up another 10% with 3m traded already


gordon geko - 15 Oct'04 - 16:27 - 37 of 41 edit



where too next week ?


Andy - 15 Oct'04 - 17:58 - 38 of 41


gorndon,

well IF the weekend newspapers mention FOGL, we may continue with the rise for a while, but not sure how anyone can predict with any degree of accuracy where the price will end up.

I still feel it has more to go, as there is massive potential here, so may well top up on Monday.


wilbs - 15 Oct'04 - 19:11 - 39 of 41


I agree, there is a masive potential here but not for a few years. DYOR and you will see why. Im gonna buy but will wait till it drops in price.

wilbs


Andy - 15 Oct'04 - 19:44 - 40 of 41


wilbs,

I have DMOR, I have read the prspectus several times.

Potential is what is being traded here, and IF a resource is confirmed, FOGL will race away.

I'm buying now in order to be in at the start, rather than wait for the price to rise against me later, if of course they are sucessful.

Asian Energy is an example of a resource being defined, and look what hapenned there!

I am happy to hold at this level, and as for the price falling, maybe once the initial interest dies diown, unless they release some news of course!

we will see.



wilbs - 17 Oct'04 - 08:34 - 41 of 41


I totaly agree with you andy.

I have bought into many shares too early at a high price only to watch them fall and kick myself as I could of bought them much cheaper.
I will have to keep a close eye on things.

There is a good article on www.oilbarrel.com about FOGL.
Are you also thinking about buying into Hardman, Falkland Island Holdings?

Regards,

wilbs

the oilbarrel article
Falkland Oil & Gas Says Fundraising Oversubcribed
AFX News Limited Wednesday, October 13, 2004


Falkland Oil and Gas Ltd said its offer to raise 2 mln stg via the issue of 5 mln shares at 40 pence each has been oversubscribed. The group said it received applications for 17.45 mln shares, representing 6.98 mln stg. "As a result....applications will not all be settled in full," it said. The minimum subscription under the offer was for 2,500 shares, or 1,000 stg, and all valid applications will receive at least this amount, it added. "Applicants will also receive 12.415 pct of the amount they have applied for in excess of 2,500 shares." In a separate statement, Falkland Islands Holdings PLC said its shareholding will represent 18.1 pct of Falkland Oil and Gas's enlarged share capital.

London-based Falkland Oil & Gas Limited (FOGL) has identified eight leads from existing 2D seismic in its seven licenses off the southern coast of the Falkland Islands, spokesperson Ben Brewerton told BNamericas.

The leads range from 211 million barrels (mb) to 626mb and could contain a total 3.75 billion barrels, Brewerton said. Each of the seven blocks has at least one lead in it.

FOGL identified the leads by re-interpreting 2D seismic work carried out in the 1990s and it plans to redo some of the seismic in December this year, followed by a 3D seismic program in 2005.

The company could then consider farming-in a partner to help fund drilling on specific targets in 2006-2007, Brewerton said.

To fund the 3D program, FOGL announced it has raised 10mn pounds (US$18mn) through a private placement of 25 million shares at 40 pence per share, FOGL said in a statement.

FOGL has announced a public offering of a further 5 million shares at 40p/share, which must be subscribed by October 12.

If the offer is fully subscribed, FOGL will raise an additional 2mn pounds before expenses, meaning that the net proceeds of the placing and offer will be about 11mn pounds. The company would then list on London's junior AIM market with a market value of 32mn pounds.

Dealings in the shares are expected to start October 14. KBC Peel Hunt has been appointed as nominated adviser and broker to FOGL.

FOGL was formed in May 2004 as a joint venture between Falkland Islands Holdings, Global Petroleum and RAB Special Situations.

Shareholdings in FOGL prior to the placing and offer are: Falkland Islands Holdings 28.9%; Global Petroleum 25.7%; and RAB Special Situations 45.4%.

FOGL has a 77.5% interest in seven exploration licenses covering approximately 33,700 sq. km. to the south of the Falkland Islands. Australia's Hardman Resources has the remaining 22.5% interest.

About Business News Americas: Business News Americas is a multilingual news and business information service that covers the most important original stories in 11 different business sectors throughout Latin America everyday. Visit BNamericas to access our real-time news reports, 7-year archive, Fact File company

Falkland Oil and Gas Ltd said it placed 25 mln shares at 40 pence each to raise 10 mln stg before expenses.

The company, which expects its shares to begin trading on the Alternative Investment Market on Oct 14, also announces a public offer of a further 5 mln shares at 40p a share. Assuming the maximum number of shares available are subscribed, it will raise an additional 2 mln stg before expenses.

Falkland Oil, which holds a 77.5 pct interest in seven exploration licences covering about 33,700 sq km to the south and east of the Falkland Islands, will have a market capitalisation of 32 mln stg on admission to AIM and net proceeds from the placing and offer will be about 11 mln stg.

Following the placing, Falkland Islands Holdings PLC's interest in Falkland Oil will be 18.1 pct.

Thanks for attaching the oilbarrel article, wilbs

This is been heavily tipped as the next big thing. It's been an impressive start to stock market life but this will fly on any positive news. I believe that some news will be released in the short term. The professional money always backs a winner. There are too many people backing this for FOGL to fail. I can see this going to 1 by Christmas.

Great recommendation - I will be buying in tomorrow

seems to be stalling got out at 60p netting 20% great prospects
but think the 'rally' stalling IMHO also plenty of other sellers today

Finished with 1.2 million buys vs 800k sells... some chunky buys early doors, but a mini sell off later. A broker friend says he has his clients in and will continue to buy up to 65 with a sell limit of 70p... What do you guys think? Still upside? Looks like early dorrs will be able to pick them up at circa 58 and change....

Just bought 15000 shares @ 51.49 reported on
the trade board as a sell... lots of trades
at the same price.. do we have an anomily on
reporting this am?

Several trades went through at the same price..

Just cleared up...apparrently the system
calculates whethre it is below the mid and
reports a sell...

Surprised nobody has spotted this encouraging news!!!!


Falkland Oil and Gas Limited
20 October 2004


Falkland Oil and Gas Limited (the 'Company')
Holding in Company


The Company was informed on 19 October 2004 that on 14 October 2004, Morgan
Stanley Securities Limited ('MSSL') acquired an interest in its Ordinary Shares
of 0.002p ('Ordinary Shares') that resulted in a total holding of 2,500,000
Ordinary Shares, representing 3.125 per cent. of the current issued share
capital.

MSSL is a member of the Morgan Stanley group of companies. Those group companies which are direct or indirect holding companies of MSSL are, under the terms of section 203 of the Companies Act 1985, each interested by attribution in any shares in which MSSL is interested.


20 October 2004

ENQUIRIES:

College Hill 020 7457 2020
Tony Friend / Ben Brewerton

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd 020 7418 8900
David Davies/ Jonathan Marren



This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

FOGL will go up next week judging its strong performance

hlyeo98,

well I have to disagree, as I expect a FALL!

This is due to the certificates being posted this week, and the cynic in me expects the MM's to walk the price down as some holders will take the opportunity to sell and bank a decent profit.

Once this is out of the way, I then expect a strong increase, due in part to the rather limited stock available, but this may well take a couple of weeeks to work through.

The Morgan Stanley stake of 2,500,000 is good news, shows the demand for this stock is there IMHO.

will be watching for fall and poss back in next week sub 50p anyone also watching EEN ??? too cheap at the minute forward p/e of 10

The US government calls the Straight of Hormuz an "oil choke point". And with good reason. Nearly 16 million barrels of oil travel in tankers every day through this narrow channel of water geographically dominated by Iran. That's almost 90% of all Middle East oil exports, which are essential to western Europe, Japan, and America. Still wondering why nuclear negotiations with Iran are so delicate, and why the oil price looks secure above $50?

The oil price could reach $80 by the end of 2004. Yet massive reserves - estimated to be the sixth largest in the world - lie untapped beneath the South Atlantic ocean. No choke point would block its transport to Europe, Japan or the US. So DESIRE and Falkland Islands Oil & Gas will be ready soon to deliver these urgently required oil barrels and both companies will be worth a fortune. OIL is also heading for $US100 dollers a barrel in 2005 and who knows what price oil will be in 2006 when these companies start lifting the oil THE POTENTIAL IS HUGE AND THE OIL IS THEIR JUST WAITING.

FOGL is shooting up fast - now 61.5p as I predicted last week. Strong buy - will reach 1 by December.

Now 64p...more uptrend. 1 on the way!

84p TODAY...MORE UPTREND AS OIL FIND IS IMPRESSIVE

NEW ISSUE: BUY - Falkland Gold and Minerals (FGML) at 40p.

FGML floats on Aim in the first week of December, its sister company Falkland Oil and Gas also floated at 40p on 13th October 2004, hit 59p on day one and is now up at 78p or 95% only 4 weeks later!! The public offer was so over subscribed that investors only received a tiny proportion of their application

You can't compare a oil expo company like FOGL to FGML.

not going to compare them but the process is much the same just letting people know of new float it might be of interest to some on the BB

FOGL share holders waiting for news

Great news coming on the way

hyleo,

Care to expand on that statement a bit?

80.5p now...will be going up further.

hyleo,

Well we retraced a bit after a terrific rise, but still an excellent day!

Would appreciate a comment on reasons for your comments, as you seem confident.

By all means use the private message facility here at AM if you don't want to post online.

hlyeo98 - here you are again - on all the nicest boards, of course - and Andy, as well - good evening. I subscribed on issue and got as small handful of these shares which I intend to hold very tightly through thick and thin, at least till the first gusher is announced.

Nice RNS about seismic work on-going, well timed to coincide for fresh testings of upper $40's per barrell - the old one-two to help put a bit of vim back in the SP.

Sven Lorenz set out an interesting thesis in one of hit teasers for his tipsheet - can't find it on my computer - got it somewhere. Anyway oil reserves have been well documented in Falklands since the 60's but only now when oil price seems set to stay in the $40 and above ($100?) rnage is it economical to extract and transport (it's a bloody long wagy to Goose Green - have you seen the map?)

It's going to be a rough old ride until drilling starts and then some. But the oild price should be in its stride as the first barrell flows I reckon. But look who's on baord too - Hardman from Oz, RAB special sits fund from London - they don't waste their time do they?

A bit like being at sea - very, very boring interspersed with moments of wild panic!

Ahoy me heartys (sorry starting to sound like Seadog, must remember who I am)

SD

Thought you might be intereted in this extract from Sven Lorenz (Special Situations Analyst for Fleet Street Publications) free email today. He first alerted me to the opportunities last October and I am in all three Oil, Gold and Holdings - first two at subscription price, third one - don't ask!! but holding nicely thank you. By the way Holdings is absolutely at top up fillyerboots level IMHO if you want more exposure after a recent large sale by director at weirdly low price 450p - what happened there I wonder . . .

"This week there's been news on two of the Falklands
Island shares I write about in this report but the real
fireworks are yet to come. All three shares on this
unique investment story are still beneath my buy limit
price but they won't be for much longer. Survey
results are showing positive signs and drilling could
well start this year drilling that could catapult the
Falklands into the league of major oil producing
regions.

When that happens, these companies and anyone who
invests in them at current bargain prices will make
serious money. I hope you'll be taking part in this
and some of my future investment ideas.

Until next Friday, all the best,

Sven Lorenz
Special Situations Analyst"

I also bought another of his tips today - he's always interesting and has a high reputation as an international n-bagger profit hunter. As ever DYOR.


SD

Stockdog,

Thanks for posting that, I feel FOGL is going to reward the patient in due course, but it will take time.

Nice little tick up today,approaching all time high again.

Andy
100% gain since floatation is a little better than "in due course" - or were you merely referring to the triple and quadruple gains we'll get when oil flows? I'm in till then at least.
SD

up again...86p

The RNS today may have helped. Doesn't say an awful lot, but puts the company back in the public arena. Also March oil back above $50 in NY, Brent close behind. Funny, I don't seem to feel the cold like I used to!

SD

RNS Number:9770I
Hardman Resources Limited
24 February 2005

STOCK EXCHANGE / MEDIA RELEASE

RELEASE DATE: 24 February 2005

CONTACT: Scott Spencer

TELEPHONE: Within Australia: 08 9261 7600
International: +61 8 9261 7600

RE: FALKLANDS LICENCE AREAS: UPDATE

Hardman Resources has been advised by the operator Falkland Oil and Gas Ltd
("FOGL") that it has completed recording approximately 85% of the planned 4,900
kilometre 2D seismic survey in their 33,000 square kilometre licence areas to
the south and east of the Falkland Islands (Hardman (22.5%) is in joint venture
with FOGL (77.5%)). The vessel "GSI Admiral" has moved temporarily to the
northern licence area where FOGL holds 100% and it is expected the Hardman
licence area data acquisition will be completed during March.

A preliminary review of the early processed sections of the lines recorded thus
far has provided further information on identified leads in the Hardman/FOGL
area and has also identified several additional leads which could warrant
further work.

Full processing of these lines will take place over the coming months.

The fully processed and interpreted results of the entire survey are expected to
begin to be available about mid year.

Simon Potter, CEO and Managing Director, Hardman Resources, commented:

"This is a continuation of our exploration strategy with a low cost entry into
frontier areas with known oil potential followed by high impact exploration
using seismic techniques. The overall indications from the data we have received
to date are encouraging. We are looking forward to completing the balance of the
survey and in due course fully assessing the results of this work."



SCOTT SPENCER
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

stockdog,

Yes, I was referring to the future, rather than the 100% gain we have already enjoyed.

Thanks for the RNS, seems positive in a vague sort of way, conservatively worded, which suits me.

To the future - well, said, Andy

Nicely up 4p to a new high of 87 bid against the trend today.

Whispers of announcements to come from HNR who own 30ish% of FOGL's southerly exploration licence.

Happy to balance a down day on DOO (not surprosing she stopped for a breather!)

SD

Holding on tight to FOGL. New high today

What's with FOGL - up 9p today to a clear new high. Holding tight.

hlyeo98 - it seems like a good year for you so far - FOGL, BFC, DOO - me too!

SD

Another 8p higher - 17p total - still no news, except oil @ $53 per barrell. 2.5 X float price and not a drilling barge in sight yet - what will it be worth when they start drilling?

And not a soul out on the boards - where are you all? Counting your money???

SD

stockdog,

yes a terrific day for FOGL holders, and hardly a comment here!

no news (YET) to justify the sudden increase, but someone must think they know something!

I top sliced and let the profit ride, along with quite a few others probably, so stock may well be scarce IMHO.

There was an oil analyst interviewed this morning on CNBC. He talked about 2 companies, BUR and FOGL so might have something to do with FOGL's rise today.

Stockdog, I think there is some news not announced yet for FOGL...It will ride higher

Up 14p now...going higher

Have taken out my original cost of investment at 3 X what I paid for it, leaving the rest to ride - being sensible for once.

Well done, stockdog. Good luck on the rest

Well done, stockdog. Good luck on the rest

Hi u769869

Thanks for your email. Cant email you back as you didnt give me your email address so I'll just post here. I posted the following on TMF last night in response to a question, hope some of it helps answer your question.

This morning on CNBC, there was an oil analyst being interviewed with regard to the small cap E & P's. I didn't catch his name so can't help you there. He gave a very brief overview as to how the small cap sector works and the importance of drilling to shore up reserves.

He mentioned 2 companies that he liked, BUR and FOGL. Talked briefly about BUR's operations and then FOGL's. With regard to FOGL, he talked about 2d seismic having been shot in the Falklands at a cost if I remember correctly of 12m, which was paid for by the founders of the company. On screen, they brought up the usual charts showing the sp progress over the last few months for both companies, so perhaps that interview had something to do with FOGL's rise today.

Hope some of that helps.

Cheers

Gav

Hi Gav - thanks very much for taking the time to reply.

All the best
John

Huge rise today.

Interesting to see whether we breach the 120p peak this week, which otherwise will settle in as an established reistance level.

MMs seem happy to offload some of their stock at this recently elevated price, judging by the consistent solid buying ourweighing smaller sells - suggests after that is done to their satisfaction they may be happy to let the price drift downwards again, followed by a bit of a tree shake to rebuild their stocks prior to the next significant news (there can't be that much other than regular progress and the occasional seismic report on the new licence area before drillng gets underway) of the next hike in oil proces above its $55 level recently regained.

Having sold my initial stake's worth at the peak, I am quite content to catch a re-buying opportunity below 100p, before the next ascent to new levels.

So another one to watch and wait - like so much at present.

SD

I do not think FOGL will slide below 100p.

Happy if, happy if not - in general, quite happy!

SD

I note their partner Global Petroleum Ltd (LSE: GBP) (GBP owns a 16% interest in FOGL) started trading on LSE AIM last week.

Bear in mind GBP also has a 20% interest in the blocks that Woodside Pet are going to drill this year offshore Kenya and that drill costs to GBP are fully funded.

Could this be the next 3 bagger on the heels of FOGL!!

GBP's fallen off a cliff from listing at 44.5p on 7th March in a straight line to today's close of 26.5p - what went wrong, or did KBC Peel Hunt just get the pricing wrong?

Any thoughts - should we stand and watch for a while, or should we be filling our boots with an obviously interesting company?

SD

FOGL has broken the 120p barrier...now 125p...its next target is 140p.

and BFC have broken 300 and DOO have broken 500, hlyeo88 - very nice to see.

now all we need is SEY to get of its fat arse too.

GBP may have fallen off a cliff after joining AIM last week but in step with senior partner FOGL, has gone north by over 8% today and have bought in at 29p. Could well be an interesting ride.

Cheers, Mike

GBP RNS'd their interims to 31st december today. Haven't read yet, but should be interesting.

Good play Mike - would have done so myself yeseterday on instinct alone, but I have sworn not to put any more cash into my portfolio till I've earned it.

Could be an interesting play to take some prfits out of the top of FOGL and start at the bottom again with GBP, although I suspect FGML will hinder it's oil prospects until they discover if there is gold in them thar hills.

SD

Yes, Stockdog, I think SEY will be surging soon. DES is still staying put while FOGL has been growing strongly. Come on, DES, do your thing!

Latest news on FOGL's Falklands prospects

RNS Number:7745L
Global Petroleum Ltd
03 May 2005

3 May 2005

Global Petroleum Limited ('Global')

ANNOUNCEMENT RE: FALKLAND OIL AND GAS LIMITED

Global Petroleum Limited (AIM / ASX: GBP), an Australian-based oil and gas
exploration company, advises that Falkland Oil and Gas Limited (FOGL) made the
attached release on the 3rd of May 2005.

This announcement suggests that Global's 16.06% shareholding (i.e. 12.848
million shares) in FOGL could potentially have quite significant value for
Global shareholders. A FOGL share price of #1/share translates to approximately
19c per Global share (GBP 8p/Global share).

Further information about FOGL's Falkland Island Oil & Gas Project can be found
in a presentation that FOGL has posted on its website www.fogl.co.uk

Further information:

Global Petroleum Limited
Dr John Armstrong, Executive Chairman +61 (0) 7 3211 1122

Bell Pottinger Corporate & Financial
Nick Lambert +44 (0) 7811 358 764

Tuesday 3rd May 2005

Falkland Oil and Gas Limited

("FOGL" or "the company")

Significant increase in number of identified leads

Enhanced possibility of a new petroleum province
in the South and East Falkland Basins

FOGL announces that it has completed its current 9,450 km 2D seismic data
acquisition programme over most of its licence area. The initial interpretation
of the preliminary processed records from the survey has proved encouraging and
greatly exceeds the Company's initial expectations.

The programme has indicated a larger and more diverse project than originally
anticipated and has identified numerous possible drill targets, with indications
that some could potentially be of significant size.

FOGL has now identified approximately 130 leads,(1) far in excess of the eight
(8) leads identified at the time of its AIM IPO in October 2004. Given the
positive results of the survey, FOGL now plans to increase the scope of its
exploration programme far beyond that envisaged at the time of the IPO.

Key points:

* Approximately 130 leads identified, a number of which appear capable of
containing recoverable reserves in excess of 200 million barrels

* FOGL now represents a larger and more diverse project than originally
anticipated

* Encouraging signs that oil and gas could be present

* Further work is planned targeting defining 20 drillable prospects by
about mid-2006

* FOGL is targeting drilling of the first well in 2007

* Already an enhanced possibility of project success

* Licences cover area equivalent to the North Sea Southern Gas Basin and
Central Graben

* Cash position of #10.9 million as at 31 March 2005. FOGL is evaluating
its funding requirements and the source of funds for the increased exploration
programme

John Armstrong, Executive Chairman of FOGL, said:

"In my opinion, this is the most exciting project I've seen for many years. The
results of the 2D seismic are encouraging; the number of leads identified has
far exceeded our most optimistic estimates and we believe it has greatly
enhanced FOGL's prospects. It is clear that the scope of work needed to maximise
the potential of our acreages has increased significantly.

"It is important to remember that, while the leads identified to date each have
seismic expression which indicates the possible presence of a drillable
prospect, when fully mapped, and with the benefit of further data, such leads
may not have all the characteristics necessary to become drillable prospects.
Nevertheless, the large number of leads distributed across several playtypes
suggests that a number of the leads could become technically sound and
potentially economically viable drill prospects. It is the Company's goal to
identify and define 20 such prospects in the immediate future so that they can
be considered for drilling in 2007.

"We have made a lot of progress in the six months since our AIM IPO and the
results to date have been remarkable. Although there is a long way to go, it now
seems quite possible that the Falkland Islands could become a new petroleum
province by the end of the decade."

Hydrocarbon Indicators

Initial interpretation of the new data gives considerable cause for optimism.
The preliminary results of the survey identify numerous Direct Hydrocarbon
Indicators (DHI's) pointing to the presence of working petroleum systems. The
DHI's include gas chimneys, amplitudes and possibly gas hydrates. The leads are
large and diverse, with some leads possibly covering areas of 300 to 500 sq km,
sufficient to hold large reserves of oil or gas. There is also a wide range of
play types with several different styles identified.

Exploration Programme & Funding Arrangements

FOGL plans to conduct further seismic surveys targeting all the leads but with
particular emphasis on the approximately 50 most promising. The aim will be to
develop 20 high quality, technically sound and potentially economically viable
drilling prospects. The Company then intends to develop a multi-well drilling
programme which may be able to begin in 2007.

Full details of the exploration programme are still to be finalised but given
the increased number of identified leads the company expects to expand
significantly the scope of the exploration programme.

Although FOGL had net cash of #10.9 million as at 31 March 2005, the increased
scope of the programme will require additional funding and the Board is
currently considering its options. A further statement on the funding
arrangements and the full details of the programme will be announced soon.

Potential Resources

The extent and depth of the basin suggests that, if it exists, the hydrocarbon
resource could be of a major scale. According to estimates by MBA Petroleum
Consultants, an independent consultant, 1,250 billion barrels of oil / oil
equivalent could have been generated in and in the vicinity of FOGL's licences.

Scott Pickford, petroleum engineers, made an independent assessment of the
initial eight (8) leads and concluded that each had the potential to contain
between 200 million and 600 million barrels of recoverable oil(2). It is
expected that Scott Pickford will be contracted to repeat the process and make
an independent judgement on the potential resources indicated by the new data.
Its findings will be announced on completion of the processing and
interpretation which is expected to be in the third quarter of this year.

An overview presentation will be posted on the FOGL website giving a summary of
the results announced here. Technical information including maps and seismic
lines will be posted on the Company's website in the near future.

www.fogl.co.uk

Enquiries:

FOGL

John Armstrong, Executive Chairman + 61 (0) 7 3211 1122 (+9 hrs GMT)
David Hudd, Deputy Chairman 07771 893 267

College Hill
Ben Brewerton 020 7457 2020

(1) a 'lead' is a feature that requires further technical appraisal prior to a
decision to drill

(2) P50 recoverable oil as estimated by Scott Pickford, a consultancy
specialising in geology, petroleum engineering and economic analyses, in 2004
(IPO Prospectus)

Falkland sounds upbeat note
James Rossiter, Evening Standard
20 May 2005
THE head of Falkland Oil and Gas was today gushing with confidence about prospects within the old 200-mile exclusion zone mapped out around the islands during Britain's 1982 war with Argentina.
No drilling is targeted before 2007 yet the chairman of the Aim-listed firm, John Armstrong, said today: 'This is the most exciting project I've been involved in for some years and there is a real chance the Falkland Islands will become a new petroleum province.'
His enthusiasm comes barely a day after City analysts called for executives at Britain's growing number of exploration companies to temper their upbeat statements following the 60% slump in Regal Petroleum's shares on Wednesday.
Regal founder Frank Timis is quitting as chief executive following the dramatic revelation this week that, after a series of drilling tests, it will not be able to extract commercial quantities of oil from its Greek Kallirachi-2 project.
But Falkland deputy chairman David Hudd insisted his firm's prospects for finding oil were on course as he confirmed other oil companies had approached it to help finance the exploration of its 329 blocks.
Falkland is sitting on 11m of cash after raising 12m from its Aim listing last September.
Hudd said: 'I am not saying there is necessarily oil but leads are much better than when we floated the company.
'We started off with eight leads. There are now 130 on which further work could be done - some of which could become a prospect and then we can decide if we will drill.'
Delivering a 293,692 pre-tax loss for its 10 months' trading to 31 March, he added: 'We have looked at other companies in the sector which have attracted adverse publicity and we are certainly not doing anything other than being conservative.'
Falkland's biggest shareholder are funds controlled by RAB Capital, also a big investor in Sudan oil explorer White Nile, due to restart trading on Aim on Monday.
******************
Hope this helps trading on Monday in both FOGL and GBP shares.

RNS Number:7536M
Global Petroleum Ltd
25 May 2005


25 May 2005

Global Petroleum Limited

Falkland Oil and Gas Limited - Preliminary Results

ASX-listed oil and gas explorer Global Petroleum Limited (GBP) advises that
Falkland Oil and Gas Limited ("FOGL") released its Preliminary Results, for the
period ended 31 March 2005, on 20 May 2005.

Global's shareholding in FOGL is 16.06% or 12.848 million shares.

The full release is available at: www.fogl.co.uk

Further information:

Global Petroleum Limited
Dr John Armstrong, Executive Chairman +61 (0) 7 3211 1122

Bell Pottinger Corporate & Financial
Nick Lambert +44 (0) 20 7861 3232

I fancy this report has all the Majors eying the action offshore Falklands and Kenya when BP says global oil reserves growth stalled in 2004. Another sound reason to be in FOGL and GBP at the moment I think!!


BP says global oil reserves growth stalled in 2004
Tue 14 Jun, 2005 15:09
By Tom Bergin, European Oil and Gas Correspondent

LONDON (Reuters) - Growth in the world's oil and gas reserves stalled last year, a report from oil giant BP showed on Tuesday, bucking a trend that has historically seen new discoveries more than match production.

The BP Statistical Review of World Energy, compiled from official government figures, will reinforce concerns about the ability of global oil supplies to match surging consumption, which grew 3.4 percent in 2004.
The world had 1,188.6 billion barrels of oil reserves at the end of 2004, compared to 1,188.3 billion at the end of 2003, BP, the world's second largest oil firm by market capitalisation, said.

The 0.02 percent growth rate was the lowest since 1990 and compares with a 10-year average above 1.5 percent per annum.

Last year's almost imperceptible rise in oil reserves came despite high prices, which normally help by encouraging new exploration and by making previously uneconomic resources commercial.

Gas fared only slightly better with reserves growing 0.18 percent, but this was the lowest growth rate in over 20 years, and well below the 10-year average of more than 2 percent each year.

The figures contrast with BP's view, regularly voiced by Chief Executive John Browne, that the world is not facing a supply crunch.

However, the data echoes the oil majors' own difficulties in finding oil. Last year, the biggest international firms replaced around 70 percent of the oil and gas they pumped with new finds, analysts said.

Even BP, one of the better explorers in the industry, failed to achieve the 100 percent reserve replacement ratio that shows a firm's resource base is not shrinking.
The report also points to another worrying trend for the oil majors. The gap between their anaemic reserve replacement ratio and an effective 100 percent ratio globally supports investors' fears that the biggest oil companies will lose market share.

Analysts have predicted firms like BP and U.S. rival Exxon Mobil will become increasingly constrained in finding new exploration opportunities in the future because the biggest hydrocarbon reserves look set to be controlled by state-owned oil and gas companies in Russia, Venezuela and the Gulf states.

BP cautioned that pundits have been predicting the imminent depletion of reserves for a century and added that since different governments use different methodologies to calculate proved reserves, it is hard to draw inferences from its review, which is published annually.

mmiller555,

Two good rises in two days, makes me feel some news is imminnent!

My bet would be a JV with a major to finance the 3D seismic, and maybe they will just go aead and drill one or two of the most promising 2D targets, if they can obtain a rig of course.

I may even top up a little tomorrow, will wait and see how we start.

Have you read the joint CEO of RAB Special Situations Fund interview in Money Week last week? He recokons this could give you 30 X return (or something massive - sorry not at my desk).

I subscribed on issue and top sliced at 120p. I bought back in again and more at 99.5p yesterday (having missed 91p by 20 minutes first thing in the morning).

This is definitely one to accuumulate.

sd

Stockdog,

Yes I think you are correct there, FOGL has massive potential, and RAB are no slouches when it comes to spotting potential IMO.

I have seen a FOGL presentation, and they are quietly confident that they will find a substantial resource.

RAB started with 45% - have top-sliced since, but still hold 30% of FOGL's equity - pretty committed and they made 2000% return (!) since 2003 on their fund. With a no holds barred fund, they choose FOGL as a major holding - they're no fools.

sd

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=649625

permite me to put the direct link in, inbsuk

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=649625

inbsuk, stockdog,

Thanks, very interesting.

I like the last couple of lines in that article. It sounds as though "hedge fund wives" are similar creatures to footballers wives.

Progress Report Friday 1 July 2005

Falkland Oil and Gas Limited (FOGL) reports that as of the 1st of July 2005,
1,641 km of the approximately 8,000 km total had been recorded. For five days
of the past week, the vessel has been transiting to Punta Arenas for a port call.

Short/Medium terms weakness looks evident.

I think one is on the cards, an opportunity to add soon.

Anyone care to differ?

ariesr - 120 does seem to be a bit of a resistance level, needing some more substantial good news than 2D-seismic progress - like 2D-seismic results would help. So yes it may now drfit lower back to its recent double bottom support level at 87/8p where I last topped up (except I was away from my desk for 20 minutes on the day and only got in at 99p when I got back!).

So with a 30p range to play with could be a good one to spread bet - are there any firms offering this stock?

Otherwise it has to be a long term hold at almost any current price - see Moneyweek's report on RAB Special Situations a coouple of weeks ago. FOGL currently valued at $240m, could be worth $80bn when oil flows in a couple of years time.

So yes, buy on dips below 100p - as much as you can - and hold for a couple of years IMHO.

sd

Ariesr,

On the price action today, I care to differ!

Andy - the SP seems to have successfully punctured the 120p resistance today, but then I wrote my last post yesterday on a falling price. Is that the difference you mentioned, or did you disagree with some other part of my thinking? Interested to hear. I expect further upward action tomorrow, since we ended on an EOD high today.

sd

Stockdog,

I just think the potential here is so huge that with the current high price of oil, FOGL will stay around this level, or even trade higher on anticipation of any news.

Having seen a recent FOGL presentation, I left feeling very optimistic regarding their chances.

I think there are a lot of holders from the float that will hold for the longer term, and BATR, so the free float here is small IMHO.



The chart suggests the downtrend was broken mid June IMO, but it's interesting that we broke 120 today after three previous failures, now we need to see if it an hold above 120p, then previous resistance may become support.

duplicate.

Anyone know why the drop over the last 3 days?

RAB Capital plc sold 108m shares in FAO it was reported today (albeit Capital Group Companies bought 118m also reported) and I read elsewhere that RAB have been offloading equities in general. I know they were a big holder in FOGL so perhaps their offloading of FOGL shares has caused the mark down.

RAB are very aggressive growth fund with an enormous speculative exposure to oil/mining.

Although their CEO did say in MoneyWeek a few weeks back they were holding for FOGL to go from market cap of 240m to NVP of 80bn! They had already top-sliced.

Maybe they read the stock market is going to go down over the next few months - it has been promised from a number of quarters prior to the surprising lease of life coincidentally commencing July 7th after the minor dip for the London bombings.

Qui sait?

sd

FOGL's partner GBP has gone North 16.3% today, don't know what's caused the jump.

Anyone know the reasons for the very welcome lift in GBP today?

mmiller555,

No news that i could see, but maybe some buying in now they can see the float price is solid?

FOGL has a nice 2.5p rise so far today.

mmiler555,

Another good rise today, 4.5p, and decent volume, (550,000) too!

All,

Is anyone interested in visiting the FOGL Chart Room this Friday?

The location is Central London.

The time is scheduled for 11:00, although this is subject to final confirmation.

John Armstrong, Executive Chairman, will be there.

If you are interested, please send me the following details to

theyarenotgreen@hotmail.com

Your BB poster id

Your real name

Telephone contact for daytime and evening tomorrow.

I will confirm the time and location directly once these are finalised.

IMHO, This is an excellent opportunity to see where FOGL are, and meet John Armstrong for a quick Q & A in person.

DUE to this being squeezed in, the visit duration will be limited to 20 - 30 minutes as John is very busy.


Andy.

Andy
Sorry not to be ther - too busy. Be interested in your report back, please.
Thanks
sd

Andy,missed your post as I dont visit this site very often.Have been a holder now for about 3months for long term investment.Anything to report with regard to your visit?

Good news on it's way guys.

A recent presentation he did (ie Armstrong)is covered on oilbarrel.com

rgrds
gk

The early bird also gets the prime acreage - that, it appeared, was the message from John Armstrong, the bullish executive chairman of Falklands Oil and Gas and Global Petroleum. Both companies, described by Armstrong as micro-caps, are targeting frontier plays with massive exploration upside but which also carry the downside of untested geology and expensive deepwater drilling.



John Armstrong, Executive Chairman of FOGL and Global Petroleum

In Kenya this downside is limited for Global, which will see its costs carried through the first two wells by partners Woodside (operator with 50 per cent) and Dana (30 per cent). Over 30 leads, ranging in size from 20 to 100 sq km, have been identified on two blocks, L5 and L7.

Water depths are challenging out here - between 1,600 and 2,800 metres - and Armstrong doesnt expect the joint venture to see much change from US$100 million when it drills its first two deepwater wells. But he believes the potential prize more than offsets the investment risk.

If you fill each of these 30 to 50 leads with several hundred feet of oil pay then youve got a potential 20 million barrels, said Armstrong, although he admitted he was unsure how to risk such a project.

As always the drillbit will be the real test. The partners hope to drill here in either the second or third quarters of 2006 and the most likely structures to be tested are Pomboo and Sokwe, relatively simple structures with the potential to hold a billion barrels of crude - each.

Armstrongs other company, Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL), has been a successful early bird in the southern Atlantic, where the AIM-quoted firm has scooped 79,000 sq km of frontier exploration acreage to the south and east of the Falkland Islands. This is an area equivalent to 312 North Sea blocks and FOGL has an average of 90 per cent equity. Over 130 leads have been identified here, some of which weigh in at 1,200 sq km.

Armstrong said this is an area that has been overlooked by the oil industry because water depths (between 500 and 1,500 metres) were previously out of reach, it is very remote and there was a hangover from the disappointing drilling campaign of the late 1990s in the North Falklands Basin, which has a completely different geological make-up.

FOGL is actively working up its acreage with a major 2D seismic campaign: as of Wednesday it had completed 10,300 km out of the planned 15,000 km shoot. This follows on from an earlier 9,450 km survey, which identified more than 130 leads: the current 2D campaign is designed to narrow this down to a short list of the 20 most prospective structures.

Before moving into the drilling phase of the exploration programme, FOGL plans to bring in partners with the necessary deep pockets and deepwater expertise. It has opened a data room in London to showcase 14 quadrants and part quadrants and is talking to the oil majors - all the usual suspects, including those burnt in the disappointing North Falklands campaign.



We would like to complete one of these farm-outs in the next three to six months, with drilling targeted for late 2007, said Armstrong. He dismissed concerns that a gas strike would be unworkable in these remote waters, pointing to the booming LNG market in the Atlantic Basin. Gas may be the second prize but its not too far behind the first prize [oil], he told delegates.

We went round the FOGL Chart Room last Friday.

We were greeted by J. Armstrong, and given a friendly welcome, and tour by the staff.

I was surprised at the size of the office, and team employed there, and saw the historical charts and modern seismic being studied.

Some of the charts are some 25 years old, but in incredible detail, and are about 12 feet long, covering some 500 miles or so of seabed.

As a follow up from the Oilbarrel presentation, I was left with a warm feeling here, and feel there is a very real prospect of success.

The difficulty in obtaining a rig was discussed, and of course a farminee with a suitbale deep water rig would of course make things more favourable! :-)

The difficulties experienced by DES were mentioned, but are of course unrelated to FOGL being able to obtain one.

The FOGL Oilbarrel presentation is available http://www.oil-barrel.com/conference/nov/FOGL.pdfHERE

Good jump today anyone know why?

Mad,

Well there was decent volume, and nearly all buys.

Looks like the 2 x 50,000 buys, (wrongy listed as sells!) did the moving, buys outnumbered sells by 8 : 1

Perhaps prelims from FGML reminded everyone that an 83m company is sitting on 2.4bn of future worth?? (as per RAB MD's figures quoted a few months ago, if I remember correctly)

sd

Price hike could have something to with Shell lifting its annual spending to 10.8bn,citing increasing costs and THE NEED TO FIND NEW OIL AND GAS RESERVES.

stockdog,

I think you wil find that is (possibly) 24 million BARRELS OF OIL, not pounds sterling!

Multiply by $50 per barrel, less expenses, makes a tidy sum IMO.

Does anyone know 1.How many rigs are drilling on behalf of FOGL2.When are drilling results due.Thanks in anticipation.

Mad Pad - read the acccounts - drillling first well anticipated 2007

sd

mad pad,

There are only 30 deep water rigs in the world that can drill the depths required here.

FOGL are looking for a farminee with access to such a rig, and expect news Q1/2 2006.

Interesting article,click here!

Write up in current IC,page 51.

what does IC say?

Scot"high enough".

Why the rise today or are people just begining to realise the enourmous potential of this company?

lol high enough?- you `aint seen the depths yet

SHORT!!!!

Blinger maybe you should tell that to RAB Capital!

mad pad,

Exactly!

Actually, I think most people hold FOGL as a speculative share within a balanced portfolio, along with some oil and gas producers.

I certainly do, and they have so much potential I won't be selling until they have drilled the most promising prospects.

FOGL is a small part of my portfolio, I have mainly oil and gas producers, and FOGL and Concorde as my speculations. Concorde are due to become a producer soon, so FOGL is a small risk for me, and my shares are all free after I top sliced my holding from the placing.

A long term hold IMO, and we may see some drilling in 2007.

Andy why not add Aminex?

Woodside have secured the offshore rig the Jack Bates from Transocean for 2 years. Could this be for FOGL,I can't find out?(hence the sharp rise?).Any one know?

mad pad,

Not sure what is driving the SP up so much.

Woodside are not currently a partner of FOGL, so unless they are about to announce a JV, I can't see why that rig would be for FOGL. Hardman are the Australian JV partner of FOGL in most of the Falkland licences.

A 10p rise today is most welcome however, and a new all time high for FOGL!

Hi Andy, meant to get in this one this week, but can't be in them all or I'll be spread to thin.......

Andy ,got my wires crossed yesterday ,I was thinking of Global Petroleum who hope to drill in the near future off Kenya and are of course shareholders in FOGL.Anyone any idea why the rise?

mad pad,

No worries, you had me confused for a minute there!


What a rise on FOGL today!

20.5p, or 13.62% today, and that onm top of a decent rise yesterday too!

FOGL will have to issue an RNS soon, either to deny there is any reason for the rise in price, or to confirm news.

Incredible - in since float, so looking at 300% + gain.

There is a lot further to go, when oil flows - until then who knows where or why this will go short term. Only 25% of the shares are free, the rest being held by RAB Capital, so any demand will exagerate the SP movement (and vice versa, no doubt).

sd

Stockdog,RAB Capital,Falkland Islands Holdings and Global Petroleum are all major shareholders.

Yes, but RAB hold about 75% under an agreement whereby they do not have to or yet intend to make a full offer for the company, normally required in excess of 70% shareholding. Watch out if they decide to lighten the load on the way up!

sd

Stockdog,

If you bought in the IPO, you now have over a 400% gain!

No I have 400% value, less the 100% cost = a 300% gain! Simple arithmetical semantics.

sd

SD,

Ok!

Either way, a very nice scenario.

I still want to find out what is driving the price up, and I do think FOGL will have to issue an RNS soon.

Andy, me too - I hope the RNS explains why the rise, rather than says there is no reason! I'm feeling quite brave not selling out on this spike. But want to try to hold until oil flows commercially, when I expect SP to be 5 - 10 time today's price.

Tim Bushell's buy of 60,000 (presumably from fellow director Peter Dighton who exercised options and sold the smae amount the same day?) might have drawn attention to this stock, but in itself hardly warrants the big increase of 40% since then.

From the interims on 22nd December:-

Outlook

Complete 2D Seismic Survey - recording, processing and interpretation
in first half 2006

Introduce new participants by farm out in first half 2006

First exploration well targeted for 2007

There's not much more to be gleaned from the seismic other than the Chairman's encouraging remarks and drilling in 2007 is still some way off, so my guess is that news of (first) farminee is imminent and rumours are flying.

sd

Stockdog,

Yes, that's a fair assessment IMO.

When I spoke to the CEO at a presentation last year he said that their announcements were diliberately conservative, and they had found some amazing targets, and if they could obtain a rig there were some targets they would possibly drill from the 2D seismic!

No RNS this morning, and a tad down, so maybe people are selling due to the lack of an RNS today?

I'm holding for drilling is my current theory.

sd

Among the small caps, rumours of a link-up with an Indian oil company saw Falklands Oil & Gas advance 20.5p to 171p.


http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1709740,00.html

Interesting, Andy - Indian state oil or independent? Would they be a farminee or just substantial source of the capital needed for full drilling program next year? Anyway this is close to what I was driving at earlier.

sd

stockdog,

I am hoping for a farminee with access to a deep water rig, as well as being a company of substance financially.

I see we are stirring again today, now up 7p!

Andy
very deep water!
scary old spike. do you think it will fall back sharply or consolidate where it is?
sd

stockdog,

Wiithout news I think it will slide back somewhat, but there does appear to be a rumour, as two national newspapers have reported different rumours, so we shall have to wait and see.

One rumour I have read is that two or more of the Falklands explorers may merge, but I hope that isn't the case, as that would certainly result in the price falling IMO.

We need a deal of substance to maintain this price IMO.

Well well well, what a disappointing update. I was expecting them to announce a farm-in partner but it seems they are still clutching at straws. No news on analysis till after summer. I am now short from 174p.

aerotus,

It wasn't an update, it was a response required by the market, because of the recent price movement and press rumours.

Well, many people bought on the hype. I bought in from 1.13 but sold out too early at 1.30. Will make money on the way back down though. No news expected for months. Drilling is over 2 years away. May as well sell and buy back in the summer time for the results. I can see this falling back to earth quite quickly. The chart just has no support and all the hot money is going to be flushed out by stoplosses being hit.

Ouch - Nasty fall.

Aerotus,

Well good luck with your short.

Many people like myself are holding free shares abtained by top slicing the original float, and are 3/4 of the way towards maximum BATR, so won't be trading or selling, IMO.

I have made considerable profit in many stocks by buying what I perceive as value, and holding. I see FOGL as a similar stock.

Whilst I agree drilling is some way off, it MAY occur in 2007 if a farminee can be found!

Results are meaningless as they are only exploring.

The only "hype" I read were two newspaper columns with differing opinions on likely farminee partners, nothing about a takeover at all!

And this RNS does not mention farminees, just takeovers!

Don't get me wrong, I was bullish on FOGL and have held long positions before. But the latest announcement was a shorter's paradise opportunity. I'm just here to make some money, nothing personal.

FOGL has enormous potential, but timing is key.

Just closed my short for an easy 10% profit. Will open another one if it rises from here.

Aerotus,

Well done, I didn't take it personally, and if I had seen the RNS sooner, I would have shorted it myself.

I visited the FOGL Chartroom a couple of months ago, and their seismic is impressive, and they have quite a sizeable team working through that seismic, and comparing with the old geographical survey charts from years ago.

I left impressed, as did a geologist that went on the same visit. No proof of anything I know, but reassuring to see the company have a solid operation working away in a professional manner.

I still feel a farminee will be announced in the not too distant future, but that is only a gut feeling, and not based on any actual fact or knowledge.

I have heard the same info Andy, very bullish info and rumours dating back from summer 2005 that the majors were interested. Great long term investment but there are far more pressing investments to be attended to, such as VOG and EME, both have been a minimum 3-4 bagger for me. And I intend to hold for a year or two at least. By that time, I may even buy FOGL. :)

I'm short again. This could possibly go all the way back to 1.20.

Aerotus/Andy,
Have you read the article about the Falklands on Oilbarrel ?

Giggin

I think so Giggin but I cannot quite remember the details. Care to jog my memory please?

Aerotus
The article was an interview with David Bamford who has 23 years experience with BP and a phd in Geological Science. He said he was pessimistic about the possibility of there being any trapped hydrocarbons after seeing the latest seismic results.
Im not in FOGL but I am in DES. I also own DGO, COP, TXO and TAG

Giggin

giggin - I'm in TAG heavily. Nice rise on TXO today!

Aerotus
I only have 10000 Tag but heavy in DGO and SEY
Its good to see a rise on TXO as its been all down hill for the last couple of months

Giggin

Giggin, Andy and others
Interested to hear you views on how seriously to take David Bamford's report.
Seems a little too coincidental to be published at the 180p peak - someone wanting the SP cooled off, or a genuine report?

sd

As I suspected, there is definitely a very large seller offloading. Perhaps even a short attack in the absence of news. Take care longs.

Aerotus,

I agree.




Stockdog,

he has his opinion, which obviously contradicts the publically stated opinion of the various explorers in the Falkland Island area.

How he can state with any degree of certainty what he does say is beyond me, has he done 3d seismic and drilled the S. Atlantic?

He makes it sound as though he has when he hasn't.

I have an open mind, and anywayn this is a speculation for me, not a large investment, and all the shares are free, as I top sliced after the IPO.

Another minor sell off today taking the price with it. I see that Falkland Island Holdings sold a substantial chunk below market price last week - not unsensibly just rebalancing their portfolio and freeing up some cash for some diversification after the large recent rise. Is there any more news that we have not been told to beware of?

sd

stockdog,

Well the trades are VERY interesting so far today!

I make it virtually ALL buys, that's a decent volume, and 5$% up today.

Maybe there will be announcement this time?

stockdog,

Well, another 45,000 in buys just gone through, now 8p up, 6.97%.

Something definately seems to be brewing here IMO!

Andy
Now up 11p at 152p - mostly PI's but a number of larger trades in among them.
Since the peak of 180p we've had the Oilbarrell negative article and then FKL selling some of their holding - so I was watching a little nervously to see where we might retreat to. As you say, looks like something is brewing, although volume is not so high. See what the end of the day brings.

sd

Stockdog,

Well that was an interesting day!

Up, then retraced most of the up, then retraced most of the retrace!

760,000 shares traded, value > 1,000,000, looks healthy enough to me.

Now we just need to know why?

Well, what brought that on - 11% drop over the last 3 days and broken down through the Jan'06 uptrend. Can't see anyting visible. What's it looking like on Level 2 - are there sharks lurking beneath the Level 1 surface? Is there bad news in the wind or has Falkland Island Holdings disposed of another large tranche?

Although still well in the centre of the long-term upchannel from launch the lower limb of which cuts todays chart at 110p.

All views and news welcome.

Thanks

sd