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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Seymour Clearly - 22 Jan 2009 09:19 - 10138 of 11056

It's hard to disagree with him Falco!

From another site, late last night:

Markets are putting in a massive reversal today, led by the dollar index which sky-rocket to its highest levels since early December only to reverse course and put in a low lower than yesterday on the daily charts, an outside day to technicians. Coming at a top, outside days can be especially cataclysmic. Note, there is is a gap on the USD index chart that could be filled in tonight, taking the pair from around 85.98 to 85.50 if filled.

EUR/USD, cable, EUR/JPYtheyve all seen massive shifts in fortune this afternoon as have many of the asset markets. With any luck, risk aversion will melt away and well all have retirement accounts worth owning again. Hope and change!

Falcothou - 25 Jan 2009 09:08 - 10139 of 11056

A Sterling bull...(quite a rare species)
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article5580642.ece

hilary - 26 Jan 2009 15:35 - 10140 of 11056

Why is the ECB supporting the euro? Where there’s smoke there’s fire


For the second day running we’ve heard reports of members of the Eurosystem of central banks protecting the euro. Friday they were rumored to have bought EUR/USD in the 1.2850 area and today when prices returned to that level they were rumored to have called around and “checked rates”, letting banks know that they were snooping around.

Why would a “country” that is dependent on exports try and shore up its currency amid a global economic slowdown? Shouldn’t they let the euro fall as far as it can? In ordinary circumstances, yes. But these are anything but ordinary circumstances. It looks as though the ECB is trying to avoid a Lehman-style run on the euro. In the Lehman case, investors would short the stock and buy the credit default swaps. In the euro case you would sell the currency and sell the bonds of the weak European credits like Greece (which yields over 300 bp over Germany today) and Spain.

By supporting the currency, they are trying to paper over the very severe crisis in European credit markets. My guess is that this may work for a few days, but the longer-term result will be to alert the market that where there is smoke, often there is fire. This one bears close watching.

Falcothou - 26 Jan 2009 16:07 - 10141 of 11056

Which is the best pair re. shorting it...yen/usd?

hilary - 26 Jan 2009 16:15 - 10142 of 11056

That will very much depend upon the diameter of your gonads, Falcothou.

But whichever one you chose, I'd wait until it starts falling first. This has the makings of an up week for the time being.

:o)

Falcothou - 26 Jan 2009 16:26 - 10143 of 11056

Diameter in nanometers when it comes to forex, so go for the steady eddy

hilary - 26 Jan 2009 16:31 - 10144 of 11056

For mouseticles it'll be chunnel then.

Falcothou - 26 Jan 2009 16:37 - 10145 of 11056

Ah yes my old friend eur/gbp better for the ticker!

Falcothou - 26 Jan 2009 16:37 - 10146 of 11056

Ah yes my old friend eur/gbp better for the ticker!

chocolat - 26 Jan 2009 16:42 - 10147 of 11056

You can say that again, Falcothou.
Flavour of the month for me :o)

Edit: oh blimey you did :)

hilary - 26 Jan 2009 16:47 - 10148 of 11056

Fwiw, I think it'll take a German bank and/or a German car manufacturer to say they're in sh!t before the Euro really starts to sell.

I know Greek Eurobonds are off 300bp against their German equivalents, but nobody cares about the Greeks, the Spanish or the Irish for that matter. I also know that the French wine producers can't shift their stocks, but nobody cares about the French either. This is all about Germany and history shows that it normally takes years before they decide to surrender.

Spaceman - 26 Jan 2009 16:51 - 10149 of 11056

D, just sent you a PM.

chocolat - 26 Jan 2009 16:51 - 10150 of 11056

Iceland's government falls

What d'you reckon are the chances Hiltops ...
perlease :)

hilary - 26 Jan 2009 16:54 - 10151 of 11056

........ of Gordon falling over his fat, Chocopops?

chocolat - 26 Jan 2009 17:19 - 10152 of 11056

No carrots for him, Hiltops - just heaps of neeps.

Ta, Timbo - just chucked one back.

Seymour Clearly - 26 Jan 2009 21:51 - 10153 of 11056

Pound strengthens against dollar but Jim Rogers predicts further falls

Seymour Clearly - 26 Jan 2009 21:51 - 10154 of 11056

edit - fat finger syndrome

chocolat - 26 Jan 2009 22:04 - 10155 of 11056

Dontcha just lerve this Rogerism:

They wouldn't be politicians if they knew what they were doing.

MightyMicro - 26 Jan 2009 22:09 - 10156 of 11056

I made the mistake of mentioning Jim Rogers to a buddy of mine (Director of Precious Metals at a bank in the city) on Saturday. It transpired that he did not have an exalted opinion of Mr Rogers. Broadly similar to his opinion of Mr Brown, as it happened.

chocolat - 27 Jan 2009 11:05 - 10157 of 11056

Don't stop what you're doing Hiltops.
But I think summat's up with the chart thingie in the header - at least cable and geppy from what I can see.
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