to be true. Call me risk averse but I think i'll wait and see.

High by lunch, low by tea!?

The new company for float this thursday is 'Falklands Oil and Gas' the shares have been subscribed at 40p private. And the floatation price will be 40 too. Personally I'm in for the short term, with the price of oil at an all time low and the falklands proved 5th largest of oil reserves in the world (that's why we wouldn't let them go so easily) then the market interest both public and institutional will be massive. You would be silly not to have a punt at Falklands Oil and Gas this Thursday! Just take a look at PET, NOP, DES.Market interest is big in oil companies at the moment and with a new float i hope to make 10-25% conservative!!

Captain Naylor

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the subscribed price exceed 40p substantially, in view of the current Bullish outlook on all things energy. But, can you tell me where the info that 'Falklands proved 5th largest oil reserve in the world' comes from. My own assumption was that the FIs and surrounding areas are believed to hold reserves of oil, but currently exploration is ongoing and we have yet to see production from any of these fields. Certainly a few years ago, nothing was found to the North. Happy to be corrected, but it would be useful to have some facts.

Regards

PTH

just a question ...if u hve subscribed how do you find out about your allocation , as i believe the shares certs are not issued till some days later ...so u can't really sell in the first day if it shoots up ... so if it is likely to open up perhaps best to buy on the day and sell later to make a little profit ! other views welcome

ptholden,

"IF" the reserves they think are there are proved, then the FI's will be the 5th largest in the world!

They just have to prove it first!

Worth a speculative play surely?


kantone,

Good point, the share certs wobn't be sent out until the 28th October!
So we will only have paper profits until we have the cert in our hands, and the cynic in me believes the price may dip around that time.

I intend to hold for the longer term, so not worried about the short term price movements, and I will be waiting until the results are known before deciding whether to sell or not.

CaptainNaylor

Agree with you that there are vast reserves down there, the Argies have been drilling there for years, but its not going to be easy to get it out, but they will, offshore technology moves at a terrific pace as evidenced in the North Sea and N Atlantic. I am inclined to wait and see how the shares move before commiting,as floats of this nature can be unpredictable.

as the above bbs from motley fool point out, DES was a similar story many years ago and they didn't manage to find any oil. I imagine the environment off the falklands is less than hospitable and thus expensive to drill. Also the recent release of a Junior Oils fund suggests the small cap oil sector has all the makings of "bubble" to me. Certainly FOGL has stagging possibilities but long term cannot see anything other than disappointment.

bonfield,

I think that's a little unfair, they have some decent seismic already, and are using the funds for the next stage, which is the first chance to prove what actually lies under the sea there.

Given the improvement in technology, and the persistent belief by a number of companies over an extended timeframe that oil exists in large quantities, I genuinely believe they will find oil, and in abundance.

Desire are still there, now with Hardman as a partner, a solid company with a good track record in exploration, so I am comfortable with the risk here.

With regard to the difficulties in extracting the oil in such a hostile environment, I presume they wouldn't be looking if they weren't confident it could be done!

I read recently that two days after invading the falkland Islands, General Galtieri was offering exploration blocks for sale to American oil companies, and there is more than a suggestion that this was the real reason for the Falklands war! (And maybe also the real reason for their subsequent recovery?!)

The Falklands war was definitely about oil. The Argies new it and so did Thatcher. In fact it's been known in the oil industry since the 60's that there is oil there. Bloomberg yesterday morning had an interview with someone from RAB. They have taken a large position with FOGL. For me I'll wait and see before I jump in. No matter what your view is there is no getting away from the fact that this is frontier stuff with all the risks that go with this type of exploration. It can fail as DES has done so in the past.

Good luck to those who invest.

MS

I have just called, and Capita have now confirmed my application for 2500 shares was sucessful!

The telephone number for Capita is 0870 162 3100.

mickey,

Yes you're right, it IS "frontier stuff", but with that goes a higher reward IF allturns out well!

I know DES failed, but they are still there, and I'm sure it's only a question of drilling in the right place!

The technology points to huge deposits, I find it hard to believe that eventually they won't strike oil.

Andy

I do hope so. Those who have been loyal to DES deserve a break. I'm just waiting to see what happens. If or should I say when they strike oil I hope I'll be in time to jump on board.

Good luck

MS

Can anyone give me the name of this company exactly???

rhausar,

from their website; http://www.falklandoilandgas.com/fog/corporate.php


- Falkland Oil and Gas Limited (FOGL)

FOGL was formed in 2004 to invest in an offshore oil exploration programme covering approximately 33,700 sq km south and east of the Falkland Islands. FOGL holds a 77.5 per cent interest in seven offshore production licences granted by the Government of the Falkland Islands.

Plaudits to 2kpromeome on ADVFn.


http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=16848

Well worth a read if you have applied for shares!

A smallish map that shows the exploration area in relation to the Falkland islands,

price now 52.50p!

Another decent article.


http://www.falkland-malvinas.com/Detalle.asp?NUM=4415

Seemed to be quite a few posters on ADVFN who seemed to think this would be a 'killing' today. Might well still be, but looks like quite a few could be in for longer than they intended!

Did any one just see David hudd on CNBC? He basically said what we already know and said that the waters off the shetland islands were as bad as the falklands. You can prob listen to it on CNBC website.
Im waiting before I buy into this one. When the rush is over I think (IMO) that the price will drop.

Regards,

wilbs

ptholden,

Well it would seem that several brokers were unable to trade this online at 08:00, and others had feed problems. I think this has scuppered what would have otherwise been a frantic start, which is a shame because I think the market needed a decent float to attract some interest back into it.


All oil and exploration stocks seem to be being hit, maybe some profit taking going on?

Andy,

You are certainly right about brokers having difficulties trading, they were going nuts over on ADVFN at not being able to buy. Perhaps they will be grateful at the end of the day, who knows? Whatever the outcome of today's float re share value, it is going to be quite some time beofre any flesh, (oil), is added to the bones!

Regards

PTH

PTHolden,

Yes of course, we are simply buying potential.

A nice article from oilbarrel.com.
---------------------------------------

Successful Flotation Of Falklands Oil & Gas Heralds A New Wave Of Interest In Oil And Gas Exploration Around The Islands

There is another boom or boomlet underway in oil and gas exploration in the Falkland Islands. The waters around the self governing territory of the UK lying approximately 500 miles to the east of the South American continent have seen exploration before.

In 1997 a total of six wells were drilled in a single campaign involving Amerada Hess, Desire Petroleum, Lasmo, Shell and others. Small cap Desire Petroleums share price went sky high during the drill only to come back upon disappointing results. Desire is on the move again with the renewed interest in the area. While these wells in the North Basin found traces of oil and gas and, in one case, recovered some oil to surface, the campaign was a commercial failure.

Falklands Oil & Gas Limited (FOGL) is raising 12 million through the issue of 30 million shares at 40p on Londons AIM today. The issue was oversubscribed so it will be interesting to see what the market cap turns out to be with 80 million shares in issue. The strong interest in the company could be because, unlike the earlier round of wells, FOGL will concentrate on the South Basin which is geologically distinct from the North Basin. The new company will spearhead the exploration campaign in 7 licences, which cover 33,700 sq kms to the south and the east of the Falkland Islands, with Hardman Resources, which has achieved such success offshore Mauritania in West Africa, holding the remaining 22.5 per cent.

The South Falkland and Falkland Plateau basins form the eastern expression of a sequence of sedimentary basins formed during the late Jurassic and Early Cretaceous periods with the rifting of the African and South American continental plates. The scale of the basin in terms of its extent and depth suggests the possible existence of a major hydrocarbon resource. An initial inventory of eight exploratory leads has been outlined each with the potential to contain 200 to 500 million barrels of recoverable oil.

While no wells have been drilled on these licences, there have been successful tests in the adjacent Malvinas Basin to the West. The Calamar-1 well flowed 3,000 barrels of oil per day and the Salmon-2 well-flowed 20 million cubic feet per day of gas. The wells produced from the Cretaceous Springhill Formation, which is expected to occur in the new licences.

There is a step by step programme towards drilling. In 2004 FOGL has been focused on 2,300 kms of 2D seismic bought in 2003 at a cost of US$4.5 million. The acquisition of the new data follows the 2003 mapping of 4,340 kms of the purchased seismic data, which identified the 8 leads in water depths of 400 to 1,850 metres.

FOGLs share of the work programme will cost US$3.6 million and will be funded by FOGLs shareholders which include the Falkland Islands Holding Company and Aussie junior Global Petroleum. Hardman has put up US$0.9 million of the seismic costs.

Following a period of interpretation of the results of the 2D seismic survey in early 2005, and assuming the results of such interpretation are satisfactory, FOGL would expect 3D seismic to be started in mid-2005 in order to establish the most promising locations for drilling. This survey is expected to cover an area of up to 1,500 sq kms. The cost of the programme is to be covered by the AIM listing.

Drilling is targeted to start in 2006 subject to satisfactory results of the 3D seismic survey, rig availability and agreement on a suitable funding arrangement, possibly by a farm-out.

The Falkland Islands fiscal system applicable to production licences currently compares favourably with that of many other countries. The regime is predominantly profits based and the FOGL directors believe that the Falkland Islands Government is committed to ensuring that the overall tax system remains attractive and conducive to attracting future investment.

Tony Alves, analyst at KBC Peel Hunt, has done some preliminary calculations. He says: While the inherent risks in FOGL at this stage are clearly high even a modest level of success could provide extraordinary returns to investors.

He says current scooping economics suggest that based on a long term oil price of US$25, a single 300 million barrel discovery would have a net present value (NPV) of US$2.27 per barrel, while for a 450 million barrel discovery, the NPV rises to US$2.86.

Assuming FOGL reduces its equity by 50 per cent ahead of drilling, the smaller discovery would provide it with net present value of over US$260 million. Divide this by 1.8 for the dollar/sterling exchange rate, and 80 million for the number of shares, and you get a price of 2.40 a share. This is from one modest discovery with conservative oil price assumptions. Where there is one find there could be more. But you never know until you drill. High Risk/High Reward potential this one.

Is this stock listed in AIM, i can't seem to locate it!!!
What is its full name excactly...

FOGL is the ticker rk.

rk,

Yes FOGL is an AIM stock.

Amazing!

An excellent steady rise today, after yesterday's "dissapointment" of ONLY a 20% rise, and no posts at all here today!

What really hapenned was expectations wee too high for the first day's trading, but now people can see the opportunity to buy in at a much lower level then they thought would be possible, they are taking the opportunity whilst it's there IMHO.

I am considering a top up myself.

where too next week ?

gorndon,

well IF the weekend newspapers mention FOGL, we may continue with the rise for a while, but not sure how anyone can predict with any degree of accuracy where the price will end up.

I still feel it has more to go, as there is massive potential here, so may well top up on Monday.

I agree, there is a masive potential here but not for a few years. DYOR and you will see why. Im gonna buy but will wait till it drops in price.

wilbs

wilbs,

I have DMOR, I have read the prspectus several times.

Potential is what is being traded here, and IF a resource is confirmed, FOGL will race away.

I'm buying now in order to be in at the start, rather than wait for the price to rise against me later, if of course they are sucessful.

Asian Energy is an example of a resource being defined, and look what hapenned there!

I am happy to hold at this level, and as for the price falling, maybe once the initial interest dies diown, unless they release some news of course!

we will see.

I totaly agree with you andy.

I have bought into many shares too early at a high price only to watch them fall and kick myself as I could of bought them much cheaper.
I will have to keep a close eye on things.

There is a good article on www.oilbarrel.com about FOGL.
Are you also thinking about buying into Hardman, Falkland Island Holdings?

Regards,

wilbs