This is huge get in before the heard arrives to work this morning, the new VOG

Marvellous, Marvellous, Marvellous!!!!! Made 120 profit in the time it took me to call my Dad in England and give him the tip :o)

Soul traders -- you might be right - my valuation is to low. Your ten bagger comment has perhaps never been as valid --- by the end of the week ?

Just also like to say thx to TheMaster -- you're certainly living up to your name today. :-)

Confi, I think the truth probably lies somewhere between the two. I think I'd be conmfortable with your estimate of 100 mil for the next few weeks or couple of months, ten-bagger not out of the question if they confirm further discoveries.

Let's just say I'm happy to sit back and watch the action - profits seem certain, the question is how much, how soon. :o)

Right just re-read statement -- find based on 3D seismic -- not the drill holes

This suggests further away but no worries but I'll go back to the 3 PT not the ten-bagger short term anyway

I was about to say hang on chaps but I see confident has spotted the omission.

From the top of my head;

This is based on 3d, as was Flamant which is a duster.(Dana, Hardman and co today)

Sampaguita, (I'll check the spelling later), has been previously drilled by either Marthon or Shell in the 1970's I think, I cant recall who, some years back.

They know the gas is there, so the 3d is lilely to be a fair representation of what is there, but FEP knew this before the 3d, all it did was confirm it.

So, any rise today may not continue in the near term, be warned, long term once they drill and confirm, it may be a different story.

Still no rush to get in imo.

Now to check the off the top of my head thoughts.

Back soon.

Seawallwalker

agreed comments with only point to note is that share price has been higher before

news here seems to be confirmed minimum size plus upside way above anything

so minimum easily underpins at these levels . Farm out must be on cards -- if they can keep 50% bonanza - 25% and the 300p still looks valid on, and only on the 3.4TCF unless you get really aggressive on discount rates --say 15% or more

place it versus competitors valuations and here at 125p still good looking

just be careful chaps ...... FEP is still a mini-minnow running at a loss and with just this one success in a totally corrupt part of the world (i won't deal there in my normal biz) etc etc etc ..... FEP also still have to get the gas out of the ground which will more than likely mean a major cash call ...... meanwhile the lemmings are rushing in headlong, even though the price has all but doubled this morning.

for myself, i think i shall sit this one out and stay with VOG which arguably has better foundations and many other positives

Thanks confidant, I have just been punting around trying to locate articles I read some 3 to 4 years ago, and it may take some time.

At the risk of repeating whats in the RNS, the 3d siesmic was shot in May 2005, and has been interpreted by Veritas(?), previous estimtes of gas reserves were not too far off what has been announced today from what I see, all they are doing then is upping it and confiorming possible reserves in place.

Next I have discovered that STERLING ENERGY have applied for a Service Contract for GCSE101, on the 22wnd August 2006.

Why if Forum hold 100% of the license?

This from OIl Barrel some while back

Having said that there seemed to be no big prospects on the horizon in the Philippines, Forum has a key asset in the Reed Bank licence, which covers a large offshore area to the west of Palawan Island. In 2005 Forum completed the acquisition of 100 per cent of GESC 101 (Reed Bank) from the UKs Sterling Energy in exchange for Sterling having a 28.6 per cent interest in Forum (pre-fund raising). Reed Bank holds a number of prospects and leads, the most exciting and immediate of which is the Sampaguita gas discovery that could contain over 2.3 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves and is on trend with the giant producing Malampaya gas and oilfield 150 kms away.
Oil Barrel article

Anyway, I am still not tempted to come in here and I do expect it to be a good shorting opportunity once the froth has been blown off.

As cynic says, be careful and be prepared to bank any profit if it looks like dropping back.

The gas in place will only be confirmed after a sustained exploration and assessment drilling campaign

All imo, dyor nag. etc.

http://www.forumenergyplc.com/operations/oilandgas/reed-bank.aspx

The Reed Bank concession, GSEC 101 (Reed Bank), is located in the South China Sea west of Palawan Island. The licence is located to the southwest of the Shell-operated Malampaya Gas Field.

GSEC 101 (Reed Bank) was awarded to Sterling in June 2002 and covered an initial two-year term. Exploration in the area began in 1970 and in 1976 gas was discovered following the drilling of a well. In total, four wells have been drilled to date, all located at the south west end of the structure. Two of the wells tested gas at rates of 3.6 mmcf/d and 3.2 mmcf/d.

This from Forums Web site, so as I said, the find was known about and was descibed as hugew and stranded by Sterling.

Now, as there is an upgrade in possible reserves, that accounts for whats occurring now.

The next thing is, can they make it unstranded, and can they get it to market?

Time will tell.

Good luck people, still not coming in.

Master - excellent spot at 08.53.

Thanks Guy's, my problem is when to sell my 10K worth (now or tomorrow morning)

I would have liked that dillema.

That is a sound trading ethic.

Are you Paul?

1. You could sell and leave enough to be in for less than nothing i.e. take 120% of cost and keep rest

2. This is how I play these things -- or at least try too --- AEN and VOG with similar announcements went like this.

Day 1 +50%
Day 2 +100% -- why more 2nd day -- news splashed over the papers
Day 3 gapped up on opening and then sold down.

So basically sell at 8.10am on the 3rd day . However there will always be exceptions.

Also note both then rose substantially after a period of consolidation BUT AEN is now worthless and VOG trades at a level below where it closed on Day 1

So these are certainly shares to trade. In the long term they may become very big fish, or like AEN worthless. But unless you only have a very small amount of your wealth in the stock so you can just forget it for 10 years, you need to take some profits al;ong the way

Well done guys! Am not in this one, but good to see the little investors hitting the jackpot once in a while. Gives us all hope!

I wonder why the Samnpaguitta did not do for Sterling when they owned it, what it has done for Forum now they own it?

I wonder why Sterling has not reflected this rise today seeing as they own 14% of Forum?

I wonder?

By the way the Times splashed it on the "Rumour of the day" and included Sterling, so I wonder?

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8211-2374631,00.html

Afternoon all.

I'm surprised that some of you aren't a little more positive about FEP's prospects. The reserves estimate is for a field where there is known to be gas - (EDIT) which is not unlike VOG in August last year. Further appraisal drilling will of course be necessary, but one would hope that the likelihood of a duster is less than that of HNR's Flamant and in line with the kind of prospects that are said to remain with VOG (Well 103, and the rest of West Med).

FEP's current production is not huge although they have their coal production coming on stream soon. Discounting the coal scenario, I still don't see why this should not be accorded a higher rating on the basis of current field status plus a decent exploration premium. VOG didn't have much going on at Kemerkol in autumn last year and still eight-bagged on the news of reserves upgrades in the trillions of TCF's. Even when they only had around 16 BCF gas confirmed by D&M on 22 August the compnay was worth around 40 million, so I'd like to think we could see a lot more mileage on this yet.

On the other hand, the SP could languish for months like that of RIFT, but for my money this is a different kettle of fish.

Disagreements welcome - good luck to all!

15% of a 17m pound company is worth c 2.2m

15% of a 35m pound company is worth c4.4m

mkt cap of sterlng 257m -- immaterial even if fep trebles from here

soul in my view, this is a trading stock.

Once the news is out, digested, everyone has had their pound of it, it's time to sell it on.

If anyone holds at these levels, without there being production they will see the profit go.

That's my take.

Frankly it's a nice comopnay if you were in at the recnt lows.

Beyond that who knows where the sp will settle?

I know what I think.

Thansk for that Confident, that explains that.

As for the SP descending sharply - it may do yet but so far it has almost doubled today. I'd be surprised if this didn't find support around the 60-million mark due to its prospects, and without trying to ramp I feel it's worth a good deal more.

Still, each to their own. I missed the rise on GOO so am merely trying to make up for lost opportunities :o)