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Dubious sell-off     

ellio - 15 May 2006 09:10

The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

cynic - 17 Aug 2007 14:47 - 1022 of 1564

PRTY and shares of similar ilk, are basically or at least generally total rubbish, so those buying will be looking at quality stuff that has been unreasonably bashed - e.g. ICI - or the banks, whome this move by the Fed will directly impact.

that said, there may well be some short term moves (as in SOLA) where bears are being squeezed

BigTed - 17 Aug 2007 14:48 - 1023 of 1564

some short term gains may also hit limit orders...

sned - 17 Aug 2007 14:54 - 1024 of 1564

you really do not like PRTY, do you? Anyway, may be a rubbish share, but you can still make money off it ! (the converse is also true and I got the MUG). However, I got in a couple of days ago @ 25 and topped up this morning @ 23.25; have now totally bailed out this time with a CUP (on aggregate).

Is there anything to be drawn from early spikers loosing and other gaining later?

cynic - 17 Aug 2007 14:55 - 1025 of 1564

shut Dow long ...... at least today's gain wipes out my greedy blunder of the other day

Big Al - 17 Aug 2007 14:55 - 1026 of 1564

Looks like they sold into the big bounce. ;-)))

cynic - 17 Aug 2007 14:56 - 1027 of 1564

you're right about PRTY, about which i was proved correct (ditto TAIH and WCC), and also RPT which i got totally wrong

cynic - 17 Aug 2007 15:26 - 1028 of 1564

hope Dow manages to stay above psychological 13,000 level, where it is struggling a bit at the mo ...... certainly not inclined to short though!

jimmy b - 17 Aug 2007 15:39 - 1029 of 1564

could go either way cynic ,that's why iv'e chickened out of playing the indicies today ,i always trade with a stop and you tend to get stopped out before it goes your way in these markets..

Big Al - 17 Aug 2007 15:43 - 1030 of 1564

She's a long way off her high now. ;-))

cynic - 17 Aug 2007 15:43 - 1031 of 1564

was about to say that i fear Dow will finish down, and in the 2 mins that i have been doing something else, i see it is now only +78

maddoctor - 17 Aug 2007 15:45 - 1032 of 1564

since the opening nobody has been buying

hlyeo98 - 17 Aug 2007 15:49 - 1033 of 1564

Dow is struggling to keep above 13000

Stan - 17 Aug 2007 15:49 - 1034 of 1564

Left this site at about 12.30ish with the FT100 flat .....back now and there are 47 posts on this thread and the FT100 now +186!....talk about liquidity and volume )-:

Strawbs - 17 Aug 2007 15:51 - 1035 of 1564

After such a bad couple of weeks it was hardly surprising that a big bounce would come eventually. Look at any long term index chart and you'll see big drops are often followed eventually by a large rise. Depending on the state of the market the rise will either exceed the drop (bull market) or fail short of the peak (bear market). I don't know if the Fed action is anything other than cosmetic. I suspect they took one look at Asia overnight and thought 'maybe we should look like we're doing something' just in case the DOW does 1200 point dive. The relief rally may last several days, but I suspect the rumour mill will soon start asking "what do the Fed know", "who's in trouble", etc. etc. Scared markets remain cynical a lot longer then bullish ones. Be careful out there.

In my opinion.....

Strawbs.

Big Al - 17 Aug 2007 15:59 - 1036 of 1564

The battle is on for 6k

hlyeo98 - 17 Aug 2007 16:03 - 1037 of 1564

Dow has lost the 13000 significantly...now nearing 12900

cynic - 17 Aug 2007 16:05 - 1038 of 1564

it's bouncing around all over the place ..... now 12980 mid, so scarcely threatening 12900

Big Al - 17 Aug 2007 16:11 - 1039 of 1564

13 might be unlucky yet. ;-))

mg - 17 Aug 2007 16:28 - 1040 of 1564

Having read a good many of thee posts I get the feeling that there may be quite a few who didn't experience the bursting of the DOT.COM bubble - I know quite a few did and will remember all the talk of "Dubious Sell Off". I, along with many others, found it difficult to finally get the message - but managed to survive.

If you've only traded whilst the markets have been in the bull run take a deep breath and consider whether there is any particular reason why it should stay that way - and then look at what has driven the rise in your stocks. At the beginning of the bear run there were many who had experienced their 2/5/10/20 baggers and religiously held on whilst they dipped - many buying back into the dips - "because they were bound to go back up".

2 outstanding memories remain - Dusty Bin on the dark side who went bankrupt after making over a million trading during the boom - and Scripopholist (now best known for the Betting thread) who was heavily chastised for selling the Nasdaq at 100 a point and making a great deal of money - despite being harangued by hundreds of posters.

I hope I'm just being a bit of a doom merchant and this is just a correction - but, be warned, trade what you see, not what you think the market should do.

mg (feeling a bit like a vicar giving my Sunday sermon:))))

SECRUOSER - 17 Aug 2007 16:31 - 1041 of 1564

The big difference with the dot.com bubble is that it involved stocks being inflated to huge p/e ratios and even many stocks inflated to billions market cap which didn't have a hope of even making a profit for years. The tech stocks were exceptionally over-valued. This is nothing like the case now, when most stocks are on historically fairly low p/e ratings.
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