ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

princess: A new thread was established yeaterday by EWRobson. It is the 2nd ASOS Challenge for those interested. The new thread should remove all the so called 'clutter' from this thread. OK? JGT

john: beat you by a minute! Reactions to results and current chart?
Eric

Any ideas what's rocking the boat?

Was there something negative in the statement?

Think the results we're great, but i was waiting for something to wet my appetite so to speak. That something extra that would give us the momentum to push up to the pound barrier.

The results were as expected so no move up or down, but excellent prospects for further growth, so its a matter of when not if imho.

Eric: Here we go... all 20k on the nose on tnd Tandem group. Count the LEGEND in!! Good luck others. Who votes, every man puts 1k in the pot and winner takes all??!! ;-)

Woodie, Our Toa were tipped as a buy for 2005 in city confidential. Plenty more to come I hope. Will post on the toa bb later.

Cheers

Legend

Eric + Guys: Truly impressive results. Although at this SP we still have a high PE and therefore expectation. I would expect the SP to move once Analyst briefings on these results have been held....so if you are Long, hold for that. Investors will be looking for signs at the meeting that the momentum can be maintained in the face of all these 'bearish' media comments about slowing retail spending. They will also want updates on future plans/products. Clearly though the market has not been taken by surprise at the results, and the SP has been marked down (haven't we seen this before though, buy on expectation, sell on the results)...but I would suggest this is only a temporary reaction and unless we have analyst markdowns after their briefings we should see a return to a higher SP. Current Charts indicating a 1+ SP, although I am concerned about my standard simple averages turning down. So we may yet get a better BUY opportunity over the next few days or so.

Hope this helps.


John

I forgot to add it is worth waiting to see what the close tonite will be, as it is Friday and the end of the week! John

Thanks for the analysis John.

I've finally got time to have a peer round the site for ASOS - it's
the only way I feel to judge a retailer, to visit the shop or equiv.
It's a really cool idea!
The youngsters are celeb mad and brand/label nuts and this combines the
two and allows them to buy at really good prices. I honestly expected
the prices to be higher so was surprised.
Good trading over Christmas too...any of you got a personal target
fig for these? Obviously no buy recommendation included etc etc.
:>)

70p Support....90p resistance. Trend line target 120p. JGT

cheers johngtudor - will check it out further
:>)

John: Thanks for update from chartist standpoint but not forgetting the fundamentals! Bollinger Bands are squeezing in. We nearly got a breakout N last week and it could be we will be testing the breakout S. But I agree that what is needed is 'new news'. The key point is that retail spending, whilst down, is also changing in balance between High Street and internet/TV. One would expect that these results will bring this home to commentators which could bring in new buyers. Good volume today, fairly evenly balanced, which will hopefully have shaken out most of the short-term holders.

stockbunny: Good name for an ASOS fan! If you trawl back you will see a number of predictions of sp (forecast may be too strong a word). John Marshall gave good write-up (as a holder) in Shares issue of 16th December. This quoted Seymour Pierce figured for earnings of 1.55m this year and 2.25m next, ie. pe of 36 dropping to 24. These figures are clearly for the business as is and are probably significantly understated if likely developments are taken into account, as quoted: "Over the next 12 months, the range will double to 3000 items. ASOS is sufficiently self-confident to launch own-label womenswear. It will also do more direct sourcing, which should lead to increased margins, and is likely to widen its appeal by issuing gift vouchers." "...ASOS could easily enter the world of TV shopping. It would require a very small investment as its systems would be adequate for the task."

If you follow John Marshall, and it is evident in these quotes, he is a DYOR fan! He checks his comments out with the horse's mouth; thus TV must be on the agenda (as teased out of them by Sandrew above). My very personal forecast for this year would be another 70% jump in turnover but also an increase in margin (ignoring one-off costs in relation to warehouse and IT). The pe could drop to 20. In practise the sp will rise to compensate, with a target of 120p this year. Not wildly exciting but nice to have as a banker!

Eric

Cheers Eric - one thing that did strike me was I wonder when
they will realise that there is another equally good market for
the 35-55's in also targetting celeb. clothing - there are many
really well dressed older women too and this area is not being
currently exploited, as the clothing range is really for younger
ones. Never mind how old Kyle is, most women of that age wouldn't
buy and wear what she does - or at least not in public! LOL!!

70p support has only been in place for a while to my eye, but there has been
support below that a tad also, it seems the early days of
20p a share have gone! I wonder if there's anyone who's been
in these since those early days - if so they've done well!
:>)

I bought at 10.13 bunny and topped up recently at 69 - it has been a good one
(good from a CGT point of view too being AIM):-)

Agree about potential market for slightly older age group............. market
your idea to them :-))

stockbunny

I suspect that would be a good target market, but perhaps it would need a different website (prefer that age range myself!). They are also targetting men but your idea makes sense. First got in at 23p but had lost the first 4-bagger and kicking myself for missing the Shares recommendations. The other upside which I omitted is the possibility of a takeover at some stage. I expect it would be resisted at this stage but as the company matures, and the management have had a surfeit of success, the time will surely come. This Christmas has shown that the internet (TV) has arrived for fashion, as well as books and Xmas pressies in general, so Boards of the High Street leaders must be both worried and wondering. What price - not less than 2.50!

Eric

Certainly looks good for the future :>)

Good to see a happy bunny :>)

FIRST ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO

Final regular report after the 15 weeks of the Portfolio. legend (BNH)wins by a very short head from bosley (SEO). Team are a respectable third with ASC - holding fire for second challenge. The rest needn't to have turned up at the races. Trounced by that good stayer - the small.cap. index. So lesson learnt and on to the second challenge (separate thread). Lots of action left in ASC, I believe, so need the thread to itself. Will keep an eye on this portfolio and report as appropriate. I understand Sandrew is providing one of her fab. dinners in Cornwall for the winner and cornish tea for the runner up!

company_________ EPC pp(p) issue-m shares price val. cap-m gain % gain-wk

Broker Network H BNH 77.50 15.065_ 6450__ 123.5 7966 18.61 59.35_ -3.14
Stanelco________ SEO 4.50_ 782.225 111000 7.125 7909 55.73 58.33_ 11.68
ASOS____________ ASC 56.00 67.97__ 8900__ 78___ 6942 53.02 39.29_ -1.89
Sterling Energy_ SEY 17.25 822.712 29000_ 16.75 4858 137.8 -2.90_ 9.84
Civilian Content CCN 16.25 41.883_ 30700_ 14.5_ 4452 6.07_ -10.77 0.00
Marchpole Hold._ MPH 33.75 120.445 14800_ 27.5_ 4070 33.12 -18.52 -1.79
Yoomedia________ YOO 22.00 499.9__ 22700_ 17.75 4029 88.73 -19.32 2.90
Cybit Holdings__ CYH 91.00 19.779_ 5500__ 69___ 3795 13.65 -24.18 5.34
Petroceltic Intl PCI 15.00 484.975 33300_ 10.5_ 3497 50.92 -30.00 25.30
Petrel Resources PET 124.5 58.625_ 4000__ 52.5_ 2100 30.78 -57.83 -5.83
CFA Capital Gp._ CFP 0.70_ 619.0__ 714000 0.26_ 1856 1.61_ -62.86 -7.14

totals______________________________________________ 51473 -6.41_ 3.08
small cap index_____ 2,596.50______________________ 2846.9 +9.64

The point that strikes me with this week's movements is that there is a lot of life in (most of) these shares. Good recoveries in PCI and SEY, probably linked to the oil price. SEO is on a good uptrend and has broken through its resistance level decisively. CYH stirring. Good news could arrive anytime for PET. CCN, MPH and YOO still in winter hibernation. CFP has had to start again with a new Board. Several worth holding or keeping an eye on. Finally, better luck to us all next time (except legend but including bosley as I'm backing the same horse!)

Eric

I know this is the asos bb and only good things are wanted to be said, but if you are considering buying more asc then ask yourself this question.. why buy asc when they are forecast to make 1.5m and they are valued at 54m on a p/e of 100 when you could buy

Broker Network (BNH) on a p/e of 10 (valued at 19.5m) and will easily make 1.5m profit in Julys results, has 3m cash in the bank. I topped up the other week. In comparison, BNH is 2-3 times undervalued than asc when profits are the same...

If anyone comes back and says brand name or goodwill, yes I will accept that it does exist and because of its intangiability it is impossible to quantify, but how much is goodwill worth if you split a company up??

Yes asc has done exceptionally well - much better than I personally thought - and hats off to those who have done well from it, but isn't it time to move on???

Did you get my request for the competition eric - 20k of Tandem group (TND)How many are in for the comp then??