Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Daisy are you still emall address @sky.com

Hils, hope you got out for not too much damage.

Indeedy Doris, and I've just seen your email. My spam detector can be a bit overzealous sometimes.

I do have one suggestion for you. I'll try to get back to you either later today or in the morning.

Well the air was blue for a minute or two, Foxey, but they took it after about 4 requotes.

Shame, I was long EurUsd, and was in profit at one point ... now do I go short?!

edit - perhaps a bit late

Futures traders see a more than 90 percent chance of a half- point reduction in the benchmark interest rate at or before the Federal Open Market Committee's next meeting Oct. 28-29. That's an increase from 32 percent odds a week ago.

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar is set for another step higher next week after hitting a 13-month peak against the euro Friday, but the greenback's moves will remain at the whim of fearful investors.

The U.S. currency isn't rising because traders are betting on a stronger U.S. economic outlook in the midst of a global slowdown. The nation may already be in recession, according to several economists, and currency traders are hesitant to take any fundamental positions in this frenzied market.

Rather, the dollar is getting shoved to fresh highs - including a one-year high against the Brazilian real and a three-week high against the U.K. pound Thursday - by the massive liquidation of emerging market investments and the conversion of other currency holdings into dollars to feed cash demands. Analysts also point to a surge in Federal Reserve custody holdings, particularly Treasurys, by foreign official and international accounts in the latest money supply data.

Top market-maker banks say most foreign exchange business is now about carrying out customer orders. Those orders have reached such levels of intensity that currency trading platforms have reported record forex market volumes, despite almost zero trading interest at banks.

That dollar demand is causing the greenback's exchange rate to rise against most major counterparts - not just in spite of the weak U.S. economic outlook, but because of those very fears of recession.

"The client flow is very strong," said Hans Redeker, global head of foreign exchange strategy at BNP Paribas, "due to the liquidation out of existing assets."

David Woo, global head of foreign exchange strategy in London, says risk aversion, plummeting U.S. stocks and market uncertainty are perhaps the best assets the dollar now has.

In fact, if the government's financial market rescue plan fails to stabilize markets, analysts forecast that the dollar will do well against European rivals and emerging market currencies.

"[There] will be further equity repatriations back to the U.S. from emerging markets, the oil price will continue its decline, [the] U.S. household saving rate is likely to rise significantly, and other central banks will be forced to cut interest rates," said Woo. This will likely bolster the U.S. balance-of-payments position, which is a dollar positive, he said.

By contrast, the success of the government's rescue plan will result in total disaster for the U.S. currency, many analysts say.

But by next week, financial market risk aversion and money market strains are unlikely to be resolved. Markets still appear undecided about whether the bailout plan will work. The upshot will be a stronger dollar against the euro, with more rangebound trading against the yen.

The euro is seen trading from Friday's intraday high of $1.3905 towards $1.3300. Against the yen, the dollar will likely stay near Y104.0 and struggle to rise above Y106.0, according to analysts.

Friday afternoon in in New York, the euro was at $1.3818, up from $1.3796 late Thursday. The dollar was at Y105.94, up from Y105.21, according to EBS. The euro was at Y146.33, up from Y145.14. The U.K. pound was at $1.7769, up from $1.7627, and the dollar was at CHF1.1297, down from CHF1.1374 Thursday.

"The yen does still behave as a safe-haven currency," said Tom Fitzpatrick, global head of currency strategy at Citigroup in New York. "You don't have the same stresses in the Japanese system," he said, and very low interest rates leave limited space for them to go lower.

It is "feasible," said Fitzpatrick, for the dollar to decline to Y102.0 on the less-risky status of Japan's economy and the potential for additional U.S. equity market losses.

The dollar is also supported in the near term on fears of a protracted euro-zone slowdown and divisiveness among European policy makers.

"What's becoming obvious is the European currency does not have a structure behind it as the United States does," said Fitzpatrick.

"The U.S. dollar has the Fed, Treasury, government bonds, all centralized under a federal umbrella," he said. "In Europe, there are different decisions being made in different countries."

That challenges the ability of euro-zone monetary leaders to tackle financial market woes with the same force as U.S. leaders.

In addition, the European Central Bank said Thursday after leaving its key lending rate unchanged that inflation risks have declined, indicating to market watchers that the bank is closer to cutting interest rates - a euro negative.

The Bank of England meets next week, and market watchers say they wouldn't be surprised if the Monetary Policy Committee votes to cut rates considering the slew of recent disappointing data. That would leave the U.K. pound at even-greater risk.

Carry trade RIP

Jamie says ......

In 1998, during the LTCM meltdown, USD/JPY fell from 136 to 111 in one day. The Fed came in for the BOJ that day and bought USD/JPY. Todays episode has not reached that level yet, but a little well-timed intervention could perhaps steady all the markets. DO NOT BE SHORT USD/JPY DOWN HERE!

Jamie also says ........

Dealers fear the potential for the BOJ to intervene but they have no fear of intervention from the ECB. In this environment, a weaker Euro is a godsend for Europe.

Who is Jamie ???

he's that chef who does school dinners!

That's okay then.

I feel happier knowing that I'm reading commentary from someone who is more qualified than the so called city experts :O)

'Toad in the Hole' or as they call it in the City 'Darling up shit creek'




toad in the hole
Serves 4
Mix the batter ingredients together, and put to one side. I like the batter to go huge so the key thing is to have an appropriately-sized baking tin – the thinner the better – as we need to get the oil smoking hot.

Put 1cm/just under ½ inch of sunflower oil into a baking tin, then place this on the middle shelf of your oven at its highest setting (240–250ºC/475ºF/gas 9). Place a larger tray underneath it to catch any oil that overflows from the tin while cooking. When the oil is very hot, add your sausages. Keep your eye on them and allow them to colour until lightly golden.

At this point, take the tin out of the oven, being very careful, and pour your batter over the sausages. Throw a couple of sprigs of rosemary into the batter. It will bubble and possibly even spit a little, so carefully put the tin back in the oven, and close the door. Don't open it for at least 20 minutes, as Yorkshire puddings can be a bit temperamental when rising. Remove from the oven when golden and crisp.

For the onion gravy, simply fry off your onions and garlic in the butter on a medium heat for about 5 minutes until they go sweet and translucent. You could add a little thyme or rosemary if you like. Add the balsamic vinegar and allow it to cook down by half. At this point, I do cheat a little and add a stock cube or powder. You can get some good ones in the supermarkets now that aren't full of rubbish. Sprinkle this in and add a little water. Allow to simmer and you'll have a really tasty onion gravy. Serve at the table with your Toad in the Hole, mashed potatoes, greens and baked beans or maybe a green salad if you're feeling a little guilty!

this made me smile, twin headlines on DailyFX

US Dollar Loses Most Against Japanese Yen in 10 Years
Monday, 06 October 2008 15:01:12 GMT

Japanese Yen Advances The Most Since 1998
Monday, 06 October 2008 14:32:29 GMT

Nothing like making 2 stories out of one !!!

Foxey,

That's Jamie Coleman, ex of Reuters FX Hub. I'll be mailing you over the next few days, so will let you have a link.

I preferred Bullie's version. And recipe.

Just for DelBoy ....



James Bullard, Bullard.
Better than Frank Lampard.
Better than Steve Gerrard.
James Bullard, Bullard.

He doesn't think that rate cuts are the answer either. He doesn't have a vote though.

Dezza's probably thinking that's a lot of Bullards :o)

How sweet of you to think of me, Hil. And he's right, of course, central bank rates just aren't the issue. Unfortunately, it's the only knob they've got to twiddle, so they keep wanting to twiddle it. As Mr Bullard doesn't get to twiddle it, he's free to speak the deadly truth.