ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

70p Support....90p resistance. Trend line target 120p. JGT

cheers johngtudor - will check it out further
:>)

John: Thanks for update from chartist standpoint but not forgetting the fundamentals! Bollinger Bands are squeezing in. We nearly got a breakout N last week and it could be we will be testing the breakout S. But I agree that what is needed is 'new news'. The key point is that retail spending, whilst down, is also changing in balance between High Street and internet/TV. One would expect that these results will bring this home to commentators which could bring in new buyers. Good volume today, fairly evenly balanced, which will hopefully have shaken out most of the short-term holders.

stockbunny: Good name for an ASOS fan! If you trawl back you will see a number of predictions of sp (forecast may be too strong a word). John Marshall gave good write-up (as a holder) in Shares issue of 16th December. This quoted Seymour Pierce figured for earnings of 1.55m this year and 2.25m next, ie. pe of 36 dropping to 24. These figures are clearly for the business as is and are probably significantly understated if likely developments are taken into account, as quoted: "Over the next 12 months, the range will double to 3000 items. ASOS is sufficiently self-confident to launch own-label womenswear. It will also do more direct sourcing, which should lead to increased margins, and is likely to widen its appeal by issuing gift vouchers." "...ASOS could easily enter the world of TV shopping. It would require a very small investment as its systems would be adequate for the task."

If you follow John Marshall, and it is evident in these quotes, he is a DYOR fan! He checks his comments out with the horse's mouth; thus TV must be on the agenda (as teased out of them by Sandrew above). My very personal forecast for this year would be another 70% jump in turnover but also an increase in margin (ignoring one-off costs in relation to warehouse and IT). The pe could drop to 20. In practise the sp will rise to compensate, with a target of 120p this year. Not wildly exciting but nice to have as a banker!

Eric

Cheers Eric - one thing that did strike me was I wonder when
they will realise that there is another equally good market for
the 35-55's in also targetting celeb. clothing - there are many
really well dressed older women too and this area is not being
currently exploited, as the clothing range is really for younger
ones. Never mind how old Kyle is, most women of that age wouldn't
buy and wear what she does - or at least not in public! LOL!!

70p support has only been in place for a while to my eye, but there has been
support below that a tad also, it seems the early days of
20p a share have gone! I wonder if there's anyone who's been
in these since those early days - if so they've done well!
:>)

I bought at 10.13 bunny and topped up recently at 69 - it has been a good one
(good from a CGT point of view too being AIM):-)

Agree about potential market for slightly older age group............. market
your idea to them :-))

stockbunny

I suspect that would be a good target market, but perhaps it would need a different website (prefer that age range myself!). They are also targetting men but your idea makes sense. First got in at 23p but had lost the first 4-bagger and kicking myself for missing the Shares recommendations. The other upside which I omitted is the possibility of a takeover at some stage. I expect it would be resisted at this stage but as the company matures, and the management have had a surfeit of success, the time will surely come. This Christmas has shown that the internet (TV) has arrived for fashion, as well as books and Xmas pressies in general, so Boards of the High Street leaders must be both worried and wondering. What price - not less than 2.50!

Eric

Certainly looks good for the future :>)

Good to see a happy bunny :>)

FIRST ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO

Final regular report after the 15 weeks of the Portfolio. legend (BNH)wins by a very short head from bosley (SEO). Team are a respectable third with ASC - holding fire for second challenge. The rest needn't to have turned up at the races. Trounced by that good stayer - the small.cap. index. So lesson learnt and on to the second challenge (separate thread). Lots of action left in ASC, I believe, so need the thread to itself. Will keep an eye on this portfolio and report as appropriate. I understand Sandrew is providing one of her fab. dinners in Cornwall for the winner and cornish tea for the runner up!

company_________ EPC pp(p) issue-m shares price val. cap-m gain % gain-wk

Broker Network H BNH 77.50 15.065_ 6450__ 123.5 7966 18.61 59.35_ -3.14
Stanelco________ SEO 4.50_ 782.225 111000 7.125 7909 55.73 58.33_ 11.68
ASOS____________ ASC 56.00 67.97__ 8900__ 78___ 6942 53.02 39.29_ -1.89
Sterling Energy_ SEY 17.25 822.712 29000_ 16.75 4858 137.8 -2.90_ 9.84
Civilian Content CCN 16.25 41.883_ 30700_ 14.5_ 4452 6.07_ -10.77 0.00
Marchpole Hold._ MPH 33.75 120.445 14800_ 27.5_ 4070 33.12 -18.52 -1.79
Yoomedia________ YOO 22.00 499.9__ 22700_ 17.75 4029 88.73 -19.32 2.90
Cybit Holdings__ CYH 91.00 19.779_ 5500__ 69___ 3795 13.65 -24.18 5.34
Petroceltic Intl PCI 15.00 484.975 33300_ 10.5_ 3497 50.92 -30.00 25.30
Petrel Resources PET 124.5 58.625_ 4000__ 52.5_ 2100 30.78 -57.83 -5.83
CFA Capital Gp._ CFP 0.70_ 619.0__ 714000 0.26_ 1856 1.61_ -62.86 -7.14

totals______________________________________________ 51473 -6.41_ 3.08
small cap index_____ 2,596.50______________________ 2846.9 +9.64

The point that strikes me with this week's movements is that there is a lot of life in (most of) these shares. Good recoveries in PCI and SEY, probably linked to the oil price. SEO is on a good uptrend and has broken through its resistance level decisively. CYH stirring. Good news could arrive anytime for PET. CCN, MPH and YOO still in winter hibernation. CFP has had to start again with a new Board. Several worth holding or keeping an eye on. Finally, better luck to us all next time (except legend but including bosley as I'm backing the same horse!)

Eric

I know this is the asos bb and only good things are wanted to be said, but if you are considering buying more asc then ask yourself this question.. why buy asc when they are forecast to make 1.5m and they are valued at 54m on a p/e of 100 when you could buy

Broker Network (BNH) on a p/e of 10 (valued at 19.5m) and will easily make 1.5m profit in Julys results, has 3m cash in the bank. I topped up the other week. In comparison, BNH is 2-3 times undervalued than asc when profits are the same...

If anyone comes back and says brand name or goodwill, yes I will accept that it does exist and because of its intangiability it is impossible to quantify, but how much is goodwill worth if you split a company up??

Yes asc has done exceptionally well - much better than I personally thought - and hats off to those who have done well from it, but isn't it time to move on???

Did you get my request for the competition eric - 20k of Tandem group (TND)How many are in for the comp then??

legend

Good post. Re the challenge I have your buy and will be putting together the portfolio on Sunday evening. With your burgeoning reputation I will give priority to looking at TND! 14 in at the moment and 2 or 3 more expected.

It seems to me that the most difficult factor to take into account when investing is the level of confidence. You have pe, peg, price to sales, etc. but how confident are we that the forecast will stack up? Take the FTSE100; which companies can I see progressing at their present level in 5 years time? My answer: Tesco and HSBC. Why the confidence? Track record; strength in a stable market; proven management; a steady hand which exploits opportunites and avoids mistakes. There you have a 20 year track record. Can we ask the same over 2 to 3 years with an AIM company? ASC, to my mind, passes the test. It may be that BNH also does - I think that's quite likely from what I've seen. Possibly SEO? Another which is small.cap. is AZM. Others? So I'm better with 50% annual growth with the confidence factor than a number of less stable companies with seemingly better growth ratios.

That's my attempt at a general answer to a good question. Specifically re BNH and ASC? I should return to BNH again before trying to answer substantively. My intuitive answer is actually longer term. Where will BNH be in 5 years time? I have confidence in my answer for ASC which I won't give unless challenged by your emulating response for BNH!

Eric

I really think BNH will be taken over if the price stays so low... I have every confidence that it will be around in a few years time eric...It has only just started... it is now it will start making the real money - desperate insurance brokers struggling to cope with compliance from the ever demanding FSA... got to be a winner!!!

Totally agree that the longer a company has been around the more you would trust it. Broker Network has been in operation since 1994 so I personally have every confidence it will continue. Has plenty of cash and assets and an excellent business model. They are wisely investing their cash raised on floatation and take over small insurance brokers on average 1.13 x their earnings... you tell me a listed company that you could take over at 1.13 x their earnings??!! thats 87% profit!!!

It was tipped at the 1.265 level in shares mag, I wouldn't have thought you could go wrong at its current level. It won't be long before there is institutional demand around for this stock.

legend

Thanks. I will revisit it. Essentially, you agree with the confidence criterion. Its arbitrary really whether share A is better than share B. If only a handful pass the confidence criterion then you can invest in each of them. I have been overweight in ASC and am gradually scaling down. The switch to SEO has worked very well: super to get the timing right; first fruits of the 2005 version of 'Eric the Investor'. Good luck in the comp.

Eric

Cheers Eric.. I thought the tactic for this comp was to buy one share that you think will exceed and preferably different from the others.

You will have your work cut out with all these entrants.. Good luck yourself!!

I will post my research about TND soon and start a new bb.

Thanks, legend. Are you happy going with one share? - you can change until 8pm Sunday. However, may well be winning tactics.

Eric

Absolutely dead on Eric, never been more confident... Good fundamentals. Cash in the bank, low p/e (6falling to 3.5 on forecast for next year), has past
losses so they pay no tax on profits, etc. Not one I had come across before but owns some good brands and forecast to improve performance considerably.

Articles galore on ASOS in the Telegragh today, including a profile on Nick Robertson, all positive stuff!

Good positive write-up in Express, as well. Mind, I only read it for the alphapuzzle! No mention in Hemscott letter so I dropped the line aying they need an update next week on impact of internet and DTV. Eric

Good write up in the independant on sat, focusing on acs and growing internet sales.

Good write up in the Saturday FT as well. All this publicity must be good for the share price!