I have been a holder of this stock for the past 8 months and intent to hold for at least two years to gain the maximum CGT relief as its AIM listed.

I have topped up my holding recently as TPA looks well undervalued to me at the current price of 19.5p.

Reasons as follows:

2004 results (due in March) should show 85% growth on 2003 - EPS of 1.3p. This will give a historic PE of 15 at the current price.

Estimates for 2005 indicate a further 46% growth in earnings to 1.9p which could, IMO, be conservative considering the impact of the big contracts signed in 2004 are yet to fully kick in. The PE estimate is only 10.26 for 2005 - way too low IMO for a growth company.

2006 estimates are for 2.4p of EPS (PE 8.1) - this is why I am holding for at least 2 years - the shares should double to 40p if things stay on track and CGT will be only 5 or 10% with the taper relief.

The earnings have high visibility and should be rated as such - most contracts are signed for 3 or 5 years plus with a good chance of repeat business, contract extensions etc.

Strong cash generation paying off debt for aquisitions.

Contracts with big players such as Virgin, Matalan, BAA, BMI Healthcare and Dixons.

The technology division has the potential to significantly increase earnings which have not been considered in the earnings estimates.

TripleArc is now the 4th biggest print management provder in the UK and still growing - maybe takeover potential there.

Risks:

UK economy might go down hill adversely affecting TPA margins/contracts.
Shares are fairly illiquid and volatile.
Margins get squeezed.
Debt fairly high but being rapidly repaid.
Increased competition.

Overall I feel comfortable to hold a high percentage of my portfolio in this company - my two year timeframe should hopefully see the shares double in value baring unforseen disasters.

Website : http://www.triplearcplc.com/

Shareshark

Results are due out anytime now - if anyone is watching TPA now could be the time to buy in.

been on this one for ages.... and still waiting!

Prelim results will be out on Thurday 14th April for those with an interest - decided to buy a few more this morning as I think the market should be impressed going forward.

MM`s appear short of stock too today - on-line buy limits much lower than the sell limits - I have topped up at 20p today.

Excellent results - yes bang in line - confident outlook statement too.

Also ""The new business activity within AccessPlus remains high and the division is currently at preferred bidder
status with a large financial services business to provide a significant print management
contract. The Board expects to be able to confirm details of the contract soon"".

For comfortable holding TPA for the - if they remain oncourse for 1.9p EPS TPA is on a P/E of less than 10 for 2005 -
50% to cheap IMO.

http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200504140700100329L.html

SS

Looking through the results statement in more detail this is a significant section with regard to 2005 earnings:

"On an operational level the newly created division performed well and overall sales margins were ahead of initial expectations. However, the achievement of full-scale revenue generation on certain new contracts took longer than originally anticipated due to contract timing delays. Whilst these timing delays impacted on the 2004 financial performance, the Board fully expects the Group to generate the revenues anticipated from these contracts in the current financial year. It is in the nature of these contracts that they require significant management time to win and implement and can involve financial investment to set up. Typically there can be up to a six-month delay before they contribute to Group profitability. We therefore expect to see the full impact from these exciting contract wins during 2005".

This gives me plenty of confidence that Altiums forcast of 1.9p EPS will at least be acheived - possibly beaten as the revenue from Stream and other divisions look like contributing significantly to earnings.

The latest broker note will be interesting to see if they have upgraded.

SS

TPA is quite possibly a very good investment - although the debt will always drag it down a bit - it is very cash generative and they are paying off the debt. As it continues to grow the real value of this one will shine through.

This one gets an II thumbs up.

Topped up with a further 100k over the last few days - 17.5p looks very cheap too me.

It looks even better now. Well worth a punt at these levels.

Could it be the turning point?

The prices has improved all the time since reaching bottom at 7.625p earlier today
the lowest price was buys at 7.87p then 7.93 and later 8p, now 8.10p up to 100K
the sells 7.38p then 7.40 and 7.63 the latest 7.65p on 100K also

From another thread..........
Master RSI - 4 Jul'05 - 11:13 - 25 of 25 edit
UPS
TPA 7.75p
A warning last week that the full year 05 will be less than that reported in 04 .
The technology led print provider said trading in its division's retail has not improved .
The remainder of the group, including the recently acquired Stream
business, performed in line with management expectations.
Falling from 18p the selling is drying up.
Indicators well oversold

Charts - 10 days
edited by moneyam. Breach of copyright

going better today to a very tight spread 8 - 8.25p

The buyers got the upper hand with MM buying 250K at one stage.

offer should move higher tomorrow morning buys 900K sells 300K and 2X100K they are roll over

You think so ? Better get in early then.

See it's really on the up now.

Now thats what you call a Director BUY !

Time to make a decisive move forwards. Very few sellers out there.

Even cheaper now ! Maybe have to add some very soon.

Bloody hell ! Market cap at 14M with 48M turnover !!!! If the profit warning drops the TO to 35 it still has to be a screaming BUY.

Nice rise the last couple of days.

Interesting trades and a very nice rise. Maybe an indication that any overhang has now been cleared. looks cheap compaing market cap to turnover.

Good to see a sharp move higher today.

A great day for TPA and I expect a few more of these as we move closer to the figures being released. It has dropped from 17p to 7p following the profit warning which in reality was a bit overdone.

The early bird may catch the worm.

Overdone for certain now. i see Aviva picked up 5M cheap shares Friday.

Broker Recommendations - Wednesday 5th October 2005, 10:50 am

Altium Securities has upgraded TripleArc (LSE: TPA.L - news) to buy from hold.

In at 3.38 pence...these look likely to double from these levels in the very near future.

Facts we know:

New Finance Director bought 800,000 shares at 7 pence each on 14 July 2005
Aviva bought 4 million shares at around 7 pence each on 14 July 2005
Aviva bought another 5 million shares at 3.50 pence each on 30 September 2005
Altium Securities has upgraded TripleArc (LSE: TPA.L - news) to buy from hold.
on 05 October 2005.

Broker Upgrade Link:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/051005/336/ftpjv.html

Something brewing....mark up on the bid to 3.25 pence....in the blue already.

http://www.printweek.com/news/index.cfm?fuseaction=article&UID=ae9ca122-0f31-4481-8f60-226bc46b5c3c


TripleArc stays focused on hitting its targets
Lauretta Roberts, 06/10/2005
TripleArc chief executive Jason Cromack says that if the group hits its predicted earnings for 2005 its faltering share price will recover.


Shares in the AIM-listed print management group took a knock last week when it announced that financial reporting errors would force it to restate its 2004 earnings to 3.5m from 4.5m, and that earnings for this year would be around half the revised 2004 figure.

Following that announcement and the subsequent publication of its interim results last Friday (30 September), its shares slumped to around 3.5p. The year high is 23p.

Cromack said Friday's price slump was down to one fund manager who "dropped all his shares in one go".
"How do we recover [the share price]? We hit our number. It will make life a lot easier," said Cromack.

He added that the group had the support of its largest shareholder, Morleys, which had just taken a further 5m shares. "They are fully supportive of the growth story," said Cromack.

"We are still profitable, we are still generating cash and we have the support of our shareholders and the support of the bank. What we have to do now is go on and hit our numbers," he said.

In the six months to 30 June 2005, the group posted revenues of 30.07m (2004: 24.03m) and earnings before interest, tax and amortisation (EBITA) of 690,000 (2004: 2.27m). Gross profit was up by more than 4m at 10.1m (2004: 6.03m).

Cromack said that 40% of the group's revenue was contracted and that 10m of new annualised contracted revenue had been signed and implemented in the past 12 months.

"Why did we buy Access Plus [the print manager acquired in 2003]? To give us the scale and infrastructure to go out and win print management contracts and that's what we did last year," said Cromack.

MMs took the pee today by dropping it on that volume !

Nobody interested in this recovery stock then ?

Big volume today ! Someone have news ?

I notice a 1 Million Trade at 5p !!

Great day today and again good volume. Interest now picking up.

Remember there is a 10p BUY rec on this

Doing well again today.

Positive reaction to todays news and I like this bit

The Board remains confident in the prospects for TripleArc and looks forward to
further updating shareholders in April.

Well the news made the FT today hence the rise comming in. It would be nice to see brokers re-iterate their 10p price target.

Print management firm TripleArc gained 0.37 at 4.12 building on yesterday's
gains after it disclosed it has continued to generate good levels of operating
cash flow, enabling it to manage its debt in what it says was a difficult 2005.
In reaction, Altium Securities upgraded its recommendation to 'buy'. The
broker said the fact that TripleArc has not had to issue another profits
warning, that 2005 cash flow expectations have been met and that the group is
winning more work from major clients is positive.


and they did !

looks interesting.. may go in on this mid week depending on funds available and providing current offer holds at this level for the next few days...

Well if you do don't come in for a trade as I am sure the major gains will be made by holding for a while. I can remember AHT and CS. where everyone said they were going down the pan and look at them now.

What an opportunity !

8M market cap and 40M+ T/O

I'm in @4.25p from last week... here's hoping !

Growth Investor mag (April edition)says on page 24 that TripleArc are "very cheap indeed. Buy"

http://www.growthcompany.co.uk/company/articles/TPA/25285/aim-for-10m-and-under.thtml

Cheap TripleArc eyes recovery
Print management specialist TripleArc was something of a Growth Company Investor favourite until a profit warning last July sent the shares tumbling from highs of around 23p to below 4p, giving TripleArc a meagre valuation of 7.8 million.

However, the reason for the warning was the poor performance of the direct mail division of its 640,000 million acquisition Stream. This difficult asset has now been sold (it was offloaded for 1), and the attendant cancellation of an earn-out payment eliminated 900,000 of liabilities from the balance sheet.

The other good news is that the group made enough cash to pay down 500,000 worth of debt. With the remaining business now streamlined and looking likely to thrive, house broker Altium Securities expects 500,000 adjusted profit before tax for the year to December 2005 leading to 0.2p of earnings.

But 2006 is where the difference will be seen: 3.2 million of profits are forecast, with earnings of 1.2p producing a miniscule p/e ratio of 3.1 times. Very cheap indeed. Buy.

Some nice big trades through again today. Looks good for a confirmed break from it's recent lows.

Yep.. it's looking good.. having paid 4.25p beginning of March any upside from here is profit...makes a change for me !

Nice 500K buy reported after close on Thursday which makes things even more interesting. Brokers have a 10p price arget so we could see a continued rise as results approach.

Breakout on the charts now. Should see more of a move higher now and maybe test that 10p target.

Yep, looking even better now ... onwards and upwards !

Nice late 585K Buy to add to the others reported on a T. Looks like someone is picking up chunks.

With the bullish sentiment in the market it will be interesting to see if our buyer continues accumulating tomorrow.

Also looks like there could be a rush if we can get a confirmed chart breakout



It certainly has done it on good volume.

Looks like that chart may have broken out.

still more big trades coming thru as well.. looks as though this is being managed up to an appropriate level.. whatever that may be !

Cool ! still going up..28% so far today...

Happy days. Sky check out AAIR

Yeh.. AAIR looks good... recovering well... might get some meself soon at these levels

Not sure what the're doing to TPA though.. The're rying their best to keep this down.. not sure why they would not want to let this go to where it should be. It's all very well for them to not know why it should go up.. it should be up anyway ! right up!?

Two huge late buys showing on my screen with a combined value of 1.5 m - anybody throw any light on this??........also purchased at .o675 at time when price was showing .0700 buy.
Thanks
Augustman

This is crazy !
the company announces the release the date of when the results will be and the sp goes down already !
have the results been issued already and the're below expectations ? or does somebody already know what they are..?

Not impressed with the silly mm games ! (but then again not surprised either, we're always getting stuffed!)

big hike in the offer this am ?

Look at start of this mail --- stock formerly loved especially by small cap fund managers but messed up big time

Now unbelievable cheap -- price to sales 0.14. --- why --- debt is 18m

However comment from aGM suggests business running free cashflow of c1.8m p.a.

All this with mkt cap 6m !!

Debt probably costing c1m p.a. So ability to pay down 1m of debt in 7 months suggest cashflow before interest payments c3m pa . If the debt gets paid down by 2m a year that's c120,000 saved on interest each year

Barring further weakness -- ie big recession the past investments that drew investors to this company at 20p a share are just about to pass into the virtuous cycle . All this excludes the chances of big orders possible with the new equipment that the managment is also alluding too

Director bought shares just over 4p back in June

Big order --- this stock is moon bound

40% up so far today --- could pause but plenty more to go for by the look of it

Broker put new target price on stock today ....... 10p

Confidant
Looks like your on your own well done nice rise today it was on my watch list.

For once -- right for the right reasons -- doesn't happen too often

Major deal signed with Betterware - 5m earnings - start of the revival me thinks

AM

Deal looks good --- 5m in t/o --not earnings -- over 2 yrs So with Mkt cap 8m not too bad

Likely to add 5% to yrly t/o leaving stock close to .15 price to sales

Risks as looked at above are mainly debt related. Shares have drifted back on a couple of real reasons

1. Cashflow
Positive at results but due to decrease in debtors -- shows the new finance guy is doing his job though --- but not ongoing. Gearing however with new business being won can be seen as a positive from a eps point of view if momentum of business sustained

2 AOL
Big AOL deal but followed by Carphone Warehouse takeover leaves concern about the contract. But there should be compensation if Carphone want to terminate but also upside if TPA are doing as good a job as Betterware believe as they could win the whole Carphone account

By no means a no-brainer but now even a cash call is likely to put a base under the stock at this level with plenty of upside if upfront capex on new deals Betterware and AOL does not blow debt out further.

Market respone a little tardy you could say

some institutional sellers by the look of it waiting for good news to see enough volume to sell as much as they can. Likely to keep stock low for now

Plus as said in interims profits from new business only likely to flow after implementation i.e next year not this

Patience is a virtue as they say

Nice little comments within the statement plus the move itself is verey comforting

patience please

Broker note still has a target price set at 10p.Always reckoned if they can restructure then there is alot of upside potential.

Trading update at EGM Said in line. But cash position key

Said net debt 15m -- same as at interims --- this I think is v positive as must be some upfront costs expenditure into AOL and Betterware deals. Suggesting underyling business running cashflow positive --- this should improve further as AOL contract win works through early stage of program

AOL UK taken over by Carphone Warehouse but contract still seems fine plus if the co any good could impress CPW. Another contract would be nice which in a way capital restructuring is hinting at. But patience for results I think

CLearly cheap if cashflows can start paying off debt -- business growth needs only to be small scale but promises some larger developments

Shareshark started this thread with much expectation of increasing sp...(over 2005-6-7) and confident has followed a similar theme. . . . so it must come as a bit of a blow to see 20p-ish now nearly into the 90% club.
-What went wrong?
Any ideas? - and importantly what are the execs doing about it ? (other than sitting on their hands).
I understand only that this is a printing business and has/had some top-names as customers . . . . of course supplying print is vary competitive with digital imaging making it possible to have the printing done overseas with identical quality.
Is that what's befallen TripleArc?
I hold StIves [SIV](=another printer) which has gained some strength after a fall roughly similar time-scale, (although not so much, as they print Harry Potter!).

hangon

Basically hang on This v small co is over leveraged if operations really run this will turn positive. Can the co do this before interest rates rise to high difficult to say

But operationally in good shape plus recent director purchase adds to positive outlook as unlikely to buy if co about to go under. In my view co not priced as going concern but it is. New management from last year seem to be tackling problems -- debt held despite likely increase in working cap following AOL deal.

Think I've said all along this one will require patience plent y of institutions in with big losses wating to exit on any vol

Patience will be rewarded buy the dips -- upside to 12p+ --- downside 3p i.e to zero

If there was something fundamentally wrong with TPA they would have had to issue an RNS stating the problems. Since the drop no RNS has been issued. What has been seen was a large sell followed buy what looked to be a large buy.However the large sell dropped the price and worried PIs also sold dropping the price to where it is today.

After what looked like a 6M buy we can calculate that there was circa 2.5M plus any PI trades left over. The limit on Friday was 150K on the offer.Tonight it is down to 50K.

Was the drop purely down to a forced seller? Someone taking a tax loss before the year end?

I say again there is no news from the company to say that anything is fundamentally wrong.

Lowest ever price and no takers.

At last some good news from the company.

Well Altium have a BUY note out with 4p stamped on it. Some good buying yesterday and today the online buying has been limited to 15K.

Good risk/reward now.

This has been trending upwards recently off it's lows and results are expected this month. I wonder if some news has leaked out into the market?