< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

I don't like RenCap's negatives. 'No value added from an acquisition????' So less cash & little chance in the immediate future of BME adding any value. I don't currently hold, but, regardless of their BUY rating, I still think there is more downside to come.

Crumbs, I hope not.....this is the second biggest holding in my portfolio....I think some rise will come when the first well is completed...perhaps then it shall leave the 100p level behind...but then again, nothing is sure...

Harry you should know by now when brokers say buy they have stock to sell and when they say sell they want to buy stock on the cheap, don't get taken in by them.

Do you think this is a sell then Halifax....I'm open to all views....

rf as far as we are concerned nothing has changed, the deal to acquire Black Marlin will not be concluded until september by which time we expect some positive newsflow from Ebok.

Thanks..good...will stay put...

h, I'm not particularly interested in broker's 'Buy' or 'Sell' recommendations as I think you are probably correct that they have their own agenda, but I have yet to see a totally positive broker report. As AFR are now in the FTSE250, brokers seem to take much more interest (obviously), so on that basis I assume their research is much more thorough. They all seem to think BME is a negative step for 2010 and seem to be recommending other E&P Co's as better value (& potential value).
[Cr Sui: "Valuation: Although Afren trades at a 26% discount to our NAV of 125p,
based on $80 oil, we have a preference for Premier Oil (OP, TP 1,561p) and
Dana Petroleum (OP, TP 1,503p) where we see similar discounts to NAV.]

Harry BME is not at this stage important , EBOK certainly is very important, lets wait and see the next RNS.

Earlier this week, the Nigeria-focused oil and gas exploration and production group Afren agreed to buy Black Marlin Energy of Canada in a deal that will see it expand in east Africa. Yesterday Afren's shares fell 1.45p, or 1.6 per cent, to 90.5p after Credit Suisse said the takeover was "a divergence" from the company's core strategy.

"We are not yet convinced of the logic behind the deal," the broker said, downgrading the stock from "outperform" to "neutral" and revising its target price from 131p to 100p.

"The deal activity that we had been looking forward to was the acquisition of satellite fields around the company's key Ebok development in Nigeria," the broker explained in a note to clients.

"As such, we feel that exposure to high-risk frontier exploration in east Africa is a divergence."

http://www.independent Todays, The Independent

Good AGM ,worth reading the statement..

Can't see any reason for getting in here yet:
"StockMarketWire.com
Afren expects significant production growth with the start-up of the Ebok field in October.

The firm said 2009 and the first half of 2010 had been a period of continued growth and delivery.

Net production averaged 22,100 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2009.

In Nigeria, gross production at the Okoro field averaged 18,800 bopd, exceeding pre start-up expectations with stable production maintained in Ce d'Ivoire.

And the firm says expects significant production growth with the start up of the Ebok field in October at an initial expected rate of 15,000 bopd, increasing to 35,000 bopd by year-end. "

You would think they'd be going up by now .

"Can't see any reason for getting in here yet" ,

i dont know why you would say that HARRY.

Because there is nothing to add to it's value until October (Ebok as per post #1056) & also the BME acquisition is considered to be a negative step by brokers (also adding no value until 2011 at the earliest).

harry this just proves how short sighted brokers are and how little they can be trusted to give sensible opinion to investors, best to DYOR.

As you say h, the BME deal won't be signed off 'til september, so my limited research still stands (together with a comparatively weak oil price). No one has yet come up with a conclusive argument why now is a good time to invest in AFR rather than wait until nearer Sept/Oct. (also, particularly if the sp isn't supported by the 200DMA on the chart. Lower highs & lower lows a possibility.)

harry you have to look forward to AFR producing 60,000 bopd by end of 2010 how many bopd is TLW producing at present with a market cap how many times greater than AFR?

just looked at "newspaper tips" courtisy of the Void, and see the Times quotes Bowleven up on bid talk from Afren but can't find any info from either side. Anyone put me right on this, I assume it's nothing to do with marlin deal..BB

It is just a rumour doing the rounds at the moment BB.

thanks kim,