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Traders Thread - Monday 25th October (TRAD)     

Greystone - 24 Oct 2004 13:59

Greystone - 24 Oct 2004 14:00 - 2 of 21

Greystone - 24 Oct 2004 14:00 - 3 of 21



Greystone - 24 Oct 2004 14:00 - 4 of 21


Greystone - 24 Oct 2004 14:01 - 5 of 21

Thanks to STORMCALLER for a really good read this week.

I will now go and find out my old ukelele and see if it can provide me with the inspiration I need to make a profit this week.... ;-)

G.

optomistic - 24 Oct 2004 15:54 - 6 of 21

Thanks for the article from me Stormy, interesting read.
opto

Digger - 24 Oct 2004 16:32 - 7 of 21


MARKETS
FTSE 100 4,615.4 down 2.0
FTSE 250 6,287.2 up 22.5
DJIA 9,755.15 down 110.61 (new low for the year)
Nasdaq Composite 1,915.14 down 38.48
S&P 500 1,095.74 down 10.75
Gold 423.45 usd (423.02 usd)
Oil - Brent Dec 51.22 usd (50.72 usd)

BREAKING NEWS - WEEKEND
* George Magan, the corporate financier and former treasurer of the
Conservative party, working on a 5 bln stg takeover of J SAINSBURY -
Sunday Telegraph
* BAE SYSTEMS poised to win a 5bln stg order from the government for
the second tranche of Eurofighter Typhoons, the pan-European combat
aircraft - Sunday Telegraph
* MARKS & SPENCER will reveal on Tuesday that it is buying back 2.3 bln
stg of its shares at a lower-than-expected price of between 355 pence
and 360 pence each - Sunday Telegraph
* Richard Desmond, publisher of Express newspapers, paid himself 46.2
mln stg last year - more than double the year before and enough to push
his media empire into the red - Sunday Times
* Baugur, the Icelandic retailer that owns the Oasis and Hamleys store
groups, holds informal talks with Rubicon, the owner of the Principles
and Warehouse fashion chains, about taking a stake in the company -
Sunday Telegraph
* Senior Pentagon officials warn Brussels that they will not hesitate
to blow European satellites out of the sky if they are used against
America by a hostile power such as China - The Business
* Marsh & McLennan hires Freshfields, the law firm, to conduct a
thorough investigation into whether its London operation is guilty of
"price fixing and collusion" - Sunday Times
* Lord Lang of Monkton, the president of the Board of Trade in the last
conservative government, under pressure to resign from the board of
Marsh & McLennan - Independent on Sunday
* Financial Services Authority, the UK watchdog, planning a
Spitzer-style crackdown on errant UK insurers when a new regulatory
regime comes in January - The Business
* Casino bill derailed by bitter split in Cabinet; Brown and Prescott
move against gambling explosion; plan for 250 super-casinos to be
slashed to 20 - Observer
* BBC preparing to announce swingeing job cuts a few weeks before
Christmas, as negotiations over the renewal of its 10-year charter enter
their final stages - Observer
* A full-blown bid battle set to erupt this week for WARNER CHILCOTT,
the Northern Ireland-based pharmaceuticals group, when two rival
consortia, Bain Capital and Thomas H Lee, are expected to table bids of
over 1.5 bln stg - Sunday Telegraph
* Shareholders in KIDDE indicate they would be prepared to sell out if
United Technologies Corporation increases its takeover offer to 180
pence from 160 - Sunday Telegraph
* Row breaks out between Ofcom, the communications industry watchdog,
and ICSTIS, the body that regulates premium rate telephone services,
over accusations that Ofcom is failing to prevent customers from being
cheated by fraudsters using the numbers - Sunday Telegraph
* NTL draws up a shortlist of five private equity bidders for its 1.2
bln stg broadcast mast business - Sunday Telegraph
* BOOTS branches out to sell Nokia phones in its stores - Sunday
Telegraph
The return of faulty and unwanted home-delivery goods, many ordered on
the internet, is costing UK retailers 500 mln stg a year in unnecessary
freight journeys - and clogging up Britain's roads, according to a new
government-backed report - The Business
* LLOYDS TSB could be forced to wipe as much as 1.5 bln stg from its
valuation of Scottish Widows before the end of the year, under new
accounting rules - The Business
* Icelandair pounces on EASYJET, Europe's second largest low-cost
airline, by acquiring an 8.4 pct stake in the company; Icelandair says
it regards the Easyjet stake as "a long-term trade investment to which
it may add in the short-term
* Brandes Investment Partners, the Californian fund management group
which played a pivotal role in Philip Green's 9.1 bln stg attempt to buy
MARKS & SPENCER, understood to have visited M&S and Green in London this
week; Amelia Morris, a senior analyst at Brandes, also had separate
meetings with Justin King, J SAINSBURY's chief executive, and Sir Ken
Morrison, chairman of WILLIAM MORRISON - Saturday Telegraph
* EMI among companies targeted by US probe into song plugging; EMI, the
third-largest record company, says it has a 'long-standing, strict,
written policy' prohibiting unlawful radio promotion - Saturday FT
* House prices see biggest fall since Sept 11 attacks; Hometrack will
announce tomorrow that an 0.6 pct fall in house prices recorded by its
October housing markey survey is the largest it has measured - Sunday
Express
* Tens of thousands of elderly people who have used one of the two
types of equity release schemes to sell part of their homes for
retirement cash will face annual income tax bills of thousands of pounds
from next April - Saturday FT
* FSA rules force ABBEY NATIONAL to sell only core mortgages - Saturday
Telegraph
* Institutional investors in PRUDENTIAL considering meeting the life
assurer's non-executive directors to press for the removal of Jonathan
Bloomer, chief executive - Saturday FT
* PRUDENTIAL shareholders confirm chief executive Jonathan Bloomer is
in their sights and that they may sack him as early as Christmas after
last week's shock announcement of a 1 bln stg rights issue - Sunday
Express
* Lloyd's adds to calls for disclosure of commissions - Saturday FT
* Nation's love affair with football is cooling, if the drift in
Premiership attendances is any guide; in the 89 Premier League matches
played so far - almost a quarter of the season - aggregate attendances
have reached 2.93 mln, or just under 33,000 per match, against 3.08 mln
(34,600 a match) this time last year - Saturday FT
* Jeff Greenberg last night poised to step down as chairman and chief
executive of Marsh & McLennan, the beleaguered company at the centre of
the probe by Eliot Spitzer, New York attorney-general, into insurance
corruption - Saturday FT
* UK economic growth slowed in the third quarter, reinforcing
expectation of no further interest rate rises this year - Saturday FT
* VODAFONE's struggling Japanese division facing another significant
setback after it is revealed that MPs will vote on a Bill to ban
pre-paid mobile phones - Saturday Times
* MM02 loses millions of pounds in revenues after an embarrassing
glitch with its billing system - Saturday Times
* City firms ban mobiles from trading rooms - Sunday Times
* Spain's Banco Santander Central Hispano conducting a beauty parade of
investment banks to sell the life business it will acquire as part of
its 8 bln stg takeover of ABBEY - Sunday Times
* Alan Parker, WHITBREAD's new chief executive, will next week announce
plans to sell nearly 300 mln stg worth of assets from its Marriott
Hotels business as the centrepiece of a review of the company's future
strategy - Saturday Times
* ITV will suffer more than any other broadcaster in Europe from new
technology that allows viewers to skip ad breaks, according to research
published by Merrill Lynch - Saturday Times
* ITV to sell the Moving Picture Company, a provider of special effects
for films such as Troy and the Harry Potter series, to Thomson, the
French technology group, for more than 50 mln stg - Sunday Telegraph
* Nectar, the biggest loyalty card programme, on the brink as backers
(J SAINSBURY, Barclaycard) turn cool - Mail on Sunday
* New chairman of J SAINSBURY hires the trouble-shooter who sorted out
last year's pay row at GlaxoSmithKline to devise incentive schemes for
the supermarket group's new executive team; Philip Hampton appoints
Carol Arrowsmith, the head of Deloitte & Touche's executive remuneration
advisory team, to design schemes which will link pay strictly to
performance - Saturday Guardian
* A further sign of the shake-up of NORTHERN FOODS comes as the group
announces the departure of its long-serving finance director, Sean
Christie
* EUROTUNNEL dismisses as speculation a French newspaper report
claiming it is to mothball some of its shuttles amd make redundancies as
part of a three-year business plan - Saturday FT
* EUROTUNNEL has told staff on both sides of the Channel that it will
make sweeping job cuts from January as part of an extensive cost-cutting
programme intended to buy the company time to restructure its 6.4 bln
stg debt - Saturday Times
* EGG agrees to sell part of its loss-making French operations to
Banque Accord for up to 96 mln stg
* TESCO set to increase its majority stake in its South Korean joing
venture with Samsung to 99 pct by 2011 - Saturday Independent
* Malcolm Glazer warned that his dream takeover of MANCHESTER UNITED
will founder unless he secures 75 pct of the club's equity; JP Morgan
will not release the 580 mln stg he may need unless the owner of the
Tampa Bay Buccaneers can show he will secure at least 75 pct of the club
- Sunday Express
* Malcolm Glazer to press ahead with his attempt to buy MANCHESTER
UNITED this week by courting its remaining institutional investors -
Sunday Telegraph
* MANCHESTER UNITED revives plans to build a casino next to its Old
Trafford ground - Mail on Sunday
* Keith Harris, the City banker and ardent MANCHESTER UNITED supporter,
pursuing a plan to prevent Malcolm Glazer taking over the club by asking
Japanese bank Nomura to help give the fans a greater say in any takeover
battle - Saturday Guardian
* US fund managers set to crush the 4.4 bln stg approach by South
African mining giant HARMONY which is seeking to acquire rival South
African group GOLD FIELDS - Sunday Express
* ENNSTONE, the quarry company facing revolt from its three largest
shareholders, says it has received indicative offers of 25 mln stg-30
mln for the engineering arm of JOHNSTON GROUP, which it aims to acquire
- Saturday Telegraph
* Jonathan Neame, chief executive of SHEPHERD NEAME, famous for its
Bishop's Finger and Spitfire beers, faces a shareholder revolt led by
his second cousin at the family-owned brewer's AGM on Friday; Stuart
Neame has written to other shareholders, urging them to vote for three
special resulutions that would put his brother Roderick on the board and
force the company to reveal detailed figures about the business - Mail
on Sunday
* SPORTINGBET in talks to buy Paradisepoker.com, a website operated
from Costa Rica, for more than 170 mln stg - Sunday Times

SATURDAY PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on Marsh & McLennan (a new chief executive
might be able to sit down with Spitzer, but he would not be able to make
the pain of potential fines and client defections go away), KIDDE's
rejection of a 1.3 bln stg offer from United Technologies (Kidde might
try to light the peace pipes), Corporate bonds (falling every time
equities decline, but not recovering in line with share rebounds; any
bad news will be leapt on, with good news brushed aside; bond investors
are not facing a nightmare, but they are unlikely to sleep soundly from
now on ), Lazard's prospective initial public offering) - Weekend share
watch: TATE & LYLE (p/e of 11 is not high but, after the share's
performance so far, they are likely to pause until more good news comes
through), RELIANCE SECURITY (on a p/e of 10.5 times this year's numbers,
a discount to the larger SECURICOR and RENTOKIL on about 13 and 11
respectively), HIGHWAY INSURANCE (shares unlikely to rise much without
further M&A activity) - MY PORTFOLIO: Nick Louth comments on BAA (BAA
gets a comfortable ride on the back of the low-cost airlines that have
helped to fuel the growth of travel from airports such as Stansted and
Luton)

Independent
Private Investor: Sean O'Grady buys URBAN DINING and FALKLAND OIL & GAS
- No Pain, No Gain: Derek Pain says Ofex needs new recruits to restore
its credibility - AMVESCAP (growing worry that next week's third-quarter
results are set to disappoint) - PRUDENTIAL (rumours it is being stalked
by a predator) - ICAP (whispers it has managed to poach a number of key
professionals from one of its rivals) - JJB SPORTS (bid talk) - TOROTRAK
(old rumours about it finally securing a licensing deal for its
revolutionary gearbox return)

Guardian
BT (rumours - denied by a BT spokesman - circulate it has hit a snag
with one of the key NHS contracts won by its global services arm) -
ECKOH TECHNOLOGIES (bid approach; CARPHONE WAREHOUSE thought to have run
a slide rule over the business in recent weeks but no bid is believed to
be imminent) - ROXBORO GROUP (talk that trading continues to be very
strong at its Solarton electronic measurement unit) - ADDLEISURE (debuts
Monday)

Times
SCOTTISH RADIO HOLDINGS (EMAP bid speculation) - CALEDON RESOURCES
(murmurs that Williams de Broe is working on a share placing at 4-1/2
pence to 5) - Tempus: Patrick Hosking asks: What next after the rise and
rise of the banks (It's impossible to imagine a world without banks,
but easy to believe that they won't be quite such dominant beasts in the
stock market in, say 2030, as now. The difficult bit, of course, is
identifying the sector that will take their place) - STOCKWATCH:
SUPERSCAPE (Evolution, the house broker, forecasts profits in 2007; for
now, its valuation looks speculative at best) - SHARE OF THE MONTH:
Stella Shamoon comments on BG GROUP (hold), NATIONAL GRID TRANSCO
(hold), CENTRICA (I would sell and reinvest proceeds in more shares in
BG GROUP)

Telegraph
STANELCO (market chatter says Andy Brough, the Schroders fund manager,
has bought 29 mln shares at 4 pence each, about 3.5 pct of the group) -
EBOOKERS (traders are hoping a bid will come shortly at between 240
pence and 260) - ECKOH TECHNOLOGIES (traders have speculated for a week
that CARPHONE WAREHOUSE is considering making an offer at around 11
pence a share) - QUESTOR COLUMN: CAIRN ENERGY (a stock for wildcatters),
FINDEL (one for the shopping basket), TRIBAL GROUP (worth a shot)

Express
MOSS BROS (talk of corporate activity refuses to die down) - ML
LABORATORIES (mooted as a possible target for SHIRE PHARMACEUTICALS) -
BIOPROGRESS (speculation it is about to announce a deal with a
Florida-based company) - SCOTTY GROUP (speculation an order from the US
for its Carestation product is imminent) - TARSUS GROUP (talk of strong
trading) - HILL STATION (dealers expect a strong debut on Monday) -
WHO'S DEALING: PENDRAGON (director buys 10,000 shares) - SHARE WHISPER:
DICOM GROUP (thought to be closing in on more deals) - BROKER'S VIEW:
WINCANTON (Credit Suisse keeps its outperform rating and raises target
price to 280 pence from 230)

Mail
LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL (rumours of a share buy-back) - REGUS (IBM bid
rumours) - SPORTINGBET (talk that the 170 mln stg-plus acquisition of an
online poker business in the Caribbean will be rolled out next week) -
RII (a reverse takeover deal is said to be on the agenda) - BIOPROGRESS
(chief executive has this week been at the Tampa, Florida headquarters
of its BioTec Films subsidiary, concluding what is believed to be
another lucrative deal in the Far East) - INVESTMENT EXTRA: Brian
O,Connor comments on Merrill Lynch Investment Managers' World Energy
Fund , XTO ENERGY (compared to its reserves, the shares still look
cheap), PREMIER OIL (has lagged the oil sector by a distance; it is
chasing prize assets off Mauritania, where drilling news is due next
month; Teather & Greenwood values its assets at 715 pence a share)

SUNDAY PRESS COMMENT
The Business
TECHNOLOGY INVESTOR: COLT (comfortably worth 60 pence) - AIM INVESTOR:
NETCALL (buy) - Hilary Cook, director of investment strategy at Barclays
Stockbrokers, comments that house prices have slowed, but crash is
unlikely (p.17) - BENCHMARK: Grant Clelland comments on Coca-Cola
(Coca-Cola decides to play it cool with rival firms),
SAINSBURY/PRUDENTIAL (Pru's chief executive Jonathan Bloomer needs to
take a leaf out of (Justin) King's) book, draw a line under the problems
and rebuild investor faith; Friday's news about the sale of part of the
French business of EGG shows he may be getting the idea; if he doesn't
carry on, the Pru needs to start the search for someone who does), eBay

Sunday Telegraph
BLUE CHIP VALUES: FIRST CALGARY PETROLEUM (better value elsewhere in
the sector and readers should lock in the bulk of their profits now),
CENTRICA (short-term dip is a buying opportunity) - Look who's trading:
PREMIER OIL (finance director sells stock, but the shares are still
worth holding) - SMALL CAP COMMENT: N BROWN (sell), HELPHIRE (keep
buying), SOUTHERN AFRICAN RESOURCES (risky but worth a punt), SDL (buy)
- TAKING STOCK: Edmond Jackson comments on SUPERSCAPE (their should be
plenty of chances to trade these volatile shares for a good profit),
PLANESTATION (becomes a candidate to reduce in my portfolio - in the
event of better ideas)

Mail on Sunday
COMPANIES AND MARKETS: WHITBREAD (cashback on the cards at Whitbread),
WPP (chief executive expected this week to warn that the global
advertising market could see growth slow during 2005), ENNSTONE (a rebel
shareholder tried to hatch a buyout of the group more than a year ago) -
SECRET DEALINGS: HELICAL BAR (veteran investor Jack Petchey has taken a
secret 1.6 pct stake) - MIDAS@ C&C (too lowly rated; buy) - MIDAS
UPDATE: RECKITT BENCKISER (hold on), BOOTS (hold on for now) - TAKING
STOCK: Simon Watkins comments on United Technologies Corporation's bid
approach for KIDDE, STERLING ENERGY (City sources are predicting a major
deal this week), SSL INTERNATIONAL (RECKITT BENCKISER bid now looks
slightly more plausible than it did six months ago)

Sunday Times
JUDGMENT DAY: SHOULD YOU BUY SHARES IN MEGGITT Both Andy Brough, fund
manager at Schroders, and Tim Steer, fund manager at New Star, say buy -
INSIDE THE CITY: PRUDENTIAL (let Pru prove it can boost market share) -
MARKET MOLE: DAIRY CREST (New Star's AA-rated Stephen Whittaker and the
team at Aberforth have pounced since the shares fell to a 311 pence low
last month; the Aberforth team picked up 1.2 mln shares for the
Aberforth UK small Companies investment trust and the Smaller Companies
investment trust; Whittaker added 110,000 shares to the New Star UK
Growth unit trust's stake) - DIRECTORS' DEALS: WH SMITH (chief executive
bought 148,000 shares at 327 pence for about 480,000 stg; finance
director snapped up 50,000 shares at 329 pence, bringing his total
holding to just over 56,000)

Observer
THROG STREET: Richard Wachman comments on BOOTS (no easy walk to Boots
recovery), PILKINGTON (now the company is on a more even keel, major
expansion in the East cannot be far away), UNIQ (City shareholders are
getting more hard-nosed about offers to take companies private)

Sunday Express
COLT TELECOM (struggling Colt may expand into Eastern Europe and a
number of other major Continental cities)
fjb/jlw

angi - 24 Oct 2004 18:06 - 8 of 21

Digger, thank you for this excelent digest of the weekend papers.

daves dazzlers - 24 Oct 2004 19:54 - 9 of 21

Thanks all,as ever an interesting read,nice one storms!!whats it like in the space ship tonight,,must go and slip in to top gear vroommmmmmmm.

Fundamentalist - 24 Oct 2004 20:21 - 10 of 21

Evening all

thanks greystone and especially stormy for a great read

jj50 - 24 Oct 2004 21:39 - 11 of 21

Evening.

Yes, well done Stormie :-)

Big Al - 24 Oct 2004 22:33 - 12 of 21

Evening!

SC - wonderful thoughts and some extremely good advice. Notice you considering CFD's and indices. Interesting idea. I've come a bit full circle, i.e. bought and held shares, moved to spreadbetting SETS and indices and now back trading those "shares", but via CFD's for a bit more clout! ;-)) Don't know if it intertests you, but message me if you need any help, ideas, pitfalls, etc, etc.

Have a good week all!

BTW, back home!

Al
;-)

amberjane - 25 Oct 2004 00:09 - 13 of 21

So glad to have you back in the fold Big Al, but you seem to have bought the wind and gales with you, could you send them back?

Thanks Greystone as always and Stormie. Shame I heard about the Investors Event in Olympia late Stormie as it was a great, informative day out (it was on Sat - another trader phoned me) Loads of seminars on CFD's, spreadbetting, direct access etc and all the brokers were there to talk (and negotiate with). Limpy did a great talk on CFD's and has made me less wary to try them, so despite the weather and train service i was pleased i went. Think it also helped with the diet, had to walk miles and didnt take my chocolate supply!

STORMCALLER - 25 Oct 2004 00:41 - 14 of 21

I feel I must respond and offer my thanks for the kind words, and yet more offers of assistance, all of which proves my point about the excellent membership of this site.
Bullie, you should consider yourself very lucky, they sell it for you!
Big Al,
You have message.
Amberjane,
I would have been unable to make the event anyway as I was already committed, but very pleased you had such a great day! (not sure I would have liked all that walking....lol)

daves dazzlers - 25 Oct 2004 07:36 - 15 of 21

Morning all.

Big Al - 25 Oct 2004 07:39 - 16 of 21

Morning punters!

Many thanks to Greystone, SC for putting together some brilliant stuff and to Ruth for giving me a giggle. ;-)) Glad you're OK!

SC - got message.

CLM - interesting. Bob Morton? Hmm
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410250700033862E.html

SGR - on a nice run. Expanding to the NW? Who'd wanna do that? ;-)
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410250700043938E.html

NAQ - haven't quite met expectations?
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410250700054039E.html

DCM - acquisition
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410250700064044E.html

GED - drilling, nice chart
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410250700074066E.html

VHL - there's a lot of gold companies
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410250700084081E.html

HDG - property fund for private investors
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410250700084080E.html

AU. - Contract
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410250700114103E.html

ALN - interims
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410250700114101E.html

MGGT - acquisition
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410250700124107E.html

RGT - acquisition complete
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410250700144114E.html

MNU - interesting. Nice result yesterday. ;-))
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410250700154116E.html

SKP - useful cash
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410250700154115E.html

SOF - grabbing a few Safeway stores
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410250700174118E.html

MKS - think I said a few months back, I'd have taken Green's 400p
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=482261

Have a good week all.

Big Al - 25 Oct 2004 07:41 - 17 of 21

Hi amber!

You should have seen it out there last week.

Greystone - 25 Oct 2004 07:41 - 18 of 21

Warner Chilcott (WCRX) confirmed today that it has received a takeover offer of 837p per share, valuing the Northern Irish specialty pharmaceutical group at around 1.57bn.

Druid2 - 25 Oct 2004 09:24 - 19 of 21

Morning all. Bad start of the week for those of us who are long!!

little woman - 25 Oct 2004 09:38 - 20 of 21

Morning all,

A quick thanks for everyones contributions.

little woman - 25 Oct 2004 13:57 - 21 of 21

Found 5 min to see what was happening - I see not a lot!


A bit of interest?

NEW YORK (AFX) -- Smith Barney got bullish on the chip sector Monday, boosting its recommendation on 15 stocks in the group around the globe. 'While potentially early, given the continuing onslaught of negative news in the current environment, evidence is mounting to suggest sustainable appreciation in semiconductor stocks is likely, tilting the balnace of risk/reward in favor of investors being overweight the sector as we head into 2005,' analyst Glen Yeung wrote in a research note. The broker noted that semiconductor stocks historically outperform in periods of stabilization like that envisioned for 2005, adding that 'atypically swift corrective action by (the) industry is accelerating the bottoming process.' Among the stocks targeted for upgrades were Texas Instruments , Altera , Integrated Device Technology , Analog Devices and International Rectifier -- all of which were boosted to 'buy' from 'hold.'
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