cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
cynic
- 12 Feb 2008 14:39
- 1031 of 21973
explosive ..... very dangerous to short at the current level .... make sure you have a sensible stop in place
explosive
- 12 Feb 2008 15:30
- 1032 of 21973
Cynic - Only a 3 rolling point bet, can't see it doing anything more than 300 points max. I'm bebating on just letting this run over the next few weeks. Not set a stop loss as of yet as am watching it also but will do later.
BigTed
- 12 Feb 2008 15:33
- 1033 of 21973
Need to start taking my own advice and trusting my research and instincts, yesterday stated i thought pound should strengthen against dollar, from 19500 to 19600 in a day, also showed Signalwatch to call 12300 as top of triangle (watching for a break out) boy has that happened this afternoon... I was too slow and still too scared of making another wrong call to act, may wait an hour to see if/how far it pulls back before making any decisions...:)
bhunt1910
- 12 Feb 2008 15:33
- 1034 of 21973
ironically - at the same time that explosive went short - I went long with a small bet - but have just bailed out now and gone short. Still learning.
edit - my short just got stopped out = perhaps I had too tight a stop and the momentum was still upwards ??
explosive
- 12 Feb 2008 16:06
- 1035 of 21973
Bhunt - Good call, debating on placing another short at these levels but won't as if it goes against I'll end up with a margin call, the first rolling bet is easily covered but a second could be a disaster and maybe not worth the risk... Hope your all doing significantly better than I am today.... Can't win 'em all..!!
spitfire43
- 12 Feb 2008 16:10
- 1036 of 21973
I think you are spot on Ted that markets have seen enough doom and gloom, and were looking for any positive bit of news to rally. Could rally tomorrow as well, but still expecting a larger correction soon. Will look closely for a good shorting time on the FTSE.
explosive
- 12 Feb 2008 16:33
- 1037 of 21973
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iIKkCUkXfGX-D9oJ0KDZ4kcITQcwD8UORLKO0
More on the Buffett offer..
cynic
- 12 Feb 2008 16:35
- 1038 of 21973
FTSE is at an interesting point .... 5900/5910 has proved pivotal in the past, and certainly tried briefly to nudge through that point ...... certainly would not short o'night but rather watch Dow.
if Dow holds current sort of levels through close, or even loses only a little bit of the current steam, then London could well open strong again, for F/E will follow US ..... hope that makes sense!
BigTed
- 12 Feb 2008 16:58
- 1039 of 21973
If it wasn't for the fact i love my sleeps, i would consider opening a long on the Hang Seng if the Dow closes strongly...
cynic
- 12 Feb 2008 17:21
- 1040 of 21973
have just been shut out of my Dow long but at a decent profit .... will now watch and contemplate whether or not to dabble again either long or short
Ted .... you can easily open and trade a position in F/E now ... or at least you can in IG
BigTed
- 12 Feb 2008 17:39
- 1041 of 21973
Thanks Rich, yes i know, but just thought they would gain a lot more when their market opens playing catch up...?
cynic
- 12 Feb 2008 17:49
- 1042 of 21973
so go long now, though it will already be well up .... personally i wouldn't, but you might like to try it as a dummy run
spitfire43
- 12 Feb 2008 18:04
- 1043 of 21973
FTSE feels like it's gone to quickly to these level, it will hinge on DOW tonight, but would expect some correction tomorrow. Just checked 1 year chart on FTSE which shows resistance at 6067 (last lower high on 4th Feb) and support at 5600 from 22nd Jan. It's in a clear bear channel, unless it breaks through resistance at 6067. If it fails and reverses I believe this would give sell signal and a test of support at 5600.
Still have my bear head on, not inclined to be growing horns any time soon.
cynic
- 12 Feb 2008 18:07
- 1044 of 21973
nimbleness and some luck required ..... don't really agree with your analysis, though think FTSE top is no higher than 6230 and bottom 5690
explosive
- 12 Feb 2008 19:37
- 1045 of 21973
Just closed -190 points, that clears out 3/4 of last weeks profit made..... CAUTION springs to mind, Buffett get a hair cut... Very unpridictible times, was sure of a fall with General Motors results, oh well another day..
cynic
- 12 Feb 2008 19:57
- 1046 of 21973
interesting you should do that though do not know the level ..... am currently contemplating shorting around 12430, not that i think there will be ahuge sell-off, but just that there may be a turn .... shall be happy if Dow finishes at say 12350 - i.e. well above the fairly critical 12300 mark
now short 12441 .... we shall see
explosive
- 12 Feb 2008 19:58
- 1047 of 21973
Its been a day of looking at the charts thinking more about where to limit losses and if fallbacks are due at what prices.... Definatly more pot luck than anything at the moment.... Gonna play safe and wait for signs of topping out before shorting again, maybe concenrate on the FTSE and let Watt St steady into a trend more.... Good advice if I manage to follow it, I know what I'm like, if I think I've spotted a days or weeks trend....!!
explosive
- 12 Feb 2008 20:12
- 1048 of 21973
Cynic I'd add another 100 pts to your 12350 as this push has got the market interested... Wouldn't be surprised if tomorrows news features Warren again, only 1 decine so far 2 still to go... Very funny today. The Buffett article I don't view positivley at all, if anything it highlights possibilities of losses, in other sectors of the American markets.
The chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway Inc told CNBC television that he had extended the offer to MBIA Inc, Ambac Financial Group Inc and FGIC Corp.
Buffett said he would charge premiums of 50 percent above what the bond insurers are receiving from issuers on the policies, which many analysts saw as a high price. There is a good chance that none of the bond insurers that received the offer will accept it, portfolio managers said.
From The Guardian.....
Doesn't make sense, Market rally on hot air offer, topped with the worst news ever from General Motors.... However its Warren Buffett and stupid he's not..
cynic
- 12 Feb 2008 20:15
- 1049 of 21973
am out of that short again with nice little profit that will more than pay for Thursday dinner!
market really is very lively!
BigTed
- 12 Feb 2008 21:10
- 1050 of 21973
Just driven back from Torquay and the market had droppd 130 odd points in my absence! by the time i come to my senses its moved up 60 and not so appealing for a long, sheeesh, be nimble he says, more like lightening with the way this thing moves...!