CC
- 30 Aug 2015 11:57
I thought it might be good to share something about my objectives and my investing style. I hope you find it of interest and generates some discussion as I think Moneyam needs something more at the moment.
I work full time so I’m an investor now. In general I do have time to check the markets during the day but there are days when I’m in meetings for hours on end and it’s not appropriate. This works well for me as stops me over-trading. I suspect I would make less if I sat at a computer all day trying to invest.
Please feel free to discuss you trading style and reflect on how I could improve what I do.
I have two pots. The first pot is my SIPP and I therefore consider I must invest this with extreme caution. I consider a return of 5-10% as acceptable and any more as a bonus. The second pot is my trading pot where I take more risk. I am looking for 10+% plus a year from this. I only invest in UK equities. I no longer trade CFD’s or spreadbets due to the nature of my job, although many years ago I made a living day-trading.
My performance over the last 6 years is as follows:
2010 -0.3%
2011 -34.8% (too little diversification, bad timing and not very pleasant)
2012 +70.7% (umm – too little diversification –just got the timing wrong on the previous years purchases)
2013 +36.8% (umm – still too little diversification but what do you do when you’re in the right trades??)
2014 +5.5% (diversification getting better but my biggest share-holding hurt me badly)
2015 +5.5% so far
I have a very simple trading style. My primary objective is to sell equities when Ftse is high and buy when it is low i.e. I choose my entry and exit point depending on whether Ftse is overbought or oversold. The choice of share is secondary.
I often buy stocks in a clear downtrend on chart support points when Ftse is beaten up on the premise that Ftse will turn up in a short time frame setting up a bounce for the stock. These stocks will generally also have attracted me because of fundamentals, dividends or I believe they are significantly oversold. I also like recovery stories with long circulating bid rumours. Sometimes I buy stocks after research leads me to believe the share is significantly undervalued – this can be very profitable but usually a great amount of patience is required.
So, to explain in more detail this year as Ftse moved up early in the year I started selling heavily as Ftse reached 6700. By the time it reached its peak I was 91% in cash. As it headed back down again in June I started buying again at 6700 and by the end of June as Ftse was around 6500 I was 95% invested. Clearly I haven’t called this that well this year based on the evidence but I’m comfortable about it as doing something was better than doing nothing. Ftse is down 3.8% year to date and I’m up 5.5%. I suspect most people would be pretty happy with that – I am.
Here is my portfolio. It’s quite unbalanced and deliberately so. It breaks a load of rules with regard to diversification
24.3% - Sorry but I can’t share this stock with you yet as it’s not that liquid and I’m still acquiring stock. I’ve done my research and honesty believe a doubling of share price in three years would be a really poor outcome.
14.8% RBS. Most of these I have acquired between 337 and 362 although I have a few from 307. Already sold a few from 307 last week and if I can get somewhere between 339 and 342 next week they will be gone too. Earlier in the year they were trading at 400 and there were no sellers in sight as it trudged up day after day from 380 to 400. I’m of the view that this will come back over time as the government require the banks to be strong and make profits so we don’t have another crisis. I intend to hold all of these for a while (except for the few I’m selling next week) and start off-loading around 385 and see what happens from there
8.3% RDSB. Like many PI’s I’ve got drawn in by the dividend and most of these were bought between 1845 and 2025. I have a few at 1598 from last week which I honestly thought would be far higher given the rise in oil this week. I think oil has a bit higher to run yet and I’m looking to sell the ones from 1598 soon as I’ve got a few too many. Not sure what to do about the rest but the dividend of around 6% helps.
6.3% VSVS. Provides products to the steel industry. I’m in this as I think there is/will be global move away from concrete to steel due to construction costs and environmental issues. I bought these a few months ago and I’m a few percent down at the moment which is pleasing given general state of Ftse. The share register is interesting and the price activity over the last few weeks intrigues me and I have a “feeling in my waters” we may see some rumours around this stock over the next few months.
6.1% HSP – Hargreaves Services. In some ways I wish I’d never heard of this stock and I’m 14% down on them at the moment although it was far worse. This is a case of me doing research, working out its undervalued and buying on the expectation others would realise this too. The market can remain irrational for some considerable time when it has a mind to! It got really bashed around recently on a trading update and then bounced significantly on its interims. Since it delivered what it would said it would in the trading update nothing ceases to surprise me any longer.
Surprisingly it fell last week as oil rose. Offering a 9% dividend with two-thirds of this already declared for next month. I’m hoping to scale back on this in the near future and if not I’m fairly relaxed due to the dividend
5.8% PFL. Premier Farnell. Famous for the Raspberry Pi although that’s not why I bought it. I bought about two-thirds between 170 and 180 because of the chart and I thought the euro would strengthen (which has proved to be correct but hasn’t helped). The other third I bought last week at 119 and if I can get somewhere between 133 and 138 next week I’m selling. They may go for less. I don’t really want this many and I’ve got my eye on a few other things (HMSO around 620 looks a much better place to be). 8% dividend if it can afford to maintain it which the city boys seem to doubt. I’m of the view it has sufficient cash to pay this for the moment but I guess won’t be surprised if it’s cut. We’ll know soon enough
5.8% SFR. Severfield. Steel again. I like the man in charge. I bought at 69p and it held up well until the last couple of days of the recent FTSE fall. It hit a brickwall at 70 and a huge amount of shares have changed hands there. It had just crept over when the ftse carnage started. It’s fallen to the current price on very little volume so hopefully it will bounce back on similar. Happy to hold as comfortable enough with where this is going long term
4.8% Weir. Industrial with large exposure to US shale industry. Has been bashed down and I bought in at 1725-1825. Got some more last week at 1264 so those are getting sold any day now as I’ve got enough of these and I don’t believe in averaging. Every trade should stand on its own. The dividend is just over 3%. There were takeover rumours earlier in the year when the price was around 1700 so I’m hoping they will get resurrected. I’m happy to hold the rest for a while and see what happens
4.4% SPHR. Sphere Medical. This is speculative part of my portfolio. The share that will make me rich or I’ll lose all my money on it. 10 bagger or bust! It makes blood gas analysers for an intensive care setting without drawing any blood from the patients and provides instant results. Pretty good as I understand in ICU up to 19 blood tests can be required a day from patients. I imagine its pretty good for paediatrics too where babies don’t have loads of blood to start with. The product is launched and is at an early stage in the sales curve. This was Neil Woodford’s first investment from WPCT and he continues to add to his holding. Shares are very tightly held. An upgrade to the analyser is on its way which is hoped will significantly change the sales profile. I can talk endlessly about this company if anyone is interested which is a really bad sign as I’m too attached to it.
3.5% INTU. Property. I have a small profit on this despite buying months ago and Ftse being bashed around. I guess I’m looking for a 10% rise and to collect the dividends as I go. Very safe.
3.3% TATE. I’ve got a small profit on this too. Trade hasn’t gone as well as planned and I’d like to start reducing if it goes up as little as 3%
3.1% Another nameless stock I’m afraid. Quite illiquid and I haven’t decided if I’ve finished accumulating or not. I’ll only be taking a little more if I do.
2.9% LLOY. Who wouldn’t have Lloyds in their portfolio? Some dividends and good potential for growth. Share price a bit disappointing of late but I bought this at 39p so it owes me nothing.
1.9% STAN. Bought most of these at 737 last week although the rest are dire and out of the money from 890. I’m not feeling comfortable with them. Not sure what to do which means I’ll probably let them go and then watch the stock fly
1.4% BG. Held these from 820 from before the bid and just watched. Part of the reason I need to reduce my RDSB
1.2% CSG. Cyril Sweet Group. Bought at 22p so basically flat although I had the chance to sell higher. Quite speculative.
0.6% BP The only thing I can say about this is that having bought at 484 I didn’t buy any more on the way down. The dividend eases the pain ;-) Actually I did once buy some more on the way down but I had the sense to get out for a tiny profit on them.
0.6% AV. Bought at 498p a few months ago and this is all that’s left after selling four fifths higher up, so this has been good to me
0.5% FENR. 12% down on this although it’s bounced. Not much to say – not my best trade. The dividend is good.
0.5% HSBC. Out of the money on this. Could have done better.
0.1% Cash – I’m fully invested with Ftse at 6200 as I write today. Whilst I may rotate my stocks around a bit as there are some bargains out there right now I’ll in general be staying fully invested until Ftse hits 6500. I’ll reappraise then. I may change my mind depending on the mood of the market
CC
- 03 Jan 2019 12:14
- 102 of 103
Finished up 3.3% for the year. Made some good decisions, made a couple of really bad ones. Largest two holdings CTO and NMD up on the year. PCF did well. Everything else a pile of poo.
I'm happy with that with the overall market performance with 2018 being the worst year since 2008. Nevertheless, it is insufficient to provide me with the level of income required should that rate of return continue for the next 30-40 years as inflation will eat away at my real income.
I end the year with my portfolio still very badly balanced. CTO is now 51% of my portfolio so no real progress in reducing it. On the other hand it was up about 12% in the year including dividends so it did me proud. NMD up from 8% to 12% as the share price went up 50%. I have nothing else over 5%
One good thing I've done is increase the amount of fixed interest (bonds and other fixed interest instruments) from 5% to 10%. I plan to increase to 15% by the end of 2019. I've spent alot of time working on this and enjoyed it.
The finance is easy to discuss but emotionally I found the year very difficult. It felt like I was fighting the market for the last 9 months and not much I did in 2018 went well. All my profit came from trades placed in previous years. I failed to recognise:
a) just how badly our politicians would progress Brexit
b) that Trump would be even more aggressive over trade wars than seemed possible even for him.
I have completely given up day-trading now which I loved very much. That was quite a wrench. Although I was making a little bit, it wasn't very much and it was interfering with my investment decisions. An era in my life over.
I hope 2019 will be better. The politicians could make it so. Regrettably I have little faith in them.
cynic
- 03 Jan 2019 12:26
- 103 of 103
unless you are very knowledgeable and have very sophisticated software, day trading has to be one of the finest ways of losing a fortune
for myself, i have a small CFD trading portfolio which is very well up on the year, though i must own up to some nasty unrealised losses
as for sipp, that was showing a wonderful performance from april through september, but assuredly it will have given back an awful lot of that, though i haven't bothered to calculate it
i rarely sell sipp stocks - only right or wrong a long time after the event of course - but for the last 4 months or so, i have just allowed cash from divis and contributions to accumulate
to be honest, i currently find it hard to be enthusiastic about any uk stocks
however, when the spirit moves me, i may add to holdings of potential "special sits" stocks" and maybe a bit more in usa and/or JIL (india fund)