Gas to Liquid
Commencement of Operations Started 28/12/2006
The strategy of GTL Resources plc is to produce liquids such as methanol and ethanol from stranded gas, corn and other feedstocks with quality counterparties. GTL manages all aspects of a project: finance, feedstock supply, production and marketing.

In line with its strategy of seeking to develop and exploit markets for alternative fuels, GTL has, since the beginning of 2001, concentrated primarily upon developing methanol projects, principally in Australia, and, more recently, ethanol project work. The Board has recognised the strategic benefits of acquiring a cash generative asset on a shorter time scale than the typical methanol construction time of three years. In furtherance of this strategy, on 6 September 2005 GTL Resources acquired a controlling interest in Illinois River Energy (IRE) to build an ethanol plant at Rochelle, Illinois, through its wholly owned subsidiary, GTL USA, which has been established for the purpose of investing in ethanol projects in the USA. GTL USA has invested in IRE by way of a subscription for units of IRE pursuant to the Unit Purchase Agreement.

This project has the advantage that the Plant is expected to produce revenues on a shorter time scale and at a significantly lower capital cost than the methanol plant in Australia.

The Company intends to further expand within the ethanol industry in the United States or other suitable markets by selective acquisition of low cost production facilities. The Company sees itself as a potential consolidator of ethanol plants in a particularly fragmented market.

FT Tip
GTL Resources, an Aim-listed company. It raised money to build an ethanol plant in the US. Raw materials costs have risen but the price of ethanol has gone through the roof. The earnings potential should be spectacular.

New Plant

Construction started at Rochelle, Illinois site in September and production from the 50 million gallon per annum ethanol plant is expected to commence in the fourth quarter of 2006. Following unusually mild weather in Illinois the project has progressed well and is on schedule and on budget. Whilst the Companys main efforts centre on the successful delivery of the US ethanol project at Rochelle, the potential expansion of that site to 100 million gallons is being investigated. In addition and consistent
with GTLs stated strategy for the expansion of its interests in the ethanol industry, other ethanol opportunities have also been identified and will be analysed. Pictures Of The Site Under Construction March 27, 2006 http://www.illinoisriverenergy.com/html/construction.html


Arden
http://gtlresources.com/documents/ArdenAnalystResearchNote.pdf
http://www.gtlresources.com/documents/ArdenAnalystResearchNote.pdf
BBC News Item On Ethanol
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nolavconsole/ukfs_news/hi/newsid_4940000/newsid_4948400/bb_wm_4948456.stm

Ethanol Priceshttp://ethanolmarket.aghost.net/
Ethanol as a Transportation Fuel
http://energy.ca.gov/afvs/vehicle_fact_sheets/ethanol.html

Annual report for 2006
http://www.gtlresources.com/documents/GTLAnnualReport2006_001.pdf
Pics from Ethanol Producer Magazine of GTL's plant.
http://ethanolproducer.com/plant-images.jsp?plant_id=302&image_id=59
Commencement of Operations Started 28/12/2006
http://www.gtlresources.com/
Economics of Ethanol
http://www.ces.purdue.edu/extmedia/ID/ID-339.pdf
2 July 2007 GTL Resources FY pretax loss narrows, plans 13 mln stg placing to fund expansion
http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200707020705014067Z.html
GTL Web Site
http://www.gtlresources.com/

Potts
All the way from my 300p down to 185p I even say it in my sleep.

when will we see some action on gtl

Potts
Lots of examples of this type of gross incompetence by fund managers can be seen. At 300p bearing in mind GTL's chequered past it may have well been overbought, now with everything being in place that 300p may represent a fair price at this time. I surmise that part of the drop was a correction, this has gone too far and the share is oversold. With a good set of results I have a price target of 400p which I feel is attainable.

Strange price movement today, fairly strong buying with people taking advantage of low prices, but price still lower. If this buying continues tomorrow, I'm sure the price will have to move up.

Hushpuppy - 4.00 sounds about right after finals in August, wouldn't be surprised to see 6.00 in 2008. All imho off course.

Agree that 400p.

These predictions sure are dandy and i'm sure make all the posters feel chuffed with their investment expertise but the truth of the matter is that 2 let alone 4 isn't looking likely.
So lets start posting the reasons for these predictions - as some have already stated - but still HOW can the market possibly be missing all of these reasons! GTL's business is not that mysterious, its all down in black ink and can be read by any investor who so pleases. And it appears the ones that matter, who have read the info, think GTL should have an SP below 2.

Disappointed at being stopped out of final block this morn. This was my largest holding and I thought the best potential. But a falling sp, for what ever reason has to be respected. 20% loss is sufficient.
I'm still a fan and will look in to find out reason for drop. Respect to all fans of Gtl and best of luck to determined holders as I'm certain sp will rebound.

GDP, I understand your frustration. But what you have said sounds too much like an apologetic for herd-think and efficient market theory.

People who make money at stockpicking are surely those who know what a stock is capable of and go against the crowd on certain of their picks. Okay, you can aruge about making the trend your friend, but it's not all there is.

One reason I don't set stop-losses is because I don't want to get caught the way Alex did, being forced to sell a stock that I know has potential and that should recover given time. The current SP ought to be a bargain, and I'm content to be patient and let the market catch up.

The funadamentals are still getting better: ethanol is strengthening above $2 (now $2.055) and corn is looking rangebound over the last fortnight at around 415 - 420.

Remember every one cent increase in the ethanol price means $500,000 onto IRE's operating profit, and in the last few days ethanol has gone up ten cents. If I got out of GTL now it would only be due to nerves and not economics.

blimey, an upward movement, not seen one of them for a couple of weeks!

Yes, and on how many shares traded? about 40k!

This low-volume stuff is nonsense and one can only wonder how big the bang might be if some major buying actually hit.

But, like the corn, are not businesses likely to have bought the output from GTL's plant at a fixed price - more likely to be under 2$.
I don't know if this is the case or for how long GTL have offered fixed prices for the output (Say a year or one month for output on a set price)

an upward movement of a massive 1p Ghj!
Should fall by 2 tomorrow

good point. you'd have to ask GTL/IRE about that. But I bet they didn't let themselves get locked in at 185 a gallon.

How many buys at 1.90 before it will go up?
May be a large buy going on still. Almost 75,000 buys all over 1.89 and not moved!

laurie squash

It does seem very strange when about 90% of transactions are buys at 1.90, not alot of logic at work with the mm.

GDP

I have taken off my rose tinted glasses and tried to find the negitives with GTL. I could say that Oil may fall or Corn could rise, or that a severe drought in the US mid west could cause major disruption with corn supplies. Or the cost of adding 50m Gallon capacity to production, and where is the money coming from. It could be in the form of grants fron US government, not sure if they would qualify. Or that market sentiment is against this sector, but we all know quickly sentiment can change. And when it does change it could run and run. ( Sorry just slipped those glasses on again. )

But as mentioned alswhere, there will be a much clearer picture after the August finals. This is a share I'm happy to hold for many years, with no stop loss and no price target.

Looking back in, still no idea why sp down. Surprised GTL has not turned to rise, shares usually do after being I've stopped out. Still a fan. Respect all above views on your reasons to hold. On paper GTL has all going for it. But from experience, I've learned the hard way, and only have 3 rules on investing...cut lossess, cut losses, cut losses. No matter how much I love a company it's the market that sets the price. All sorts of emotions put me into a company ..but only stoplosses will take me out.
Bye the bye a 350+pip S/B on CLE over the past 3 days at 20 a pip has recovered most of gtl loss. Perplexed at CLE rise but the market says up. Trailing stops set close. Keep the faith hope to be back.

From the other side two sites that are well worth a read and lots of comparitive information for the financial formula quotes.
http://www.ces.purdue.edu/extmedia/ID/ID-339.pdf
http://www.ces.purdue.edu/bioenergy/index.html

laurie
Cheers for the link I have put this one in the header.
Economics of Ethanol

When will this price stop dropping...???

Just had an e. mail from Peter hope it helps: -
It is the job of our broker to engender confidence amongst market makers that GTL is following a sound policy. We are. Our ethanol plant in Rochelle is working very well and we are earning revenues for the first time in the companys history. Our new broker Morgan Stanley is preparing their first research note on GTL. I am not allowed to know what they will say but I hope it will lead the market to understand that we are now in the strongest position in the life of GTL and that in entering the ethanol market in USA when we did, we are in an excellent position to develop our business.