How would you like to trade a market where you get large regular price swings every 10 minutes in the afternoon, seven days a week. A
market where all prices are set purely by supply and demand, few transaction costs, no middle men and you only pay commission if you win? Where you can freely act as a market maker and where you have direct market access and where you can create a spread for others to take?

Betfair has revolutionised the betting market and created an open platform for exchanging risk on sports events. This market is now viewed much more like a traditional financial risk market than an old fashioned betting market. Smart users have realised that there are huge opportunities on Betfair because they can buy and sell risk in much the same way they would in a normal financial market but without the burden of cost or the restricted access that is usually associated with traditional financial markets.

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Sure email me if you want to throw some ideas at me or tell me I'm bonkers.

Good evening Scrip, Interested and how! Sounds like this could be of interest to me.

PS - Backed the Dow daily 'up'/down this pm @ 2.0 then lay @ 1.7 to green up for a few bob. Just before close the up lay was 1.01! and the down back was 100!
Now (I may have got this wrong) but if I had backed the up @ 2 x 10 and then at some time in the day backed the down @ 2, x 10 waited till near the bell then backed wichever was odds 100 x 20p could have greened up for a 46.5% profit. Not been watching the dow at close before, so odds may not be as such each day, worth watching, shame I'll be working for the rest of the week.
If anyone could post the odds at the close I would be greatful.
Cheers Mike...

"Now (I may have got this wrong) but if I had backed the up @ 2 x 10 and then at some time in the day backed the down @ 2, x 10"

You would end level +/- nothing.

If you backed on both side at more than 2 with level stakes at the same price you would end up on both.

I've worked that out too. I have written an app to reconcile the movement in the indexes or individual financial markets to a fixed odds price. The problem with financials though is that you need to know the volatility to use and unfortunately it is not possible to know that till the market is closed!! So some guesstimation needed. With sports there is only minor volatility so the odds are much easier to calculate.

"If you backed on both side at less than 2 with level stakes at the same price you would end up on both."

Ahem, I think you mean layed :-)

Just testing! Go to the top of the class Kayak, Will change the original.

Thanks guys, I think you both missed the point I was making but nevermind I'll test my idea next week. ( Back odds at 100:1 on the bell ) think about it!
"As Alan Sugar said never never never underestamate me"!

Good morning Scrip,

I would be interested in your algorithm.

D.

Scrip

sounds interesting - ive been trying to work out roughly myself what the price change is likely to be in a football match if a goal occurs. As far as I can see it has two benefits

1) It allows you to place your bet at an optimum price to green up as soon as the goal occurs (once the market is unsuspended) - i often find myself waiting for the market to settle again before doing so (and in this time it could go against me)

2) It allows you a more accurate calculation of risk/reward before rather than after the event

Scrip,

I,too, would be very interested in your proposal.

Having been on betfair for the last few months I've recently been trying to second guess what the change in the odds would be during a game especially towards the latter stages as I often try to squeeze out exta ticks during this point.

A more accurate prediction of the odds would certainly be of benefit to me.

OK, That's giving me some impetus to push forward. I will trial backtest and trial the formula live. Hopefully I can finish testing by the end of the month. I have been applying the data to some historic matches. The standard error over the course of a match is pretty minor about 0.20% with a tiny STDEV.

One curiousity it has thrown up is I think there is a good opportunity trading extra time. I'll monitor this but as soon as you have an idea on what the extra time is the odds need to be rebased. I really haven't watched the effect of this before but depending on the current score there can often need to be a big re-pricing. I guess if you get a seat near the fourth official at a match you would know ahead of the market what the likely added time would be. A quick call to your mate on Betfair and it would be an easy 10%. Somehow though I guess the market will probably try and price this in ahead of time.

Don't know, but would be an interesting thing to watch.

Have I missed something here but why are Portugal being offered at 3.1 against the Rep of Ireland? I always thought of Portugal as a pretty good team. Certainly better than the odds currently imply. Maybe many of their key players are missing or something but seems rather strange to me.

Scrip,

Slightly off topic - I'm interested in reading a basic book on probability that's relevant to trading and betting, and a friend recommended a book 'An intro to probability theory' Vol 1 by William Feller (Fellow?). What's do you think?

D.

There's an excellent Maths site here. It tells you quite a lot about probability and chance:

Diego, never read that one but will have a look. Richard Haigh, Taking chances is an excellent read if you don't have PHD in maths and want to understand how probability applies to sport.

Doc's web site is useful as well, it's on my bookmarks.

Thanks scrip/Doc. Just looking at your site now Doc.

D.

Afternoon all Betfair traders, Greened up on the ftse daily up/down backed the above @ 2.6 greened on down @ 2.55 for a 57% or 49% profit. My 100.1 back idea did'nt work :o(! pc still on the blink missed the footie OK first thing..

Very good chartist! However you are likely to get better odds by laying the odds under 2 rather than backing above 2. Lay down at 1.63 and green up by laying up at 1.65 would have been the same as your example.

I bet Kayak is on the final 1/2 hour Daily FTSE up/down bet. The question is which side?

:)

Both sides Scrip of course :-)

Of course!! I am green but not even on both so looking for a down.