cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
skinny
- 09 Jan 2013 16:36
- 10462 of 21973
To bolster our 'feel good' factor, have a look at
Davai's recent chart - post 191.
Shortie
- 09 Jan 2013 16:43
- 10463 of 21973
I'm clearly in the hedge boat also Skinny, over the past year plus my stocks have done very nicely so my short adds a hedge element to increased risks of a Sterling sell off. My FTSE short strategy is to build a position using small stakes, so the risk is weighted as the FTSE climbs. Of course there is a point where I'll be forced out the market and one could always argue what happens to those that try and catch a falling knife.
I hold a heavy long position in FTO which is plus 30% up currently.
ISA Equity Stocks Held all in profit;
Beazley 58.1%
Drax 31.4%
Inchcape 14%
Legal & General 164.7%
Segro 5.75% 20/06/2035 (Bond) 53.8% bought at 67.62 yielding 8.5%
I have other equities but the above are my main exposure along with the banking sector RBS, LLOY, HSBA & BNC held in smaller stakes.
hilary
- 09 Jan 2013 16:44
- 10464 of 21973
skinny
- 09 Jan 2013 16:47
- 10465 of 21973
Hils - but hopefully not in a straight line - even the Brownlee bothers need to take a breath at some point.
Off for a quick couple of these with my son-in-law.
hilary
- 09 Jan 2013 16:53
- 10466 of 21973
I'm happy to take the other side of your short trade, Skinners. At least one of us will be right then. :)
Shortie
- 09 Jan 2013 16:55
- 10467 of 21973
Skinny, Davai's recent chart - post 191. Thanks for this, nice to see he's also expecting a pullback although a thread I've never looked at before now. Another one I'll have to make some time to follow.
Davai
- 09 Jan 2013 16:55
- 10468 of 21973
Cheers skinny... i don't want to try to cover all aspects to the last detail, or bring all the technical talk over to here, i don't trade index's and therefore haven't done enough homework on them to give too strong an opinion... )
Current move looks like a 4th, thus poss of higher later, but like i said.... enough!
Shortie
- 09 Jan 2013 17:11
- 10469 of 21973
FX HORIZONS: Platinum-Coin Punditry Poses Threat to Dollar
By Michael J. Casey By now you have probably heard of the frenzied Twitter debate unleashed by the suggestion that the U.S. government deposit a freshly minted $1 trillion coin at the Federal Reserve as a ploy to sidestep its debt-ceiling standoff with Congress. Well, let me add one more voice to it: These arguments are bad for the dollar--but not for the reasons that concern many of the idea's critics. It isn't that President Barack Obama is likely to bring this bout of intellectual jousting into the realm of real policy. And even if he were, we need not indulge in gold bugs' fears that the magical creation of $1 trillion in extra coinage would immediately stoke inflation. Even if the government were to take advantage of the legal loophole that liberal pundits have gleefully uncovered, once it began drawing on the reserves it created at the Fed, the central bank would issue certificates to absorb excess currency and keep the money supply in check. This isn't a "monetize the debt" proposal that threatens hyperinflation. It's a political maneuver, nothing more. But that doesn't mean it isn't dangerous, or that it doesn't pose a threat to the dollar. The platinum-coin idea encapsulates all that is wrong with governance in the U.S. If America's politicians can't overcome the partisan gridlock that is stifling the budget process and making it impossible to deal with all the other critical issues facing the country and the planet, the bedrock of confidence that foreign investors maintain in this country--and in the dollar--will eventually dissipate. Gimmicks such as a $1 trillion coin aren't the solution. Investors must have their faith restored in a more-fundamental way. They have to believe that the overarching political system is capable of functioning, of achieving compromise in pursuit of a common interest. To be fair to the "#mintthecoin" crowd, whose Twitter hashtag's converts now include Princeton economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, they recognize that theirs is an extreme solution. It wouldn't be necessary, they argue, if not for the even-more-crazy posture of the Republican Party. It is indeed crazy--especially when foreign creditors wonder whether the U.S. can be trusted to repay its colossal debts--for House Republicans to hold the government to ransom by denying it the power to raise money to cover spending that Congress has already approved. Yet this is what we face at the end of February, when the U.S. again reaches its debt ceiling, reviving the brutal "fiscal cliff" battle between Democrats and Republicans that ended only less than two weeks ago. It is time, say the coin-minting crowd, for Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to invoke powers granted to him under an Act of Congress and order the minting of platinum coins with denominations up to "the Secretary's discretion." However, as more-sensible voices have emphasized, one crazy idea doesn't offset another crazy idea. If anything, it amplifies the craziness. The instant appearance of a $1 trillion platinum coin is hardly going to fill foreigners with confidence. Nonetheless, the debate--which began ahead of the previous debt-ceiling showdown in 2011 as more of an intellectual exercise than a concrete proposal--is instructive. It reminds us of what really does need to happen to protect America's good standing with its creditors, and the integrity of the dollar. A country's exchange rate can be thought of as the equivalent of a company's share price, a valuation of its future economic-growth potential. Just as any good equity investor will pay close attention to a chief executive's management capacity, as well as on how well the board of directors works with that CEO to facilitate growth and protect shareholder interests, currency investors are compelled to make assessments of how well America's "CEO" works with his "Board." Right now, that White House-Congress relationship is toxic. Yet the market is giving the U.S. the benefit of the doubt. As the world's reserve currency, the dollar has stored up much legitimacy, and this protects it from swift reversals in confidence. But this support is by no means guaranteed forever. If U.S. political leaders want creditors to keep buying the dollar, these absurd games of brinkmanship must end. (Michael Casey is managing editor for the Americas at DJ FX Trader, a foreign-exchange news service from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. His new book on the global financial system, "The Unfair Trade," was published in May.
Toya
- 09 Jan 2013 17:15
- 10470 of 21973
Interesting article Shortie - thanks
skinny
- 10 Jan 2013 06:13
- 10471 of 21973
Timing eh!
China's surprisingly strong trade data fans optimism
China has reported better-than-expected trade data, adding to optimism that growth in the world's second-largest economy may be rebounding.
Exports, a key driver of expansion, rose 14.1% in December from a year earlier. Most analysts had forecast a figure closer to 4%.
Imports also rose, climbing 6% and indicating stronger domestic demand.
Inflation: Changes to the calculation of RPI expected
Changes to the measurement of inflation are set to be announced on Thursday, potentially cutting the income of many private sector pensioners.
The Office for National Statistics has been consulting since October on three possible changes to the way the retail prices index (RPI) is calculated.
Any of the changes would ensure that RPI rose more slowly in the future.
That would also restrain the future income of people holding index-linked bonds and savings certificates.
"The RPI change could be very significant," warned Joanne Livingstone of actuaries Punter Southall.
Toya
- 10 Jan 2013 07:31
- 10473 of 21973
US fear index plummets to a 5½-year low - Vix shows investors turning more positive on stocks. - Another indication that markets are set to continue their climb!
I think I need a re-think... More coffee needed, it's still dark out there!
Davai
- 10 Jan 2013 07:33
- 10474 of 21973
Now that is a beautiful chart. I have a Chinese trader friend and spoke with him a couple of weeks ago. He showed me a chart of the Chinese stock market, which had clearly just started a 5w advance, (i think near the top of wave 1 at the time or around where the HSI was back in July eg), buying Chinese company shares would probably be the best way to go as it would smooth out the pullbacks, (buy on dips), but i couldn't find the same chart with my provider. That said, the above looks ripe for a pullback or consolidation (poss couple months as a complex wave 4) before higher again...
Toya
- 10 Jan 2013 07:35
- 10475 of 21973
It's good to have your technical view on this Davai :)
cynic
- 10 Jan 2013 08:41
- 10476 of 21973
personally i wouldn't touch chinese shares with a bargepole, but yes, and as i have said on a good number of occasions (and ridden the derision), world economies are picking up ...... iron ore prices are now at a 15 month high ......
and from today's FT Briefing
China trade rebound hints at strong growth
Chinese exports and imports rebounded strongly in December, pointing to solid economic growth both in China and abroad.
Exports rose 14.1 per cent from a year earlier, the fastest in seven months and well above November’s 2.9 per cent pace. Imports increased 6 per cent in December from a year earlier after flatlining in November. Both outstripped most forecasts.
Davai
- 10 Jan 2013 08:49
- 10477 of 21973
This would be Chinese co's listed on the China SE as opposed to listed here or across the pond...
skinny
- 10 Jan 2013 08:50
- 10478 of 21973
Its tough at the top!
Rolls-Royce car sales edge up to new record
Rolls-Royce Motor Cars, which is owned by BMW, has reported record car sales for the third year in a row.
Sales edged up from 3,538 cars in 2011 to 3,575 in 2012. But the 1% growth was much lower than the 31% and 150% growth rates seen in the last two years.
cynic
- 10 Jan 2013 08:53
- 10479 of 21973
and THAT model is an absolute monstrosity ..... give me the Bentley GT Supersport every time
Toya
- 10 Jan 2013 08:55
- 10480 of 21973
Quite agree with you Cynic :) - and thought of you as I read the Chinese data, because you have indeed been telling us so for a while now
Toya
- 10 Jan 2013 09:04
- 10481 of 21973
There are some analysts who reckon the Chinese momentum will struggle to keep up this pace in 2013:
Chinese exports soar