Just bought this at 64.75 pence,feel free to comment..

owned these since IPO...forgot to sell them.

no real view at the moment, probably ok from here. probably.

Me too, sold most, but have a few left, and receive one share viacrip divi every so often!

I think probably limited downside from here, and am considering a small top up when I have some funds available.

First tick on the page,,its up.

Should be good news this week,for the share price at least.

After locking one car up for good,i`ve hired another from here ,51.75,,and no i did not book on line..

dave,

You have to admit the chart looks appalling!

Yes your right about that andy,,but i like a challenge . At least i dont have to walk up the chart,,,,,,,,i can always drive,,beep/beep.

does anyone take the view that the parent may buy the balance it doesn't own??? what is it really worth?

I dont know about that prop,if we all chip in together we can take it private.

i think a bit of research is in order....

Prop,its the online booking that a problem for avis.

dave,

care to elaborate?

As I say, I hold a few, and I do expect Avis to turn around at some point, but the chart doesn't inspire at the moment IMHO.

Andy,its know secret that avis have had problems with there online booking,lots of unhappy customers. Never used avis myself i always use eurocar,mybe thats the problem,you get good service with no hassle why would you change !!

Andy how long have you been a holder.

I am looking for about 20% return on this.

i use autocar...

anyway, i agree, i think if they get this right there is a good 20% play.

Thats the spirit prop,i like to work 12/20 % if its a short up to 3 months,just come out of vdy +64.5,for a short termish hold.

dave,

I took part in the float, and am in the Founder's Club.

I sold most ages ago. but have a few left, and intend topping up some time when funds allow, and the chart looks healthier.

Good luck with it andy,

Avis is considered the biggest isn't it of the car rental businesses,
like Dave I tend to prefer a chart that looks like that, to one that
has already run a long way already - horses for courses I guess.
It's tempting...IMO it would be bought out rather then fade and die
if things got worse, lack of tangible assets as such, a lot of money
tied up in cars that we all know need constant updating and maintenance.
BUT yes I'm still tempted, only thing is currently I'm short on liquid
assets! As always DYOR and follow your own instincts.
good luck with it everyone! :>)

nice post. i feel the same. as a founding shareholder these are somewhere in the background of my screen but i have to ask whether this stock could go under. doubtful. does anyone have any idea of the debt level?

Bunny i think we are mavericks,,some mite say we need locking up for are own good !!

Dave :>)LOL!

room for three?

Prop your sounding like an accountant .

LOL proptrade :>)

DD, i thought we were friends, don't insult me! LOL guys...

Ha!

So this is where you are all hiding.............................

Whats all this then?

SWW, it is just a bit of bottom picking if you know what i mean. are you following ESY. my nemisis of 2004 is no more!

Oh yes, trying to find some cash, will be wedbnesday.

looks fun all round lately!

Welcome to a fine car distribution centre sw,how can i help you,,we have cars for all budgets,from a micra 1.0,up to gas guzzling bentleys,,prices to suit all pockets,,,,,,,,,,,just dont book on line.

lol

dave you are a one!

got any sinclar c5's?

Only in the summer,,,,,,,sorry.

Bottom picking indeed! Speak for yourself (lol) I prefer
to consider it as prudent (ok stingy) purchasing based on
shrewd (wing and a prayer?)judgement...but I'm of course only
talking for myself here! ;>)

SB, you are too funny. we are in it for the same reason - bottom picking to hopefully wipe some gains...(or do i mean swipe!)

Only one way this is going bunny,,up.

the only way is up, baby, for you and me......hey i'm going to pen a song...

And I think at this stage of the conversation, when we have
covered already bottom picking and wiping we had better leave it
at that - the imaginations will probably be running riot anyway
amongst the lurking community! ;>)

Nice idea Proptrade but Yaz got there first.......

now i'm impressed, i had no idea who wrote that!

sorry, i am a tad excited as a holder of ESY...

LOL don't think she wrote it but she sang it.
Yes good day here too RDW doing nicely :>)

oooohhhh aren't we a little pedantic! really laughing over here!

;>)

sorry for my ignorance but what does that mean????? i am useless at that kind of stuff!

Its a face sideways on with one eye that's winking which means
either I know you are joking or I am joking or similar.
:>) is just a smilie face
:>( is a sad face

i love it! that is so funny, i have always wondered about those squigles and remeber being sent a huge list back in 1998/9 and had NO interest but that one you posted is great.

had a chat with a corp finance friend last night about ave and he thought it looked pretty interesting down here and agreed that it could be taken out by the parent. do we have any ideas about the debt levels??

cheers
rgds
proptrade

3 shillings and sixpence

;-))

do you have a double chin?

Yes, with a squint and long nose.

too funny!

" *
. )
" *

sorry, now i know i am being childish! (a little red faced with xmas cheer)

prop - you have a bald head with hair at the sides, one eye and dimples in your cheeks when you smile.................

that's me!

lol

Looks like this mite come good,bloody missed a quick pay day this morning..

Go on fill your sacks,,its christmas.

Looks right now if I've missed this one - no funds available
:>(

Dave - what ypou looking for out of this one?

Afternoon ,must be 25% sw.

Some interest on this again.

Can i upgrade my bentley for a rocket, whoshhhhhhh.

whats the story?

You have mail craig.

Prop,cant be long now.

dave, me and you into these and matalan... like minds... bit of news for you boys...

Brussels shares close higher; D'Ieteren gains on Avis buy rumours UPDATE
(Update with full report)
BRUSSELS (AFX) - Shares closed slightly higher, with car rental and distribution company D'Ieteren leading the index gainers on market rumour of a future takeover bid for Avis Europe (LSE: AVE.L - news) , traders said.
At the close, the Bel 20 ended up 6.39 points or 0.21 pct at 3,073.52.
Shares in D'Ieteren climbed 8 eur or 5.03 pct to 167 eur with a late stock surge after market talk circulated over a potential bid for Avis Europe, traders said.
'It has certainly something to do with that,' said a Delta Lloyd trader.
South Africa's Barloworld has been rumoured to be a potential bidder for the ailing Avis group.
In January this year, majority shareholder D'Ieteren -- with a 60 pct stake in Avis -- reported a 16 pct year-on-year rise in sales and reaffirmed its full year net profit target.


look at the spike in the chart late in the day, something cooking for sure.

http://uk.ichart.yahoo.com/w?s=IETB.BR

i am in....

I'm not but it looks good.

Run out of free cash again.

what a great day... picked some of these up at 50.25 last week, then at 60 on monday.. large position.. very few free shares in issue so could really motor if we get a bid confirmation.. feel if an offer does come then 90p is a minimum... very close to breaking out of downtrend we should force remaining shorts to cover imho...

stunning isn't it. i paid 59!

bought some more. think there is substance behing the rumour (imho!)

look at them go!

Evening all,avis going well i see,looks like its been a hot few days for my holdings,nice one daveedwards..

Any thoughts on a tie up with hertz.

very doubtful....imho

just a bubbling story and buyers still around. i really think there is substance to this

For sure prop for sure.

can't remember if i mentioned this but the new MD, Stuart Gent, was apartner at Bain. I know guys there and the fact is that a partner NEVER leaves unless the package and turnaround story is substantial. these partners are set for life and checking this guy out he was at the top of his game at Bain. must be a turnaround in size or how about this one....an MBO??? there is a new and perhaps accuate thought!

Prop its a win win situation,my initial upside was 20% on this short term but now it is near 50%,very happy with this one.

From UK-analyst last night for all you car hire types, make of it as you will.

Bid speculation in the mid-caps was more subdued today, but rumours continued to support the share price of Avis Europe. The shares rose 1.25p to 62p. There have been 2 possible scenarios mentioned. One story is that Belgium's D'leteren, which hold 60% of the company's share capital, would buy out minority shareholders. The other is that South Africa's Barloworld is seeking to move into the European market by purchasing Avis. Gains have been strong over the last week, so any bid premium is likely to be already priced in.

cheers gavdfc....i think there is athrird scenareo which i have mentioned above MBO!

I guess they don't think like you do, after all, they are only journalists! ;-)

Seems like a may have missed the boat on this one. Will see what Monday brings.

i think it is worth a tickle at these levels. have a small bookmark position to build on if they go sub 60. i just think the downside from here is limited.

That chart is starting to show the makings of a new uptrend .... higher highs and higher lows. It looks a bit overbought for entering a fresh position atm though. That doesn't mean that it won't carry on up ..... just that I'd like to see it retrace a bit first to give an entry in the mid-50's.

I don't understand the am fundies though. They seem to be showing a 40 odd million profit for 2003 with a negative P/E ratio???!!!??? How does that work? The P/E ratio seems correct, but they lost 32m.

Hilary,

Maybe down to the Moneyam fundies being quoted in , but the 2004 interims seem to be in Euros?

Financial Summary

Revenue up 3.9% to 548 million
Volume* up 3.8%, revenue per day* up 0.4%
Operating profit** lower at 39.6 million, including losses at Budget
of 5.4 million
Exceptional charge before tax 3.9 million
Profit before tax** lower at 10.6 million; unadjusted profit before
tax 5.4 million
(2003: 15.3 million)
Interim dividend maintained at 1.3 pence

* excludes Budget and Centrus and at constant currency
** before goodwill amortisation and exceptionals

Looking good nice and solid,mbo stories mid november 2004,,from close to the know.

daves, the mbo was my own assumption base on this new UK manager...these Bain guys are masters at that and can home finance (Through Bain) deals way north of a company the size of Avis. i am pleased that the market was talking about it as well.
if that rumour reemerges we could see thes have another wind up to 70 or 80...
dave, send me an email with mid-nov details...
rgds
PT

still watching. keeping their head above water....rumours still around

anyone hearing anything more???

By my reckoning

Just over 70m ave shares have changed hands in parcels of 200,000 or greater since 4 Jan
This excludes deals which although split up across the day
....still added up exactly to nice round nos of 100,000, 150,000, 200,000 etc
and were transacted by the same Broker
...which possibly accounted for up to a further 5m since 4 Jan
There is little evidence of major shorting going on since 4 Jan so one could reasonably assume that the majority of these shares remain with their new owner
at the minute
Allowing 4.7m for Fidelity taking their holding up to 43m (ie 7.11%) and the Templeton & D`Ieteren holdings of 4.95% and 59.6% respectively........
This suggests around 65m shares or 11% of the entire Co is now in the hands of new owners or is held in trust by a few Brokers ready to sell on at an agreed point in time

This only leaves around 100m shares (17% of the Co) in the "free" market
...Suggesting that
even if the new owners of these big parcels decide only to "hold" for the immediate few weeksAnd
.......Since the "free" market in ave shares was around 165m (28% of the Co) at 4 Jan 05
And ...since the average "buy" deal size persistently exceeds the "sell" size
hinting at concentration of shareholders

........ the current hoovering up process will push the price up further

buyers about today....can see these creeping up over the next week or two.

buyers back...momentum? lets keep an eye on this one...

anyone else watching?

Still a hold for me prop ,looking good.

indeed. may buy more...what do you think..RAC warming the sector up in combo with the other positives? i feel like speculating this afternoon!

just a small announcement...

Avis Europe PLC
11 March 2005


11 March 2005

Avis Europe plc ('the Company')

The Board of Directors of Avis Europe plc received notification on 10 March
2005, pursuant to sections 198 - 202 of the Companies Act 1985, that Franklin
Resources, Inc. and its affiliates, which includes Franklin Mutual Advisers LLC
and Templeton Worldwide, Inc. and its affiliates, now hold 30,884,121 ordinary
shares in the Company representing 5.2722% of its issued ordinary share capital.

Enquiries:

Judith Nicholson
Company Secretary
Tel: 01344 426644

Thats more like it prop,i feel there more to this holding than meets the eye,or am i just dreaming,,,,,,surely not.

just good all round performance last week...another week like that and there is something cooking...100p is so attainably and may be the exit level for the parent...who knows but may add this week

up small on low volume but still higher...

nice sized trades today...

Its getting there prop,afternoon.

Go on grab the keys,i did.

afternoon sir, about bloody time these broke out!

someone has said something somewhere...good volume and quantity of trades.

Well i have been waiting a long time for some action,looks strong now me thinks.

me too. i missed the early spike (out for a couple of hours) but all looks promising!!!!

looks like some flippers being shaken out and then onwards to 70+. that would be the ideal price action!

inching higher after a few small dellers this morning....

and higher...

69.5 being paid!

Nice move prop of late,and now well up for me.

me too. where next? looks like there is still buyers about who probably don't want to chase. v. good news.

Well i for one would not be paying 70 pence a share,but happy to hold for now.

agreed. seller at 80?

Still going north.

you beat me to the post!

no volume but i like the direction!

good w/e dave?

Very quiet craig not done a lot just research,I see arsenal had a win just.

any win is a win, however achieved!

some buyers paying 70.75....big order in the wings? looking for some vwap orders to go through later in the day

73 today by end of play ?

certainly a step in the right direction!

I`ve had a bit of a run in the car-hire business this last few months prop first vdy and now ave,,,,i wonder if hertz is listed.

worth exploring....

ave feel like they may push to 80 and then settle down in a 75-80 something range. then wait for some decent results, takeover or an uptick in the trading

Anybody else in this avis car.

you and me...we only need a SMART car two seater!

Well 73 is here prop i think we should trade this smart car in and buy a rover 75.

LOL. i think this still has legs...good price action today.

Still a hold for me,a nice little banker.

level on the day (so far!) RESULT!

buyers coming thick and fast and paying 70!

not huge amounts but keep it coming.

FLIGHT TO QUALITY

rgds
PT

erm....WOW!!!! what the bugger is going on!

Thought I would pop in and say hello, not stopping, as there is nothing going on anywhere today.

Well not really, red all over!

Little blip for you here just after 1pm, keep pumping people.

I am seriously thinking of not looking at my stocks for 3 years and then seeing what is going on.

America sneezes and we catch the cold.

prop you were dead right about who lost the money with WLW, seems lots a hedge funds are unhappy.

WMH have cancelled the super divi as they are after Stanley Leisure, damn I wanted the divi.

Nothing works Touchwood!!


Are these lot here about to be bought??

Rumour control says...................

i think something is in the works. the parent owns 60% and won't be diluted. they were floated at 124p and i think they need to unshackle from the parent to move on. they have a newly appointd MD for the UK who gave up his partnership at Bain to pursue opportunities at AVE. My understanding is he was a high flyer so it must have been a gloden goose to lure him away.

all in, this is a solid stock with a great brand that has lost its way the last two years. we are at a level where they have taken a hit and are recovering and there is clearly an order or two in the mkt.

i am in this since 61p and am holding for some news. don't know why but just really fancy them for a move. all helped as well by RAC being bid for. this is a truelly pan european+asia company and i think a decent bet.

SWW, i have just started a "flight to quality thread" and would love to get it going...please feel free to spread your gospel!

by the way, i think the WLW has a way to run yet...i think the board may have a few casualties after the bid debacle. watch this (or the WLW) space!

Cendant the owner of the Avis brand 14 March press release




Press Releases
Corporate

CENDANT ANNOUNCES DIVISION MANAGEMENT CHANGES AS COMPANY NEARS COMPLETION OF STRATEGIC REALIGNMENT
New York 03-14-2005 -- Cendant Corporation (NYSE:CD) today announced that the Company's previously disclosed strategic realignment and disposition of several non-core business units will result in the streamlining of its division management structure and changes in reporting relationships.


In keeping with the Company's strategic realignment, Cendant will operate within two vertical marketsTravel and Real Estate. The Real Estate Services Division will continue under the leadership of Richard A. Smith, chairman and CEO of that division. The Company's Travel segment will comprise two integrated groupsTravel Content and Travel Distribution. Stephen P. Holmes, chairman and CEO of Cendant's Hospitality Services Division will be responsible for Travel Content, which includes the Hotel Group, Timeshare Resort Group, Vacation Exchange Group, Vacation Rental Group and Cendant Car Rental Group. Samuel L. Katz, chairman and CEO of the Travel Distribution Services Division will oversee Travel Distribution, which includes Agency Services, Consumer Travel, Corporate Travel Solutions and Supplier Services. As a result of the expected disposition of the Company's Marketing Services Division in the third quarter of 2005, the Company will disaggregate its Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) headquarters in London, and the functions provided by this office will be subsumed by Cendant's U.S-based Corporate Group and/or operating units based in the UK.

Accordingly, Kevin M. Sheehan, chairman and chief executive officer, Vehicle Services Division and Scott Forbes, senior executive vice president of Cendant EMEA will be leaving the Company.

Cendant's Chairman and CEO, Henry R. Silverman, stated: "The recent dispositions of our non-core business units, including our tax preparation, mortgage, fleet management and fuel card management units, and the pending sale of Marketing Services, will position Cendant as a pure play travel and real estate company. As part of the realignment, we are compelled to streamline our management reporting structure to be more in line with the long-term operating structure of the Company.

"Kevin Sheehan has been a trusted advisor and strategic partner for more than 20 years and has played an important role in the evolution of Cendant. Kevin took the helm at Avis Group as president in 1999 following its initial public offering, and later served as Cendant's CFO after Avis was brought back into the Cendant fold in 2001. Given the depth of his experience at Avis, Kevin assumed responsibility for the Company's Vehicle Services Division upon the acquisition of Budget in 2003. Under Kevin's stewardship, we have surpassed all expectations for synergy creation through the successful integration of Budget, substantially increased the services portion of our Fleet business, and drove the growth of Wright Express, which culminated in Cendant receiving approximately $1 billion of proceeds in connection with its disposition through a public offering this past month. With the recent spin-off of PHH and sale of the Company's fuel card management business, Kevin and I together concluded that his work at Cendant is substantially complete. I am confident that Kevin's diverse leadership experiences and noteworthy accomplishments at Cendant will enable him to realize his ultimate goal of leading a large public company on his own.

"Scott Forbes has made invaluable contributions to Cendant's achievements during his fifteen years from the inception of HFS through our Company's recent transformation. As one of my earliest senior executives, Scott played an important leadership role in HFS' formative years and the creation of Cendant, culminating in his appointment as Chief Accounting Officer. He later identified the opportunity and agreed to lead Cendant's operations in EMEA at its nascent stage. In this capacity, Scott served as the senior corporate executive outside the United States and was responsible for the transformation of NCP and Green Flag into thriving businesses that ultimately generated more than $1.6 billion of combined proceeds upon disposition. He was also responsible for forming our Vacation Rental Group in 2001, and successfully implemented its acquisition strategy to make it the industry's global leader with more than $1 billion of annual rental value. As a result of Scott's efforts, our operating divisions have reached considerable scale in EMEA and he believes that his work is substantially complete. I am grateful for his dedication to Cendant and for the value he has created for our shareholders.

"Both Kevin and Scott will be sorely missed by all of us at Cendant, and I wish them much success as they pursue opportunities outside of the Company."

As a direct result of its strategic realignment and disposition of non-core businesses, Cendant also announced that it expects to implement changes in the Company's segment reporting structure with respect to its Travel Content group for financial reporting purposes effective with its first quarter 2005 earnings release. Travel Content will contain three segments: Hospitality, Timeshare Resort and Vehicle Rental. The Company expects to re-format its 2005 guidance consistent with its new segment reporting during the next several weeks.

About Cendant
Cendant is primarily a provider of travel and residential real estate services. With approximately 80,000 employees, New York City-based Cendant provides these services to businesses and consumers in over 100 countries.


Media Contacts:
Elliot Bloom
(212) 413-1832

Kelli Segal
(212) 413-1871

Investor Relations:
Sam Levenson
(212) 413-1834

Henry A. Diamond
(212) 413-1920

This is bound to have an impact on bid speculation for Ave as the new Cendant organisation takes shape

Come on its been along time coming but may be ,,just may be there could be an offer.

could be intersting...something is clearly happening here. a six month chart for you that you (dave) may want to post at the start of the thread.


as a reminder from the 24 Feb 2005


D'Ieteren incoming CEO 'happy' with Avis stake, has long-term vision for Avis
AFX


BRUSSELS (AFX) - D'Ieteren Trading BV incoming chief executive Jean-Pierre Bizet quashed rumours that a sale of its subsidiary Avis Europe is on the cards, saying he is 'happy' with the current stake and has a long-term vision for the group.

Bizet said: 'We have a long-term vision for Avis. We are trying to be a good parent company.'

He denied reports that the company has been in discussions with Barloworld with a view to selling Avis. 'We don't know what fuelled these rumours,' he said.
">

looking at the chart with moving averages this is even more compelling...

">

stake building?

Avis Europe PLC
19 April 2005




19 April 2005

Avis Europe plc ('the Company')

The Board of Directors of Avis Europe plc received notification on 18 April
2005, pursuant to sections 198 - 202 of the Companies Act 1985, that Franklin
Resources, Inc. and its affiliates, which includes Franklin Mutual Advisers LLC
and Templeton Worldwide, Inc. and its affiliates, now hold 35,401,021 ordinary
shares in the Company representing 6.0433% of its issued ordinary share capital.

Enquiries:

Judith Nicholson

Company Secretary

Tel: 01344 426644

they have bought approx 5 million share since the 11th of march...apprears they are still adding.

Interestingly
The average price paid for the previous Franklin holding is around 72p which is just above what they must have paid to add 5m shares since 11 March 05
They must be banking on significant SP growth from now on

Franklin are based in New York

so somebody in the office is responsible for Cendant analysis........

very possibly and like the way you joined those dots!

of all the possible buyers Cedant are certainly the ones wih an inside track. all looks interesting.

Looks good prop and can only get better , cheers dave.

big rolls today...good to see the volume stay up there

stock going through at 75.25!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

not alot but it almost looked like a fast market!

Have you guys got a price target to sell at here or holding for some type of takeover? Seems Fidelity have increased their holding.

Avis Europe PLC
22 April 2005


22 April 2005


Avis Europe plc ('the Company')

The Board of Directors of Avis Europe plc received notification on 21 April
2005, pursuant to sections 198 - 202 of the Companies Act 1985, that Fidelity
International Limited (FIL) and its direct and indirect subsidiaries, being
non-beneficial holders, now hold 46,932,035 ordinary shares in the Company
representing 8.01% of its issued ordinary share capital.

Enquiries:

Judith Nicholson
Company Secretary
Tel: 01344 426644




This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

80 pence a share will do me gav,,no point being greedy.

Avis Europe Parent Co are D`Ieteren with 60% ownership Fidelity & Franklin having a further 14% This leaves free market shares of 152M
Large parcel purchases since 4 Jan 05 suggest a further 60M shares are in the hands of Funds with under 3% each
The market in the residual shares is short of stock and hence disproportionately sensitive to relatively small fluctuations in volume
D`Ieteren are negotiating the purchase of Elite Autoglass and Glaspro Inc of Colorado thru their subsidiary Belron.The deal should be completed end April
This gives Belron access to the US auto glass market for the first time
Meanwhile Avis Inc and Avis brand owner Cendant is a massive multi national in the leisure business ( hotels timeshares etc) Avis Inc successfully exploit the Avis brand in the USA but not in Europe or Asia
Cendant recently announced a reorganisation in which they are integrating Avis Inc into the rest of their leisure businesses to optimise global costs and marketing opportunities
Avis Europe have not performed well since being acquired by D`Ieteren in 2002 at around 100p/share and disposal would suit them particularly if it also brought the sweetener of side deals with Cendant which aided the Belron US launch
Avis will announce a trading update in mid May 05
Around this time or within a few months thereafter with the Belron acquisition is out of the way would be a good time for D`Ieteren to announce sale of Avis Europe to Cendant
Depending on the trading update..
Minimum sale price to enable D`Ieteren to retrieve their original investment ..100p
Minimum sale price to enable Fidelity and Franklin to retrieve their original investment ..90p

nice post cheers. makes a change to the usual i babble on about on this thread!

so you are of the belief these will be taken out it take it.

i have been watching the story unfold very closely and think the same, but i think it will be an internal buy-out team headed by the new UK MD. just a feeling because he is ex-Bain and meant to be hot and you never give up a Bain partnership unless there is a mighty big carrot being dangled.

loving all the volume...even if it is rolls it shows some interest in this beauty!

Cheers guys for sharing your thoughts.

even more volume...

Another day when biggish parcels are changing hands with negligible impact on price
This may be negotiated deals simply being processed thru the system............
Could also be be transfers from nominee to nominee to keep below the 3% ownership level to avoid a declaration..........
Over the last few weeks the true AVE market only seems to operate when the big boys are`n`t in play and deals are averaging well under 10000 shares and volume is below 400k.........

Autoglass acquisition in USA completed by Belron last week and out of the way
for D`Ieteren......
EGM called to tidy up Avis accounts........formality given ownership structure
Cendant progressing integration of Avis Inc and leisure businesses in North America and will soon be ready to address potential savings in Europe and Asia
assuming they can do a deal with D`Ieteren to acquire AVE or at very least secure cooperation in exchange for share of savings.....
Only issue outstanding is latest AVE trading update due end May......which must be going in the right direction as recent increase in Fidelity and Franklin holdings suggest the inside track is providing positive vibes

Plenty of big parcel buyers around when sp drops below 70p suggesting AT buy orders in pipeline from funds
Conclusion
Looking good for next leap forward in sp

80p by mid June ??

i agree. all things look like a turnaround, especially the cleaning up of the accounts.

i am just as positive.

rgds
PT

Still lots of buyers around waiting to pounce if the price drops below70p

yup, silly close yesterday as well. they didn't trade there all day untill the last tick.

More big parcels changing hands with little or no impact on sp......
This has got to be MMS passing on consolidated parcels to the big boys at a prearranged commission
ie
MMs mop up little deals for a few days which is then followed by a few big transfers which don`t impact the sp on the day they were passed on..looks like the MMs ensure that the spread at which they pass on the parcel is aligned with the prearranged price......

Nice spike there good to see this over 70 again.

yup..hopefully that move to 80 is now on the cards after a bit of consolidating time...

Yes it was starting to go very flat i think when it hits 80 pence i will sell out and move on,,as they say in the films,,,,,,,,,,,wagons roll only down hill!

my price target is slightly above 80. will see what news comes out. also this EGM is interesting...

Its come along way since that 44p in january prop,if thet can get rid of the parent company they could have a chance.

a great chance. i think a tasty morsel to a conglomorate with an insurance arm...ala RAC

NOW YOUR TALKING PROP,a quid i think,the good times are back..

like it. considering i was falling asleep at the PC this afternoon this little flurry in AVE has woken me up! squiddly diddly by the summer!

nice momentum and volume...

Hello!!!!

Nice numbers here today.

huge volume today. i think a seller that has been around has been taken out. could rise tomorrow (if the dow doesn't collapse!)

Good volume today both ways, RNS not too cheery.
Price bottomed ?

don't know but the news is so bearish they may be driving the price down to buy the stoack in house. consiracy theory?

Looks to me that they could drop some way yet, unless some spec talk arrives to hold them up. 50p could well be on the way again. Would get interested in buying then.

still buying. up from 8.01% last month!



Avis Europe PLC
27 May 2005




27 May 2005

Avis Europe plc ('the Company')

The Board of Directors of Avis Europe plc received notification on 27 May 2005,
pursuant to sections 198 - 202 of the Companies Act 1985, that Fidelity
International Limited (FIL) and its direct and indirect subsidiaries, being
non-beneficial holders, now hold 54,460,395 ordinary shares in the Company
representing 9.30% of its issued ordinary share capital.

Conspiracy theorists are probably right

If you analyse the volume of large parcels above 1m which have changed hands since 4 Jan05 and allowing 50 % double counting to cater for shorting.......
Then
At least 60% of the 25% AVE "free market" shares is now in the hands of Big Boys with 1m to 14m each
ie ....the genuine "free market" is probably down to around 60m shares
and

Also
Its quite a smart move to cancel a dividend when you own 60% of the Company (and have the support of another 15% of the shareholders in exchange for inside info)
...This leaves D`Ieteren with 40% of AVE retained dividend

There can only be one reason why Fidelity continue to accumulate stock when their informal contacts within AVE are telling them in advance that the next RNS will be bearish

.........There is a bid in the pipeline this year either Cendant or D`Ieteren buying out the last 40%

100p still looking good ........

great synopsis! 100ppppppp

Assume current ownership.... as in previous post
D`Ieteren 349.3M
Share Options etc 4.0M
Fidelity 54.5M
Franklin 45.2M
Total 453.0M

If we only count individual trades above 200000 shares since 4 Jan 05
Approx 135M shares have changed hands
We can safely assume that even allowing a generous 60M for shorting
....and since the sp has actually been rising not falling since Jan this is more likely to be an overestimate
Then
There must currently be individual holdings exceeding 1M totalling at least 75M
with no individual holding breaching the 3% disclosure limit

Added to the above this means that around 528M out of a total share capital of 586M is now in the hands of people more inclined to" Accumulate" rather than "Dispose" of their holdings
It also strongly suggests that the MMS are the only Big Traders left in the free marke and have been for a considerable number of weeks if not months

And looking forward we can assume that

When the MMS Buy it is likely to be a stock accumulation exercise on behalf of a principal or possibly and more rarely on their own account
And

When the MMS Sell it is likely to be a stock transfer exercise to the principal

However for a smooth stock transfer from MM to principal at a previously agreed price requires two circumstances to be aligned
1 The MM has accumulated a big enough parcel to transfer to his principal
2 The free market price has entered the bid offer spread range needed to process the transfer without looking odd
This seems the only logical explanation for large parcels changing hands in a thin volume market with negligible impact on the bid/offer spread

Otherwise

The chronic shortage of stockshould would have resulted in a wildy fluctuating free market with an sp all over the place despite relatively small trades

100,000 lifted at 67. nice

4% gain today thats better.

not overly concerned here. tells you something that these have held in well over the last 2 weeks. committed to them still!

Same here prop,keep the faith.

Lovely jubbly

the sp is falling
.....artificially of course as the market has long since been cornered
... the MMs are in control and are now trying to hoover up small holdings on behalf of the big boys
The only news worth focussing on is the RNS on Fidelity increasing their holding

Just bought some more at a great price

On 14 March 05
Avis brand owner Cendant announced integration of their Avis ( non Europe and Asia ) car rental business into their global Hotel and Vacations businesses
The integration is being done to generate cost efficiencies and provide a platform for future global synergies
As a direct consequence the Avis CEO and Cendant representative on the Avis Europe Kevin Sheehan has left Cendant and resigned from the AVE Board
Meanwhile AVE majority owner D`Ieteren has acquired a US windscreen replacement business thru their global subsidiary Belron
Belron`s new acquisition would benefit from closer links with Cendant`s Avis US business

Since this March press release by Cendant
And
Looked at from a PR standpoint
some rather obvious and positive stock market announcements seem to have been deliberately suppressed by all 3 parties
D`Ieteren
has not commented on the potential to link more closely with Cendant in the US
One would have thought this was on obvious synergy to mention after the acquisition was done and dusted
Neither Cendant nor AVE
have commented on whether the Cendant integration exercise will be extended to identify cost savings to both parties in Europe and Asia
And Kevin Sheehan
has not been replaced on the AVE Board
Why ?
When you consider that
D`Ieteren own around 60%
Around 15 % of AVE is the hands of Fidelity and Franklin
And at least 10% of the remainder is in the hands of 4 or 5 big buyers who wish to remain anonymous
Large parcels exceeding 1m shares were changing hands at 70 to 72p just before the 25 May EGM when one could reasonably expect some nervous sellers to be about and MMs to hoover up at Dyson pace on behalf of Big Buyers
Since then the sp has drifted downwards with MMs providing regular stimulus by trading 100 to 200 shares at 5min interval on days when little business is being transacted by real people The current sp of around 64p is therefore artificial
The obvious conclusion to draw is that good news about AVE which could tend to raise the sp is being deliberately avoided while news about tough trading conditions etc is being deliberately played up in order to let these greedy big buyers acquire the last 15% thru an hovering up exercise worked in conjunction with the MMs
Hence there is a Cendant bid in the pipeline with only the timing in doubt

HELL OF A POST...you have certainly been working on this hard.

i will do a bit of digging as well...

Well well

Deutsche Bank AG have declared a 3.43% interest
with Fidelity holding 9.30%
Franklin holding 7.71%
D`Ieteren holding 59.60%
Total 80.04%
80% of the declared ownership is now in the hands of 4 owners

Allowing 4m shares for share options
this leaves a free market of not more than 112m shares
And
given the sheer volume of tranactions exceeding 1M shares in recent months
A minimum of at least a further 60M shares are being held by at least 4 big buyers none of whom hold more than the the 3% threshold of 17.6m
Probably MMs holding to sell on to one of the big 4 at an agreed commission
What does this mean for the little man
Hang on in there the sp is going to rocket in the next 6m

you can't argue with the maths...

my concern is that there is a seller out there who may keep reloading. will watch and maybe buy more....

Prop

Can`t believe any of the current big 4 owners would seriously contemplate selling and reloading AVE in a big way

D`Ieteren holdings were bought at an average of around 100p-110p
Fidelity holdings were bought at an average of around 80p
Franklin holdings were bought at an average of around 87p
Deutche Bank holdings were bought at an average of around 65p to 70p


These holdings represent 80 % ownership
Hence
1% of AVE stock sold by these guys is equivalent to 4% of the residual free market
(and that assumes there are no other big owners .. which is very unlikely)
They therefore can`t dump shares without an sp catastrophe and a big loss
Indeed this is another reason why there must be a bid is in the offing
Fidelity , Franklin and now Deutche Bank have bought into AVE thru MMs who are quite happy to hoover up small parcels on their behalf for an agreed commission
Thats why every 10 days or so you see big parcels of exceeding 200000 shares being processed as deals when they are actually transfers between the MM and his principal
And
These movements are happening without any noticeable change in the bid / offer price
So
To sell and reload requires a MM do the reverse

ie sell off massive amounts of stock in dribs and drabs without seriously affecting the sp
This cant happen because if you think about it
The MMs can only hold manipulate the sp if they are in a position to buy and sell in roughly equal volumes
They can only buy if the have the security of a Principal`s order behind them
If they can only sell the sp will collapse

the thing is though that this is an order driven stock and not MM controlled so you are right to a point. at the moment there is a seller reloading 50/- at the offer when lifted (obviously not today, too thin!)

of course there may be orders out there being fed into the mkt.

saying this i agree that something is going on and i suspect that the stock is being held down (in lots of 50/- which is insignificant) to keep control of the price so a buyout/takeover/MBO may be at the 80 ish level as opposed to 100p.

interesting conspirital stuff with more than a hint of the truth!

There have been a fair number ( 20 to 30 ) days since Jan 05 when there has been an "order driven" trade ( buys and sells) of 100 sometimes 200 shares every 5 mins all day
80% of the trades have been tiny on these days
When you look at the Broker codes responsible for these tiny deals they are the same people more or less who jump in now and then with deals exceeding 500000 and sometimes 1M AVE shares
From a dealing cost standpoint these tiny trades are only cost effective if they are broker to broker where the commission by agreement will be non existent This is despite being recorded as "order driven" trades
Why are they doing this ?
It may simply be to steer the sp into a range where they can transfer accumulated stock to their Principal at a previously agreed price pretending it is a real time deal when in fact it is prearranged
In any event
when 80% of the Co is in the hands of 4 owners the sp of the remaining 20% is irrelevant when a bid is being contemplated
I can`t see D`Ieteren selling AVE at a loss although I would expect a side deal benfitting the Belron acquisition in the USA

The weaknesses in the D`Ieteren position is that they have
used up 19 yrs of their 50 yr licence to the Avis Brand and probably need to renegotiate an extension over the next 5 yrs or so
They certainly could not afford to be providing working capital indefinitely to a business which is not self funding
AVE need restructured to reduce its cost base This is possible if aligned to other global Cendant businesses but probably impossible if aligned to other global D`Ieteren businesses
My money is on 100p to 110p some time after the Share Premium resolution is endorsed by the courts in early July 05

Morning nice to see blue numbers at ave.

From Avis Europe Website

Shareholder Composition

Shareholder Composition for Avis Europe as at February 2005.

Majority Shareholder 59.7

Institutional Holding 33.2

Private Individuals 3.5

Directorial Holding 0.2

Other 3.4

Total 100.0 %

Since Feb 2005 Fidelity have added 1.3% , Templeton 0.7% and Deutche Bank probably around 1% These owners now account for 19% out of 36% of the business
held by Institutions
Also if the Institutions have been of the same mind since Jan2005 then these holidings additions have come at the expense of holdings by "private individuals" and "other" suggesting that these now total not more than 5% which will include employee share schemes

Assuming the Institutions are in "buying" not "selling" mode the "free market"
is now not more than 4 to 4.5% or 25M to 30M shares in total
This represents a chronic stock shortage and may explain why a 0.25p sp price increase can be caused by a buy order for 20000 worth of shares

i agree, there is a seller around that may be overhanging the stock a little. i would love to have a go and try and lift him.

Prop
If you feel brave

and trust your fingers to press the right button...........

Place a buy order for 500000 shares just to see what the sp would be .........
I betcha it would be over 70p
Then hit the cancel button immediately.......

no need to committ, just ask your broker for a price and size! (or if prefer ask him for a price in a million).

my broker is away this week and if i ask GNI or IG they will be grossly uncompetitive. who do you use and how well do you know your broker?

will see about this tomorrow

Prop
Not well enough to get a quote just for interest sake......

understood. leave it with me.

We know that
59.6% of AVE shares are owned by D`Ieteren
And
Institutions holdings were33% in Feb 2005
And
A further 3.6% of shares are not in play due to share schemes and options for employees and Directors
Then
The free market in AVE shares was not more than 3.8% in Feb 2005

Lets assume say 2% of this 3.8% was traded since Feb2005 which is probably an overestimate
Then since
Transactions from Feb2005 to 13 June 2005 accounted for 13.2%
This suggests that around 11% of the volume during this period was accounted for by Institutions trading with each other probably coupled with massive amounts of double counting as MMs bought from one Institution and sold to another Institution
None of the big sells or buys seemed to have any effect on the sp for the small trades which immediately followed these big deals
During this period the sp rose from 60.25p on 1 March 2005 to 73p and fell back to
63.75p on 13 June 2005
The key drivers over the period was anticipation of good news on 25 May and subsequent disappointment when the outlook was bearish

This suggests that in the absence of hard news the future sp for AVE is likely to hover around the present level of 62p to 64p
Since
Institutions that want more stock have to avoid the free market since there isnt enough volume to meet demandalthough they will probably have standing orders
with MMs for whatever stock they can buy at an agreed mark up

Institutions that want to dump stock must avoid the free market since the impact on the sp would be catastrophic as happened in Dec 04 They need to negotiate a sale with other Institutions
3 The only consistent day to day buyers in the free market are the MMs with competition on a random basis from small shareholders
4 The only consistent day to day sellers in the free market are small shareholders
replaced by MMs when they see a shortage of sellers starting to impact the price
The good news is that at least 3 Institutions two US and one German believe AVE is a good investment worth increasing their holdings despite the bearish outlook

65 bid

Prop
Interesting
Either a MM is dealing on own acct and has accumulated enough stock for a quick profit
Or
Broker has phoned around and found a Fund wanting to take some profit
since most big buys since 4 Jan were below 64p
Also
it suggests
The 3 named Funds are unwilling to pay top dollar at the moment

seller defiantely around. bases are loaded at 64, 64.25, 64.5 and 65.

If big seller is indeed a fund reducing its holding at a profit or break even
...........sp ought to bottom out at 61/62p
.....and rise thereafter

one hopes but we need to find a clearing level for the stock. if that level is 61/2 then great. it may however be lower. this is a classic overhang order and you are right, once clear these should bounce strongly.

40M shares changed hands in Feb/March between 60p - 63.75p The large parcels over 200000 had minimal impact on the sp for the deals immediately succeeding them This must have been the buying price range for any "new" institutions who joined the party perhaps with an eye to getting out around now
If so

.....Only a fund desperate to get out and move on will go into a loss situation by forcing the sp significantly below current level
Perhaps
....... this overhang could drag on a bit if the big 3 decide not to top up their holdings
Assuming no new Fund emerges as a buyer
..... The telltale will be more of the same
ie parcels over 200000 changing hands with negligible impact on the sp signifying the processing of transfers between MMs and Funds or between Funds

it is too thin today to guess what is going on but the seller of 50/- at 64 has been there all day and there has been small buying on any dip.

very low volume though, hard to jusdge what is really happening.

well at least we now know. sold my entire holding at 55...no interest playing a rights game over the next few years even if 100% underwritten.

Regulatory Announcement

Go to market news section

Company Avis Europe PLC
TIDM AVE
Headline Rights Issue
Released 07:01 16-Jun-05
Number 6394N



RNS Number:6394N
Avis Europe PLC
16 June 2005



16 June 2005

NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION IN WHOLE OR IN PART, DIRECTLY OR
INDIRECTLY, IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, CANADA, AUSTRALIA, THE
REPUBLIC OF IRELAND, THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA OR JAPAN

Avis Europe plc

Proposed 4 for 7 Rights Issue of 334,736,017 New Shares at 35 pence per share to
Qualifying Shareholders
and announcement of margin recovery strategy

Avis Europe plc today announces that it proposes to raise approximately 110.5
million, net of expenses, by the issue of approximately 334.7 million New Shares
at a price of 35 pence per New Share by way of a rights issue to Qualifying
Shareholders. This Rights Issue will provide the Group with the capital to move
forward with the next phase of its recovery strategy from a stronger base.

Highlights of the recovery strategy

Two primary objectives - targeted profitable growth and ongoing cost
reduction
Successful implementation targeted to deliver an improvement in
operating margins of 3-5 percentage points over 3-4 years
Phased strategy with low execution risk - first phase well underway
Builds on the Group's core strengths including the Avis and Budget
brands and networks
Senior management team significantly strengthened

Details of the Rights Issue

Net proceeds of approximately 110.5 million
4 New Shares for every 7 Shares at 35 pence per Share
Represents a 34% discount to the theoretical ex-rights price of 53 pence
Proposed issue of 334.7 million New Shares represents approximately 36.4
per cent of enlarged issued share capital
Major shareholder, D'Ieteren, irrevocably committed to taking up
approximately 70 million of New Shares representing its full entitlement
under the Rights Issue
Balance of New Shares fully underwritten by Dresdner Kleinwort
Wasserstein
Requires approval of ordinary resolutions by shareholders at EGM to be
held on 4 July 2005
Prospectus and Provisional Allotment Letters expected to be posted on 4
July 2005

Rationale for the Rights Issue

Enables delivery of the next phase of the recovery strategy
Strengthens capital base

Commenting, Chief Executive Murray Hennessy said:

"This Rights Issue will enable us to move forward with our recovery strategy. It
will fund targeted, profitable growth and strengthen our capital base. Having
taken a number of important decisions over the past year, the recovery strategy
is now well underway and is being implemented by a strengthened management team.
We believe that successful implementation of our margin recovery strategy should
deliver an improvement in operating margins of between three and five percentage
points over the next three to four years."

Enquiries:

Avis Europe plc Tel: 01344 426644
Murray Hennessy, Chief Executive
Martyn Smith, Group Finance Director

Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein Tel: 020 7623 8000
Jonathan Roe
Julian Smith

Lazard Tel: 020 7187 2000
Marcus Agius
Matthew Jarman

Brunswick Tel: 020 7404 5959
Susan Gilchrist
Craig Breheny

Bye Prop
You leave me a bit puzzled why you didn`t hold on until July when you can get out after selling both ordinary and nil paid shares............

Bit of a shock this as i was out all day yesterday,stop losses came good just,but this is unbelievable for avis.

Can somebody confirm that I have understood this correctly

For every 7 shares currently owned you get the "right" to buy 4 shares at 35p each
And

These rights can be traded during the period 5 July to 25 July after which the option lapses
and you get nothing if you don`t either sell the "right" or pay 35p per share for each "right"
Therefore
From today until 4 July
One "right" is notionally worth (sp-35)p
Four "rights" are notionally worth 4x(sp-35)p
Since Four rights are acquired for every 7 existing ordinary shares

And
7 shares are worth 7x(sp)
Then the "adjusted" or true value of a current share from today until 4 July when the nil paid shares start trading is

4x(sp-35)p + 7x(sp)
......................
7

where sp = the current sell price

If this interpretation is correct the Adj Value of an AVE share over the next few weeks wolud be as shown below
sp adj sp
0.60 0.74
0.60 0.74
0.60 0.73
0.59 0.73
0.59 0.73
0.59 0.72
0.59 0.72
0.58 0.71
0.58 0.71
0.58 0.71
0.58 0.70
0.57 0.70
0.57 0.69
0.57 0.69
0.57 0.69
0.56 0.68
0.56 0.68
0.56 0.67
0.56 0.67
0.55 0.67
0.55 0.66
0.55 0.66
0.55 0.66

simple calcualtion for rights:

4:7 shares:

shares last night closed at 63p
rights are at 35p

((4x35p)+(7x63p))/11 = 52.81p

that is the implied price ex-rights. The fact is that since they are not ex yet you work out the price the day befor the 5 july to see what they will be trading at. So in theory they have responded very well to this because i thought with such a deep issue they may have opened nearer 45p today.

The fact is that there has been support today but i am out because i have lost faith in management. yes they may turn it around and the market has recieved this well BUT a further deteriation of trading will see these close to rights price.

I wish you all well and may pop in from time to time.

good luck!

Double figure drop, what's happened here?
edit: must be the rights.

The sale of Hertz must be good news for Ave
At worst
D`Ieteren can now sell Ave back to Cendant who then sell on to Hertz`s new owners with or without adding Avis Inc and after securing a long term car hire contract for their leisure business
The new owners then make massive cost savings in infrastructure in the Ave countries and possibly in Avis Inc countries also
The Ave sp to keep existing big stakeholders happy must be around 110p pre rights

ie 82p

There seems to be a major difference in the profile on avis investors in recent weeks
ie
Allowing for take up of rights issue
A trade of 110000 pre rights would be similar value to 150000 post rights
And yet
The average trade size seems to has fallen dramatically when you might have expected the reverse
Does this mean that the recent bull run is being driven by brand new small investors ?
And that most of the people who participated in the rights issue are either sitting tight or selling in (for them) small quantities ...perhaps to recoup their outlay on the rights?

this has not been revisitd for a while, and the sp has eased a bit fro the heady heights mentioned here. I now have it at 46 mid.
Has anyone had a good look at this? It was very much sold during the last few weeks, however, it seem to be bouncing back (and money to be made? ... DYOR)
My question, level 2 seems to have no buyers, however the sp is creeping up all day! Is there a term for this kind of scenario? (apart from the obvious if no one wants to buy the it is cr**); is it worth a dip TA people?

I have watched this drift all the way from 90p in the last few months.

I bought in today .............. their results are out on Tuesday and they could get a filip, hopefully to the upside.

But to be honest, they could just as easily drift lower.

So for me, its just a short term punt, rather than a hold.

Cheers
Amar

p.s.
What are your views on Partygaming today ...... high volume ... but closed lower.

may try and get in early tuesday then (of-course I have an entry poit in mind)

PRTY .. ? volumes were half thursday's too many PI's early on, which made for a gd start but (seemed to be) lots of profit taking (from thursday??) did not help, and neither did the early in DOW "FUTURES". Never-the-less, Fridays's 23m volumes are not usual (STILL) coupled with Thursday's 43m .. so I still think there is something to it - DYOR

wake up everyone you are missing something here!!

Not a lot its bound to fall next week to 5p.

Glad to be wrong 10p.. !

Avis ave

Just look at the repeat pattern on the lower indicator RSI and how everytime it hits the 60 support line it bounces back of the support with a lovely move up in the SP.

Rather uncanny how many times this as happened since the middle of may.

The sp in the intermediate time is hugging a upward trend line started in early may.

Looks good for further rises from here to break support at 43p 51p and then 75p:

gf
i hope you are right. bought at 23 took profit at 37 and bought back in yesterday on down day and added today. thats it. sitting tight now. for the time being,
regards
jkd

Added a few bob on avis ave looks like theirs a buying charge going on at the moment.

stopped out today.
regards
jkd

We had a largely bullish interim management statement from AVE in November http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200911170700095975C and of late we have seen some very good results from travel companys which seem to have been very resiliant during the down turn, so it comes as a bit of a suprise that the stocks SP has underperformed in the last few months.

Could that be about to change????



Seems to me we have hit a bottom at 25p which is proving to be very resiliant support. Are we about to break out??.

TIME TO TRAVEL BY CAR.

Seems to me the business model of Avis is in jeopardy and the company could go under soon... 18.75p now.

Now that chart I was promosing. Avis Europe. AVE.

A lot more to come here in my opinion........