Thought I'd start a new thread as this is going to be a major talking point this year...have not made up my mind yet...(unlike bucksfizz)....but thinking of voting for an exit as Europe is not doing Britain any good at all it seems....

From Friday's Moneyweek


In a no-deal situation, we would have no incentive at all to put up unnecessary import barriers – and it is hard to see how even the most bonkers members of the EU system would want to block exports to the UK (it would be an entirely unnecessary act of aggression).
World Trade Organisation (WTO) “most favoured nation” rules oblige members not to discriminate between trading partners. But they also allow exemptions for national security reasons. Short-term, that would surely cover food and medicine: our borders should be able to stay open, tariff-free, to EU goods. So talk of extreme shortages of medicine seems pretty silly.

On the export side, there would be added costs (import, export and transit documents for starters), but EU lorries that have entered the UK (85% of lorries leaving the UK for the EU are non-UK ones) must get home – and it is hardly in the interests of any EU nation to strand its own fleet in Kent for weeks. So, as John suggests, it seems likely that any chaos would be reasonably short-lived.
Read the whole of this article on the MoneyWeek website.

certainly not the scenario painted per the link i posted ........ a different view of indisputable facts no doubt!

https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/no-deal-brexit-what-meaning-uk-leave-uk-consequences/

T. May is a tenacious woman.

A little like an oversized boulder in the middle of the road, preventing traffic from passing on to better things.

Her honesty is obvious to herself, but not the general public who groan when she speaks to them.

When are the debates?

"Her honesty is obvious to herself, but not the general public " Maybe she is so deluded that she really believes what she is saying, which is not an unknown state to be in.

I guess that she considers Junker to be her Fairy Godfather that has used his magical powers to empower TM with the help of his two henchmen - Macron & Barnier, all being controlled by Angela Merkel.

Cynic , it's in no ones interest to cause chaos if the UK leaves with no deal and any initial problems whether here or in the EU would soon be over come.

There is no reason if we decide on a no deal exit which mainly refers to a no trade deal exit that other deals could not be agreed such as those regarding citizenship , agreeing a security deal etc.

For the sake of both sides there could also be say a 6 months transition period to prepare.

The biggest problem with the current deal ever getting agreed is that we'll go into trade negotiations and be threatened left right and centre by 27 other countries with the back stop scenario regardless of what has been written in the political statement.

Macron and Spain are already threatening it and we haven't even started negotiating yet.

Two years wasted so far and probably another 10 to come if May's deal gets through. Sooner she goes the better.

When she talks about 'the Backstop' she seems to be quite confident it is never going to be used. So although it's there and of great concern to the likes of JRM, BY and IDS, she seems to dismiss it and almost scorn their questioning of her on it. This is her exhibiting an arrogance and i just don't like to see it dealt with like that.

I don't feel confident or comfortable with her answers. Why? Well, I'm witnessing other senior politicians exhibiting a lack of belief in her answers. They seem to be uncomfortable too.

If the Backstop isn't required and/or is of absolutely no value, then why is it in there?

Why can't she just get rid of it?

Then last night we had Macron saying he was going to force us into the Backstop and keep us there if we don't agree to his French fishing boat territorial requests.

In the H of C today, she utterly dismissed Macron's threat as not being at all feasible, adding that we are going to be masters of our own territorial waters and would be at the time he would be wanting to use this threat so it just wouldn't work.

Can I/we/you believe her? Can I/we/you believe in her?

Hmmm?

I'd like some better explanations backing her ideas, statements and opinions up.

If they were from a bono fido source, than i'd be more satisfied and reassured.

I'd like to see a breakdown of what we are paying 39 billion quid for too.

Isn't Bono Fido the dog who used to sing for U2???

:o)

rarely say this about you ..... stupid girl!! :-)

in today's FT .....

Why May’s Brexit deal deserves support

Perhaps Theresa May’s greatest achievement has been to unite both Leavers and Remainers in opposition to the Brexit withdrawal agreement she has just struck with the EU. Brexiters are dismayed by the concessions the UK prime minister has made, while many Remainers point out that the downsides of the deal could have been avoided by giving up the project of leaving the EU entirely.

However, as Gideon Rachman argues in his column this week, while Mrs May's deal upsets the zealots on both sides, it at least offers everyone something: it honours the result of the 2016 referendum while seeking to minimise the economic pain of Brexit. And what is more, the alternatives — a disastrous no-deal Brexit or an inconclusive second referendum campaign — would further sap Britain's already fragile tradition of political stability and social calm.


Meanwhile, Robert Shrimsley warns against the assumption that the UK will avoid crashing out of the EU without a deal: the parliamentary arithmetic is such that opponents of no deal could end up shooting down their best options.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-economy/brexit-deal-to-mean-four-percent-hit-to-uk-economy-by-2030-think-tank-idUKKCN1NV1W1?feedType=nl&feedName=ukmorningdigest&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2018%20Template:%20UK%20MORNING%20DIGEST%202018-11-27&utm_term=NEW:%20UK%20Morning%20Digest


Brexit deal to mean four percent hit to UK economy by 2030 - think tank
2 MIN READ

LONDON (Reuters) - The British government’s Brexit deal with Brussels is likely to mean Britain’s economy will be 3.9 percent smaller by 2030 than if it were to stay in the European Union, a leading think tank said on Monday.

City workers cross the River Thames with the City of London financial district seen behind in London, in Britain October 27, 2016. REUTERS/Toby Melville
The hit would be the equivalent of losing the economic output of Wales or the contribution of London’s financial services industry, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said.

The report was commissioned by People’s Vote, a campaign group calling for a new referendum that could keep Britain in the European Union.

Britain’s economic growth has slowed since the 2016 Brexit vote, largely in line NIESR’s pre-referendum projections of the impact of a ‘Leave’ vote, but not by as much as many forecasters predicted.

NIESR’s latest report predicted that, if Britain strikes a free trade deal with the EU to replace its current membership, by 2030 the lost output would be equivalent to about 1,100 pounds ($1,400) per person per year.

Britain is due to leave the EU in March but, if parliament approves the exit deal, its trading status with the bloc will remain unchanged at least until the end of 2020.

That transition period could be extended until the end of 2022 as London and Brussels hammer out their new relationship.

Falling business morale points to weak German growth
Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to overcome opposition within her Conservative Party to the agreement she stuck with Brussels, raising concerns about a no-deal Brexit among businesses and investors.

If Britain leaves the EU in March with no deal, but with some agreements to avoid major disruption to trade and travel, the economy will be 5.5 percent smaller by 2030 than under continued EU membership, NIESR estimated.

It said the hit would be less if Britain remained in a customs union with the EU — a backstop option in London’s deal with Brussels — which would leave the economy 2.8 percent smaller by 2030 than if it stayed fully in the bloc.

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

TM using Project Fear more than any of the Remainers did before the vote - says it all when you can now see what her real objective was - and has the audacity to suggest the NHS will be better off by the sort of figures the Leavers had painted on the bus.

Get those 48 letters signed and remove her.

Ct your MP is the best one to contact.

At least Sir Michael Fallon has now come out clearly telling the PM its all over for her, I am sure he will soon be joined by a lot of others now that he has spoken, as he was a Eurosceptic but wanted to Remain in the EU in fear of Russia/Putin.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46356353

Just been talking with a couple of tories about the differences between some tory PMs.

One commented that whereas Churchill retreated from Europe and then went back to help win a war, Theresa May is retreating from Europe with little or no chance, or hope of returning.

Sad.

as voted for by a 4% majority in the referendum
indeed, very much in line with what corbyn himself has always wanted

did you actually vote in the referendum fred?

If you are living out of the Country for 15 years or more you do not get a vote, no matter how British you are cynic.

so????
and do you think they should?

Depends on whether they pay their full dues over the absent period and where they pay those dues!

by living abroad, it is a matter of fact that they will avoid paying uk income tax
whether or not you regard that as part of their "full dues" is a matter of opinion, though personally, i do not see why they should get a vote

for that matter, i don't think prisoners jailed for crimes with a tariff of say 7 years or more (an arbitrary period) should get a vote either