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Morning all

Good Morning

EUR/USD looks to be breaking from the current downtrend to the upside atm. This could pull Cable up with it. Cable is still in a downtrend though which may take a day or two to break before you see any real gains on the long tack.

Agree Hilary Euro well bid this am...with cable being the poor relation

Wholesale prices up 0.5% in March, up 0.2 ex food and energy; Jobless claims fall to 353,000 in latest week.

Cable strugling over 17720

17710 seems to be a key level for a tug of war between the bulls and the bears. I suspect that there are quite a few short stop losses positioned about 15 pips above this level. If the resistance selling can be overcome and the stops are triggered, we could see a spike up.

Long EURUSD @ 1.1865

If you draw a line from the 21st Low to the Low of today and the 20th high to the 21st high this forms a wedge.

The wedge was broken at 1.1890 this afternoon.

Also looking at the weekly chart its looking oversold. Im targeting 1.2050+

I hope...

General Market Conditions

The rejection of the Dollar's rally at 1.1775 Euro, 1.3192 Swissie and 1.7624 Pound have all produced a pullback that threatens the respective resistance levels at 1.1915-35, 1.3040-50 and 1.7815-35. On the face of things this could be a group of expanded flat corrections and as long as the pullback levels hold we should see resumption of the Dollar uptrend. However, as we went through the analysis this morning we were once again struck by the rather erratic price structure in the Dollar's rise which has caused us some concern. For now we retain a cautious bullish outlook but be aware that any break through the Dollar support levels could change the picture quite strongly and we would then look for a deeper medium term pullback. Thus for today, to be prudent, watch levels and trade with breaks. Against the Japanese Yen we are mixed and will watch for breaks here also. Have a great weekend.

GBPUSD

Price: 1.7750
Day View
Resistance: 1.7765 1.7790 1.7815 1.7835

Support: 1.7730 1.7710 1.7680 1.7660



Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks

Bullish: We have seen a recovery from 1.7624 which actually looks progressive. However we still need to see break of 1.7815-35 and if this resistance breaks then we would expect to see a stronger move higher. Once through next resistance is at 1.7890 and then 1.7940.



Bearish: The recovery from 1.7624 has been firm. However, while 1.7815-35 holds there still remains risk of a move down through 1.7710 towards 1.7660-80. Break of this support is required to confirm stronger losses down trhough 1.7624 to 1.7570 and 1.7445.





Week View
Resistance: 1.7840 1.7900 1.7980 1.8065

Support: 1.7625 1.7595 1.7445 1.7320



Losses have taken price further below the 4-hour Pivot Cloud but stalled at 1.7624. Schaff Trend Cycle is now rising but high while FXS-RSI is beginning to rise from oversold territory. We have reviewed the larger wave structure and we a re slightly concerned at the structure of the decline that does have potential to be terminal. Thus watch the 1.7835 area closely for any break would reverse the downtrend.



Bullish: Key resistance is at 1.7835-40 and any break above here would threaten a longer term recovery. First resistance is at 1.7890 and then 1.7940 but we would look for an eventual move back to 1.8145.



Bearish: The failure at 1.7624 was unexpected and we can only retain a bearish outlook while 1.7835 holds. While this does and we see reversal lower through 1.7660 we would feel more confident of the original projection of a strong decline down to 1.7570 and 1.7445. Further support is seen at 1.7320.



Month View
(Updated 19th April)

Resistance: 1.8300 1.8605 1.8875 1.9025

Support: 1.7650 1.7165 1.6905 1.6565



The move lower has met with a choppy start but we feel that we should now see losses resume and expect to see progress to the next support at 1.7650 this week. From there we should see a correction develop but the coming 4-6 weeks looks bearish towards 1.7165.

small cable long on current uptick

Let it run, hodgins. Imo, of course.

Morning All,

Hilary, Just checking out the FX site and noticed your charts and commentary on cable.

Is it your own? if not, where is it from? as looks great stuff!

I am interested in Euro/USD. Are there similar charts and commentaries?

Hi 2Abbey,

Those views aren't my own. This is the link to them. It's from a website called FX Strategy. I've got to re-iterate that I don't always share their views and you also need to remember that they're generally made at around 11pm each night and things sometimes look a little different come 7am.

pound happy again, I admit to running fairly tight "gain lock"

hodgins,

At the possible risk of sounding a bit condescending, may I make just one suggestion?

If you think that the market is turning or has turned, set your initial stop loss on a move below the last low or above the last high as may be appropriate.

In the case of cable, the last low was yesterday at 17625. Then simply run the trade for a couple of days or more until it forms a higher low and then draw a rising line to connect the two lows and use a break of this line as a stop loss. It may mean that you need to downsize your position if you are scared of taking a big hit. That way, I promise you though, you'll make the really big profits.

Thanks Hilary,

Looks to be a subscription site. Take your point about the update being at 11pm etc. Plenty of moves since then!

Hilary, many thanks for your thoughts. My problem as ever is conviction of my thoughts/what I see.
Saxo bank commentary actually very bearish today on all major currencies against US dollar

hodgins,

If conviction is a worry, turn the screens off and go shopping/walk the dog/go for a swim. You might end up with a pleasant surprise upon your return.

:o)

Re Saxo, John Hardy was saying that he saw the possibility of a rise in Cable with position squaring ahead of G7.

bought Cable 1.7665

went for a bike ride, lopped the rest of a tree, sat in the sun and picked up the children.
Long pound again and lets hope they settle up ahead of the G7 meet