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Scrip,

I,too, would be very interested in your proposal.

Having been on betfair for the last few months I've recently been trying to second guess what the change in the odds would be during a game especially towards the latter stages as I often try to squeeze out exta ticks during this point.

A more accurate prediction of the odds would certainly be of benefit to me.

OK, That's giving me some impetus to push forward. I will trial backtest and trial the formula live. Hopefully I can finish testing by the end of the month. I have been applying the data to some historic matches. The standard error over the course of a match is pretty minor about 0.20% with a tiny STDEV.

One curiousity it has thrown up is I think there is a good opportunity trading extra time. I'll monitor this but as soon as you have an idea on what the extra time is the odds need to be rebased. I really haven't watched the effect of this before but depending on the current score there can often need to be a big re-pricing. I guess if you get a seat near the fourth official at a match you would know ahead of the market what the likely added time would be. A quick call to your mate on Betfair and it would be an easy 10%. Somehow though I guess the market will probably try and price this in ahead of time.

Don't know, but would be an interesting thing to watch.

Have I missed something here but why are Portugal being offered at 3.1 against the Rep of Ireland? I always thought of Portugal as a pretty good team. Certainly better than the odds currently imply. Maybe many of their key players are missing or something but seems rather strange to me.

Scrip,

Slightly off topic - I'm interested in reading a basic book on probability that's relevant to trading and betting, and a friend recommended a book 'An intro to probability theory' Vol 1 by William Feller (Fellow?). What's do you think?

D.

There's an excellent Maths site here. It tells you quite a lot about probability and chance:

Diego, never read that one but will have a look. Richard Haigh, Taking chances is an excellent read if you don't have PHD in maths and want to understand how probability applies to sport.

Doc's web site is useful as well, it's on my bookmarks.

Thanks scrip/Doc. Just looking at your site now Doc.

D.

Afternoon all Betfair traders, Greened up on the ftse daily up/down backed the above @ 2.6 greened on down @ 2.55 for a 57% or 49% profit. My 100.1 back idea did'nt work :o(! pc still on the blink missed the footie OK first thing..

Very good chartist! However you are likely to get better odds by laying the odds under 2 rather than backing above 2. Lay down at 1.63 and green up by laying up at 1.65 would have been the same as your example.

I bet Kayak is on the final 1/2 hour Daily FTSE up/down bet. The question is which side?

:)

Both sides Scrip of course :-)

Of course!! I am green but not even on both so looking for a down.

Down it is. Well done. I layed either side repeatedly, was slightly greener above.

Almost a major upset on the cards on the early footy. Macedonia vs Andorra. Andorra won the corresponding fixture 1-0 last year at 25-1 against. However Macedonia only 1.11 to win at home today.

Some confusion but looks like they scraped through in the final minutes 1-0.

Correction looks like a 0-0 result. Well I never.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/internationals/live_scores/default.stm

16:55 Ludlow, Evens fav drifted from 2.1 to 4's, Pulled up half way around. LOL!

I am thinking of missing the soccer matches this evening as there is little value out there. Worth laying a few at short odds for a shock result maybe. Will keep an eye on them.

Harlosh, Just had a nose at the Rep of Ireland vs Portugal game. Basically the market has resolved such that the odds indicate that Ireland have no advantage over Portugal. There is no goal supremacy between the two teams. The draw could be trading around 2.15-2.20 by half time if the match is still a draw.

Cant believe with 2 overs to go, England need 31 to win with a tail ender facing, yet SA are still 1.11 to win - i would have thought 1.03 would be right - not a trade but a comfortable gamble imo - im on heavily

Well that was the easiest 11% ill ever make