overgrowth
- 13 May 2005 16:36
Retail Decisions are
market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They
produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally,
though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers
both in the UK and US.
They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be
a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this
"forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout
2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and
Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of
millions of shares in RTD !
|
|
Shares Magazine had
a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is
about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution".
It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.
Here's what Shares
had to say:
"Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing
credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit
and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but
also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in
your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions.
Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime.
Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump
is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities
seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains
concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already
has fantastic experience and technology.
The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that
it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer,
T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner
of Macy's and Bloomingdales.
Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business
in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low
single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."
Retail Decisions have
continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz.
fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices
and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams
from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through.
In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over
their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company
is doing.
The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software
is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success
in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is
being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real
gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.
|

Douggie
- 10 Jun 2005 09:10
- 103 of 1009
nil tic up so far!!!!!......;o/
mournin all ;-\
m0dulus
- 10 Jun 2005 11:57
- 105 of 1009
Any reason for the slowness in RTD
m0dulus
- 10 Jun 2005 12:20
- 107 of 1009
OG
u think in short term we can see it move into the 30's but whats the long term scenerio and in what period of time do u think it can be achieved.
Fundamentalist
- 10 Jun 2005 12:51
- 109 of 1009
OG
Based on a Pe of 20, to achieve your forecasts the company will need to generate the following post tax profits ( i have used post acc changes profit):
End 2005: 7.25m
End 2006: 15m
End 2008: 22.25m-30m
Last yr results were turnover of 32m with profits of 4.1m (was 3.1m prior to acc changes)
Personally think your forecasts are on the optimistic side, though as we all know, calculating how much the growth in internet (and fraud) transactions will add to growth in revenue/profits is difficult to calculate and key to the forward valuation and share price of the company
Fundamentalist
- 10 Jun 2005 13:06
- 111 of 1009
OG
no probs - helps me to clarify what i and others think is achievable. As you know im still looking to get back in, struggling to understand the current price activity.
As you say, i have worked on a fixed pe 0f 20, though if as you say they are delivery 50%-100% profit increases then they would justify a higher pe rating.
Just notice my figures are slightly overstated - should be:
2005: 7.25m
2006: 14.5m
2008: 21.75 - 29m
Fred1new
- 10 Jun 2005 13:28
- 112 of 1009
9/10/2005 is seems a long way a way. But I have just had a look at atticipated EPS from comdirect and Sharescope and Barclays. They seem to be giving slightly lower figures but I don't think they are building in the effects of Macy's and Bloomingdale's, advances in fuel card returns, or Voca and Mi-Pay.
My "guesses" or are they "hopes" are similar to overgrowth.
Fred1new
- 10 Jun 2005 13:37
- 113 of 1009
Information request. I think the majority of RTD output is based on Software rather than hardware. If so the rate of growth now that the basic R+D has been done should be increasing in speed. Fundy tell me I am not wrong.
Fundamentalist
- 10 Jun 2005 13:46
- 114 of 1009
Fred
personally would expect a slowdown in R&D as a business matures, however, in a technology business, where the technology is continually required to be one step ahead of the fraudster then i expect that the slowdown will only be minor. Also, there will be greater R&D costs as the company looks into new areas i.e the latest contract had a 300k r&D spend included
Douggie
- 16 Jun 2005 10:56
- 115 of 1009
there isn't much to say is there....................
skyhigh
- 16 Jun 2005 11:33
- 116 of 1009
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!
Oakapples142
- 16 Jun 2005 12:31
- 117 of 1009
Its Ok Douggie - Broker Lewis Charles makes it a buy recommendation to-day with a 12 month "fair value" of 37.5p
Oakapples142
- 16 Jun 2005 15:54
- 119 of 1009
Sorry overgrowth cant find any details as yet - just had two winners on the trot at York (first bet this year) but will research later.
m0dulus
- 16 Jun 2005 16:04
- 120 of 1009
Any reasons for the price not moving?
Again its a patient game...
m0dulus
- 16 Jun 2005 16:13
- 122 of 1009
OG
so when do u think the next mark up will be?