Have you a Share with an interesting Trend or TA?
Looking around the various threads and especially Max up your Sip ISA and PEPs thread on Traders Room, I think it may be of interest to see what others have on their watch list or in their portfolios. Ie. Pondering over buying or selling.

Intimating reasons for buying or holding. I was thinking of addressing the thread to longer term trading ie anything over 3mins up to 5years.

If there is interest it may be reasonable to cut and paste some to the postings to a thread under the epic name for further follow up or discussion.

I will kick off with one of my failures, which I should have cut my losses on. But to a certain degree is still a free ride as I sold at the peak to buy again later. (If there is such a thing, and if there is why is it sometimes so bloody painful.)

Amstrad.







Bought originally because of :-

1) Promising rolling yield about 4.8%
2) Dividend cover of about 3
3) Increasing turnover 3years
4) Increasing eps over last 3years
5) I thought the results were good but played down by Sugar as is his way.
6) Interesting Nick knacks with suggestion for boxes of increasing turnover
7) SP Trend line form June /03 until Sept /05 good. Trend line at 103% per annum
8) There has been announcements of further deals for his boxes


But since then had a retracement to about 150 with a kick back up to 193 in February 05 followed by drop to 131 at 10/6/05. Since then there seems to me to be price break out on goodish volume on the 10th /6/05,

I think the trend is reversing but appreciate opinions. I still have reasonable tranche of these and intend holding until annual report 23/9/05

Against it is question whether it shows signs of further retracement, although the SP to-day was up.

Comments welcome on this share and others.

Apparently there will be some new to-morrow or within a few days.

http://www.bioprogress.com/html/news/news.html

Hi Fred,
I am a long term holder of BBC. It's been a massive success story for me, getting in at 50pps, but its most interesting features are a reliable divi (15pps)and the fact that it always remains fairly quiet till about Aug/Sept followed by a good rise, a level run till the new year, then a shoot followed by a retractment.
This has been predictable for about 3 years now, and looks like it may happen again.
Despite the sector it operates in, it seems to have a management with its head screwed on, and continues merrily plodding away with a steady upward trend, unnoticed by the masses while other builders fall in and out of favour.
I am predicting 500pps by end Sept, and about 540pps by mid january. I think its true worth is more like 600pps, but DYOR.
I said it had been a massive success for me but I get more than my fair share of spectacular losses!!
Alan

I will have look but it would be nice to have the chart with the postings.

Regards

I'm a bit blonde and stupid and don't know how you perform that particular trick!! Computers are still a bit of a black art to me. Sorry. If you can do it please do.
Alan

IT appears I am one foot ahead of you. (just)

If you to the chart page and go to below the last chart and the click where it states to, up pop some page code. High light the code, copy it, and then go to thread and paste the code to your message. Easy after you have found out how to.

Until then a mystery.

Now back to finding a way to extract faulty memory from a lap top.

IT appears I am one foot ahead of you. (just)

If you go to the chart page and then go to below the last chart and the click where it states to, up pops some page code. High light the code, copy it, and then go to thread and paste the code to your message. Easy after you have found out how to.

Until then a mystery.

Now back to finding a way to extract faulty memory from a lap top.

Have a look at Chesnara sub sector Life Asssurance.

Yield approx 8.7%, Peg .17 rolling Peg .7, Normal market size 10K, but doesnt seem employed to often.

Have held since January, wish I had a few more. Could do a SIPP or ISA a lot of good.

Hello Fred, I've also taken a recent small punt in Amstrad. But want to highlight a different company for your TA thread:

DAG - Digital Animation Group. Small Glasgow company specialising in animated characters for mobile phones, and avatars (no, I hadn't heard of them before either). Small market cap (14m), small number of shares in issue (23m), and the chart looks to have bottomed at low 60's after peaking around 120 back in March. Rumours of deal news. Massive spread but there's real potential here - although 'not for widows and orphans' ;o)

Interesting. I have look.

HAd a look.

Poor for going long at moment.

150 an 5 day ROC are down.
Volumes are Vsmall at moment
A/C is down.

Trix is neutral or down but doe show signs of Reversal
Price below Moving average.


GOod sign it seems to have broken down trend but not necessarily so and is still within down channel.

I had a another peep.










I think I would wait a little longer before buying until there is a more deffinite pivot. Has support at about 48.

W/See

IMHO IMHO and god I can be wrong as i am frequently told.



8-)

Hi Fred,

Can you recommend some software for stockpicking via TA? Do you use anything like that? Or ae you like me in that you trawl through your favourites patiently waiting for signals?

Chiva20


I think the easier way is to define type of shares you wish to view, which sector or capitalisation etc and what you are expecting from a trend. This gives you a group of shares to look at.

I use Sharescope Gold with daily updates. Part of the package is a Data Mining facility. With that you can select groups of shares with the criteria you wish and then apply their charting facilities which includes a large number of indicators. I have use it for 5 or more years and find once you have got into it, it is very practical. It also has reasonable Fundamental's page giving PeGs, yields, Turnover etc.

Also has portfolio pages for multiple porfolios. Recalculated after down loads.

Also give daily market news and directors' dealings and shows major holdings.
Cost under 20 a months.

I am very impressed with it, and other than one confrontation on telephone with some Silly B. have generally found them helpful. The programme is being updated on regularly.

For other information and Daily Charts I use Comdirect (Daily Charts) and News pages, though Moneyam's have improved, but Comdirect is flexible and allows editing and porfolios graphs etc. Also use Barclays for information and Ivestors Chronicle's archives. The beauty of Moneyam and ICV is that they post the magazine to you and you can cut and paste etc. out of their archives.

Sharescope also supplies some CDs on basic data mining, and TA (David Jones) I thought them pricey at about 40 each but interesting and wish I had played with them 10 years ago. But I think Pring's book on BAsic TA which has a CD also is perhaps a little better. Individual taste.

Also has a CD on Basic Fundamentals, (Peter Webb of "Shares Magazine") but I haven't read it or seen it yet.

One reason for starting thread was and attempt to get a little chat about TA and how others interpret them.

If you want further information go to http://www.sharescope.co.uk or contact me, by E-mail or this page.

By the way I had squelched you a short while. Can't remember why though.

AMT
OBV going up over the long term and also divergence from the graph

appears to be on 12ema but still has a downtrend to break. See if it tests the 127 area then go from there

DAG
choppy and not liquid ie could you sell this in a hurry?

CCI showing a touch of divergence but momentum is weak



PS I never use the word `might` wrt shares. I only say what I see on the graphs. This applies to all my own share transactions

lower bottoms and bear tail on candle on my own clear charts

Fred that's very helpful thanks very much. I was on the point of opting for sharescope but wanted to hear that from someone more experienced.

I've no idea why you squelched me? Very funny, the only person I thought I'd been squelched by, then un-squelched (repeat daily) is Sequestor and that's mainly because I like many others, attempt to police his need to mingle abuse into some otherwise constructive posts.

Didn't think I'd crossed swords with you before, very odd!

Good luck and thanks again.

for emailpat

TPK

watch the obv and also draw some trend lines on the graph if you are able. I would print and then draw if you haven`t got a charting facility. There is a definite uptrend but The obv would make me cautious. On my chart the weekly candlestick shows support at 1660. So perhaps sit tight for a bit and see what happens

Fred
Good thread, thanks.
Been a buyer of these from 208p and upwards...

Very helpful thread.Thankyou.
I am going to buy RTN and GFRD because their five year charts are very pleasing on the eye and the moving averages look nice and the shares are not expensive.Anyone thinks that I should'nt do this please WARN me now!!!
Ethel

Paste the charts and you should get a few views.

Ethel

with regard to GFRD, they appear to have missed out on the recent sector rises, mainly due to an overhang from Yeoman selling their stake. This appears to be cleared now with the recent increase in volume.

Also tipped up in shares mag:

Housebuilder Galliford Try (GFRD) is expected to announce solid trading at an update to introduce the new chief executive Greg Fitzgerald in early July. Fitzgerald told Shares that the downturn in the housing market has not unduly hit trading.
However, the average sales price for its residential properties has fallen to 200,000 from 228,000, in line with the market. This has been offset by its broad exposure to construction and niche housing in the private, commercial and public markets.
He is also waiting for news from the government that Galliford Try has won 200 million to spend on pilot development schemes for housing associations (HA). Out of an original 175 entrants it has made the shortlist of 20 and has a good chance of winning the deal thanks to its strong presence in social housing. A decision is expected in July and could 'open the floodgates' to more HA contracts.
Shares in the stock have barely moved this month and are trading at just 57.5p, or just 8 times earnings.
Shares says: Good news should be announced at the imminent trading update, providing a boost for the stock.

i bought back in a couple of days ago

GFRD 5 yr chart:

Gfrd 1 yr chart with indicators

Don't know how to...!!Maybe someone else can do it for me,(typical woman)!!
I think that this thread could be a good one for filling us small caps investors in on charting etc.By "etc" I mean,the psychological and physical aspects of investing in the stock market.
We are gambling,whether we like to use that term or not.
We can become addicted to the investors' rooms and the adrenalin rush of it all,when everything is going well.
The bubble effect of this March made a lot of people much dosh,and proved that if your timing is right you can make a fortune in a short time.
But there are some of us who sincerely believe in a company and want it to do well.It is a pleasure to read the results from a really good company that talks about "us" when referring to the shareholders.These companies are rare.
I want to support British innovation and skill,as well,so I am more an investor than a trader,but the line is thin!!
I hope that this thread lasts.
Ethel

Thanks Fundy I was being a little churlish. Looking at the charts I think i would leave buying for a couple of days. For me the the indicators are a little ambivalent at the moment but the long term trend is good and certainly suggests a reasonable buy.
I have look at RTN and here are some charts which certainly look promising are price rate of change is good, haven't looked at fundamentals as I got bogged down in definitions of ROCE, PER and PE and cash flow etc.



Volumes look good a supporting price rise, Trix a MACD seem supportive. Rate of price change is good.

I will try to look at some fundamentals mane. GOOD LUCK but have a look at posting 4 for pasting charts. Even girls can do this. I bet you would be annoyed if I asked you to pour the TeA.




All in MHO.

Fundy I saw GFRD figure this morning had a think. Probably wrong , House prices sales have dropped approx 15% I have a "feeling" and observed that houses don't seem to be moving. The same rented accommodation around the university has been offered for months, less students will be going away to Universities because of grants reductions etc. there will be less need for rented accommodation and therefore more houses on the market an therefore further price drops. 5-15% possibly. How will this effect GFRD profits.
I am thinking or have been told by my wife that we need a different house, she might have said houses. I am getting a little deaf nowadays.

Fred

the drop in average house price at GFRD will be more related to the mix - to the amount of housing association properties they complete vs residential properties more than the state of the market. For a few years, GFRD have been trying to build up their presence in the HA market so the average selling price of these is likely to be 25%-40% below market price for the same property. GFRD are trying to position themselves to take advantage of the fact that the govt has got to provide more (subsidised) affordable housing in the current climate. As for the students situation, this is at odds with the govt view that they want 50% of students to go to university (compared to the current 35%ish)

most house price stats at the moment tend to point to prices being pretty flat at the moment overall, though their are discrepancies within different regions and at the different ends of the market (for example the +1m market is very bullish currently!)

to me, at this set of results of more importance will be to see the continued improvement in the margin performance of the general construction division as the house building arm will continue to produce good profits, mainly on the basis that most of the land was purchased at least 4 yrs ago and most of even longer ago. the key number with regard to the housing division will be how they have managed to replace the land bank that they have utilised and at what cost.

The point about students going to university I accept,but the university they go tgo is more likely to be to the local university where they can live at home because the old form of maintenance grant has be lost and top up fees will make many think again. Like many of my friends we went to local Universities, because of our parents income causing us to have smaller grants and to reduce our costs we settle for living at home. This irritated me so much that I told my four daughters they could go to any University of their choosin ouside a forty mile radius of our home. I really do think it will have effect. But we will see.

no comment needed. Chart speaks

There seems very little volume to support a prolonged breakout!!

Snip-Thanks v/much, that was the word I was looking for-CAUTION ;-)

No one for SEO?

Fred great thread I'm picking up a few tips from opinions here.

fto for the long term maybe?

Fred-good thread and it makes us work a bit;-)

CHESNARA, CSN. I suppose this note should be on a CSN thread. If necessary will copy.
""""
The Company was notified on the 24th June by a letter dated 23rd June 2005 that
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd, a subsidiary of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co, no longer
hold a notifiable interest in the ordinary shares of 5p each in the Company.
"""""


This amounts to about 3.5million shares, BUT , BUT there has been institutional buyin of about 23 million over last few weeks

""""""""""""""
DISCLOSURE OF INTEREST
The company was notified on 13 th June 2005 that UBS AG, acting through UBS
Global Asset Management (Life) Ltd, holds a notifiable interest in 5,168,204
ordinary shares of 5p each in the Company representing 4.94% of the total
shares in issue.
END
"""""""""""""""""


DISCLOSURE OF INTEREST

The company was notified on 15th June by Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein Group
Limited, an indirect subsidiary of Allianz AG, that Allianz AG and its
subsidiaries now hold a notifiable interest in 18,350,341 ordinary shares of 5p
each in the Company, representing 17.545% of the total shares in issue.
Included in this holding is the interest of Veer Palthe Voute NV which is
interested in 18,323,315 shares representing 17.519% of the shares in issue.

**********************

I woud think there may be a little drop back due to hang over of some shares, but I would think the 2 buys make it a reasonably safe profitable Buy, but weight to see price drop + volume if there is any. IMHO BDYOH.


Graphs up the page.

Appended DAG graph of DAG postings. Moneyam's charting has been improved I must explore a little more. Can you insert trend and support lines.

Found out how to draw trends and horizontal lines. This charting package is V V Nice Thank you for providing it.

Fred1new,
What a great thread, I have been interested in TA for many years now and started off with Fairshares Portfolio (subsequently taken over by Updata) I now use Metastock the american charting package with end of day updates from Financial express Prestel (99 pa). Used to take sharescope in the early days but because of travel stopped it. Metastock( a Reuter Company) is a very comprehensive package with many indicators and expert commentary. I have end of day but real time is available if required. My bible is "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" by John J Murphy.
Due to former profession could not trade daily and tend to look on the negative side if the indicators are inconclusive.
At the moment I am in and out of NETeller(NLR) when the indicators say GO.
Will be a regular watcher. SD

Fred1new,
Sorry forgot to say Metastock is at http://www.equis.com SD

Metastock seems a little to expensive for somebody as poverty stricken as me. But may have a further look.

Here is another share which hads been a little dormant for a while but seems to be breaking out again with slowly increasing volume and with good support at about 27p.
There are two threads for further info with some detailed fundamental examination.

Think it will do well once again hoping for 40-45p Bought numerous times and also added another tranche earlier to-day.




Before purchasing have a look at the other threads and DYOH.

i wondered how long it would take you to get an RTD chart on the thread Fred :-)

heres another one with strong fundies and a nice long term chart with plenty more upside imho dyor nag etc etc

Fundy I thought you were a fundamentilist at heart.

Fred

as you well know - i am!!!

Doesnt stop me recognizing a nice chart on a share i hold that also happens to have cracking fundies.

In all seriousness i am slowly trying to learn a bit more about TA - you can never have too many tricks in your box!!! I always base my decisions on the fundies, but knowing the chart backs it up or helps with the entry point cant be bad

Fred1new,
Good article in IC this week on TA good run down on many packages. SD

This is to annoy Dill.

The charts are enlarged slightly to be able to view candles more clearly.

I have been a holder of this share for to long, my average hold price is about 80p now, having caught a falling knife once or twice too often.

Think the overall outlook for company is good, but difficult to separate fact from fiction.

I think with the replacement of Non Exec chairman, changes in management, recent strategic and financial review and Money in the kitty there will be a recovery, which is possibly beginning to show in TA. I would think it is one to watch over the next few weeks, if the new uptrend is confirmed it could be a reasonable buy. But let the volumes and other punters confirm it first.

There are a fair number of institutional holders.

DYOH DYOH DYOH





Today a Doji was formed. This shows indecision about the direction of the market and it represents a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.

The above was pinched from British Bulls page for 26/6/2005
For those newly interested in Candles worth a look, has been posted on other threads before http://www.britishbulls.com


Any views or feedback appreciated.

Links for information which looks promising


http://www.bioprogress.com/html/news/archive/09-11-04.html
http://www.fmcbiopolymer.com/Biopolymer/V2/BIONewsDetail/0,1418,3010,00.html

Fred1new,
Smashing charts. Would be interested to learn how to draw trend lines on these charts because if you draw a trend line from the high in October you will see there has been no breakout yet. In fact many of my Metastock indicators suggest you should enter a short position this morning on open. Personaly would not enter long at this time as 21 day RSI is below 50 which indicates a sale according to American guru Chris Manning (I attended his 3 day seminar some time ago and monitored his method for a considerable time discovering he was right most of the time). Hope this interest you. SD

Seadog, So would I. I tend to use Sharescope for perusing charts and indicators as 1) I know it (even if i don't understand it) 2) also it is easy to draw trend lines etc. and add information to charts.
One of the problems I find starts with whether you use log scales which seems sensible to me, but the graphs can change dramatically depending on what scaling is used. Another is whether you use closing or mid prices etc. This again can change trends considerably. I tend to look at both for information.
As far as Bprg is concerned I agree to you, but perusing the Charts and indicators again I would not go short and with the recent news update would expect it to rise over the next few days. We will see, I am continuing to hold.

Fred1new,
I use closing prices and linear all the time so its interesting and I will try mid and opening prices as well. I also use weekly charts for long term trends. I see they are up this morning.

Seadog, I am not sure about your package , but I sometimes like using bars for drawing trends and channels. I can use the extremes of the days tradings and sometimes see a pattern which may be useful. Depending on way the trend is going. PerhapsI read to-much into them but think I am improving a little, but have to control my vivid imagination sometimes. Also like using the daily extremes for fixing stop losses. But I need a lot more discipline.

I also look longterm at weekly and monthly candle charts, usually without drawing any useful conclusions as yet.

Charts as fascinating, but still looking for the X spot.

Another one for the interested. I bought first 6/5/99 and sold to buy again 5/9/02 and 4/6/05 It has been a long haul with not much to show but now seems to be picking up and I expect good returns.

I have place multiple charts showing up trend etc over the years and months, the last does seem a decisive break out. Interested in opinions neg. and positive

I think this is a runner.

I think the SP movement over last week id based on
Vislink says Link Research unit wins 1st major contract for 1.8 mln usdAFX
LONDON (AFX) - Vislink PLC said that its subsidiary Link Research Ltd has been awarded its first major contract for 1.8 mln usd, to supply wireless camera systems in the US.Ian Scott-Gall, chief executive of Vislink, said: 'This contract underlines the opportunities in the US market for Link.'
And this:
AFX News Feed
Wednesday, 25/05/05, 12:32
Vislink says trading in line, 'significantly ahead' of yr ago

LONDON (AFX) - Vislink PLC said it made a promising start to the year, with trading in line with expectations and "significantly ahead" of the previous year. "The order inflow has been particularly good for MRC in the domestic US markets and for Hernis in its marine safety market," chief executive Ian Scott-Gall said at the company's annual general meeting. Vislink, which supplies microwave radio and satellite transmission products for the broadcast and security markets, said it is encouraged by the current level of trading. The UK business is now seeing stronger international demand although the market has remained competitive, it said. A large contract in Venezuela is expected to benefit the second half with completion in the fourth quarter. It also said MRC was awarded an order worth more than 4 mln usd for its TSSR US military radios. Link Research Ltd, which was acquired in February, has made a good start as has Hernis. Orders and operating profits at Hernis are in line with expectations. Hernis has seen growth in its Far East markets with significant orders for both marine and offshore oil and gas projects, Vislink said.


BDYOH

For further info have a look at VISLINK STRONG RISER 2005 (VLK) thread

now known as

`The Ramping Thread`

pity

however as this is/was a TA thread

watch the empty candle and the bearish stalk today then look for a possible test of 30/32 and observe what happens in that area ie bounce or failure

Snip I see what you mean, I would take it as a period of indecision at 30.5p which hopefully would form a support line. But I think the movement is due to news of deal and perhaps the underlying tip :-

We will see!!! One problem is small Market size.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/printFriendly/0,,1-38-1672965,00.html

There must be some others out there drooling over charts with good or bad points.

If you are worried about spoiling your buys or sells. Post after your action.

Hope some here gained from DAG chart posted here around a week or so ago. Here's another one:

Proteome Sciences (PRM). Biotech (yes that dreadful word, but read on), with low cashburn, focusing on proteomics to provide early diagnosis of disease in eg stroke, screening of blood donations for vCJD, BSE live test in cattle, Alzheimer's etc. CEO Chris Pearce has repeatedly flagged that license deals with upfronts, milestones and royalties are expected from three main parts of the business 'by middle part of 2005'. Two-year chart:

Snip were you refering to The Vislink or this thread as the ramping thread? If the latter it wasn't started off with this intention. I hoped for feed back n interpretation with information leading to the formation of opinion, either positive or negative.

Anyway Vislink is up again at approx 37p.


BlueMango will try and have a look at Proteome charts and TA a little later. First glance look prmising, but in the middle of making a radish soup and Cherry Brandy and Cherries Bread and Butter pudding, to go with a Guinea Fowl, Cream and Leek casserole.

All quite slimming.

Had a quick loook. Overall the 6mth trend seems intact up to 99p to-day. Had a look some TA not sure but seems a little weakening. Trouble with these companies is lack of fundamentals. Haven't scanned Recent News. Perhaps Snip will offer his views.

Many thanks Fred. Like the sound of the casserole, and my wife says it sounds like you're fond of cherries (she is too) and when can we come for dinner? ;o)

On more boring topics, Proteome has been a bit lacking on recent news but Chris Pearce CEO is reported to be very upbeat and relaxed about current progress.

The casserole was good but I think i would use chicken thighs next time as they are more succulent. Cherries bread and butter pud not to bad, better with Maple syrup and Brioche. Radish soup interesting especially with dollop of cream. Similar to Spinach soup.

Right now the important bit is out of the way. Any body use trends and channels for setting up stop losses?

Those who use trend reversals for B&Selling. what parameters do they set?

What are the most useful indicators and why?

yes Fred. I use a % stop loss set within a channel. The % can vary depending on the height of the channel. Similar to swing trading
I use indicators only as a signaling tool in a minor capacity. I mainly use support/resistance and experience of candle charting and I am always mindful of the sheep/herd mentality when I analyse my charts. By the way volume is a huge indicator for me

Fred

Sometimes TA doesn't do quite what you expect it to do. Posted this chart and comments on another thread on Friday. From my analysis on Friday everything looked quite rosy and then today, bam, a profits warning and the SP drops 111p. Would be interested if your TA would have supported mine on Friday?

pth




However, I do like this chart for the following reasons:

1. The SP is in a near perfect uptrend since August last year and following recent activity there is no reason to think that this will not continue.

2. During June the SP formed a double bottom and has bounced. (Double bottom is a reversal pattern after a downtrend). What is improtant about this bounce is the accompanying increase in volume.

3. Following today's rise the SP has achieved a chart breakout, again on volume. By which I mean breaking above the resistance of 1750 established in March (4 times) and May. You may wish to be cautious and wait until the 1800 to confirm this breakout.

4. Moving Averages are all in the right order. RSI looks like it has some legs left.

5. MACD looks good: Moving average crossover & centre line crossover.

Not sure why you have set a target of 22. looking at the chart, the next hurdle should be the resistance at 19, whic is where I would set my target.

Pholden
I would agree with you.

5year graph looks good trend as you say intact.

MACD look good

Trix Looks good (I use a short term, although it is supposed to be long term indicator.)


RSI (15 day) is a touch above 70



Looking back over the volumes for two to three years the volumes increase with the price were a little small.

BUT BUT BUT
Travis Perkins moderates FY expectations as trading remains challenging UPDATEAFX
(Adds further comment from company)LONDON (AFX) - Travis Perkins PLC, the builders' merchant and DIY retailer, said trading is set to remain challenging for the rest of 2005 and it has therefore 'moderated' its expectations for the year.In a trading statement, Travis Perkins said group turnover for the first six months, including the effect of the February acquisition of Wickes, was up by 41 pct, but on a like-for-like basis sales were 0.5 pct lower.'We expect the trading environment for the remainder of 2005 to continue to be challenging,' the group said in a trading statement. 'Whilst we have taken prompt action to reduce costs this will not fully offset the impact of the current trading environment, and our expectations have been moderated accordingly.'But the group said progress on the integration of Wickes is proceeding ahead of schedule.At Wickes, total sales for the 26-week period to June 26 were down by 1.7 pct, and 4.9 pct lower on a like-for-like basis, Travis Perkins said.Home delivered showroom sales, which account for around 16 pct of Wickes total turnover, fell by 8.4 pct like-for-like as consumers reined in their spending.Travis Perkins said although the DIY market is showing signs of recovery, this improvement has been patchy and slower than expected.
However from yesterdays Sunday Times by john Whapples
************
Travis Perkins THE nearer you get to the consumer the tougher business is. That's likely to be the message tomorrow from Travis Perkins, the 2.1 billion builders merchant, when it gives a pre-close trading statement Travis, through its ownership of Wickes, is not immune to the high-street chill. But it is not as exposed as a pure DIY operator like B&Q, and Travis's core heavy- side business, which services the jobbing builder, is holding up well.
Trading in the first half of the year has been tough and if it continues, the group will miss full-year profit forecasts of f260m, but only by a'whisker. Investors will be encouraged by an update on the 135m of savings being made from the Wickes deal. These are running slightly ahead of expectation and other areas to save costs have been identified.
The shares have fallen 10% since February, which is in line with its peers. If interest rates are cut, this will boost the housing and DIY market.-

*************************

I am relatively new to TA (Started with scepticism about three years ago, and Still stumbling but learning). But what I am building into my check list before buying (or selling) on a trend is to check when an announcement is going to be announce (like a trading update) and then if I am in profit consider dumping and re-buying if info is good.
The only problem I can never find the checklist when I feel like buying.

One thing I do pay attention to before buying is the rate of change or speed of overall trend over a short period 2months + and extend it over the year. (percentage change) I suppose it would be fairer to shove the other shares I am looking at on the same chart and compare.

Also I am tending to use log scale prices.

Snip I utilise you method with channels, but I am stupid and only too often over rule my previous decisions. Usually at a price.

Fred

GFRD starting to pick up

Fundy,
The volumes look down for the last couple of days, but if they pick up it would look promising. The percentage rate of change ove the last 6mths is about 12%, but I think that looks like picking up. If the projected PEGs are "correct" it should do.

Fred

Interesting thing about the TPK chart and my commensts was the observation that it may be prudent to await confirmation of the breakout above previous reistance at the 1750 level. I would have used 3% from 1750 and therefore would have waited until the 1800 level was reached before taking a position. The 3% rule would have saved my skin!!

pth

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This has begun to outperform the Aerospace and defence sector.

This is doing well compared to the All share though not so well compared to the Oil & Gas sector but this looks set to change.

This was one of the shares of the year last year hitting 220 retracing in waves to 75p.
I caught the knife a little to high but with to-days info things look up as does the TA with formation of recent trend reversal.

Volume appears to be going with price rise and momentum and ROC etc, look promising. It has supportat 70p

I think it is worth keeping an eye on and possibly a buy, but how long the uptrend will last I havent a clue.

Alizyme PLC
07 July 2005


For Immediate Release 7 July 2005


ALIZYME REACHES AGREEMENT WITH FDA

FOR RENZAPRIDE PHASE III CLINICAL TRIAL


Cambridge UK, 7 July 2005: Alizyme plc (LSE:AZM) announces that it has reached agreement with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) under the Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) procedure for the design of a pivotal Phase III clinical trial for renzapride in constipation-predominant irritable bowel syndrome (c-IBS) in the US.

The trial will be a multi-centre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel group, pivotal, efficacy study. The trial will involve up to 1,700 women with c-IBS being treated over a 12-week period. Patients' response will be determined by each patient, via weekly self-assessments of their IBS symptoms.
The primary endpoint will be to evaluate whether daily doses of renzapride, taken either as 4 mg once daily or 2 mg twice daily, are clinically and statistically significantly more effective than placebo in providing overall symptomatic relief of c-IBS in women between 18 and 65 years of age. Secondary endpoints include adequate relief of abdominal pain/discomfort and of bowel problems.

It is expected that patient recruitment will commence in Q4 2005 and, assuming anticipated recruitment timelines are met, Alizyme would expect results to be available in the first half of 2007.

Commenting, Dr Richard Palmer, Chief Executive Officer, said:

'We are extremely pleased to have reached agreement with the FDA, following extensive discussions, for this pivotal Phase III clinical trial of ren zapride in the US. This is a major achievement for both renzapride and the Company as it takes a second product from our portfolio into Phase III clinical development.'



Previous news



AFX News Feed
Thursday, 30/06/05, 16:24
Alizyme knows no reason for share movement, says finances strong

LONDON (AFX) - Alizyme PLC, the UK-based speciality biopharmaceutical development company, said it has noted the recent movement in its share price, adding it knows no reason for this. The company said following a 30 mln stg fundraising last April, it has sufficient funds to carry forward all its development programmes and for operations into 2008, during which time it expects to have made "significant progress in commercialising its portfolio." "Alizyme anticipates strong news flow later this year generated by progress in its product pipeline," it said. "Alizyme's late stage portfolio of four clinical products continues to progress according to plan," said CEO Dr Richard Palmer. "We are also in our strongest ever financial position and expect to report on significant progress in our product pipeline during 2005."




Comments appreciated.

Was this the news AZM chart was waiting for. Seems to be pivoting with definite uptrend forming.

Alizyme ready to start next trial of diabetic weight loss drugAFX
LONDON (AFX) - Alizyme PLC said it has completed recruiting patients for the second Phase II trial of its treatment for causing weight loss in obese diabetics, cetilistat.Initial results are due around the middle of December.The trial compares three doses of cetilistat with placebo and with orlistat, Roche AG's marketed treatment which brings in annual sales of around 500 mln usd.'The headline results, expected later this year, will mark the completion of Phase II development of cetilistat and confirm its product profile and competitive position in anticipation of its entry into Phase III development in 2006,' chief executive Dr Richard Palmer said in a statement.Alizyme shares close at 92.75 pence yesterday, valuing the group at 165 mln stg.amy.brown@afxnews.comab/bam

this is a speculative punt on a small oil and gas exploration Co. formed out of the old cash shell left over when Gold Mines of Sardinia merged with a canadian Co to form Medoro Resources. Medoro inherited the land in Sardinia, containing inferred millions of ounces of gold, but, for reasons unknown, dropped like a stone. Meanwhile CHP has quadrupled on speculation of exploration in land owned in Paraguay and more recently, it has gone up a gear in anticipation of permits to explore for oil in Columbia, would appear to be a dangerous part of the World! The chart looks good to me but this is a mining exploration Co so I suppose could also drop like a stone with any bad or no news. Interestingly an EGM is planned for 18.7.05, to authorise fundraising by way of share issue, should permits be granted in Colombia.
Apologies now if graph doesn't appear

The charts at first glance look impressive, but volume down to-day. and short MACDs not as good as I would like. Many of indicators seemed positive though. Also with the story you give I think I will sit this one out. To many "ifs" for me.

Interesting pennant formation on recent Proteome Sciences (PRM) chart:

Havent check it out very much but, SP growth about 21% over 3/12 makes it interesting.

Like to see volume a little more established.

Trix looks a bit sad.

I see your pennant formation, but not sure how reliable it is.

Would prefer for myself to see which way the break is. But it should be up.

I have included a few more picrtures.

Havent ckecked the news, dates or Fundies.

To tired at the moment pondering the simplicities if network connections.

Many thanks Fred.

Brief background on news, dates, funds etc for Proteome Sciences:

Enough cash until around Q2 2007 assuming no new revenues, following a Placing earlier this year funded by Fidelity. HOA announced 1st April for significant deal on their TMT (proteomics analysis) technology including upfronts milestones and possibly royalties, deal completion expected soon. Further deals on biomarker licencing expected in remaining part of this year, including stroke diagnosis by blood test (lab screening). Annual results were announced in June, consistent cashburn at around 4m with no plans to significantly increase expenditure. Still a 'blue-sky' company though, with all the inherent risks attached - but one of the safer ones in my view, due to no need for expensive and lengthy drug trials (if the word 'safe' can ever be realistically applied to a biotech investment!)

Thanks I will put it on my Watch and have a look at the weekend.

Must admit I am very heavy into SEO and RTD at the moment. Unless somebody drops the Hbomb to-morrow after a miserabble week or so recovering very nicely.

I have to admit I m beginning to get jumpy about companies not making a profit/

I feel I have supported them for long enough. But I do get hooked on ideas still.

blue mango,

thought you might like to see this from ICV sometime ago:
10 June 2005

PROTEOME SCIENCES (PRM)




In the absence of positive newsflow about licensing agreements, Proteome has had a bumpy ride recently. The shares did enjoy a bounce a couple of months ago on news that the company was moving towards signing a licensing deal for the reagents it has developed to help the diagnosis and treatment of disease. Unfortunately, though, there was no firm update on the deal with these results, although an announcement is expected in the next few weeks.

No longer just a scientific research company, Proteome now has a whole range of products and services for use in diagnosis and treatment of diseases such as cancer, strokes, Alzheimer's and CJD. And, in collaboration with Intronn of the US, Proteome is also developing liver-screening products. This will tap into the huge cholesterol-drugs market - worth $24bn a year in the US alone. Proteome expects a rising tide of milestone and royalty payments this year. Cash resources of more than 7m should help meet annual cash-burn needs, currently running at 3.6m, until income flow picks up.


Subject: Production & sales stats.
Date: Thu 11th Aug 2005 16:47:20
Country: United Kingdom
Industry: Health care
Company: Proteome Sciences PLC


Proteome Sciences says 'satisfactory' progress in Tandem Mass Tags license deal

LONDON (AFX) - Proteome Sciences PLC said the process of concluding a licence agreement for its Tandem Mass Tags is continuing satisfactorily, and that a further announcement will be made when the deal is formally concluded.


The chart is beginning to be promising.

Don't hold it as I have all my pennies in RTD and SEO.

Morning Fred

Not sure where I've been over the summer but I have only just discovered your thread. (Too busy watching the lads getting stuck into the Aussies). As an ex-physicist I like the idea of trying to analyse price movements from graphs and spot trends. Like many folks here I am relatively new to investing (2yr) but have enjoyed some success with long term trends such as TPT. Pity that trend is over. It was much better than putting your money in the bank!
Most of my cash at present is in SEO,NTL and RTD, all of which look as if they might be pushing upwards soon.
Have a little spare cash so will be watching your thread carefully for new investment opportunities.

Keep up the good work

B2B

PS There is an excellent book by Jack D Schwager cvalled Getting started in Technical Analyisis published by John Wiley (approx 13)

B2B,


Like you I have a large holdings in RTD 25%, SEO 20%, and surprisingly BRW 14.6%, BPRG 6.8%, CSN 6.3% and VLK 5.8%, DNX,AZM and a few smaller holdings.

Got out of TPT sometime ago

The charts of the first RTD and SEO to me are less than impressive at the moment, but I think and hope will improve over next 2-6 weeks. I think my holdings of these are based on past record and I hope Fundamentals, we will see. ( I wish I had sold like some cleverer (Bs) a little while ago and then had courage to rebuy on their retracement, but I hope that I have time to live and learn.)

If you are interested in trends have a look at BRW and CSN, DNX, VLK the rate of growths are good and Fundamentals seem OK. But wouldnt buy CSN for a week or two, it seems to be retracing to previous support line. Not sure.

BPRG , AZM, I think have broken out and are in uptrend again.

If you havent got a software package for portfolio management, try a trial period of Sharescope Gold.

Down loads end of the day data, and I think its Fundamentals, Data mining and Charting features are extremely good. I only wish I had started using the Data mining feature 10years ago.

The datamining facility allows you to scan the market for fast growth in SPs over different time scales, pick the capitalization, yields, EPs PEGS etc. ectc.

You can automatically chart your choice superimposed other shares if you wish. The charting tools allow you to measure rate of change of the trends.

It has numerous indicators etc.

Sharescope is very powerful, reasonably priced and enables regular and easy monitoring of holdings.

If you are interested in Trend following and having a look at indicators try
Technical Analysis for Dummies by Barbara Rockefeller. One of the best books I have read on TA. I have read it 3-4 times and found it contains a lot of down to earth information.
Another book is Martin Prings Introduction to TA. ( + CD and book).

Give me a bell if you want more info, but I am off to France for 3weeks after Friday.

BUT DYOH.

By the way a trend was good up to yesterday and no guarantee to the future, as I know only to well. 8-(

Hi Fred

Forgot to mention SHI. Not going to make you a millionaire over night but very good steady growth over the long term. Sorry unable to add charts still learning.

Cheers

B2B

Had a quick look at SHI, trend over last 3mths is about 87% annually. VG. year trend about 62% VG. PEGs are dropping, Forecasted profits for this year are good, but growth suggested to be slowing. One problem I see, is or can't see what is going to happen in the building trade. I think it is going to slow, (every body will now jump on me.) If you hold it, run a 5% trailing stop loss and if it triggers it sell and take your profits. Interims 14/9/2005.
Could be wrong, my kids inform me I am often.

PS. If you want to paste a chart in MoneyAM, Go to charts, hit custom charts, enter epic, Mess about for a few moments until you have what you want. Hit "do you want to paste" copy code and paste code to post.


Have a good evening. It is a nice chart.

This looks like it is on a winning streak.

Fundamentals seem OK a number of recent deals appear to improved its future earnings. NMS 2OOO shares. SPread about .5% PEG about .75.

DYOH



Here is another interesting company which I have bought to-day. Solid looking Fundamentals, should do well but DYOH.