I am sure most peeps will know this is my favourite airline - I fly them and I buy them.

Currently I hold a quarter unit as a longer term investment which is also useful for shareholder benefits.

I will be looking to substantially add at the right time and not afraid to trade them either intraday or more probably as a swing trade.


ains




Shadow of conflict looms large over British Airways as firm fights to recover

TRACEY BOLES - Scotland on Sunday

BRITISH Airways will warn that the prospect of war with Iraq casts a long shadow over its full-year this week when it posts third quarter figures in line with expectations.

Lord Marshall, the BA chairman, is expected to tell analysts that political uncertainty could push the airline, still struggling to recover from the effects of September 11, further into reverse.

"Iraq is a key driver for everything," said a source close to the airline.

BA has admitted privately to analysts that transatlantic bookings for this March are "appalling" as the uncertainty stirred up by the prospect of war exerts an influence. Earnings estimate downgrades are now highly likely.

However, analysts believe a loss for the full year is still not on the cards.

Pre-tax estimates for the full year currently stand at up to 140m. BAs performance, which represents a strong recovery from the 180m loss posted in the equivalent quarter after September 11, has been driven by a vigorous cost-cutting programme rather than by revenue, which is still flat.

It will announce tomorrow that it is on track to achieve cost savings of 450m by the end of March through a process of shedding jobs and loss-making routes under its future size and shape strategy.

By the end of next month 10,000 jobs will have gone under the programme. "BA has weathered the storm better than most by getting costs under control," said one analyst. "In Europe, only Iberia has done likewise."

Third quarter operating profits are expected to be around 30m to 40m, in line with analysts expectations, with pre-tax figures between a 10m loss and 5m profit. The consensus is break even.

The airline has impressed experts by taking the threat posed by low-cost carriers seriously.

Geopolitical and economic problems are affecting demand air travel, especially on long-haul routes. BAs premium services are still under pressure, recent traffic figures revealed.

A speedy Gulf war will lead to a relief rally for the airline sectors shares which are depressed at the moment. However, BA itself has warned that prolonged conflict could trigger a slump in aviation equivalent to that seen after September 11.

Chris Tarry, former aviation analyst at Commerzbank who now runs CTAIRA said: "I believe that the last quarter has been very tough on the revenue side and indeed they have indicated this themselves.

"Unfortunately the outlook is no better - even without a war. The reality of the economic situation in the UK was underlined with the rate cut.

"Add to that the structural downward shift in fare levels and then the uncertainty over war - it doesnt bode well.

"Furthermore, given the uncertainty caused by Iraq let alone an actual war, it is pretty clear that the transatlantic market will be dire in the summer."

BA has traditionally depended on transatlantic traffic for its revenue.

Shells chairman, Sir Philip Watts, also admitted last week that the oil giant was preparing for "uncertain times" ahead.

He said Shell had looked at the range of possibilities that could occur and had "a plan for every eventuality".

08 Mar 2003 08:19 GMT

Government set to offer airlines war insurance

LONDON (Reuters) - The government is preparing emergency legislation to provide insurance for airlines flying to the Middle East if their insurers withdraw cover in the event of war with Iraq, the Financial Times has reported.
Insurers cancelled cover for airlines after the September 11 attacks, forcing the government to underwrite emergency insurance to ensure they were not grounded.

But that underwriting agreement expired in October last year and airlines are again using privately provided insurance.

The Financial Times quoted unnamed government sources as saying ministers were preparing the legislation.

"We are aware of the dangers and there's a contingency plan," an official was quoted as telling The Financial Times.

Without government underwriting, many airlines like British Airways, EasyJet and Virgin Atlantic would face soaring premiums or complete withdrawal of insurance if a war with Iraq triggered terror attacks.

Already struggling with slumping demand for business travel and higher fuel prices, airline profits would be further hit if a war started and insurance premiums soared.

March 09, 2003

BA hands southwest routes to airport owner
Dominic OConnell S TIMES



BRITISH AIRWAYS is to transfer part of its regional network to Sutton Harbour Holdings, the quoted property firm that owns Plymouth City airport.
BA is understood to be in talks to sell its fleet of Dash-8 turboprop aircraft to Sutton Harbour, which will start up an airline, expected to be called Air South West. The launch may be as early as this summer.

The new regional carrier will be run by Malcolm Naylor, an industry veteran and a former managing director of Brymon Airways, a BA subsidiary that served the West Country.

Brymon was last year subsumed into BA CitiExpress, the umbrella company for all BAs regional operations in Britain. Naylor joined Sutton Harbour in November as head of aviation strategy.

The transfer is part of a wider shake-up of BA regional operations spearheaded by Rod Eddington, chief executive. In December The Sunday Times revealed that some regional routes were to be axed in a reprise of the future size and shape review that led to the airline shedding 13,000 staff. BA subsequently announced plans to drop 21 regional services.

BA and Sutton Harbour yesterday declined to comment.

Meanwhile, internal management documents seen by The Sunday Times show that Buzz, the low-cost airline that is being sold to Ryanair by KLM, lost almost 3m in January.

The report reveals that the airline had a load factor proportion of seats sold of only 48.3% during the month, 22% below budget. Scheduled operations loss is approximately 220,000 worse than January 02 and a 1m deterioration against budget, it says.

A bulletin sent to Buzz staff on Thursday said KLM intended to close Buzz on April 1 if the sale to Ryanair did not go ahead. We will shortly be writing informally to advise the Department of Trade and Industry of this information, it said.

Ryanair plans to employ 180 of Buzzs 600 staff. All employees received job offers or redundancy notices on Friday and those offered posts have a week to accept. If too few accept, Ryanair has said it will close the company, and operate some of the Buzz routes itself.

I flew BA shuttle to and from Scotland (Glasgow) today. Aircraft fairly full on way up (Airbus A319, 126 seats). Evening flight back (last flight of the day) was 122 aboard. If they can maintain those load factors, that route would be doing just fine profitwise.

MM

There you go ....... they are running a whole series of new marketing promtions and ads ..... but war is gettinfg a little closer...... but once it's over




ains

holding their own today - I am wondering if there will be any serious dip on war starting .....


ains



BRUSSELS (AFX) - The European Commission said it has approved the cooperation agreement between British Airways PLC and SN Brussels Airlines.
The commission said it has approved the partnership for six years.

The alliance could have eliminated competition on the Brussels-Manchester route, but the two companies are taking measures to conserve choice, the Commission said.

The carriers undertook to release enough slots at Brussels airport for a new entrant to operate three daily services to Manchester.

ed/sml/wf

Capital Group have dropped 11.2 million shares but retain 74 million


ains

"Pleased I fly BA" , ainsoph, I thought Why had established that you don't actually fly BA? you can't be surprised that he is irritated if you don't answer his simple question. , you do cut and paste a lot tho' don't you?!

I fly BA quite a lot and have not seen any deterioration in their 'service'. I am not, as you, so pro them tho' and can't really understand what the attraction is? I will fly with any airline that has the right price and right schedule. The only thing that I won't do any more is travel 4 hours to Stansted to fly cheaply, (although Liverpool is very convenient).

Most people these days couldn't give a flying fk what the service is like as long as it is cheap, reliable and gets them there on time.

OBTW excuse my ignorance but what is a quarter unit?

niggle

LOL - Ainsoph uncovered as a liar and a charlatan again!! LOL, your ramping isnt heard by Ashsteads favourite suitor Capital droup who flogged 11.3M today, Im still short, and have been 4 long enough 4 it to somewhat bolster my P ;)
AND AINSOPH, I belive Ive spelt your name correctly No? I suppose your not really worthy of a Capital letter though!?

niggle - I don't do question and answer stuff from 'why' or others in his group and really don't care whether he is irritated or not. How frequently I fly or not is my business but as it happens I will be using them 4 times in the next 9 days .... as for how many times I cut and paste - not sure what your point is .... I read something and it takes me a few seconds to let everyone else read it ...... if it's too much info for you - don't read it. I will not be upset in any way.

I appreciate some peeps buy everything on price - always a market for the LCD or price but personally I do care who I fly with and whilst wanting value for money - I prefer to discriminate on other things like service - convenience and safety.

As far as the shares are concerned - they have to live and stand on the way the market perceives them and how well they do in the sales market ..... which is how it should be. I am making money - so they must be OK

I buy shares and trade in units - I hold anything from 40 to 55 positions and there is need for some sort of system .... I held a quarter unit in BAY and increased to half a unit within a range from a quarter to say 4. I intend to take my holding up to around 2 units


ains





tpaulbeaumont I really don't care whether you are short or not - I am breaking evens on my current trading and it was bought out of profits from the last time I traded. As for my name - it's spelt ainsoph

tpaulbeaumont - 09 Mar'03 - 21:34 - 6 of 14 edit





Ainsoph - 09 Mar'03 - 20:41 - 136 of 137

Ok, I've had enough of shamelessly ramping my stocks, and deluding investors to bouy my gapping losses. I cant think of words that could redeem my actions, I can only say I am Sorry, and that I could of made alot of money if I'd have shorted the stocks I was long. shorters are not evil, quite the contrary. The reason I've been so stuborn and misleading in the past is because I was jealous, I have lost alot of my money and my familys, and it has taken its toll on my mental health, I have been bitter and lied in the past but again I am sorry for verbaly lashing out, please accept my apology anyone who feels its relevant/due. In fact I may short sell TAD, it is a dog after all.

































Carlsberg don't do cut n pastes, but if they did, they'd Probably be the best in the world!
;D



ainsoph - 10 Mar'03 - 08:11 - 10 of 14




I see your research and credibility are up to your usual standard tpaulbeaumont ..... you couldn't even get the spelling of my name right ...... duh


SOMEONES CONFUSED.
THANK YOU.

Ad of the Week: BA lays it on the line
(Filed: 11/03/2003)


Advertiser BA

Agency M&C Saatchi


Background Life must be tough working for a flag carrier like BA. On the one hand there's a constant battering from the likes of easyJet and Ryanair at the bottom end of the market.

On the other, the worldwide slowdown has hit the more lucrative business travel sector hard. And that's before we even get to a war in the Gulf, with who-knows-what effect on travel, business or otherwise.

It's the kind of market in which mere survival is a triumph. So the idea of product innovation seems a bit pointless at the moment. Why bother making things better if no one's going to fly anyway?

BA at least is not a subscriber to this mode of thought. Its latest innovation is the completely flat bed, now available on all business class flights. Bravely perhaps in the current climate, it is out selling the message to its target business flyer market.

What happens It's night in Times Square. A bed sits on the sidewalk. A fully clothed man gets into it. Next we see the bed in Piccadilly Circus. It's dawn. Bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, the man gets out and walks off. The signature music, by Delibes, kicks in.

Comment Advertising always works better when it has a clear product benefit to sell. There's no doubting the message here, which is brutally simple: BA is the only airline with flat beds. Even a half-wit can understand that means you get a better sleep

Guardian Diary - It makes a change to hear British Airways announcing a new route, but the world's second favourite airline (after Lufthansa) is soon to offer departures from London to Tashkent, capital city of Uzbekistan. As a novel alternative to Tuscany or the Dordogne for this summer's holidays, Uzbekistan is hard to beat. Where, in the restaurants of Bergerac or Siena, can you buy decent plov - wok-fried mutton, yellow turnip and rice - to match that of old Tashkent? And at 1,535 soms to the pound, you'll love those crazy Uzbeki prices. BA are surely on to a winner here.

I still don't know what a quarter unit is, how many shares is it?

That's my business ...... I don't ask you what you earn and I don't say what I trade .... It's not the British way ..... everything is relative - a million to me may be the same as a thousand to you or vikiverki




ains

Trader ainsey,

what a track record! Have you thought about setting up a shorting fund ?

F

my track record on BAY is excellant and have lots of profits to build up a stake .... suggest you go and do some research or at least read the thread before further comment

I have an order in for sub 9Op and will take my holding to 0.75 units



ains

ains, stop it, you're making me laugh too much :-))

i'm a quarter shorter as of this morning :-))

Have a look at this post snappy and look at your comments above ..... see what I mean? :-))




ainsoph - 11 Mar'03 - 11:02 - 583 of 583 edit



sooner the better snappy ..... in the meantime it's probably best you don't comment and mislead peeps - either on the maths or the brokers notes.

As for you being ahead of anything - that hasn't come through at all - your posts are banal - misleading and carry no original info or thinking .... to be frank



ains

What was that magic staement u made about BT.A Ains.....

LOL - where have u been recently on BAY Ains?