rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

Cynic if DOW falls to 12940 then I'd be going with the trend. Still short FTSE and DOW and both positions nicely in profit.

Boxerdog, if you have a bone to pick with Cynic regarding GKP please do it on that thread.

USD Chicago PMI 51.6 consensus 51.2 previous 50.4

USD Pending Home Sales m/m 1.7% consensus -0.3% previous 5.2%

shortie - have you banked profits yet or do you believe the amis really will screw themselves?

Hi Cynic, no plans to bank profits yet and happily letting my positions run. I can't see the Americans coming to any agreement soon, and then theirs still the debt ceiling to be agreed too. I think the US screwed themselves years ago when they started to try and fix a recession with QE, if it weren't for that fact the USD is the worlds reserve currency and investors have been buying up gold and commodities etc the dollar would have fallen through the floor. What happens when investors decide not to hold as much in commodities and sell the dollar, with the increased money supply I think a bout of weakness has to be due and the US will suffer hyperinflation as a result of increasing money supply.... This will cause the DOW to rally and the USD to weaken, at the moment though the opposite is happening, people are buying commodities priced in USD to protect against business volatility due to spending cuts and increased taxation as a result of going over the cliff. Just my personal thoughts...

very short term, it has to be a racing certainty that there will be a "sticking plaster" solution passed ..... thereafter, we of course go back to the usual knock-about slapstick that the amis alone think makes their country and it's political system the envy on the world

with regard to commodities, don't forget they are actually used for making stuff and not just for trading like cases of blackmarket sardines!

I guess Obama's 'fallback' plan will save the day and procrastination will rule for the foreseeable future.

US Congress in final push to reach 'fiscal cliff' deal

Given the problems Europe and in general Euro faced, I think the world has no choice but to continue using $ as reserved currency. So, American will not face any serious problem in the next ten years. They can simply print more money, like other countries in the world.

I think commodities have more value than they are priced right now, especially that Chinese are getting richer every day and consume more and more. They do not talk, they simply ACT.

Consider the speed of building new high-speed rail (1400 miles)... and a compare it with the UK or America. They spend more time for making decisions resulting in price rise etc... and complications.

The question is Cynic, what type of sticking plaster will be applied, increased tax to counter increased spending or neutral tax and a reduction in spending? Of course reduced tax and increased spending is what everyone wants but to achieve this the debt ceiling will need to be raised. I think the US will opt for neutral tax rises and spending continuing its QE policy for another year. Its the quick fix policy that keeps everyone happy, the US will no doubt deal with the fallout of its increased money supply later when pushed to do so the way it deals with everything. Iraq should start paying its way in 2013 for the USA increasing tax revenues so you never know...

did you notice how big china is relative to UK or that America does not even have a coordinated rail system?

are you aware that building high speed rail has been one of the causes of Spain's financial plight and that the Dutch are less than impressed with theirs?

finally, leaving aside cost and environmental impact, what has convinced you that UK even needs a high speed rail network?

Shortie - i not sure exactly what you mean by "Iraq paying its way in 2013" ...... certainly that country is proving a bonanza for the lucky few oilfield development companies like Halliburton and Schlumberger, though it remains almost impossible for others ..... however, i am fairly confident that the Kurdistan impasse will be resolved during the coming year and it is not entirely beyond the realms of possibility that Iran will start tip-toeing in from the cold.

Cynic,
I was referring to the rise of China (1.4 bln people) and many other Asian countries, more than half the population of the world, and that they have to keep USD as reserved currency.

Compass Point Research is confident the Senate will reach a fiscal-cliff deal today, saying, "The sides are simply too close at this point to walk away from the table." But while markets should respond positively, Compass Point contends any rally will likely be shortlived. It notes a new Congress is sworn in Thursday "and the battle starts anew. Markets will likely survey the remaining political and legislative landscape and quickly recognize that there is an inordinate amount of political risk concentrated" in 1Q.

I hae started to invest in some China company's . I hope it will be a good move ?

Surely it would be better to invest in European/American companies which have high exposure to China? Companies domiciled in China have a bit of a checkered history when it comes to their accounting procedures.

personally, i would not touch ANY chinese company (even with yours, as used to be said!) ..... they are totally corrupt as the many singed round-eyes have discovered to their cost

HCM & CTEK only. Happy new year all.

Lena Komileva, chief economist at G+ Economics, has drawn a conclusion on the argument that four years of record monetary expansion and $1T-plus annual budget deficits have failed to generate enough cyclical amplitude to close the twin employment and fiscal gaps in the US economy. "A midnight congressional deal on the US budget may avert an economic cliff, but it will not eliminate the political and economic reasons that have brought us to this point. This raises serious questions as to whether policymakers will act in the public interest rather than in their own self-interest as elected career politicians."

DOW short cashed in, now playing 10 minute charts..

sensible chap shortie .... should have been a good wad with which to start 2013

i recollect that 12940 is/was quite an important support/resistance, so perhaps a level to watch

I took 60 off the DOW on that last gasp surge - Obama due to speak shortly I believe.


Happy New Year.