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Good morning all>

DilI am just a lucky thickobut I have been lucky trading up and down on betfair.. mostly horses for many yearsI use my luck by compiling the odds of competitive handicaps and forming my own tissue a day before the racethe official handicapper is only a point of viewthe same as my thoughts?I take into account the horses current ratingwith conditionswhich include goingstiff/easy trackleft/right track etcform of others going into the racehow the form of others has compared coming out of previous raceshow many races an individual horse takesto come to himselfbig strong sprinters with a big back endcan usually carry weight a lot better than lightly framed animalsand so can carry penalties a lot easierand many more factors or possibilitiessick stablesform stables/jockeys and apprenticesthe average punter on betfair will be looking at official ratingstrainers/jockeys and current form and thats it!!!
To give you a recent exampleI backed and traded a horse many times on the totesport handicap on Saturdaythe horse was called Highland Legacyit finished 8th of 23 at 16/1...I wont go into too much detailbut the odds offered early doors were mouth-wateringliquidity in the market is a problembut patience and the ability to want to play long hours is rewarding.but as alwaysthe lucky formula in racing is research and knowledge

Dilyour favourite subjectXfactor..this was my post in response to Jeff.
tabasco -
jeffmack - 04 Oct 2009 20:51 - 8067 of 8100
Tabby
You being such an expert on X factor. Who will win this year?

JeffI have not ignored your questionover the last few weeks I have built up a nice stake in one artist.and a reasonable saver on another.my fancy to win it is the best punt since Will Youngwho did do me a big favour some years ago
My savour would be a stake on Joseph.reasonliked by all the judgeswhich is important as they currently choose the loser each week.majority of voters are teen girlsand a loved by grannies personalitylarge double figure odds were availablebetfair are now at 5.0 second fav.
Now my best puntcould be an arsehole?could be a rebel?could be a sh*tI cant tellundoubtedly the best talent by a cosmoshad a scare then had a sulk this weekI have taken a good punt in the hope Cowell sorts himI am confident that he is Cowells No1...I am equally sure he is Louis Walshs favourite outside of the twinsand they cannot winon a negative side Cheryl dont like himthe name is Danyl Cowell has picked songs that have clearly not been Danyls fancyand I believe he is going to be cut loose over the next few weeksbuilt up a good stakeand fifth fancy 8.2 is still readily available and will prove a good trade if you want safe in coming weeksdyorbut I am filling my boots.
---------------------------------
Danyls price is as we speak is 4.7.not bad from the 8.2 when posted? I am already well in on JosephI use the lucky formula once again

Good day chaps.

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good luck

Good morning all>

A bit of fun this week...This Saturday is the 6th elimination on Xfactorodds for elimination at this time are:-

Lloyd Back 2.42 42 2.44 29 2.46 4 Lay 2.58 2 2.6 8 2.62 2
John and Edward Back 3.25 315 3.3 2 3.35 21 Lay 3.4 309 3.45 29 3.5 459
Jamie Back 5.7 56 5.8 8 5.9 2 Lay 6 2 6.2 2 6.4 9
Joseph Back 26 8 28 35 29 4 Lay 30 2 34 3 36 30
Stacey Back 21 75 22 8 25 4 Lay 32 5 34 14 38 2
Danyl Back 13 9 13.5 31 14 2 Lay 15 8 16 16 38 2
Olly Back 42 2 44 8 50 4 Lay 65 10 70 13 75 10


One bet only for myself this weekI have been backing Jamie to get the hook all weekthis wont be tradable I have an average of 6.1...and he is still around 6. For small amounts with Lloyd around 6/4 fav. Jedward at 9/4.the front pair are around fours on coupledI have a real strong feeling Jamie will be crying or kwiying this weekno saver for me just a straight puntJamie to godyor

Do they leave it "in play" once the bottom two have been announced ?

Given last weeks debacle when SC refused to put the best (only) singer through in the bottom two then it might be an idea to get out asap if he makes the bottom two and it's still in play.

I think the whole competition is a joke.

DilSC is all about moneythe show will get more viewers and so more phone revenue with controversylast weeks decision from the leading so-called expert was a jokebut it did not surprise me or friends or familythe two clowns have a massive Irish followingto which you will see in force this week!! we usually watch the program recordedbut I am pretty certain they suspend the market from the time the bottom two are announced

I totally agree with you re last weeks decision being about viewers/money. I have argued all along that it was SC who put them through to boot camp and SC who insisted they make the final 12 and had sweet fa to do with what LW wanted.

The sing off last two weeks running has made a mockery of the whole sing off idea ... both weeks the worst act got through for the reason you stated as the judges couldn't / wouldn't do what they are supposed to do.

For this reason I've steered clear of betting on it.

Jamie is:-
back 3.6 27 3.7 40 3.860 lay 3.95 20 4 50 4.1 62 at this present time to be eliminatedthat was a bit of luckand fingers crossed he goes tonight

My 5 is on Lloyd to go this week. Betfair also have him as favourite to be evicted.

I have another 5 on it but currently it's split 2.50/2.50 on either Stacey or Joe McElderry to win the whole thing.

In a couple of years time, when he's a bit more confident and mature, Lloyd Daniels is going to be a big star. He can sing amazingly well, but is blatantly still too lacking in several other respects, particularly to do with 'personal confidence issues'.

The twins are just a fashion item and like all 'fashionable things' they are quickly going to go out of date. I think they will be 'has beens', easily within a couple of years - or maybe even less. Now that Simon has admitted to finding them more agreeable, there's not so much fun in keeping them in.

This last weekend was about 'Queen' and Jamie did a great 'Freddy Mercury job' with his rendition of 'Radio Ga Ga'. Will it keep him in though? I don't know.

Cleaned up on Xfactor last weeksee post 10381...great bet coming up this weekand what with the jungle startingluvely jubbly.

Im A Celebrity>

Have a look at the price of Sabrina Washingtonhuge prices offered 70+ for small amountsshe is in a three way vote off with Jimmy White and Sam Foxif she escapes the public vote tonightthat price will be very tradableI dont think she can winas Gino DAcampo has more than a favourites chanceI have a good bet at nice prices on Kim Woodburn that I haveand will continue to tradebut Sabrina is a silly priceshe is a lovely girl with a great personalityand that little bit of luuuuvvve with Stuart will get her many votesa great girl.I think Jimmy might go tonightbut have made my bets on Sabrina...

Most punters on these reality shows believe only the obvious will happenif you swerve the obvious some fantastic odds present themselves.Sabrina was 7/4 to get voted out last night.and 75/1 to win the contestI did hint that no way was she going to go and is now 31/1 to win the contestcrazy?but thank you very much
The Xfactor tonight is difficult to find a value bet Lloyd is around 4/5 to goDanyl just under 3s and 8/1 bar the twoI already hold good punts on Danyl and Joseph to win the competition at far greater pricesand will stickLloyd will almost certainly be in the bottom twoand with Walsh and Cowell almost a banker to vote against himit will be hard this week to look elsewherenot odds-on for me

Danni in fairness always saves the best singer so Lloyd really looks up against it.

Gino DAcampo is now trading at 4/6 to windont say much for his six rivalsthen there is the possibility that he might be unwell with jungle conditionsand have to leavewho knows?a strong favourite I agree but a crazy short priceand around 5/4 can be achieved coupling up the other six playersyou can also get 10s bar twoand with the knowledge that George has spoken sincerely about walking out.his 20% of the book would then have to be factored infood for thought?
Apologise for getting the format wrong on XfactorI did not realise that it was a total vote result SaturdayGod bless ya the outcome was good

George is drifting like the Kon-Tiki.get on quick folkshe must be walking!!!

The market always knows

4/9 Dacampo 17/2 bar.most of Georges drifting price trimmed off Genotradable value on others

Betfair unavailable Tuesday 1st Dec from 03:00am 11:00am

Sabrina is currently 1/2 for elimination tonightwith Justin at 7/4...the winner market also points to her leaving tonightI have traded her and still stand to lose money if she goesbut?at over 80/1 to win the Jungle and with only five other runnersI have been nibbling with a little more hard earned lolif she makes it tonight her odds will be slashed by around 60%giving instant successand a strong position I believe she is odds against leaving tonight and disagree with the marketstill tight though? I have backed Kim from the beginningand traded so do have more than a saverGeorges departure has helpedand if Gino gets a stomach bugnot too seriousthings would look very sweetGino has touched 2/7 todaythis is light hearted fun and earning at the same timefor the serious postersplease dont grizzlejust squelch!

Im A Celebrity odds are now around 2/13 Gino 87% of book11/2 the other three coupled 16% of bookGino and Kim are the only two that have 100% success rate with public votingJimmy the second fav at 13/1 was in the bottom two last night and behind Justin using current voting as the form line Justin is 31/1.Kim who I have held and traded from the beginning is 15/1...I will wait for one more elimination and review the situationif I have one?whoever is in the last two with Gino surely cannot be larger than 8s?that would make Gino around 1/10...

tabasco

I love your take on this. Thank you for your comments. Please keep posting.