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Traders Thread - Friday 30th January (ALLD)
Crocodile - 29 Jan 2004 21:53
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US Stocks Blue-chips rally near close, pushing DOW and S&P 500 higher. Nasdaq recovers, too. Interest rates will have to have to rise gradually if the economy runs in line with the government's economic forecast in November, a senior Bank of England official has said. Friends Provident life insurer reported a 14 percent increase in annual life and pensions sales and said it expected to expand market share in 2004. New business sales rose to 429.2 million pounds from 377 million just ahead of analysts forecast of 427 million. HSBC Holdings said it remains open to acquisitions but has no new buys on the horizon. Acambis vaccines maker said it was closing its research operation in Cambridge, eastern England, with the loss of about 40 jobs as it moves to streamline its development projects. Maiden Group outdoor advertising company said it expected to report 2003 pre-tax profit of 5.3-5.5 million pounds adding that 2004 is demonstrating a continuation of the recovery National Express Group was named by the Britain's rail authority to operate the new Greater Anglia franchise in Eastern England. |
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Friends Provident FY Sales 427m exp, Whittard of Chelsea (I)Allied Domecq (AGM), Alibi communications (AGM) Ultimate Leisure Group (EGM) Forever Broadcasting (AGM), Slimma PLC (AGM) 09.30 Dec Final M4 Money Supply y/y 6.7% exp. 09.30 Dec Net consumer Credit 1.4bn exp. 09.30 Dec Net Lending Secure on Dwellings 8.7bn |
Chevron Texaco (Q4) 13.30 Q4 GDP 4.9% exp. 13.30 Q4 Personal consumption 3.0% exp. 14.50 Jan Final Michigan Sentiment 102.7 exp. 15.00 Jan Chicago PMI 62.0 exp. |
Pechiney (F), SAP (F) 07.00 Dec German Retail Sales m/m 0.5% exp 09.00 Nov Current Account 6.5bn exp. 11.00 Jan Industrial confidence 7.0 exp. 11.00 Jan Economic confidence 95.6 exp. 11.00 Jan consumer confidence 16.0 exp. 11.00 Jan Business Climate Indicator 0.0 exp. |
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little woman
- 30 Jan 2004 13:34
- 10 of 15
This is why the sudden drop
+DJ US GDP Rose At 4.0% Rate In 4th Qtr
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
January 30, 2004 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
*DJ Real Final Sales Rose At 3.4% In 4th Qtr
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
January 30, 2004 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
*DJ PCE Price Index Dn At 0.6% Rate In 4th Qtr
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
January 30, 2004 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
*DJ Domestic Purchases Price Index Dn at 1.0% Rate In 4Q
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
January 30, 2004 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
*DJ US GDP Rose 3.1% for the year 2003
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
January 30, 2004 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
=DJ DATA SNAP: US GDP Slows In 4Q; Economy Grows 3.1% In &apos03
==========================================================
Gross Domestic Product 4th 3rd 2nd Surprise: Yes !
Overall GDP Growth 4.0% 8.2% 3.1% Survey: +4.8% !
PCE Price Index 0.6% 1.8%r 0.5% Trend: Economy!
Rising !
=========================================================
By Elizabeth Price
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. output growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter from the heated pace of the previous period, but continued to show broadbased strength throughout the economy.
Fourth quarter gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced in the U.S., rose at a 4.0% annual rate, about half the unrevised 8.2% rate reported for the third quarter, the Commerce Department said Friday.
Solid contributions from personal consumption, exports, equipment and software, inventory investment and residential investment supported growth in the last quarter of the year, Commerce said. The strong finish brought annual GDP to a 3.1% advance for 2003.
Still, growth in the fourth quarter was slower than Wall Street had predicted. A Dow Jones Newswires-CNBC survey of 23 economists forecast growth of 4.8% for the quarter.
Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of economic activity, rose 2.6% in the fourth quarter, on top of 6.9% spending growth in the third quarter. Purchases of durable goods, items meant to last three years or more, increased 0.9%, after a 28% gain in the prior period. Non-durable purchases rose 4.4%, following the third quarter&aposs 7.3% rise.
Government spending rose 0.8% in the fourth quarter, compared with a 1.8% rise in the third quarter. Federal government spending increased by 0.7%, while state and local government spending climbed 0.9%.
Business investment rose 6.9% during the fourth quarter, slowing from a 12.8% advance in the third. Investment in non-residential structures fell 3.0% during the quarter, a sharper decline than the 1.8% decrease reported for the third quarter. Spending on equipment and software rose 10%, after the third quarter gain of 17.6%. Spending on housing rose 10.6%, after a 21.9% gain.
Overall private investment was up 12.4% in the fourth quarter, following a 14.8% gain in the third.
Businesses built inventories by $6.1 billion during the fourth quarter, following decreases of $9.1 billion and $4.5 billion in the prior two quarters.
Real final sales of domestic product - that is, GDP less the change in private inventories - rose at a 3.4% annual rate. Third-quarter real final sales climbed at an 8.3% annual rate.
Exports, supported by the weaker U.S. dollar and stronger demand abroad, climbed by 19.1% in the fourth quarter, while imports advanced by 11.3%.
The government report suggested inflation edged down in the final quarter of the year. The price index for gross domestic purchases rose at a 1.0% rate; the index had gone up 1.8% in the third quarter. The government&aposs price index for personal consumption also slowed to a 0.6% rate during the fourth quarter, down from 1.8% in the third quarter.
For the year 2003, the price index for gross domestic purchases rose 1.9%, a pick-up from 1.4% recorded in 2002
+DJ US GDP Rose At 4.0% Rate In 4th Qtr
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
January 30, 2004 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
*DJ Real Final Sales Rose At 3.4% In 4th Qtr
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
January 30, 2004 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
*DJ PCE Price Index Dn At 0.6% Rate In 4th Qtr
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
January 30, 2004 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
*DJ Domestic Purchases Price Index Dn at 1.0% Rate In 4Q
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
January 30, 2004 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
*DJ US GDP Rose 3.1% for the year 2003
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
January 30, 2004 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
=DJ DATA SNAP: US GDP Slows In 4Q; Economy Grows 3.1% In &apos03
==========================================================
Gross Domestic Product 4th 3rd 2nd Surprise: Yes !
Overall GDP Growth 4.0% 8.2% 3.1% Survey: +4.8% !
PCE Price Index 0.6% 1.8%r 0.5% Trend: Economy!
Rising !
=========================================================
By Elizabeth Price
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. output growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter from the heated pace of the previous period, but continued to show broadbased strength throughout the economy.
Fourth quarter gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced in the U.S., rose at a 4.0% annual rate, about half the unrevised 8.2% rate reported for the third quarter, the Commerce Department said Friday.
Solid contributions from personal consumption, exports, equipment and software, inventory investment and residential investment supported growth in the last quarter of the year, Commerce said. The strong finish brought annual GDP to a 3.1% advance for 2003.
Still, growth in the fourth quarter was slower than Wall Street had predicted. A Dow Jones Newswires-CNBC survey of 23 economists forecast growth of 4.8% for the quarter.
Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of economic activity, rose 2.6% in the fourth quarter, on top of 6.9% spending growth in the third quarter. Purchases of durable goods, items meant to last three years or more, increased 0.9%, after a 28% gain in the prior period. Non-durable purchases rose 4.4%, following the third quarter&aposs 7.3% rise.
Government spending rose 0.8% in the fourth quarter, compared with a 1.8% rise in the third quarter. Federal government spending increased by 0.7%, while state and local government spending climbed 0.9%.
Business investment rose 6.9% during the fourth quarter, slowing from a 12.8% advance in the third. Investment in non-residential structures fell 3.0% during the quarter, a sharper decline than the 1.8% decrease reported for the third quarter. Spending on equipment and software rose 10%, after the third quarter gain of 17.6%. Spending on housing rose 10.6%, after a 21.9% gain.
Overall private investment was up 12.4% in the fourth quarter, following a 14.8% gain in the third.
Businesses built inventories by $6.1 billion during the fourth quarter, following decreases of $9.1 billion and $4.5 billion in the prior two quarters.
Real final sales of domestic product - that is, GDP less the change in private inventories - rose at a 3.4% annual rate. Third-quarter real final sales climbed at an 8.3% annual rate.
Exports, supported by the weaker U.S. dollar and stronger demand abroad, climbed by 19.1% in the fourth quarter, while imports advanced by 11.3%.
The government report suggested inflation edged down in the final quarter of the year. The price index for gross domestic purchases rose at a 1.0% rate; the index had gone up 1.8% in the third quarter. The government&aposs price index for personal consumption also slowed to a 0.6% rate during the fourth quarter, down from 1.8% in the third quarter.
For the year 2003, the price index for gross domestic purchases rose 1.9%, a pick-up from 1.4% recorded in 2002
Melnibone - 30 Jan 2004 14:35 - 11 of 15
Hi Testex,
Sorry for late reply, been playing at packhorse for Mrs. Melnibone's
shopping. She usually has Friday off from work.
I've been quite cautious this January. As posted, I made a pig's ear
of the first weeks trading and have been carefully making it back and
going into profit again. The danger when you put a string of losing
decisions together is to abandon your strategy and try and 'win it back'
with clouded judgement and too big a position size.
Back on course now.
What you describe with positions running away from you, seems to be
the personal psychological battle we all fight every day. We're so
used to the market taking profit straight back that we get anxious
to take it whilst it's there.
The answer is to move a take profit stop up in line with the price
action. Stick to your rules and it takes the decision away from you.
The only problem I have with building up a dividend stake over a month
is that a lot can happen in a month. I would rather let the market
show me where it's going than anticipate that far ahead and maybe
take a 3% divi on a stock that drops 5% in a falling market.
But if it works for you, then go for it.
Melnibone.
Sorry for late reply, been playing at packhorse for Mrs. Melnibone's
shopping. She usually has Friday off from work.
I've been quite cautious this January. As posted, I made a pig's ear
of the first weeks trading and have been carefully making it back and
going into profit again. The danger when you put a string of losing
decisions together is to abandon your strategy and try and 'win it back'
with clouded judgement and too big a position size.
Back on course now.
What you describe with positions running away from you, seems to be
the personal psychological battle we all fight every day. We're so
used to the market taking profit straight back that we get anxious
to take it whilst it's there.
The answer is to move a take profit stop up in line with the price
action. Stick to your rules and it takes the decision away from you.
The only problem I have with building up a dividend stake over a month
is that a lot can happen in a month. I would rather let the market
show me where it's going than anticipate that far ahead and maybe
take a 3% divi on a stock that drops 5% in a falling market.
But if it works for you, then go for it.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 30 Jan 2004 15:12
- 12 of 15
I bought some STAN this morning for my long term portfolio (last lot bought 13 jan & sold 20 jan as showing 5% profit) as I am trying to keep some for the dividend (trouble is my gain keeps exceeding the div, so I don't hold!)
Fortunetly they dropped back again so I picked them up again. The results are due out the 18th February and they are on record as say that the figures are expected to exceed earlier estimates by a comfortable margin.
Fortunetly they dropped back again so I picked them up again. The results are due out the 18th February and they are on record as say that the figures are expected to exceed earlier estimates by a comfortable margin.
Melnibone - 30 Jan 2004 18:15 - 13 of 15
Glad I did my trading this morning, couldn't trade at all
this afternoon as unable to log in.
Tried the fix's as advised by the help desk but no joy.
In the end I was advised that my platform was probably
corrupted and I had to uninstall it and download a fresh
copy.
21Mb download later................
Finally back online and missed that nice drop.
Good luck with the new HBOS strategy Testex.
I'm watching STAN as well, little woman, that's why I did
an overnight scalp on it.
Can't decide if it's at the bottom of a trading range, or
trading in a new downtrend channel. That's the impression
I'm getting for a lot of charts at the moment, nothing is
really clear.
Still, makes life interesting, doesn't it, if it was too easy
everyone would be doing it and nobody would work anymore. :-))
Melnibone.
this afternoon as unable to log in.
Tried the fix's as advised by the help desk but no joy.
In the end I was advised that my platform was probably
corrupted and I had to uninstall it and download a fresh
copy.
21Mb download later................
Finally back online and missed that nice drop.
Good luck with the new HBOS strategy Testex.
I'm watching STAN as well, little woman, that's why I did
an overnight scalp on it.
Can't decide if it's at the bottom of a trading range, or
trading in a new downtrend channel. That's the impression
I'm getting for a lot of charts at the moment, nothing is
really clear.
Still, makes life interesting, doesn't it, if it was too easy
everyone would be doing it and nobody would work anymore. :-))
Melnibone.
ThePlayboy
- 30 Jan 2004 19:33
- 14 of 15
MONDAY FTSE PP
R2 4451
R1 4421
PP 4406
S1 4375
S2 4360
Fri close was below s1 after loosing 4.3pts in the auction! 2 day ftse chart targeting 4370 unless we get a brk out of the downtrend at 4405 to target 4420, all down to 10480 dow for direction imho!
MONDAY FUTURES PP
R2 4441
R1 4416
PP 4389
S1 4364
S2 4337
WEEKLY FTSE PP
R2 4484
R1 4437
PP 4414
S1 4367
S2 4344
Caught on the wrong side Fri long looking for short closing into weekend, instead got longs panicking closing and shorts comfortable to hold, a sign for next week? Major 10 month uptrend is now broken at 4420, ftse is looking a litte OS atm, so maybe some defensve by the bulls, but on the whole I,m quite bearish for next week, 10375 the level to watch on the dow to try and hold any longer term moves next week, feel we could test the weekly s2 at 4344 imho next week!
Have a good weekend!
R2 4451
R1 4421
PP 4406
S1 4375
S2 4360
Fri close was below s1 after loosing 4.3pts in the auction! 2 day ftse chart targeting 4370 unless we get a brk out of the downtrend at 4405 to target 4420, all down to 10480 dow for direction imho!
MONDAY FUTURES PP
R2 4441
R1 4416
PP 4389
S1 4364
S2 4337
WEEKLY FTSE PP
R2 4484
R1 4437
PP 4414
S1 4367
S2 4344
Caught on the wrong side Fri long looking for short closing into weekend, instead got longs panicking closing and shorts comfortable to hold, a sign for next week? Major 10 month uptrend is now broken at 4420, ftse is looking a litte OS atm, so maybe some defensve by the bulls, but on the whole I,m quite bearish for next week, 10375 the level to watch on the dow to try and hold any longer term moves next week, feel we could test the weekly s2 at 4344 imho next week!
Have a good weekend!
little woman
- 30 Jan 2004 20:16
- 15 of 15
Thanks PB
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