Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Dontcha just hate it when Odie plays silly buggers.

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--A combination of stronger stocks and central bank meetings will support the euro against the dollar next week.

Risk appetite is back in play with the rally in U.S. equities this week. That means traders are eager to sell safe-haven assets like the dollar in the short term.

The dollar is also bid to turn weaker ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee policy decision on Wednesday. Although currency analysts don't expect the Fed to announce that it will start buying Treasury bonds yet, a strategy known as quantitative easing, the possibility will keep the dollar subdued.

Analysts say the euro should break through the $1.30 level in the coming week. The Swiss National Bank's declared intention to buy euros when necessary to prevent appreciation of the franc also functions a source for support for the single currency.

However, analysts warn that the safe haven trade isn't totally over. Market sentiment may have hit a bottom, but that doesn't signify the U.S. economy has hit a bottom.

"To truly put in a bottom, we need to have the financial sector stabilized and functioning. We'll need more than relief from a near death experience for this to occur," said Andrew Busch, global foreign exchange strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago.

Meanwhile, with the Bank of Japan also meeting next week, and questions swirling about quantitative easing there, bets on yen will be sparse. In addition, after the SNB intervention Thursday, traders are hesitant pushing up the yen in case the BOJ, which has a history of intervention, considers the same ahead of the fiscal year end this month.

Therefore, with caution surrounding both the yen and dollar, the yen is expected to trade sideways versus the greenback next week, in the range it has carved through March, Y95.0 to Y100.0

The U.K. pound is seen remaining in a weakened state after the Bank of England began purchasing gilts this week. Ahead of this first round of quantitative easing, the U.K. pound hit a six-week low of $1.3663. It has since recovered some, but uncertainty on the effects of this process creates downside risks for the pound. In the longer run, the pound should appreciate if the BOE program is effective, but the market will need time to assess its success.

Friday morning in New York, the euro was at $1.2878 from $1.2924 late Thursday, and the dollar was at Y97.98 from Y97.63, according to EBS. The euro was at Y126.22 from Y126.20. The U.K. pound was at $1.3931 from $1.3955, and the dollar was at CHF1.1881 from CHF1.1844 Thursday.

Currencies aren't expected to move on developments out of the meeting of the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers this weekend, ahead of the G20 summit on April 2.

The outcome of the summit, said to be pushed by the U.K. and U.S but opposed by euro-zone countries, is widely seen as more fiscal stimulus measures and a pledge for more money for the International Monetary Fund to help emerging market nations. If this scenario does occur, strategists say it is largely priced into the market already.

Jeff - that brings back happy memories of ploughing through vm dumps - sigh.

What have Odie done to you, me little Chocopops?

Fiber shorts halved, Falco.

You should be able to relax the Gonad Grip soon.

Certainly getting very contorted and red in the face now Hilary! My guess is Dow to reach 7500-800, euro to rise in sympathy to 130-31and then tank along with the dow on risk aversion once more.

Italys February-Final CPI confirmed at +0.2% m/m, 1.6% y/y

Japan Government: Economy is worsening rapidly, in a severe state

Euro zone February- Final CPI confirmed at +0.4% m/m, 1.2% y/y

Barcalys report “strong” start to the year

Risk sentiment is improving with sterling and the euro beneficiaries. Sterling has done especially well. Cable has put on the best part of two full cents this morning. Stop loss buy orders were triggered at 1.4075/80, 1.4110 and 1.4190 accelerating the move higher. “Russian” interest and a “large UK corporate ” got the ball rolling early. EUR/USD has also made some decent gains, the move there accelerating as stops above 1.3000 were triggered.

Global stockmarkets are doing well, with banking and financial stocks leading the way. In the UK shares of Barclays surged as the bank reported a “strong” start to the year. Citibank, Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase have also all said they made money in the first two months of 2009.

Fed Chairman Bernanke helped sentiment. In his “60 Minutes” appearance he said should the government succeed in calming financial markets, then the U.S. recession will probably end this year. The official said “green shoots” are appearing in some markets aided by the Fed and there has been “some improvement” in banks.

Meanwhile the G20 did their bit. The Worlds’ top finance ministers and central bankers pledged to restore bank lending strength, financial regulations and boost funding to the IMF.

Has anyone done FXBootcamp? I jsut wondered if it was any good?

Sue, I joined them for a couple of months when I first attempted forex, a couple of years ago.

At the time (it might of changed) their strategy was based upon the following :

EMA 5 (based on close) and SMA 8 (based upon OPEN) cross

Take notice of the 21 and 55 EMA

MACD 21,55,8

Stochastics 8,5,3

PIVOTS (they love pivots), Fibonacci Levels amd Trendlines.

This was based mainly on 15 and 5 minute charts. You had to take notice of a 5/8 cross on the hourly though.

I have to say I still use the 5/8 cross although I take more notice of the 50SMA and 200 EMA.

It might have changed, but the lessons were only made available gradually. So you had to subscribe for a few months to work your way through all of the online course. As a beginner the course was very good - no complaints.

The online trading sessions are not a signals service. They do not tell you when to take a trade. Which in one respect is good, you have to do some work yourself.

However, having described a setup they were very good at explaining why the setup might fail. So many times I sat here thinking they had binned the trade only to find later that they were bragging about the number of pips they had made having taken the trade.

Quite often their end of day videos bore no resemblance to the live trading chatter whatsoever. They could always say they spotted a good trade setup but never committed at the time to actually taking it - which did leave them with an opt out later ;-)

You also have to listen to how good a golfer Wayne is, and what a great car he drives ............

If you are debating a subscription Wayne does a live broadcast on FxStreet for Non Farm Payrolls. That will give you a good impression of whether you would gain anything from their live 'classes'.

There are a lot of Bootcamp videos on YouTube where you can see their setup logic.

They are definitely not rip off merchants. I did learn a lot about Forex in a short space of time. The usefulness of their live trading sessions I would say is debatable.

Thanks qwento

I started listening to the non-farm payroll - about 2 so far - which is what got me interested. I do agree that they seem to claim successful trades when that isn't what they say before - so for example on the non-farm payroll last time it rose (cable) before the announcement & then fell off but they claimed the rise!

Also I seem to be getting daily videos - but eg yesterday they were talkong about the yen & then did an after event on cable - claiming loads of points!

Out of interest - how much does it cost? I don't want to ask them as I will get bombarded by sales stuff I think!

My tuppeneth for what it's worth.

Trading Forex is no different to trading stocks or commodities or index futures or fruit and veg from a market stall. If you can trade one item from that list, you'll be able to trade all of the items. And if you can't trade one of those items, it's no use even pretending that you're a trader because the only person that you're fooling is yourself.

So, with that in mind, I have to question whether specific FX training courses are of any use and if a general trader training course wouldn't serve a better purpose. There isn't a holy grail of secret settings for the FX market as such just the same as there isn't for any other market on the list. Sure, there are strategies that work and strategies that don't, but the biggest hurdle that most people face when trading is the screwball thoughts that bounce around inside their heads when they look at a monitor showing their account balance going down.

So, unless this "guru" is some sort of psychotherapist who will help you conquer your fears, I really wouldn't waste your money.

I seem to remember, and it might of changed, it was $399 per month which used to be a lot cheaper when the pound was at BOGOF against the dollar.

I wouldn't necessarily disagree Hilary. However, I think one of the biggest factors in trading any market is confidence. If a short spell looking over somebody's shoulder gives you that confidence then fine.

If you are new to forex then even knowing the best time to trade is a step in the right direction. Unless someone tells you it might take a fair bit of screen watching to work out currency relationships to risk aversion. A newbie may not realise that on some pairs you actually pay overnight interest being short.

What I would say is there is a lot of rubbish out there. FxBootcamp is no doubt one of the better ones, if you ignore some of their claims.

One thing is for sure, there is no holy grail. If Wayne or any other of the 'pros' out there had really found it they wouldn't waste time selling hope to the masses.

I know a lot of you would totally disagree with me but the day I took every indicator off of my screen was the day I started to make money. Reading Elder as my first introduction to trading set me back years.

If you want to save some money Sue and want an extremely good strategy for trading forex then email me through MoneyAM. It's available right now on a web site for free (well, 1p if you pay through Paypal) and no, it is not of my invention. It's not the holy grail, it can only be used in Forex, but it does work time after time :-)

".......... the day I took every indicator off of my screen was the day I started to make money."

You'll be telling me next that all you need to trade is a horizontal line.

:o)

I just use a double headed coin - works wonders ;-)

Qwento - I just emailed you

Not my words ........



Investors are scared stiff that the Fed has cranked up the printing press and inflation is going to run amok. What they are ignoring is the fact that very little of the money that the Fed is pumping into the system is making its way into the real economy.

The Fed is in a unique position at the moment; they are THE central counterpart for the US money markets. They know where EVERY body is buried. They can gauge the health of the money markets to an extent they have never been able to before. Once banks start withdrawing excess reserves from the Fed and putting them to work in a big way, the Fed can start to shrink the balance sheet. It’s like playing poker and being able to see all the hands. This should allow the Fed to ward off inflation before it can take hold.

My guess is we have a knee-jerk rally for a day or two followed by a reassessment. Markets will either turn decidedly toward reflation or they will fail. If reflation is the trade, the dollar will fall. If risk aversion returns, the dollar will rise regardless of the aggressive move toward quantitative ease.

The Fed is betting on risk aversion; they would not be making this audacious move if they were not extremely concerned that the economy is going to worsen and stay weak potentially for years to come.

How will we know if the reflation trade is for real? Oil will break and hold above $50 and likely move quickly higher; Gold will slide back below $890 and stocks will rally like we’ve never seen in our lifetimes.

When are they going to start digging up the Euro bodies?It's behaving like Teflon Tony

Well I never - I had 2 cable longs running. One was stopped out and the other closed for a profit - I certainly didn't expect that after such a down day!

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
Why do I keep dabbling in currencies?Glutton for punishment

One of my systems opened a cable short about 30 seconds beore the Fed, Flossie. It took out about half my profits from a USD/JPY short that I'd also had running for most of the day.