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"NAME THAT PRICE" RTD (RTD)     

cantley - 03 Sep 2003 20:42


I THOUGHT LETS HAVE A BIT OF FUN,AS A FEW OF US HOLD THIS STOCK IN ANTICIPATION
OF TUESDAYS RESULTS.

NAME THE PRICE AT CLOSE OF BUSINESS ON TUESDAY
"OH" AND THE WINNER GETS A ROUND OF APPLAUSE


I SAY 15.78


HOW ABOUT YOU?

robstuff - 10 Sep 2003 12:01 - 10 of 11

I agree, the longer term looks good, and as you say the market for their product is huge, have half left and will prob pick up more before long.. be patient!

jules99 - 11 Sep 2003 19:22 - 11 of 11

For the serious RTD Holders taken from Motley.

That 'Shares magazine' piece in full (ripped from ADVFN):

SHARES MAGAZINE - PLAYS OF THE WEEK 11-09-2003


RETAIL DECISIONS (RTD) 12.625p Buy
By rights, Retail Decisions should by now be in its dotage. It started life as Card Clear where its core business was compiling lists of stolen credit cards. Banks check this database when a card is swiped. This was a good business, but apparently faced only a modest future when the banks decided to introduce smart cards and personal identity numbers (PINs). There is no comparable service in France, where cards have had PINs for many years.

So why is Retail still with us? Mainly because it made a cash generative acquisition in Australia. It has also developed or acquired software that can tackle fraud where the card is not present, such as over the internet or the phone. It looks for unusual spending patterns.

In Australia, Retail bought a business that issues fuel cards and processes the transactions. Revenues are directly related to the value of fuel purchased. This meant there was a small fillip in the first half when oil prices spiked. The recent rise of the Aussie dollar has also helped.

Two big contracts are shrinking. These are with Apacs, the UK banking consortium, and with AT& T, the American phone giant. Both services are based on checking for reported hot cards.

Apacs used to contribute nearly all profits. Today, its contribution is down to 7%. The service seems likely to survive in some form because visitors from outside Europe will still be brandishing non-chip cards.

Stripping out the declining legacy contracts, underlying sales growth in the first half was 21%. The company reckons this pace is sustainable. One reason for its confidence is its move to charging per transaction instead of having upfront licence. This allows Retail to tap into the massive growth of online purchases.

The second half may be less spectacular because there will be fewer one-offs. But it seems realistic to expect earnings per share (EPS), pre-goodwill and exceptionals, of 1.2p for the year. In 2004, a 20% rise in non-legacy sales would send EPS to 1.8p, assuming a 50% gross margin.


Shares Summary


The company has broken into profit for the first time since demerging from Card Clear in 2000.
Credit card fraud is booming.
Chip and PIN cards remain vulnerable when used abroad.
Online transactions are soaring, and so are Retail's fees.
Business: Credit card fraud detection

Vital stats:
Market capitalisation: 36m
Historic PE: loss
Prospective PE for 2003: 11*
Prospective PE for 2004: 8*
No dividend

*pre-goodwill
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