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FTSE + FTSE 250 - consider trading (FTSE)     

cynic - 20 Oct 2007 12:12

rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

Seymour Clearly - 04 Dec 2012 09:14 - 10060 of 21973

And from that speech, referring to the Olympics: Boris: "The only piece of transport infrastructure to malfunction was a zipwire."

Shortie - 04 Dec 2012 09:45 - 10061 of 21973

Well a FTSE100 rise to over 6200+ would require a weekly close above 5917. Market sentiment may have changed but I doubt the FTSE has the legs at the moment to reach such a level.

cynic - 04 Dec 2012 11:27 - 10062 of 21973

fair comment, and for sure a break through the surprisingly stubborn 5900 barrier is the short term objective to watch

Shortie - 04 Dec 2012 12:00 - 10063 of 21973

By Ilona Billington LONDON--Activity in the U.K.'s construction sector contracted in November after a minor pickup a month earlier, as new business slumped, confidence plummeted and firms cut staff at the fastest pace in almost two years, a survey showed Tuesday. And, in a further blow to Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne's growth plans, which included kickstarting the economy with house building, the report also shows that residential construction has fallen for a sixth straight month in November. The monthly construction purchasing managers index from data firm Markit and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply fell to 49.3 in November from October's 50.9. "A protracted decline in workloads, the double-dip U.K. recession and shrinking investment spending has made 2012 a year to forget for the construction sector," said Tim Moore, Markit's senior economist. "November's PMI survey suggests that construction output has yet to hit rock bottom." The survey highlights just how tough it is for the construction sector to maintain a sustainable recovery path as the economy stutters and consumer confidence has been weak for most of the year. New orders were the lowest since April 2009, business confidence the weakest since December 2008 while firms cut staff at the fastest pace since December 2010. Mr. Osborne has attempted to boost the residential construction sector in particular by offering a range of government guaranteed mortgages for newly built property. While those schemes have met with some success, the underlying economic weakness, wary consumers and businesses unwilling to invest substantially have all combined to keep activity and growth in the key sector muted. "Parallels to darker days of the economic crisis can be seen in the construction sector, which is under pressure from all sides," said David Noble, chief executive officer at the CIPS. "Businesses are now set for a bitter end to 2012 with little hope of respite in the New Year.

Shortie - 04 Dec 2012 12:53 - 10064 of 21973

MONEY TALKS: George Osborne's Budget Tribulations

--The U.K. Treasury is stuck between big deficits and slow growth --It will be hard to introduce more austerity --But fear of a bond crisis will constrain spending --And what spending there is might end up being focused on infrastructure By Alen Mattich The British budget has become a semi-annual process. The official one comes in the spring. But there's also a not so mini version around now. And this year's, due Wednesday, may be less mini than most. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has to deal with below-target growth and above-target deficits and no sign that either will return to stable trend anytime soon. Keynesians tell him not to worry about the deficit and to use official borrowing to get growth going. Austerians tell him that's the road to disaster. He's likely to listen to both. Half way through a five-year parliamentary term, the economy hasn't been going Mr. Osborne's way. His initial promises of austerity were built on the premise that without a convincing program of fiscal probity, bond investors would abandon the U.K. market, leaving the country in much the same position as Greece. Actual austerity was for the future, once the economy started to recover. But any concerted recovery failed to come and instead the U.K. has struggled to post any meaningful growth, in spite of government deficits that have averaged around 7.5% of GDP since 2008, some of the biggest in the developed world. Fiscal tightening has largely been an illusion. Insofar as taxes have gone up, so too has spending. Keynesians argue that talk of austerity has had a chilling effect on growth, as have increases in consumption taxes. The U.K. has underperformed the U.S. because it has not expanded fiscal spending by as much. Mr. Osborne may relent on capital spending--a drop in which has been among the biggest sources of fiscal restraint, while weak construction spending has been a major drag on growth. After all, historically-low interest rates make it easy for the government to borrow for long-term projects. But there are good reasons for the Chancellor to remain worried about the state of British public-sector finances. Although bond investors remain indulgent now, there's no telling how they'll be tomorrow. And that's a problem because the U.K. has one of the world's biggest primary deficits--which is to say the gap between spending and tax revenue not including the cost of financing past borrowings. The U.K.'s is 5.6% of GDP for 2012, according to the International Monetary Fund, a proportion only exceeded by the U.S. and Japan among developed countries. By contrast, among the euro zone's most troubled economies, Spain's primary deficit is 4.5% of GDP, Ireland's 4.4%, and Greece's a mere 1.7%, while Italy is running a primary surplus worth 2.6% of GDP this year. Should bond investors suddenly turn their backs on the U.K. government, that 5.6% financing gap would trigger an immediate and deep economic crisis. Is it likely to happen? No, say the Keynesians. That's because a global excess of savings, low underlying inflation risks and a need for safe-haven security will keep the money flowing. Just look at Japan. But Japan may be a bad example. Yes, it has managed to run huge annual deficits for two decades and now has a total debt load of 237% of GDP and is expected to breach 250% later this decade. But as domestic savings dry up, the government will have to plug its hole from somewhere else. The opposition Liberal Democratic Party is threatening to force the Bank of Japan into outright debt monetization. If this happens, Japan will suffer a very big crisis indeed. And investors will panic about other economies with similar debt dynamics. Like the U.K.

Toya - 04 Dec 2012 17:19 - 10065 of 21973

Thanks for all that info Shortie!

hilary - 04 Dec 2012 17:29 - 10066 of 21973

USDJPY is moving perilously close to support from 28th Nov. Last week's CoT data showed that the world and his wife are already short the Yen, so it could be that there isn't much fresh money left for further Yen shorts and you'll see a raft of short covering if 81.60 goes.

There are rumoured bids at 81.50 ,but Citi is talking about a full-cent drop if the above mentioned support goes. If that happens, I would expect US indices to follow the USDJPY down.

EURJPY and GBPJPY are also both a bit flakey, but nowhere near the 28th's lows yet and not as weak as the USD imo.

Toya - 04 Dec 2012 20:55 - 10067 of 21973

Thanks Hilary - interesting observation, following on from what you posted a couple of days ago.

cynic - 05 Dec 2012 08:12 - 10068 of 21973

as i'm off to miami at lunchtime (biz of course!!), i have just banked a useful profit on ftse as 5900 is being challenged again but may not hold it at close - we'll see

Toya - 05 Dec 2012 08:39 - 10069 of 21973

I've just gone short at 5900. Happy hols Cynic!

cynic - 05 Dec 2012 08:44 - 10070 of 21973

it's one of my specialist conferences, but i dare say i'll find some time to go to the golf course! .... not back until next friday, but i'll try to plague you all from afar

Toya - 05 Dec 2012 13:29 - 10071 of 21973

US private sector employment increased by 118,000 jobs from October to November, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report.

Forecast was for between 125,000 and 127,000 according to a couple of reports I've seen

Stan - 05 Dec 2012 13:47 - 10072 of 21973

Non-Farm this Friday remember.

Toya - 05 Dec 2012 14:04 - 10073 of 21973

yes - thanks Stan!

cynic - 06 Dec 2012 02:01 - 10074 of 21973

i wonder why AAPL took a beating today ..... glad i sold hald and banked a decent profit the other day

Toya - 06 Dec 2012 08:10 - 10075 of 21973

Glad you got out of it Cynic - was a bit worried when I read yesterday how AAPL is taking a hammering - thought to be due to fears of likely competition

Toya - 06 Dec 2012 08:18 - 10076 of 21973

Re AAPL: - From Marketwatch.com
Several factors are believed to be factoring in the sell-off, including technical concerns, worries about the health of the economy and tomorrow’s court hearing in its on-going battle with archrival Samsung in a California federal court...

Another factor was a report from a trade paper in Taiwan that says Apple may be cutting down parts orders for the iPhone 5 for the March quarter. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said in a note to clients that the report may be “misinterpreted,” adding that such a decline may be expected coming off a launch quarter “and do not believe it is an indication of how units might trend in March.”

Shortie - 06 Dec 2012 09:34 - 10077 of 21973

5912.3 short applied to FTSE

Shortie - 06 Dec 2012 09:37 - 10078 of 21973

UK Sep Global Goods Trade Bal Unrevised At Deficit GBP8.4B
UK Oct Global Goods Trade Bal Forecast At Deficit GBP8.65B
UK Sep Non-EU Trade Deficit GBP3.9B Rev Vs Deficit GBP4.0B
UK Oct Adj Global Goods Trade Deficit GBP9.5B
UK Oct Adj Non-EU Trade Deficit GBP4.5B

Shortie - 06 Dec 2012 10:12 - 10079 of 21973

13046.5 Wall St short applied
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