The trading statement announced a slowing of sales growth,margins are under pressure as B&Q and Carpetright have entered the market recently depriving them of their semi monopoly, it has a ridulously high price earnings ratio, the graphics are now very negative after its pre Christmas spurt, retail spending on discretionery items is gone negative (witness cars). The respected Investors Chronicle is very bearish on them.

Already sold

Still plenty of growth potential with new store roll-outs and established market presence. Add to that a solid dividend and I don't think it's time to bail just yet. In fact, if they drop back to 2 it will be a buying opportunity IMO.

Ticking back up the last couple of days. Life in this one I feel...

Been in these for a long time now. Good strong steady growth over a very long period of time. Not for those looking for stellar growth over a few days or months but so much better than being in the bank. Long may the trend continue.

B2B

The IC have been bearish for a long time!! But they keep getting good press in newspapers. I belkieve it's because it's an easily-understood activity.

I sold these a little while ago at a reasonable profit, my worry about them was that with the diminishing house market and drive to spruce up houses to sell will there be a slow down in very good turnover or sales.

I also think there is going to be a slight downturn in economy and possibly rise in unemployment leaving less surplus cash for home improvements.

Could be wrong, not unknown, ask my kids.

Do they own any shares - if so, any tips!!

I suppose my logic with TPT is that if new houses are being built their products will be in demand and if new housing becomes too expensive people will buy tiles and floor covering to spruce up their existing homes. So hopefully they may be sheltered to some extent to any down turn in the market.

Happy with that logic brain2brain.

Queen1, Daughter's Tip. Sold TFC (bought at 15p) and bought CRM with the cash, also thinks her RTD, bought at 5.5 and 5p have a lot further to go. I won't tell you the various prices that I bought TFC at, but I am not speaking to my daughter for a while it is too painful to be reminded of my inadequacies. (Had to check the spelling of that, she is better than me at that too.) Have a nice Sunday.

Queen1, Not certain as my addled mind may be misreading the article in this weeks IC on shorting. But seems to suggest TPT for shorting on similar grounds to me for selling.

Good luck hope it goes as you expect.

Fred1new, if that is the case there seems to be an awful lot of confusion about TPT. Shares Mag is still a big supporter but then I think John Marshall who always does the write-up owns shares. Is it me or does he own shares in virtually every UK retailer?!

Possibly, just before he tips them. Only joking honest!!

Looking at the graph for the last year you can see that there has been a huge acceleration in price increase in the last 2 or 3 months. My last tranche bought in mid Nov is showing a profit to date of 26.6%. Its not suprising therefore if there is some minor correction (although the price is still well above any trend line connecting relative lows). The fundamentals of this very good firm still look good (imo). I still think there is more to come.

Cheers

B2B

Hope you can run an automatice stop loss. If so why not, but if it did drop below 235p I would cut and run. IMHO

brain2brain I'm still in your camp but, as ever, looking nervously over the fence into Fred1new's in case I'm missing something. Sticking at the moment until a better hand comes along or I'm forced to twist (sorry, enough of the blackjack already...)

You can't keep a good share down. This one is unlikely to show gains of 5 or 10% in a day but it does keep ticking over .3%, .7%, 1.2% etc. Happy to stay in tis one for sometime yet

B2B

Thinks it's hitting the top at the 270p mark, tempted to short the stock through a spread bet. I believe a lot of people are deluding themselves of any protection to a falling property market and associated items, (tile shops) it is already happening and the stories by estate agents etc are total tosh. oddly enough I wouldn't short builders (wouldn't buy them either but do hold some Persimmon). The competition from the likes of B&Q are hardly going to improve trading any more and further outlets cost a lot of money. - which are hopeless if they don't sell enough tiles to cover the cost. If I owned I would be taking profits. The shares recommendation could also be a signal to sell - not being rude but I remember the buy recommendations such as Pressac, Henlys and Mayflower etc.

imo /dyor

Agm statement looked like a veiled profit warning imho as profits unsustainable, market leading position referred may not be so for long with other competitors and the Board Director is stepping down to devote more time to other work, ie less time to Topps tiles. yet some people are still buying ??? I would be a seller.

Anyone know why there's been a 3% drop this morning?

No, queen1. I wondered. Probably just profit-taking but I am a bit nervous. 250,000 shares gone through this morning, which is not a huge number I think.

Maggot - I decided to cut and run. Made a 50% profit in 6 months which can't be sniffed at. Good luck if staying in.

down a bit today which takes the stock well below the trend lines, next support appears to be at the 180p level. With the current outlook on retail markets and the TA it would appear it has further to drop.

I know you should not get attached to a share so I sold most of mine at about 245. At present I guess with this trend that the rest may have to go.

It's not just profit taking, retail sales generally well down, property not changing hands and therefore middle england not laying new tiles. TA now shows the sp well below the support line of the rising trend and the next support stop is 180p - sell up in May ( or march) and come back on St Ledgers day, may hold true with a number of stocks this year, TPT being one of them.

love to all

Minx

Topps Tiles PLC
23 March 2005

Topps Tiles

Interim Pre Close Trading Update

Topps Tiles, the UK's biggest ceramic tile and wood flooring specialist is
pleased to announced that overall turnover for the 26 week period ended 2 April
2005 is expected to be in the region of 87 million, with like for like sales
for the same period expected to be an increase of 8%. However in the last four
weeks we have experienced very tough trading with like-for-like sales for these
four weeks alone running at between 2-3% below the same period last year.

Operational profit before tax is expected to be approximately 19.5 million. In
addition, there is an exceptional profit on property disposals of 1.5 million
to give a 26 week total profit before tax in the region of 21 million, an
approximate increase of 35% on last years 27 week comparative.

The Board expects to announce its interim results for the 26 week period to 2
April 2005 on Tuesday 24 May 2005.

Has this been oversold? certainly looking interesting again.

Watch out,there are some stocks that fall out of favour with the market and never fully restore to their former glory.This could be one of them...IMHO

Thanx Ethel. Opinion appreciated

azhar, I was thinking similar, closed my short at the 180 support line, see now it has dropped to the 162 and is hovering around there. Could be looking to recover a little. ??

It is now below the support - now a resistance, no support below this ??? At long term the next support is somewhere around 57p

I'm back in. I sold back in February but feel the time is right to dip my toe back in again. This threads's been quiet for a while. Anybody else out there still in TPT?

Hi,
I,ve never owned them and whilst ethel's opinion is valid, there is a persuasive write up in TMI out last Sat (TPT being one of their successes). Also, Shares mag on Fri included them in a general retail article for similar reasons.
I'm going to give them a go.

Best of luck carl1965....and welcome to the party!

Nice rise of 4% today, probably attributable to the figures from Dixons which weren't quite as bad as the market feared.

Been quiet on here recently. Well I feel that this week's results were splendid given the recent state of the high street and housing markets. Definitely more to come from Topps in 2006!

Group turnover up 10% to 173.3m (2004: 157.6m)
Like for like sales increased by 3.4% (2004:21.5%)
Core store (stores opened pre September 2002) like for like sales up 1.6%
group gross margin improved to 61.3% (2004: 60.5%)
Operating costs represented 40% of turnover (2004: 39.9%)
Profit Before Tax up 16.1% to 39.2m (2004: 33.8m)
Profit before tax, excluding exceptional capital items, up 12.9% to 37.5m (2004: 33.3m)
Basic EPS up 18.1% to 13.34p (2004:11.30p)
Final net dividend 6.00 pence payable 31 January 2006
Total dividend of 9.50 pence per share (2004: 8.00 pence) up 18.8%
Strong cash generation with net cash balances of 21.8 m at period end

Hi.
Does anyone think the share will get to last year's level, 270+ any time soon? Bought at 199p and sold at 245p then got carried away & bought loads @ 235p & 265p (!!!) believing they would go all the way to 300p+. Nursing heavy losses at the moment. Had sleepless nights when it hit the lows of 156p 3 weeks ago!!! Didn't have the courage to buy more then to average down which would have been great with hindsight! Now testing 200p but wondered if someone believes this will re-test 260-270p anytime soon?? this week's results are actually really good & encouraging (new stores allegedly doing very well !) but good enough to take share price back up to 270p+??. Bit disappointed that final dividend wasn't increased though (was hoping for 8p !). Does anyone have any thoughts/predictions on the potential share price in the next 2/3 mths?
Thanks for replying.
A worryingly out of pocket TPT holder

Good to hear from you oddie. No TPT crystal Ball I'm afraid but I do feel these will continue to climb (not sure about 270p-300p though). It's a quality operation that has continued to prosper in difficult trading conditions when those around it have struggled. The housing crash that everyone talked about looks to have been nothing more than a soft landing and property prices seem to be starting to gently rise again. And if people are moving they'll be using TPT products.

Plus, it's a sound business model, built on strong financials. And, I wouldn't be totally surprised to see a bid for the company by 2007. Then you might see 300p.

Thanks for reply, Queen1.
As you said, the company is sound, with strong financials and possibly a bid target in a not too distant future.
Unfortunately the market got a bit carried away with the share this time last year (& me with it!) - from 170p to a high of 277p in just over 2 mths, only for it to crash with a bang following a "profit warning" (company effectively telling the market not to get toooo carried away IMHO).
I was a mid/long term holder so didn't sell even when it hit my stop loss of 250p! Should have done and bought back later when things had settled a bit. The beauty of hindsight!
As I said, I like the company and think it'll do extremely well when the housing market picks up again but I agree that my only chance to ever break even+ might be with a takeover bid!
W.Buffet said that "a long term investment is an investment gone wrong...." might not agree totally but then again.....

Thanks for reply, Queen1.
As you said, the company is sound, with strong financials and possibly a bid target in a not too distant future.
Unfortunately the market got a bit carried away with the share this time last year (& me with it!) - from 170p to a high of 277p in just over 2 mths, only for it to crash with a bang following a "profit warning" (company effectively telling the market not to get toooo carried away IMHO).
I was a mid/long term holder so didn't sell even when it hit my stop loss of 250p! Should have done and bought back later when things had settled a bit. The beauty of hindsight!
As I said, I like the company and think it'll do extremely well when the housing market picks up again but I agree that my only chance to ever break even+ might be with a takeover bid!
W.Buffet said that "a long term investment is an investment gone wrong...." might not agree totally but then again.....

Hi everyone,

Re. TPT
Share price sliding continuously over last few days. From 200p to 192p bid now. A few pences down every day. Not sure how that can be stopped without positive updates from the Company...

How is the chart looking at the moment??
Thanks for reply

I've been watching TPT since it tested May's 160pish low again in October. I see it has now bounced down off the intervening 200pish high. If it comes back down and through the 160p level I will go short. Until then, it is indeterminate, but on macro fundamentals after such a long and sustained run up the SP must look vulnerable to profit taking in a major way looking at the general prognosis for retail businesses, especially those related to the housing market. I don't think we've seen nuffin' yet in terms of house price falls over the next year or so, when imported inflation may well cause interest rates to rise again. All IMHO - DYOR.

sd

Thanks for reply Stockdog.

Altough TPT are affected by the retail slowdown, they are in a niche market and all things considered, looking at TPT latest results, they are actually doing pretty well 'in tough market conditions' + do you know of many companies having a 60%+
gross profit margin?!?
They have a v. healthy balance sheet and are slowly expanding towards their 350 outlets target therefore increasing their market share.

Their plus points: biggest & best choice of quality product at competitive prices.
Also their customer service is second to none; I don't know if you've ever been to one of their stores and talked to their staff. I do, every now and then (I have a lot of money invested in them after all !) -without telling them I'm a shareholder and I am never disappointed!
In fact when I called one of their newly opened warehouses in Folkestone/Kent pretending to be a potential customer, I was even invited to a tour and a glass of champagne! and no, they weren't so bored that they didn't have anything else to do - the store was actually buzzing w/ customers buying (with a glass of champagne in their hands!!!).

The short term is admittedly volatile but the mid to long term outlook is v. good. The current 5% yield is also very attractive and well above average.

Patience will be needed to see last year's levels again but we'll get there -quicker in the event of a takeover bid and let's face it what a great company to buy: if it can weather the storm fairly unscathed then imagine when times are good/really good!


Comments welcomed..

Hello!

Didn't get any comments on my last posting of Dec. 8th. This board seems rather sedate....anyone there??

The share price since then has gone up and up steadily and briefly touched 217p! I think the Market expects good results next week...

Topps Tiles has been tipped as a share to hold for 2006.

Has anyone got any comments???

Thanks for replying.

I'm trading long at the moment since it breached 200p recently - hoping for it to go up and up, having expected it to go down and down and had to close a premature short in November.

Looking forward to good news in the results.

sd

Thanks Stockdog!

Do you think this will go back to last year's 250/270p levels any time soon? I'm asking because Topps Tiles has been tipped as a share for 2006 as the retail sector is expected to outperform the Market after performing abysmally in the last 8 mths.

What is your target/prediction?

Wondering what the chart looks like....?
Must be looking interesting...

Thanks for replying.

Oddie

Well, after a 2 year relentless climb from 50p to a peak of 270p end of 2005 (why wasn't I in then?!!!), it fell back sharply last year with all the interest rate and housing recession concerns to form a very strong double bottom at just below 160p with an inter-trough peak of just above 200p. So classic chart theory says, having broken through the inter-trough peak we should continue up to 240p (the same distance again as from trough of 160p to inter-peak of 200p). So I'm looking for 240p near term and then see if we can assail the previous peak range of 250-270p. I also have a solid trailing stop loss in place just to be sure in what I think could be an uncertain year - just as FTSE is scaling new peaks and everything in the garden is lovely is the time for punters to be caught napping.

I would hold definitely whilst the current phase is on. Who knows how long or how high it will last.

Good luck.

sd

Thanks for reply Stockdog!

It looks as if others agree with your prediction, i.e 245p+

Unfortunately I bought higher than that so I'm hoping it'll re-test the 265p+ sometime in the next few months.
I had many sleepless nights when it hit 156p back in October but I knew the Company and its fundamentals were good so didn't panic!!

Extract from " UK-ANALYST.com":

Evolution's retail guru Nick Bubb said that he had high hopes for DSG International, Topps Tiles and Jessops this year. Bubb argued that the perception that the recent gloom about the retail sector had been overdone would attract bargain hunters and more trade/private equity bids. The broker upped his target on DSG to 180p from 167p and maintained his "add" stance. The shares lost 4p to 166.75p. Jessops target was hiked to 120p from 110p, with an "buy" rating. The shares rose 3.75p to 98.25p. Topps Tiles target was raised to 245p from 220p and the broker maintained an "add" rating. The shares fell 0.75p to 212.25p. Bubb argued that the area which interested him most was the sector that was hit the hardest in 2005, namely the big-ticket household goods retailers.

Maybe it's time I re-named this thread "Time to BUY Topps Tiles" !

Here's to good results next week...good luck.

Oddie