Stockbunny, must bring this thread TTT. RSI turning from a very low point, MACD also at a low... needs to turn up from here. Will be interesting to see if last Thursdays climb back from 326p to 340p will be maintained.

Opened firm in a down market.

Ex-Div as far as I know this Friday.

Yes Bunny x/d Friday 1st. could be a bit of divi buying this week.

could be..

I think the ex-divi date is actually the 30th

Looking at the drop, reckon you are right there g64946. Hope you are!!

Here is some further news causing the sp move:

'Cattles unveiled a strong set of numbers for 2004, with underlying profit up 15% to 141.2m as growth at its consumer division continued strongly.

The lender sent a shiver through its shareholders though as it warned 2004 profits would have been 30% lower under new IFRS accounting standards due to changes in the timing of the booking of fees and when debts are in arrears. '

Thanks g64946 but I do think the IFRS has been 'in the price' for some while, probably the cause of the drop from the recent highs. Looking forward now to a climb away from todays levels.

looks like the ex-div affect has kicked in folks.

Up a touch when taking the divi out of the equation.

Not worth taking any notice really of the price today, easier
to wait for it to stabilise again and there isn't much doing
well today anyway, ex-div or not.

If you won't cattles to break out, leave the gate open.

Morning Aldwickk!
;>)

Down again today yet there doesnt seem to have been any company specific bad news for CTT whatsoever the accounting changes will affect how earnings are recorded, but the 18 March webcast of the full year figures (available at www.cattles.co.uk) was very upbeat, and the figures seemed impressive- real earnings are still heading in very much the right direction.

It seems to me that almost any news is taken with the worst possible outlook the good thing is that this creates a buying opportunity I suppose and I added to my holding yesterday, and would be happy to do again if this downwards trend continues, because in the long term, CTT looks like a sound investment (good yield, well covered, low PE etc.)

Other than the accounting change which knocked the price last month, in February UBS downgraded CTT from buy to neutral and the price fell 12 to 397 at the very same time though UBS said that even though they could not recommend CTT as a buy, they were UPGRADING the price target from 435 to 460 another example of the bad news winning out.

And the previous month, Investors Chronicle had CTT as a buy and a week later we were at 416 that seemed quickly forgotten.

The point I am making is that this recent weakness doesnt seem to be justified (other than the fact that the price is always right, since if it were obviously cheap, buyers would force the price higher)

Apparently Barclays hold nearly 15% of CTT last summer HSBC were rumoured to be looking at a bid (CTT denied it) and of course HSBC bought Household for 9 billion in the US in 2002 (and paid a 30% premium over the pre-bid share price) which already owns HFC and Beneficial in the UK. London Scottish Bank is similar to CTT in terms of business, but a fifth of the size, and probably not a target.

More than once this year various brokers have recommended switching from Provident Financial into Cattles, and CTTs PE ratio is a good 20% cheaper than PFGs. Going forward I think that sitting tight makes sense, because right now, I cant see any reason why I would want to trade CTT any other way than to buy more. Either the market will alter its view as CTT continues to perform, or perhaps a Bank will make a move..

DYOR (Ive done mine.)

Well said jone3621 - my sentiments entirely. Seems to have dropped further than justified recently & expect to see this tick up in the next few weeks.

Ditto..
:>)

London Scottish and Prov. Financial are also down, guess it's
a temporary 'down on the sub-primes' period!

Well I can't say I'm surprised that ctt are up today - I posted in detail on 8 April about the recent news, and how it has been reported - we know that the accounting changes will affect how earnings are reported, but actual earnings growth seems likely to continue.

Given January's Investors Chronicle 'buy' recommendation, UBS raising the price target from 435 to 460 in February, the still low PE, and well covered dividend - and no company specific bad news - there does come a point when buyers will step in.

I do understand the logic of waiting for the price to turn before taking a long position, but taking a longer term stance, I prefer to take a stance and stick with it until the story changes.

In fact given that before the 'accounting news story' these were happy in the mid 370's only four weeks ago - whilst supply and demand will always move the price one way or another, what's actaully caused this company to be less attractive as an investment??

Maybe nothing - we shall see....

Is this a chance for a top up, or time to get out? Excellent yield and PER, anyone know why these has been hit so hard today?

You're not alone in trying to find a reason, so far drawn a blank.
You must decide if it's a good time to top up - it all depends on your
current holding, what your break-even is, what you want to achieve and
how long you are looking to hold etc etc.

Thanks Stockbunny, I was thinking initially of buying some FP. to pair up with my CTT holding. I think FP will eventually be taken over in a life industry consolidation. It too has a good yield and low PER in the meantime. I think I will go with the latter.

CTT is regaining ground today :>)

Why no "fundamental Data" . . . . ?
The SP is about the same as Sept2005, when the Posts stopped.

I believe that Prov. Finance PFG is similar . . . . but which is the "better-value".. . ?
( Not FP. )

PFG and CTT are both in the "sub-prime market" - although it seems their risk-taking is minimal and NOT to be confused with the US-sub-prime.

Cattles raises it's cash from corporate bonds, which does not seem to cause concern in the markets, so it doesn't really fall in the same category as the high street banks.
Consumer credit accounts for approx 90% of their loan book of which only approx 7% is bad debt. They are running a tight ship, imo & should benefit from the withdrawal of the banks from this sector. However, the sp is cyclical & looking at the 5 year chart you need to pick your entry & exit points carefully.

As always the market seems over pessimistic, and find the present mark down with CTT surprising, it seems to be falling faster than the banks at the moment.
I checked back at the charts and noticed that the 2003 low was 238, which if reached again would put them on a yield of 8.5%.

Too tempting for me at that price.

Spitfire dont forget interest rates are likely to decline and bad debts likely to rise.

This is true, but I wonder at what point in the falling price the risk reward is worth looking at.

re checked the charts on cattles, and found the 1998 low was 200p, 2000 low was 200p, 2001 low was 210p and 2003 low was 230p. Which hopefully will put a floor on the possible fall this time.

Brought this morning at 238, and will hold for a recovery.

Looking at the chart, the sp generally recovers up to the divi date in mid march, but you would want to be out of CTT soon after that date.
With sub-prime worries this year though, history may not repeat itself.

I see what you mean, just looked back 3 years and it fell each time after div date, but as you say this year may be different.

9 for 20 Rights issue at 1.28 - oh dear, another lender finding business is not "as usual" - ( this is effectively 1 for 2 = dilution. ) - so expect a sp fall to about 1.50 once the new shares are traded.

The company claims it won't need new money ( presumably from any shareholders) . . . . for the next 5-years. Well, let's hope so.

Anyone else with an opinion . . . + anyone going to their AGM?

EDIT:
Hi Halifax - I read that, but take it to be some "Regulatory" effect of EU Rules, since they are already fairly close to being a "Bank" ( ie they deal in money in the crudest terms) . . . . thus I think the difference is slight and "might" even make their regulation less rigorous - they haven't explained the "for" and "against" - perhaps the Prospectus will be forthcomming?
I don't hold, having a fear of such operations targeting primarily "poorer folk" - but maybe I could be wrong!

They are raising cash to expand their business and are applying for a banking licence.

Why has Cattles drop to 202p this am?

Rights issue - now with rights I believe.

this share is plummeting too like many right now

Rights issue was priced at 128p, so I imagine this was considered to be a realistic level??? Certainly looks like it's headed that way.

For those that took up the rights issue, the new shares are listed as CTTR, which are tradeable in their own right and have a different price from CTT. I have been informed that this is because the CTTR stock will not be entitled to the next dividend (due approx sept), but it is likely that the two listings will be amalgamated once the divi date has passed. This also means at the moment, each stock is subject to a dealing charge when traded.

Thanks Harrycat, useful to have a single source of Info.
-Both Cattles are in downward movement today - probably tracking themselves so MM's don't get a nasty surprise, come Sept08 (etc).
Typically 1.18 - so that's below the Rights, isn't it?
Not sure that becoming a "Bank" was ever a good idea.....

- - - Is this the final market shake-out, as even "believers" rush for the door? - - - -

I see Tanfield is massivly down . . . compare TAN (9p today) with a year ago. Grief.

Hey presto...Cattles is only 82p today.

Just topped, CTT getting very tarred with the banking sector brush and also seeing increases in arrears. Also lower amounts of good debt available for to take on. Fingers crossed the banking license comes through.

FWIW I dislike the "name" - it doesn't have a good ring of "Solidarity" - nor does it have a "friedly" name that would be acceptable to the customer ( the borrowers)
Look at the old names used for Banks - they are old family names - or - they are geographic names Halifax, Northern Rock - whatever their fortunes the name itself tells a story of Northern Thrift, solidarity and so on.

Is a name important?

That's obviously not for cattles - to maintain their EPIC they could do worse that Community Chest - a reflection of the business and solid-sounding. The only "risk" is the association with Monopoly (the game), which is a pile of playing cards. However, I suspect that is a minor flaw and the ability to keep the EPIC (hopefully) is more than compensation.
An advantage is the use of graphics - a Sailor's Chest overflowing with cash, palmtrees and goodies (like small cars) falling out - so as to reinforce the name and the possibilities.....like buying a car, a holiday on a dereted island etc.

By comparison "Cattles" just is plain Dull . . . . . . . IMHO.
I'm just not convinced this Market won't get worse. . . . . sub-50p anyone?


EDIT.15Oct08. Oh dear 42p! Grief this is "bad, on top of terrible".
However, I read the Co.website and it seems Joseph Cattle was an astute financier who made his money providing small cash-loans to the relativly poor, but proud Northerners. ( read it for yourself!)
However, my concern is "now" and from an outside-view the "name" is poor in the modern investment markets. That's just my view.
However, I fear that the Market doesn't like Banks - and if Cattles wants to join the rabble , one wonders if it wouldn't be better to walk away.
Does anyone know if Cattles can keep the money they raised? I understand the shares are now merged, so have equal ranking. What is their cash position, or are there "strings" on some of this bounty? - Grief this is bad -

I agree Cattles is a rather dull and boring name and if the company gets its banking license it could do with an image change. Dull and boring however might be the way to go as a suggestion to being run the old fashioned way with a little more security. Anyway with a banking application underway we could well see a new breed of banks of which Cattles I think could fair well.

Sorry folks....39p
Makes those that paid 1.28 for "new shares" look dumb.

I wrote: 1May,2008."...9 for 20 Rights issue at 1.28 - oh dear, another lender finding business is not "as usual" - ( this is effectively 1 for 2 = dilution. ) - so expect a sp fall to about 1.50 once the new shares are traded.

[CTT] was 4.50 in Jan07, C.2.50 Jan08 - how things change, eh?

EDIT-(21Oct08) - 21k-buy today, av. 37p represents only 0.01% - recent Dir Purchases have not been "significant" IMHO - that's 50k++ each.
ateeq180 - Why did it rise yesterday? - - - Was this Dir-purchase "known" perhaps?.....
EDIT-(5Nov)-Dir Buy yesterday 31k looks interesting, but not when the sp was 1.28 for the "Funding" - this Dir got a Bargain, so why not 100k a piece?

very volatile today this share,any reasons.

Cattles has rising debts and lack of funding...16p now.

5p is a fairer price.

hlyeo98, I'm not aware of "risiing ddeebt" - can you explain, I know they have to re-negotiate a 600m debt in June09 - but in-between they will have some money returned by way of repayments - recent Statement merely mentions delays in getting their Banking Licence - if they don't get this, will it ruin the compnany? I doubt it, it's just that it will be a smaller business, until the credit-crunch is over.

However, I do fear the sp will suffer, as there seems little "good-news" and today I read RNS cutting the Dividend for next year. (I'm surprised this wasn't done earlier...)
Currently 16p to buy.