peeyam
- 06 Dec 2005 10:17
reasons:
1) Innovata are in merger talks with skypharma - (company has a valuation between 50-70p) and is currently trading on the lower end.
2) SkyePharma PLC ('the Company')
Notification of Major Interest in Shares
on 17th October 2005 by HBM BioVentures (Cayman) Ltd that following a series of
purchases it held a notifiable interest in 25,000,000 Ordinary shares of the
Company, representing 3.98% of the issued share capital of the Company.
-------------------------
on 25 October 2005 that HBM BioVentures (Cayman) Ltd had increased their
notifiable interest to 32,446,233 Ordinary Shares, representing 5.17% of the
issued share capital of the Company.
----------------------------------------
on 7 November 2005 that HBM BioVentures (Cayman) Ltd had increased their
notifiable interest to 50,000,000 Ordinary Shares, representing 6.63% of the
issued share capital of the Company.
--------------------
on 2 December 2005 that HBM BioVentures (Cayman) Ltd had increased their
notifiable interest to 57,295,894 Ordinary Shares, representing 7.60% of the
issued share capital of the Company.
----------------------------
on 5 December 2005 that HBM BioVentures (Cayman) Ltd had increased their
notifiable interest to 63,780,450 Ordinary Shares, representing 8.46% of the
issued share capital of the Company.
----------------------
HBM BioVentures (Cayman) Ltd have in the past 45 days or so increased their holding in the company from 25 million shares to well over 63 million shares now.
_______________
would love to know what you guys think.
katcenka
- 06 Dec 2005 10:24
- 2 of 74
probably wont happen like all the others mate
peeyam
- 06 Dec 2005 10:36
- 3 of 74
Another interesting fact : On Dec 2nd when HBM BioVentures (Cayman) Ltd increased holdings to 57,295,894 Ordinary Shares, representing 7.60%
trades on that day were :
Buy : 5,969,864
sell : 5,255,177
UnK: 97,475
Next working day 5th dec the company announced they increased holdings to 63,780,450 Ordinary Shares, representing 8.46%
tades on 5th dec
Buy : 962,362
sell : 2,424,714
UnK: 102,517
both days put together is a net of roughly 1 million sell. (figures based on money am trade screen - if anyone have T2 please update on trades not seen here)
where did 6,484,556 shares come from, that HBM BioVentures (Cayman) Ltd bought to increase their holding in the company ??
Any input welcome.
ianwas
- 06 Dec 2005 16:32
- 4 of 74
Large buys and sells by institutions are done through mm's over a period of time and at an agreed price so they could have been accumulated over 1 month for example. A shorter term example is when trades go through they have a letter to denote the trade type ie o means ordinary. The letters vw stand for volume weighted so over a short timescale say 1 day the mm picks up stock as cheaply as he can to fill the order for the quoted price. If he can pick them up cheap he makes more money and vice-versa. Hope this explains a little of what goes on.....
Fundamentalist
- 06 Dec 2005 16:53
- 5 of 74
Peeyam
was there a need to start a new thread?
where do you get a value of 50-70p from - the shares have traded as low as 35p recently and there is also a broker with a target of 150p - where does your range come from?
why do you think a merger with a smaller company, especially Innovata would be good for skp situation - the day this was announced the share price dropped 18%?
Skp is a company with some good drugs and a good pipeline but appaling management which has made many promises to the city over the last 3 to 4 years and has failed to deliver on them and is now completely untrusted - i cant think of a FTSE350 co with a mgmt team that has a lower rating in the city. Due to share holder pressure (mainly Fidelity) they are undertaking a strategic review (including Lehmans assessing selling the business), this is mainly due to most of the institutional stake having been built in the 70-80p range and them finally having had enough of the management overpromising and underdelivering and killing shareholder value.
If the business is to be taken over, then the value is likely to depend largely on the true value of Flutiform - it is the failure to license this drug to one of the big pharmas that has led to the current situation (the company turned down $90m milestone + double digit roylaties well over a year ago).
One big obstacle to a takeover from one of the pharmas is that a lot of the current deals have change of ownership clauses, which could possibly make the deals worth less to any potential suitor. Personally, if a takeover is to happen, i would expect it to come from an independent company who would then break up the company and sell the deals off separately.
As for the future of the share price, I would expect any takeover to be in the 65-75p range unless a bidding war was to develop (looking less likely now), alternatively a merger with Innovata would see the share price where it is currently or falling slightly. If the company stays as is with no consolidation, then there will be increasing pressure on a change of management (if there isnt thew SP will head back towards 35p with no other news)
All imho, dyor, nag
I currently have no position though have held (and shorted) on and off for approx 5 years
Kivver
- 06 Dec 2005 17:03
- 6 of 74
Makes lots of sense fundy. why do you think it was they did not manage to license Flutiform with the high rating it is getting?
Fundamentalist
- 06 Dec 2005 19:05
- 7 of 74
Kivver
Ultimately the blame has to lie at the door of the management and their negotiating skills and either them over valuing it or the pharma who have looked at it under valuing it
The problem with the management is a few years ago they described the potential deal as "company transforming" which meant they had to set the price high, and it was obviously too high for the big pharmas.
Personally much prefer mgmt who dont make such predictions and SKPs mgmt have only confirmed this view further
Kivver
- 09 Jan 2006 14:55
- 8 of 74
sells figures outnumber buys by 3 to 1 but the price goes up, how does that work out???
AndrewThomson77
- 11 Jan 2006 16:32
- 9 of 74
LONDON (Reuters) - Drug delivery firm SkyePharma said it was not certain of getting a takeover offer it could recommend to shareholders, after smaller rival Innovata ended talks over a possible merger.
Full article: http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=stocksNews&storyid=2006-01-11T124936Z_01_NOA146172_RTRUKOC_0_HEALTH-SKYEPHARMA.xml
Share price not taken much of a tumble yet.
Fundamentalist
- 11 Jan 2006 16:39
- 10 of 74
This is finely balanced and a large move either way could be coming soon. At some stage there will either be an offer which will see the SP rise, alternatively the co. will admit they havent found a buyer and the sp will plummet. To me its currently a straightforward gamble as to whether an offer comes or not and hence am on the sidelines. Would look to buy if no offer arrives and the sp heads back towards 35p
Fundamentalist
- 23 Jan 2006 07:50
- 12 of 74
Most long standing shareholders will be celebrating this news, pity it has taken so long - be interesting to see the SP reaction
AndrewThomson77
- 23 Jan 2006 10:55
- 13 of 74
...and interesting to see who the replacement will be.
Most of all, interesting to see the impact this has on prospective buyers of the company.
Kivver
- 24 Jan 2006 16:22
- 14 of 74
which way will this one go, big buys and sells, seems like investors/traders not really having a clue.
Big Bad Al
- 24 Jan 2006 16:29
- 15 of 74
If it goes bottom run 35 count me in !
Fundamentalist
- 24 Jan 2006 16:32
- 16 of 74
The replacement the major shareholders have lined up is a guy called Bob Thian who has a pretty good track record. Whether it gets to this stage before an approach is made who knows - the market certainly doesnt seem to!
Bob Thian has had extensive healthcare management experience with Glaxo Group, Abbott Laboratories and Novo Industri; and was Group Chief Executive of the privatised North West Water Group plc and The Stationery Office Group (ex HMSO). He is currently Chairman of Astron Group Ltd and Orion Group Ltd. Previously, he held non-executive directorships in Celltech Group plc and Medeval Ltd, and chairmanships in Imo Group Ltd and Tactica Solutions Ltd.
SkyePharma faces new battle over chairman
By Richard Irving
THE board of SkyePharma appeared to be heading for yet another bruising battle with the drug makers owners yesterday, vowing that it would strenuously oppose efforts to impose a new chairman on the company.
The boards intent, contained in a statement, came before a meeting today between members of SkyePharmas nominations committee and Bob Thian, the man disgruntled shareholders want to install as chairman and comes after the surprise resignation yesterday of Ian Gowrie-Smith, the incumbent.
Rebel shareholders, led by North Atlantic Value, part of JO Hambro Capital Management, expressed surprise last night at what they called SkyePharmas antagonistic tone, adding that they were sceptical as to how open-minded the board would be to Mr Thians proposals.
One insider claimed that the disaffected shareholders, which also include Morely Fund Management and Insight Investment, would be prepared to requisition an extraordinary general meeting to block any executive appointment but that of Mr Thian.
It is understood that the rebels conducted an exhaustive beauty parade of potential candidates before unanimously agreeing on Mr Thian. One source said last night that it would be suicidal for rivals to stand against their preferred candidate, adding that it would be inconceivable for them to consider alternative options in light of Mr Thians readiness to accept a challenging job.
In a statement, the shareholders welcomed Mr Gowrie-Smiths resignation as an important initial step forward. However, they asked the board to avoid rushing into binding commitments with potential candidates for chairmanship before the EGM.
Mr Gowrie-Smiths sudden departure came just days after a company insider had insisted that his position was not negotiable, despite mounting criticisms from shareholders disappointed at botched efforts to auction off the business.
However, in a contradictory statement released to the Stock Exchange yesterday morning, SkyePharma said that headhunters had been asked to seek out a replacement last year. The process was put on ice, the company said, after the board had received an approach from Innovata, a smaller drug maker. A spokesman said that the company had identified a number of excellent candidates and that the board would approve a new chairman at its next meeting, scheduled for February 1.
Mr Gowrie-Smith, who is in Australia, said: It is unfortunate that the short-term interests of a small group of shareholders can cause such disruption to the development of a company. The former chairman, who was on a three-year contract, had a salary of 140,000. A spokesman said he would not seek compensation for loss of office. It was not clear if he would be due payments for stepping down early as a non-executive director.
LONDON (AFX) - The grouping of rebel shareholders who forced the resignation
of SkyePharma PLC chairman Ian Gowrie-Smith yesterday, is claiming the support
of over 50 pct of investors to install Bob Thian as his replacement, according
to a source at North Atlantic Value (NAV) LLP.
NAV formed the group with Insight Investment and Morley Fund Management
which pushed for Gowrie-Smith's ousting.
The source said that Thian is meeting with SkyePharma's non-executive
directors today as the two parties attempt to thrash out a deal which would
avoid the EGM threatened by the shareholders group.
NAV and the others have said they would call the meeting if the company
attempted to bring in its own candidate for the role, as it had hoped to do by
Feb 1.
"We want the company to accept his appointment and want it to make no
commitments until he becomes chairman," the NAV source said. He also noted that
investors want Gowrie-Smith to his clear his desk now, rather than wait for the
AGM later this year.
"We think we have substantial support (for Thian), and enough to win the EGM
if we need to," he said, adding that that means NAV, Morley and Insight are
counting on support of "over 50 pct."
"We are in discussion with other large shareholders... I can't reveal what
other shareholders have said, but we have support from a substantial number."
Those investors are concerned that anyone put up by the company would
essentially be a product of the Gowrie-Smith "regime", which the source said had
allowed a high level of "governance malpractice."
Thian is known to NAV and other shareholders from the time he was brought in
to turn around Whatman PLC.
The source noted he is known for his "track record on corporate governance,"
and stressed that SkyePharma will not be in for the swingeing cuts and
repositioning that occurred at Whatman.
"The issue is maximising value on the portfolio of drugs we have at the
moment," he said.
That was where Gowrie-Smith antagonised shareholders, and where Thian will
be expected to excel. Gowrie-Smith was guilty of "mishandling" the search for a
partner for asthma treatment flutiform, asking for too much money up front and
over-egging the prospects, according to the source.
"That was the icing on the cake," the source said.
Whatever their past experiences with SkyePharma though, the shareholders are
ready to melt into the background should Thian take charge.
"We're not in the business of taking boardroom control. We will remain
holders of stock but with fresh confidence in the new chairman."
North Atlantic Value's stated fund management strategy is to invest in deep
value situations, in companies where the core of the business is still strong:
"We don't look for companies where hostile action is needed, but if we feel
action is needed to create value then we will take it."
Kivver
- 02 Feb 2006 13:01
- 17 of 74
bit of turmoil this morn with skp putting a chairman into a position some shareholders will not like, but caused a fall in the share price and may be over done worth keeping an eye on. around 39.5p at the mo.
Kivver
- 03 Feb 2006 13:46
- 18 of 74
fall halted and starting to creep back up around 41.5p at the mo.
Kivver
- 06 Feb 2006 14:06
- 19 of 74
new ceo in place, please do a good job and get these shares back to where they should be.
Fundamentalist
- 06 Feb 2006 14:59
- 20 of 74
Kivver
i see the company are still fighting the wishes of the bigger shareholders which could keep the price suppressed if any of them decide to follow Fidelitys lead and start offloading
Kivver
- 06 Feb 2006 15:13
- 21 of 74
totally agree with you Fundy, this was a great chance to breath some fresh air into the company and they failed to it. Fidelity have sold some but still hold some too. UBS AG and its subsidiaries have increased there holding by 7 million to 37 million. I think the products are too good for the company to fail and they do seem to be trying to get their act together, only time will tell whether they have succeeded or not.
Fundamentalist
- 06 Feb 2006 16:19
- 22 of 74
Kivver
will be an article on front page of FT tomorrow under the headline "Skyepharma defies rebels by naming Condella as new chief"
Kivver
- 08 Feb 2006 10:32
- 23 of 74
over 4 million sells, few buys and the price goes up, very weird!!
Fundamentalist
- 08 Feb 2006 17:01
- 24 of 74
so Fid have started buying again - hmmm
theyve added 1.6m
Kivver
- 08 Feb 2006 17:08
- 25 of 74
cheers fundy, weird too after just selling so many, i still have a lot to learn to understand this game.
Fundamentalist
- 08 Feb 2006 18:17
- 26 of 74
Kivver
i think so do fidelity lol
i think theres a lot more to unravel before it will be clear where this going, still watching from the sidelines (having been a holder on off for way too long!) but would be tempted at mid 30p levels
ahoj
- 08 Feb 2006 22:58
- 27 of 74
Well. I think they are happy to fight. Can it be a method of keeping the share price low?
watching with interest
Kivver
- 09 Feb 2006 16:57
- 28 of 74
a little push upwards today may prove to be good news, 42p
Kivver
- 13 Feb 2006 15:33
- 29 of 74
and another steady push today on the day gowrie announces his retirement, could be interesting and mixed over the next couple of months. up 6% today to 43.5p. one to watch over the medium term imho. dyor
Fundamentalist
- 13 Feb 2006 18:15
- 30 of 74
his depaerture was always likely to be greeted by a rise in SP - a fair opinion of his management!!!
Kivver
- 13 Feb 2006 18:19
- 31 of 74
lets hope this inspires the rest to get their act together and promote what are FUNDAMENTALLY good products and pipe line.
Kivver
- 14 Feb 2006 08:23
- 32 of 74
held its own this morn, so a positive start for a change how long will it last???
Kivver
- 15 Feb 2006 09:02
- 33 of 74
still holding steady, still a lot of work to be done to but certainly worth putting in stock watch. looking for a miminal return 52-54p at first. Of course that would be around 20% return. looking foward to some positive news skppy.
Kivver
- 16 Feb 2006 08:52
- 34 of 74
egm set for the 9th march, lets get it over, then get back to the real business of promoting and pushing good products!!
Kivver
- 02 Mar 2006 21:26
- 35 of 74
the title of the thread asks it all. back up a bit today so there hope...... i hope!!! finished just over 42p.
Tonker
- 03 Mar 2006 08:54
- 36 of 74
I'm putting this one on my stockwatch... feel there could be something good here. who or what is "UBS AG"... have noticed they have a good share in D1 Oils
Kivver
- 03 Mar 2006 08:59
- 37 of 74
9th of march is critical and the management need to convince the rebels they are doing all they possibly can to get the best out of the company and the products they have. Not sure about ubs, but they must be institution than invests in companies to make (or try) money for their customers.
Fundamentalist
- 03 Mar 2006 09:03
- 38 of 74
UBs are a big Swiss bank, no different to the other investment banks
As you say Kivver, 9th is critical, though personally if i was currently a holder, id be voting for change. Current management have had many years to prove they care about shareholder value and failed miserably.
Still watching but will not consider a position till after the EGM
Kivver
- 03 Mar 2006 13:37
- 39 of 74
still holding up, hope people are watching.
Fundamentalist
- 05 Mar 2006 15:25
- 40 of 74
Skp mgmt really do know how to win the support of their shareholders. Yet again, a crucial announcement has been made after hours on a friday - if they werent happy with the NAV claims, why wasnt this statement made earlier, and why havent they issued a formal trading update as per prior years - something to hide?
That said, the way NAV are conducting themselves throughout the process hasnt been particulalry helpful either
looks like shareholders dont have a great option, between the two sides, the potential of the pipeline and any remaining shreds of credibility are being destroyed, along with shareholder value
Skyepharma PLC
03 March 2006
For Immediate Release 3 March 2006
SkyePharma PLC
Clarification of Financial Position
LONDON, UK, 3 March 2006 - SkyePharma PLC (LSE: SKP; Nasdaq: SKYE) wishes to
clarify its financial condition following claims made by the NAV group in the
media today.
Under the UK Listing Rules a company is required to report if there is a
material change in its financial condition. There has been no material change in
SkyePharma's financial condition since the working capital statement in the
Rights Issue document.
Yesterday the NAV group issued a document and SkyePharma responded to all its
claims proving that their assertions over corporate governance are completely
without foundation. However, verbally the NAV group has made outrageous claims
about SkyePharma's cash position.
No mention of the alleged cash problem was included in the NAV group's written
release. This is another example of the under-hand tactics this small
collection of shareholders are using which continue to destroy value in
SkyePharma. Shareholders should realise the damage these slurs are causing.
Jerry Karabelas said:
'There is no cash problem.
'The behaviour of the NAV group is disgraceful. Having failed to make their
innuendos over corporate governance stick they have spread rumours which are
simply untrue.
'The time has come for other shareholders to stand up for SkyePharma before the
NAV group do any more damage'.
Fundamentalist
- 05 Mar 2006 15:29
- 41 of 74
SkyePharma pulls trading statement amid funding fears
By Lauren Mills
05 March 2006
SKYEPHARMA, the troubled UK drugs company, has pulled its trading statement ahead of this Thursdays shareholder meeting raising fresh fears about the drug companys financial health.
The trading statement was originally expected two weeks ago, then delayed until last week.
A SkyePharma spokesman said: The trading update is essentially a product update and it will be issued with the preliminary results in April. The key point is that if there was anything material that needed to be announced in a trading update then it would have been announced already to meet disclosure requirements.
Rebel shareholders, led by North Atlantic Value (NAV), are campaigning to oust Jerry Karabelas as SkyePharmas chairman and install Bob Thian, chairman of laboratory equipment firm Whatman and Southern Water, in his place. They are angry because the company has not yet disclosed the full extent of the drain on its cash resources.
The rebels claim Karabelas told them in a meeting in February that the group could face a going concern issue in June.
They allege that they were told the company could run out of cash if SkyePharma was unable to sell its Santiago-based injectables business, or if it failed to find a partner for Flutiform, its asthma treatment, or was unable to find a partner to help fund late-stage trials of DepoBupivacaine, one of its pain-relief drugs.
SkyePharma has since admitted that if the business was left in its existing form with no licensing deal or disposals and with new management imposed by NAV, then it could face a funding crisis. Theoretically that is possible, said Ken Cunningham, the groups chief operating officer.
In a statement late on Friday, Karabelas denied the drug development group was in financial trouble. There is no cash problem, he said.
Karabelas statement was not enough to allay the rebels fears about SkyePharmas financial position. In an interview with The Business, Thian gave a grim warning that the company will need to raise new cash to survive.
I would be amazed if this company did not need to raise more money from shareholders at some time not too far in the future, he said. It has some very interesting products, all of which need funding, and there is not enough money to develop them to the point of making a return.
Thian, who describes himself as a reforming chairman, said he would work full-time for SkyePharma if appointed chairman. I see it as a 90-hours-a-week job, he said.
Thian added that he was disappointed that the company had not taken the opportunity to update the City with a trading statement.
There must be no further doubt about the probity of the company and this was an opportunity to put the facts into the public domain and allay investors concerns, he said.
The rebels believe Thian has what it takes to restore SkyePharmas fortunes. They cite his success at Whatman, where he engineered a turnround that resulted in a threefold increase in the value of the companys shares. SkyePharmas board are strongly opposed to his appointment.
http://www.thebusinessonline.com/Stories.aspx?SkyePharma%20pulls%20trading%20statement%20amid%20funding%20fears&StoryID=283F5B53-2482-4601-850D-8A618D22E726&SectionID=F3B76EF0-7991-4389-B72E-D07EB5AA1CEE
Kivver
- 06 Mar 2006 22:43
- 42 of 74
the time has come for the management to stand up and do something positive, stop blaming everybody else and have look at themselves. tipped in shares mag for one of the tips of the year for 2005 let alone 2006 and you are lower now then you were then. what have you (the management) done in over a year??? you have good products a look pieline but the shareprice has gone down, i know who i blame!! saying all that im in, staying in, and hope you can get your act together.
Fundamentalist
- 06 Mar 2006 22:46
- 43 of 74
Kivver,
look further back, its a lot longer than 1 yr! Been tipped many times over the last 5 or 6 years yet the management has continually failed to deliver on its jam tomorrow promises - just wish i hadnt trusted what they said for so long!!!
Kivver
- 06 Mar 2006 22:51
- 44 of 74
i take you have been in on this one fundy ??? it was the shares tip last year which brought my attention to it (only been seriuosly investing for about 2 years).
Fundamentalist
- 06 Mar 2006 22:56
- 45 of 74
Been in and out several times over the last 5 yrs. Last time i was long i sold on the morning the rights issue was announced then shorted it immediately and had all my losses from the trade back in two hours.
Its quite a sad story really cos the pipeline and potential the company has had throughout that period has been impressive, just the management have never managed to extract any value. Should have realised when they got such a poor deal from Glaxo for the Paxil CR that the mgmt wasnt capable, but ignored this and repeated signs (ie the pulmonary deal failed promises) so if nothing else its been a learning experience for me, saying that i am actually up over the years, it just wasnt as good as i expected or worth the hassle.
Kivver
- 06 Mar 2006 23:14
- 46 of 74
looks like i may have put too much faith in too, now bought 3 batches and in loss with all 3. if this egm doesnt work in my (and others) favour i could lose a lot of money. There has been a fair sized volume of shares traded in the last week or so and the price hasnt dropped dramatically so that has
given me a bit of hope.
Fundamentalist
- 06 Mar 2006 23:19
- 47 of 74
have you voted at the egm? if so which way if i may ask
Kivver
- 06 Mar 2006 23:36
- 48 of 74
i asked this question on another bb, i hav'nt a clue how to. If certificates are held by a broker (like most investors i presume) how do investors get a vote????
Fundamentalist
- 06 Mar 2006 23:39
- 49 of 74
you need to phone the broker and ask for a "proxy voting form", you should really have received this from your broker but the short timescales have given the brokers little chance to get it sorted
Kivver
- 06 Mar 2006 23:42
- 50 of 74
not heard or seen anything, suppose that will have happened to a lot of investors, thanks for the info. i would like to hear what the management have to say then make a decision after that but suppose thats not the way it works.
Camel
- 07 Mar 2006 17:12
- 51 of 74
I phoned my broker who voted on my behalf.
Kivver
- 08 Mar 2006 11:54
- 52 of 74
any thoughts on 2morrows EGM???
Fundamentalist
- 08 Mar 2006 13:43
- 53 of 74
wouldnt want to 2nd guess what will happen or what impact it will have on the SP
Kivver
- 08 Mar 2006 16:24
- 54 of 74
still no mass sell off gives me great hope.
Fundamentalist
- 09 Mar 2006 11:07
- 55 of 74
Fundamentalist
- 09 Mar 2006 11:27
- 56 of 74
SKP have asked Bob Thian to become non exec chairman
Kivver
- 09 Mar 2006 12:56
- 57 of 74
cheers fundy, price still holding, lets have some good news.
Kivver
- 09 Mar 2006 16:32
- 58 of 74
looks like the vote went in favour (just) of the current board, hope they pull their finger out now and put this company where it should be. lIKE IN THE FTSE 100 let alone the ftse 250 (demoted from that too)!!
Kivver
- 21 Mar 2006 13:43
- 59 of 74
thanks skp for doing your very best as our investments disappear. NOT
Fundamentalist
- 21 Mar 2006 14:19
- 60 of 74
I see share price is disappointing again, no incentive for buying. Some news from mgmt re the way forward and or a trading statement would help. A close below 40p will make the chart look really ugly though there is further support around 35p and then the 30p of the rights issue
Kivver
- 21 Mar 2006 14:48
- 61 of 74
cheers fundy, i was hoping the support level was 40p we're now down below this. I know if i sell it will go back up, if i dont sell is will carry on going down. But like you say the board could surely do something to give us some hope.
Kivver
- 17 Apr 2006 10:38
- 62 of 74
results out on Wednesday, a couple of webcasts coming to the market over the next couple off months, hope they offer investors some hope. Im out of this one at the moment but watching with interest. 39p at the mo.
Fundamentalist
- 17 Apr 2006 10:48
- 63 of 74
Kivver
was an article in yesterdays Telegraph, saying that losses are likely to be over 30m rather than the 26m expected due to additional costs in developing flutiform. Personally always had them pencilled in as 30m-35m for this year.
Saying that i dont think the size of the loss is going to be the key factor, more so what the management actually say, could be an interesting week SP wise - will continue to watch with interest
Kivver
- 19 Apr 2006 09:03
- 64 of 74
All a little clearer after todays statement. 35 million in cash, 50 million costs to go through phase 3 of flutiform, hoping to find a partner this year (how close they are nobody knows). Should be ready for market in 2009 and worth multi-millions. Other good products in the pipeline. Losses on some products this year compared to last. Personally going to stay out for while (already sold at a big loss) but looks good for the longer term, just a judgement now of when many will pile in.
I believe there is a a webcast today which will hopefully shed some light on things.
Fundamentalist
- 19 Apr 2006 09:52
- 65 of 74
Kivver
My reading of the results is the company is very close to becoming overly dependent on Flutiform. With regard to finding a partner, this promise has been ongoing for nearly 3 years and is a repeat of the statements from previous years(though toned down from when it was "company transforming". Maybe theyll finally deliver but to be honest i take the comments with a huge dose of salt. They are also going to need to sell the injectables part of the business to guarantee future security - surprised to see no update on this.
The only real positive i can see is that surely they have all the bad news out in the open now!
With regard to other products the news is pretty poor:
Paxil CR - this should have been a great cash cow for the company but have made a hash of. The patent situation now looks like this will continue to decline to nothing over the next couple of years
Foradil Certihaler - still having problems with labelling and despite approval in many countries doesnt appear to be coming to the market soon
Requip CR - withdrawn the filing
Propfol IDD - FDA have asked for further testing and the project is now "under strategic review"
All in all a horrible set of results and now promising less jam than before. Cash going forward could become a problem the rate they are burning at especially whilst they are sole developer of flutiform.
As for flutiform being worth multi-millions, why have several potential partners turned down the opportunity on this product? Have the company been trying to overachieve on the price or is the product not as good as mgmt have been continually promising?
Kivver
- 19 Apr 2006 10:05
- 66 of 74
Cheers Fundy,
summed it up beatifully and fully agree with your taking RNS comments with a pinch of salt. Im only a small time investor (doing it about 3 years now) and the one big learning curves has been the exaggerated predictions made in alot of RNS statement. Promise you the earth and deliver little to nothing. Transense technologies (trt), bioprogress (bprg) and Centurion Electronics (cuc) have been three other great examples of this (sure there are many more). Will watch with interest and if anything comes of it then great im out at a big loss so looking elsewhere to make my money back. Any ideas Fundy???
webcast was all if, buts and maybes it seems its all down to flutiform at the momemt and the kind of deal they can generate. Paxcil is quickly going to go out of the equation. It could come good but will take time.
Fundamentalist
- 19 Apr 2006 11:42
- 67 of 74
Kivver
the content of RNS comments can be very useful but the amount of notice i pay to them is dependent on the previous success of the management to deliver promises. SKP mgmt has been "out of favour" in the city for approx 4/5 years when they first started not meeting promises.
with comparison to the other co's you mention, SKP should have been more reliable being a FTSE250 stock, just go's to show size doesnt guarantee security.
I have actually made a few quid out of SKP over the years, but nowhere near as much as i expected considering the promising position the company was in a few years ago.
As far as other shares, at the moment i am short term bearish about most shares and hence have few open long positions. Those i do are focussed mainly on the oil sector. Currently hold DNX (have done from 220p a few year back, now 1105p) as a long term position and have shorter term positions on BG (from 698p now 769p) and HTG (from 332p now 393p).
The DNX position is fundamental based, though the chart is fabulous, with a new breakout just occurred, the other two are shorter term chart based positions (though the fundamentals on both are strong)
The only other small position I have is Halladale (HDG) a small commercial property co that are AIM listed. Have recently taken most of my profits as the recent good run appears to have run out of steam though long term they are very attractive fundamentally.
As you'll notice, none of these shares are much discussed on BBs, i tend to prefer the shares with strong fundamentals/charts that are not based on hype (as per most of the shares on the investors room BB)
Good luck in recouping your losses :-)
Kivver
- 20 Apr 2006 09:28
- 68 of 74
Like your style Fundy, and i use a similar approach and do not understand or want to understand all this Technical Analysis. It seems pretty simple to me if a chart is generally in an upward dierection that is good sign and visa versa. 2 shares i looked at big time about year ago (but didnt buy) was xstrata and Dana (your great pick) which i think probably as a lot more to run. Still thinking about getting in but not helped by the rise in oil prices (will it last???). Also advised as a sell by Investors Chronicles magazine, which i think they have completly wrong. Sick as a pig i didnt buy. bhp Billiton also worth a big look.
Kenmare Resourses, iqe, asos and Corus have been my big stars. Advise all to look at kenmare around july and if below 50p, mine still on schedule to be finished by the end of year, look for around 70p (on fundamentals).
as for skp just going to keep on my watch list. cheers fundy.
Harry Peterson
- 20 Apr 2006 10:04
- 69 of 74
The price fluctuations on this share lends itself to short term investment when on dips like today. Have been watching but dare not dip my toe!
Fundamentalist
- 20 Apr 2006 11:21
- 70 of 74
Kivver
Up until last year i had the same approach to TA in that i didnt understand it and didnt really want to. However, i have learnt mainly point and figure charting which i have to admit has been very helpful to me and provides a great insight into the overall markets as well as individual shares. It also is quite accurate at providsing target prices.
DNX got plenty still to run, they have an extensive drill programme over the 2 years and several of these are potentially company transforming. In addition production from existing and recently online fields is growing and is all fully exposed to oil prices rises as they are unhedged.
ASOS was one that got away for me. Bought when single figures but sold way too soon :-(
will take a look at Kenmare
barrenwuffet
- 20 Apr 2006 17:04
- 71 of 74
If youve had a good day please consider giving a donation to the lads dressed as Elvis racing 350 miles to the North Pole on behalf of Great Ormond Street Hospital It makes the London Marathon seem like a stroll in the park!
To donate or view how theyre getting on visit
http://www.elvispolarchallenge.co.uk/
thanks for your time
Fundamentalist
- 21 Dec 2006 21:08
- 73 of 74
see theyve finally got Foradil approved in the US, shame of the management incompetence prior to this
hangon
- 06 Mar 2007 17:33
- 74 of 74
Web-cast Feb 2007.
I read about this (Feb 2007) and that it would be available on their website for 3-months.
So how do I view this?
I can find only a mention to it, - did it occur,
- or what?