Not a very nice topic but It could be very realistic. Just wanted to know If anyone had any ideas on which BIO companys and others could benefit from this if indeed we get the blessed germ in this Country.

Acambis and Biotrace perhaphs???????????????????????.

Whats Your thoughts?????????????????????????

cheers GF.

Why them 2 ???

Its easier to pick companies that will suffer.

Never thought of that you negative genious. Who would then , virtually every one.?.

cheers Gf.

Yep :-)

Night mate.

Cheers Dil. Back on track any ideas on Bios?.

cheers GF.

Chemists and tissue manufacturers. Linen providers. Blimey Im gettting warped here. Its Dils fault.

Back to BIOS, any ideas.

cheers GF.

Hi GF,
The drug used in the treatment is called tarniflu, but I can't find out who manufactures it, as they would be the obvious beneficiaries.
Alan

Just another thought. Isolation is the only effect way to deal with this, in hospital. This is a labour intensive way to be treated by an NHS that is short of nurses anyway, so perhaps a PLC that deals in temp-nurse supply would also do well. They probably do anyway during the winter months, so it may be a good short term play if one exists.
Alan

PRB Pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong appear to be the leaders in developing effective measures against bird flu, but I don't think they are listed.
Alan

Well, if it gets as bad as some say then it could be good news for listed funeral directors:

dignity plc?

Bird incinerators manufactures would definitely benefit.

What about bernard Matthews and His Chicken Drummers. For chicken lovers everywhere, its prbably the only product you can get garaunteed not to contain any chicken. BOOTIFUL

Gravediggers would benifit.

Tarniflue is made by Roche I believe Hewitt.

Thanks Dil.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/BUSINESS/Roche-Glaxo-face-fights-over-flu-drugs/2005/10/14/1128796674898.html

mentions the Swiss Roche and US-based Gilead Sciences - responsible for Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) - orally taken.
and Glaxo and Australian Biota - responsible for Relenza (zanamivir) - inhaled.

Biota's details on the ASX (have been in it since Aus$0.75 - tis now Aus$2.22);
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/CompanyInfoSearchResults.jsp?searchBy=asxCode&allinfo=&asxCode=bta
Was a speculative plunge for me - I had only got into it due to an article mentioning a favorable conclusion to Biota's court case against Glaxo; could potentially add up to a couple of $$ to the sp (which at the time was somewhere in the 50c range).


I understand that a lot of governmental stockpiling of Tamiflu (first), and then Relenza has been occurring. Both are for flu, but tis unkown (i think) as to whether it would be good enough to in fact combat the bird flu.......
CSL and Imugene (Australia), are also working on bird flu vaccine, but it all seems to have a long timeline to production - although i think that CSL are working with a UN health organisation in order to fasttrack something.

NOt sure about the UK and US listed companies......

Alan, is the drug you refer to not actually called Tamiflu which is indeed made by Roche as Dil points out.

http://www.rocheusa.com/products/tamiflu/

http://www.tamiflu.com/

Roche shares are traded on the Swiss exchange.

http://www.roche.com/home/investors/inv_share.htm

Tamiflu & Relenza are the only flu treatments that have some cover for the (H5N1 strain (BIRD FLU)) on the market at about 60 per course per person.
If you can get any, as every supplier I have tried has sold out.
this virus is still in birds and has not yet gone human to human, when and if it dose the strain must change slightly, then these treatments may not work !

Maybe Energy Tech. (ETQ) They could do with something to help them. If avian flu is an airborne pathogen (realise the absurdity of that!) ie once it has left a bird, then ETQ's suvair nightingale AC equipment would help considerably. Currently ETQ are a disaster area although now 50% underpinned by a subsid. of Tchenquiz family, so probably not the basket case that they would otherwise be. Don't expect to see any PR from the company promoting their products - their PR cons. are rubbish/non-existant!!

Indian drugmaker to make generic version of Tamiflu - report
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - Indian pharmaceutical manufacturer Cipla plans to produce a generic version of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu to counter a feared bird flu pandemic, the Financial Times reported quoting a company official.

'The whole world needs it and there is a tremendous shortage,' Cipla's joint managing director Amar Lulla told the paper, brushing off the potential threat of legal action from Tamiflu's maker Roche.

'We will sell it in many countries where there are no patents,' notably in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and Asia,' Lulla said. 'We are not going into markets where there are valid patients,' such as Europe and the United States.

Cipla would sell its own version of oseltamivir, the generic name for Tamiflu, at a 'humanitarian' price below that of the Roche product, Lulla said, though he declined to give a figure.

Cipla, India's third largest drugs producer, also makes cheap generic versions of drugs to combat the AIDS virus.

I looked this up earlier, this would seem most up to date, can anyone tell me where the company is listed, the company is called "Sanofi pasteur"


http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8009&feedId=online-news_rss20

sanofi pasteur is a subsiduary of the parent company sanofi-aventis, listed on the Euronext (code ISIN FR0000120578) and NYSE (EPIC SNY)

Bioprogress may well benefit, the current two piece Tamiflu capsules leave it wide open to counterfieting; especially with the capsules selling for up to 9 each on the internet. The Bioprogress Nrobe system would solve this overnight.

Impossible to recreate with added barcoding i'll hazard that roche will be knocking on the door of FMC to get hold of a machine very soon.

http://www.fmcmagenta.com/

lol , in your dreams shammy

Human flu pandemic 'inevitable' in Britain, chief medical officer says
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - The deadly avian influenza virus found in Turkey and Romania is bound to combine with a human variety at some point and cause a pandemic that would kill around 50,000 people in Britain, the country's chief medical officer said.

'The significance of it isn't that there will be a pandemic of bird flu itself, the significance of it is that at some point, and we go by the lessons of history, the bird flu virus will combine with a human flu virus and then it will become easily transmissible,' Liam Donaldson told BBC television.

'Why is that inevitable? Well because it has happened before.'

On Saturday the presence of the deadly H5N1 virus bird flu was confirmed in Romania, only two days after it was found in Turkey.

Donaldson said that a normal winter flu killed more than 12,000 people in Britain every year.

'But if we had a pandemic, the problem would be that our existing vaccines don't work against it, we would have to develop a new vaccine, and people don't have natural immunity because it hasn't been around before.

'So the estimate we are working on in the number of deaths is around 50,000 excess deaths from flu. But it could be a lot higher than that, it very much depends whether this mutated strain is a mild one or a more serious one.'

Donaldson however said that the pandemic may not arrive this winter.

No mention of HCEG who claim that their product Ebiox kills Avian Bird Flu on contact surfaces.It is not a drug to be administered but the NHS should stockpile Ebiox sprays and wipes etc.to use in hospitals and clinics.The army should buy these products too,as soldiers would be called out to collect bodies if the funerary system became overburdened.and would need to spray contaminated chicken factories too.
Biodegradable coffins and bodybags...masks and rubber gloves...vegetarian versions of chicken dishes..would sell in the event of an outbreak in western europe.
As all social contact would break down,most people would stay at home and watch television or gamble on the internet.More alcohol would be consumed at home.Large supermarkets would suffer more than small,local shops.Cigarette and anti-depression drugs consumption would increase.
The number of available nurses would decrease as with schools and creches closed,mothers would have to stay at home to mind their children.
At the moment there is no cure for Avian Flu,fifty percent of people who have it will die....pretty horrible scenario. Stockmarkets would be very vulnerable in the event of a pandemic.
Any investing in specific firms having relevance to such a disaster would be purely speculative and buoyed by a sense of doom laden hysteria.
In theory,we should get a real sense of the danger next spring when wild birds start migrating back from Africa to northern lands.As it is,the British government left it a bit late to order their Tamiflu tabs from Roche and do not have enough to protect most of the population.Tamiflu must be administered within 48 hrs of symptoms appearing,so there will be complete chaos in surgeries and hospitals as people think that they are infected with the killer flu.
What a world to live in.
LOL Ethel
On the same theme,biodegradable coffins which are easy to store and transport would sell.Also masks and rubber gloves.

Blimey Ethel, im moving into the bunker.

cheers GF.

HCEG should do well out of this.

British Airports and Airlines will crash unless they have air sanitised cabins - will ETQ benefit or will pigs fly

Good point legins.

cheers GF.

Have a look at the small article on page six of this week's edition of "MoneyWeek".

Avian Flu is not a new thing - it has been around in one form or other since there have been birds. It has not mutated to a form that has harmed humans in the last million years - so why do we think it will now? To date only 60 people have died, in areas where their hygiene standards are questionable to say the least.

Remember SARS. Weren't we going to have a pandemic from that and all die in our thousands?

I say invest in salt. Large pinches will be required everywhere. :-)

LOL

HCEG (Healthcare enterprises) could benefit with its Ebiox products.

Legins, ETQ are apparently developing a retrofit in-line suvair unit which will be available in 2006. Some airlines rejected the idea of putting nightingales in their planes on the grounds of wight. One famous airline operator apparently decided he'd rather have video screens in the back of headrests than cleaner microbe free air. He might have to rethink that one. Anyway they could be made of titanium.

It never surprises me to see how the Masses are so easily led.

Talk about the Emperors clothes.

...Large Pinches of Salt just about sums It up as StarFrog say's. :-)

Agree Stan. But the facts don't come in to it when working out what the general public want. The millenium bug didn't exist, in truth, and no-one was at risk from it, but many computer companies made a mint from it.
Avian flu is almost certainly a media scare story, but that will not stop the public demanding to know what precautions industry and government have taken, so they must take some. the question is, who will benefit?
Alan

No Idear Alan, as my Share picking strategy does not cover these type of hype stories.

Undertakers should do well------ if they survive!

LOL Fred.

HCEG looks so far to be the best investment (for UK investors) ETQ interesting aswell, anymore thoughts????????.

Stans right these can be hype stories but lets not forget the early bird syndrome ETC, ETC. I remember when ETQ whent through the roof only a few year back.

cheers GF.

Ps any way theres nowt else to discuss on rotten days like today. Maybe we should have a board quiz?.

StarFrog is right, I am sure. The SARS fiasco suggests that. And remember the Millenium Bug that was going to cause planes to fall out of the sky? And look at all those millions dying again from smallpox!! And the anthrax attacks that were likely to paralyse the USA.

We're all doomed, I tell ye! All doomed!

On a serious note. I normally steer well clear of anything that the British Government has a hand in - especially Railtrack, PFIs and drugs. Look at Glaxo - forced by our government to give away millions of pounds worth of drugs to 'Third World' countries. If there is a Bird Flu pandemic and any British firm has a counter-measure I am sure they will not be allowed to make much of a profit from it. And if they have anything that the National Health Service requires they will either be forced to sell it cheaply, or the NHS will be forced to do without it. And that includes Bird Flu jabs.

We don't like making firms profits in the UK out of people's suffering. A good example is Camelot - they set up an incredible nationwide lottery system which worked almost faultlessly from Day One, and they have been criticised for making too much money from it - we do not like winners!!! I fully expect companies like Dignity to soon be criticised for making a profit from death. Honestly! Another example is Patientline - operating a good, novel system which one has the OPTION of using, and now being investigated for possibly making too much money. This is no longer a true Capitalist society. Get used to it.

edit. I hold HCEG.

gf,

Just taken a look at those two co's. ETQ...........OUCH!!! -Put it on my watchlist anyway.

HCEG looks good though. -Tempted there.

Tristel (recent float) went up 3p to 53p today.
They specialize in infection control in hospitals.
Worth a look ??

http://www4.wave.co.nz/~jollyroger/pandemic/pandemic.htm

cheers GF.

ADVFN has very good info in HCEG worth a visit. Thanks to Intek

Stringy, When I mentioned ETQ as a possible beneficiary it did come with a warning; the current mgt. do not have a great track record for capitalising on good ideas. Although I remain a shareholder I do so only because the co. is underpinned to an extent by the Thchenquiz family trust (Triandra) and in the hope that they would do something with the co. rather than let it go bust if only to protect their investment. It's a real long odds one, but then at its current sp it isn't even option money if you buy into it not being allowed to go bust by its current backers.

Thanks sharesure.

Worth me keeping an eye on anyway so I will keep ETQ on my watchlist.

Hope your luck turns with that one.

One Turkey In Greece, and now one parrot In quarantine In this country!

....Get your money on one of the tabloids, they must be making a bomb -)

I remember when people thought that MAD COW disease wouldnt get a hold here a few years back. The rest is history.

cheers GF.

Yep it is ,i married one..

Actually ,i didn't,,, i found out she'd been eating too much meat before i got to the church,,another one of my lucky escapes ..

....A budgie In Barnsley has just fell off his perch -)

I would do a short on the NHS....

Radio 4 right now! on Bird Flu.

Well Stan , its a lot more serious than you thought isnt it?.

cheers GF.

No It Is not GF.

It's been hyped up by the media and nothing more.

I thought It was a very well balanced programme and If you did miss It and are Interested In the subject you can listen again for the next 7 days on the net by going onto the BBC Radio website and get a link from there.

Tests show bird flu is H5N1 virus (Suffolk)

"The European Commission says tests have confirmed that the avian flu which killed 2,600 turkeys at a Suffolk farm is the H5N1 virus."

Baked spuds for next Christmas dinner then.

Never mind Bernard you have had a good run.

Announced last June; when people realise could bring a turnaround in share price. eps c4p last time so low p/e and divvy as well. Solid recent trading update.

BXP:
Beximco Pharmaceuticals Limited (the 'Company'), the Bangladeshi pharmaceuticals
company which listed on AIM last year, today announces that it has launched
Oseflu in Myanmar for the prevention and treatment of human cases of avian
influenza (H5N1) causing bird flu.

Myanmar, which neighbours Bangladesh and has a population of over 42 million,
confirmed its first case of avian flu in March 2006. The Company will soon be
exporting approximately 2,000 doses of the drug to Myanmar to help combat
reported outbreaks of avian flu throughout the country.

The Company is also in the process of registering Oseflu in other countries
affected by avian flu.

Commenting on the product launch Nazmul Hassan, Chief Executive of Beximco
Pharmaceuticals, said:

'Avian flu is clearly a major disease threat in developing countries such as
Myanmar and we are pleased today to be able to supply Oseflu to combat this
threat. We shall be registering Oseflu in other countries in the near future to
try and limit the spread of this disease.'

Yep Hawick, I was going to post more or less the same.

I have a small holding here but its not just because of the threat of Bird Flu, I think the company is fundamentally far too cheap, there are risks with this one but its certainly worth doing research on the company.

I beleive its hit a 52 week low in the last few days aswell, so this may be an entry point for some.