rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

must have been skinny then i guess

because, ahoj, i don't think it would stand up to scrutiny.
it seems to be accepted that more and more people have become self-employed ..... it follows that they will have nearly always set themselves up as companies

have taken some profits on this surge.

h, am hoping it's going to run until friday, so buttocks clenched until then!

harry - put in a trailing stop

No shit Sherlock!

Bigger fights loom after U.S. "fiscal cliff" deal

WASHINGTON | Thu Jan 3, 2013 6:30am GMT

(Reuters) - President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans face even bigger budget battles in the next two months after a hard-fought "fiscal cliff" deal narrowly averted devastating tax increases and spending cuts.

The agreement, approved late on Tuesday by the Republican-led House of Representatives and signed by Obama on Wednesday, was a victory for the president, who had won re-election in November on a promise to address budget woes, partly by raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans.

But it set up potentially bruising showdowns over the next two months on spending cuts and an increase in the nation's limit on borrowing. Republicans, angry the fiscal cliff deal did little to curb the federal deficit, promised to use the debt-ceiling debate to win deep spending cuts next time.

Republicans believe they will have greater leverage over Democrat Obama when they must consider raising the borrowing limit in February because failure to close a deal could mean a default on U.S. debt or another downgrade in the U.S. credit rating. A similar showdown in 2011 led to a credit downgrade.

"Our opportunity here is on the debt ceiling," Republican Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania said on MSNBC. "We Republicans need to be willing to tolerate a temporary, partial government shutdown, which is what that could mean."

There is much to be said regarding what did and what did not happen on Capitol Hill over the frantic New Year sessions but in essence what has happened is that Bush-era temporary tax cuts have now become Obama-era permanent tax cuts on those earning less than $400K ($450K jointly), thus adding some $4tr to the deficit over the next decade. Clearly the US looked at the idea of living within its means and didn’t like what it saw. House Rep speaker Mr John Boehner stated that, “The Federal government has a spending problem that has led to a $16tr national debt that threatens our country’s future.” Too right John. The focus of the debate now turns to spending cuts on which no progress has been made (but don’t tell the algos!). Note too that, unofficially, the US just broke through its debt ceiling just as markets were hailing the fiscal equivalent of three weeks worth of Fed debt monetisation.

i'm no economist nor even an accountant, but the 2 sides of the argument look to be along these lines .....

REPUBLICANS
Keep low or even lower taxes to allow people to spend money as they wish.
Cut benefits and thus massively lower federal spending

C says - that smacks of "Who cares if the poorest 25/30% of the population sink even lower. They don't contribute much anyway."


DEMOCRATS
Raise taxes, but not make them draconian
Pump even more money into the system and hope that that kickstarts the economy, the increased activity, and thus tax-take being used to lower the deficit (eventually), leading to greater (perceived) well-being and confidence across the board.

C says - it's a dangerous ploy, but in my mind the better option. By good fortune, the US economy (and many other too) is now picking up - see the assorted house building stats - and unless the Republicans end up screwing the country for their own self-interest, a version of this latter proposal looks to be the better, albeit that the Day of Reckoning may just be kicked further or even a long way down the road

Neither side agrees on a solution or way forward as both sides are career politicians. Democrats and Repubicans alike will do what they believe will gain them the most votes and not whats right for the country.

The problem however remains the same. The US simply spends far more than it makes and is heavily in debt. Debt repayments are the reason why its slashed interest rates and has resorted to financing its borrowing by printing money. This policy in turn can not continue without weakening the strength of the dollar which in turn affects wealth and inflation.

The US is recovering is what the headlines say, and any rise in taxes or cut in spending will push the recovery back into recession. This is complete crap, theres no real recovery happening in the US right now. The US is heavily borrowing and printing money, its this stimulation thats keeping positive figures coming. Stop feeding the fire and we'll see just how long it takes to go out.

From a economics point of view taxes should be raised to balance the books and spending cut. Or increase interest rates so the banks start stimulating the economy. Either of these policies would bring around hardship, and political suicide, but ultimatly have to be done sooner or later.

was it Nero who fiddled while Rome burned?

Different kind of fiddling! :-)

US will NOT stop printing money and it is a matter of fact, that whatever the impetus, the US economy is now showing signs of life ...... as is China (in particular)

there is also no chance whatsoever that US will impose a harsh regime of spending cuts and/or rises in interest rates. That course would plunge US into recession, and take the rest of the world in its wake.

thus we will see yet another round of self-interested brinkmanship and yet another sticking-plaster solution put in place ....... the process to which is all specifically designed to create a heavily volatile market!

I think its a matter of course Cynic, how much money can the US print before it becomes a bad credit risk? How much debt will the world allow the US before their deemed and rated as a high risk of default? At what point will inflation soar and wealth be erroded as a result of increasing dollar supply? The time will come and history will repeat itself...

U.S. stock-index futures traded flat to slightly lower Thursday, with investors prepared to sift for clues to the Federal Reserve's next monetary-policy move a day after ringing in the new year with a historic relief rally inspired by a deal to avert the so-called fiscal cliff. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 21 points, or 0.2%, to 13,311, while S&P 500 Index futures lost 3.5 points to 1,453.60. Nasdaq 100 futures shed 2 points, or 0.1%, to 2,736.75. The Federal Reserve will release minutes of its Dec. 11-12 meeting at 2 p.m. U.S. EST. At that meeting, the Fed pledged to keep interest rates at near-zero levels so long as the unemployment rate is above 6.5% and provided inflation in the year or two ahead is below 2.5%. While the move was seen as a more aggressive response by the Fed, it also offered the clearest exit strategy yet for withdrawing stimulus once the economy is clearly on the mend, said Ilya Spivak, strategist at DailyFX. That means "traders will be keen to scour the release for clues about the possibility of a sooner-than-expected withdrawal of accommodation," Mr. Spivak said in a note to clients. "While it is unclear whether investors would treat this as risk-supportive (in that it would imply a stronger U.S. economy) or risk-negative (in that it would foreshadow the removal of Fed support for the recovery), the reaction will be interesting to monitor in that it will set the tone for the markets' reaction to Friday's jobs report and forthcoming U.S. data in general," he said. Stocks surged Wednesday, with the Dow posting its biggest ever first-session-of-the-year point rise. Investors cheered a last-minute deal between the White House and congressional Republicans to avoid a combination of steep spending cuts and tax hikes that economists feared would push the U.S. back into recession. But analysts cautioned against getting carried away in the euphoria. While policy makers agreed on measures to avert the bulk of the tax hikes, the automatic spending cuts were merely delayed by two months. And the issue of the debt ceiling is also yet to be resolved. "The final package holds enough for both the bears--given that we will have to revisit the fiscal worries in the next few months--and for the bulls--who believe that the near-term risks have been pushed aside," said Joanna Shatney, head of large-cap equities at London-based asset management firm Schroders. Ahead of the Fed minutes, investors will get a look at two jobs reports that may hold clues to Friday's all-important monthly nonfarm payrolls data. Economists polled by MarketWatch expect payroll firm Automatic Data Processing Inc. to report private-sector payrolls rose by 149,000 in December after a rise of 118,000 in November. ADP data is due at 8:15 a.m. EST. U.S. jobless-claims data, set for release at 8:30 a.m. EST, are expected to show first-time applications for benefits rose to 360,000 in the week ended Dec. 29 versus 350,000 the previous week.

post 10405 is probably correct hypothetically or otherwise ..... however, that time has not yet come and nor is it likely to even within the next 12/24 months

on that basis, this particular doom scenario can be set to one side for "our" purposes - i.e. making money on the markets

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 215k consensus 134K previous 118K

USD Unemployment Claims 372K consensus 356K previous 350K

dow shrugs and says, "so what; we having other things on which to concentrate"

EUR German Retail Sales m/m 1.2% consensus 0.9% previous -1.3%

EUR Spanish Services PMI 44.3 consensus 42.7 previous 42.4

EUR Italian Services PMI 45.6 consensus 45.1 previous 44.6

cash Dow is still amazingly strong - extraordinary, or at least i think so