cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
skinny
- 30 Nov 2012 06:48
- 10013 of 21973
India’s GDP growth declines to 5.3% in July-Sept quarter
New Delhi: The Indian economy grew by 5.3 percent in the July-September period of the current financial year (2012-13), pulled down by poor performance of manufacturing and agriculture sectors, showing persistent signs of slowdown.
The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 6.7 percent in the same period of last fiscal.
It had grown by 5.5 percent in the first quarter (April-June) of 2012-13.
Toya
- 30 Nov 2012 08:24
- 10014 of 21973
Well I'm glad I stayed out of it yesterday, while not at my screen - having read all your comments! I would surely have lost money on the DOW. Can't watch much of today either, but am tempted just to set a short FTSE from 5900
cynic
- 30 Nov 2012 08:44
- 10015 of 21973
for sure there will be bad days, but the trend now looks to have reversed from its previous gloom
Stan
- 30 Nov 2012 08:50
- 10016 of 21973
Further to that Indian report, I did hear that their traditional Gold buying is down this year because of currency issues in India.
Toya
- 30 Nov 2012 08:52
- 10017 of 21973
Re DOW:
I reckon we should see a strong upward trend when the US Fiscal Cliff is resolved.
However: I keep reading about the UK banks and their 'black holes' - and that would hold back growth in this country. Hence, we could see the DOW pulling away and leaving the FTSE behind.
cynic
- 30 Nov 2012 09:04
- 10018 of 21973
and of course resolved it will be, though it is equally certain that there'll be some tough inside fighting in the meantime
with regard to ftse, it would be worth checking the composition of the components .... memory tells me that it is very top-heavy with mining and resource stocks
hilary
- 30 Nov 2012 09:10
- 10019 of 21973
Guys,
Seriously, I think you're worrying too much about the fiscal cliff. The market is looking upon it as large-scale game of brinkmanship.
It's Europe that the market is focussing on atm. And don't forget it's month end today.
More Draghi: Sees relative stabilisation of market conditions
Speaking at conference in Paris
ECB’s OMT plan addresses tail risks
Some banks in stressed countries regained mkt access
Lagarde: Correction of euro zone’s imbalances is far from over
Govts should give more weight to structural deficit targets than nominal deficits
Pace of fiscal consolidation in Europe should remain reasonable so as not to affect growth (and for my next trick)
More Schaeuble: Failure to pass Greek aid would hit EU, beyond
Greek economic transformation like ex-east bloc
Greece is increasing its competitiveness
More Greek wage flexibility is helping economy
Can’t blame Greece’s woes on reform adjustments
Bond buyback will shrink debt load significantly
Greece only gets aid if it continues reforms
Additional measures may be EU development aid
Other future Greek measure could be interest cut
Speculation of a debt cut would fuel instability
A Greek default could lead to total euro breakup
Goal is that Greece can one day pay its own debt
Greece can only be helped on step-by-step basis
Nobody profits more from EU than Germany
IMF’s Lagarde: European economy is fragile
Hopes ECB bond purchases can be activated in the near term
Financial markets still fragmented
Strong recession in the Eurozone periphery is hurting the core
ESM and OMT should help prevent contagion
Banking union is a priority in IMF’s opinion, followed by greater budgetary coordination
Favours ECB taking banking supervisory role
Schaeuble: First successes seen in Greece rescue
Still a long way to go for Greece
Greece crisis can’t be resolved in a ‘few years’
Greece govt is making big effort for reforms
Swiss November KOF falls to 1.50
Lowest reading for 4 months
Spanish November Flash CPI 2.9% y/y
Toya
- 30 Nov 2012 09:40
- 10020 of 21973
Cynic: yes, that's a good point.
Hilary: agree, loads of factors out there, but in the immediate term (as in day-to-day trading) the markets, including European, are showing knee-jerk reactions any time a US politician mentions the fiscal cliff - just something to bear in mind for short-term trading
skinny
- 30 Nov 2012 10:00
- 10022 of 21973
EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 2.2% consensus 2.4% previous 2.5%
EUR Unemployment Rate 11.7% consensus 11.7% previous 11.6%
EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m -0.2% consensus 0.0% previous 0.0%
hilary
- 30 Nov 2012 10:01
- 10023 of 21973
Toya,
CBO says US has debt limit room until at least mid-Feb. So that's when the fiscal cliff solution will come. There were other things moving the market yesterday. Boehner's boner only had minimal effect.
cynic
- 30 Nov 2012 10:05
- 10024 of 21973
are "we" too focused on europe and how its travails will affect the markets? ...... the european economies have been dire for the last 2/3 years ..... however, as i post regularly, economies in usa and far east are most assuredly picking up, and even india, which has certainly gone through some tough times of late (very weak rupee), is still forecasting growth of 5.3%
skinny
- 30 Nov 2012 13:16
- 10025 of 21973
skinny
- 30 Nov 2012 13:31
- 10026 of 21973
CAD GDP m/m 0.0% consensus 0.1% previous -0.1%
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% consensus 0.2% previous 0.1%
USD Personal Spending m/m -0.2% consensus 0.1% previous 0.8%
USD Personal Income m/m 0.0% consensus 0.2% previous 0.4%
Toya
- 30 Nov 2012 13:34
- 10027 of 21973
Thanks for for the pix Skinny!
cynic
- 30 Nov 2012 15:58
- 10028 of 21973
it's a bit of "whore's drawers" today, but it being friday, it's not too surprising with so much mixed data and info floating about
Balerboy
- 30 Nov 2012 19:15
- 10029 of 21973
so whats the prognosis for next week then boys and girls.,.
edit: I'll copy and paste it back at the end of the week and see who's savvy if more than one put in their penny worth.,.
bhunt1910
- 30 Nov 2012 19:17
- 10030 of 21973
You guys are far too technical for me. I am just following the long term trend line and moving my SL up gradually to protect what is becoming a significant profit - which I dont want to loose. Still long from 5790 with a SL of 5825
Toya
- 01 Dec 2012 10:57
- 10031 of 21973
Bhunt: well done!
Something from Reuters (and this will sound very boring!), to answer BB's poser:
"We have a week with a lot of economic data, and obviously most of the economic data is going to reflect the effects of Sandy, and that might be a little bit negative for the market next week, but most of that is already expected – the main focus remains the fiscal cliff," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital in New York.
'On Wednesday, the S&P 500 gained more than 20 points from its intraday low after House Speaker John Boehner said he was optimistic that a budget deal to avoid big spending cuts and tax hikes could be worked out. The next day, more pessimistic comments from Boehner, an Ohio Republican, briefly wiped out the day's gains in stocks.
"It’s unusual to end up with one variable in this industry, it’s unusual to have a single bullet that is the causal factor effect, and you are sitting here for the next maybe two weeks or more, on that kind of condition," said Sandy Lincoln, chief market strategist at BMO Asset Management U.S. in Chicago. "And that is what is grabbing the markets."
So: as I've cautioned here before: listen to the US politicians for intraday trading!
I reckon the week ahead will be choppy.
Longer term though, one has to assume that a deal will be done of course - how could they not!?
hilary
- 03 Dec 2012 07:14
- 10032 of 21973
Toya,
I'm sorry if I've confused you (or anybody else for that matter) if you think I've said that you should ignore the fiscal cliff.
What I'm trying to say is that the fiscal cliff does impact the market, but it isn't the largest single factor which has been moving the markets in recent times. However, reading down through the thread posts, it struck me that too much focus was being put on the fiscal cliff, whilst the largest single factor which has moved the markets recently (Japanese elections and Shinzo Abe talking about a financial nuclear bomb) was being almost totally ignored on the thread.
The other thing to bear in mind about reading press releases (like the one above) which quote US fund managers and traders is that most Americans think that the world stops when you reach the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. If you ask them anything about Japan or Europe they won't have a clue what you're babbling on about.