rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

and THAT model is an absolute monstrosity ..... give me the Bentley GT Supersport every time

Quite agree with you Cynic :) - and thought of you as I read the Chinese data, because you have indeed been telling us so for a while now

There are some analysts who reckon the Chinese momentum will struggle to keep up this pace in 2013:

Chinese exports soar

GBP Asset Purchase Facility 375B consensus 375B previous 375B

GBP Official Bank Rate 0.05% consensus 0.50% previous 0.50%

BOE Stays On Hold As Growth Worries Linger

By Jason Douglas LONDON--The Bank of England left its monetary levers untouched on Thursday as concerns about persistently high inflation trump signs of a renewed economic downturn. The U.K.'s central bank said its Monetary Policy Committee left the BOE's benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and the limit for its bond-buying stimulus program at 375 billion pounds ($600.8 billion pounds) following its two-day policy meeting. As is usual when policy is left unchanged, the BOE didn't publish a statement explaining its decision. Sterling and U.K. government bonds were broadly unmoved. Minutes of the meeting will be published Jan. 23. The MPC enters 2013 facing a similar mix of stubbornly high inflation and weak growth that dogged its decisions during 2012. Business surveys and economic data published in recent weeks suggest the U.K. economy contracted in the final three months of 2012 and will probably struggle to grow in the first few months of this year, raising the specter of three recessions in relatively quick succession. A recession is typically defined in the U.K. as two consecutive quarters of shrinking gross domestic product, and the nation has experienced two such periods since 2008. Consumer confidence declined in December, the European Commission said Tuesday, while a quarterly survey of finance chiefs at U.K. firms published Monday by business services firm Deloitte LLP found executives plan to keep hoarding cash this year, stymieing hopes for an investment-led recovery. Recent trade data showed Britain's economy is still suffering from the effects of the downturn in the neighboring euro zone, while at home demand is being hurt by a continuing budget squeeze by Prime Minister David Cameron's governing coalition. Economists on average expect the U.K. economy to have shrunk 0.1% in 2012 and estimate it will grow 1.1% in 2013, according to a range of independent economic forecasts compiled by the U.K. treasury. The first official estimate of 2012 gross domestic product is scheduled to be released Jan. 25. BOE officials expect the annual rate of inflation to stay above their 2% target for the rest of the year, which may limit their appetite to shore up growth by printing more money to buy bonds, a policy known as quantitative easing, or QE. Economists are divided on whether more QE will be forthcoming, and some officials appear to be unsure it is as effective a stimulus tool as it once was. "Even if the committee pauses for the next couple of months, we still think that more QE is likely before long. If we are right in expecting the economic stagnation to persist throughout this year, and tensions in the euro zone to re-emerge before long, then growth concerns are once again likely to trump near-term inflation worries," said Vicky Redwood, chief U.K. economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy. The BOE is hoping a joint program with the treasury to boost bank lending will help drive a recovery. The Funding for Lending Scheme, or FLS, aims to clear a logjam in lending that policy makers worry is holding back spending and investment. Officials on the BOE's Financial Policy Committee, which oversees the financial system, are also trying to free up more resources to fund new credit by relaxing some bank rules and urging lenders to sort out bad loans. A quarterly survey of lenders published by the BOE this month suggested these efforts may be bearing fruit. Banks said they plan to significantly increase the amount of loans available to would-be borrowers this quarter, the survey found. Analysts are increasingly focused on what changes incoming BOE Governor Mark Carney will bring to the conduct of British central bank policy when he joins from the Bank of Canada in July, replacing Mervyn King. A recent speech demonstrated Mr. Carney's interest in methods of stimulus as-yet untried in the U.K., such as providing guidance on the likely path of interest rates, a strategy adopted by the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve aimed at encouraging greater spending. "With the risks to the economic outlook still firmly weighted to the downside, the use of further unconventional monetary policy tools is possible," said Melanie Bowler, an economist at Moody's Analytics.

Can someone give me the FTSE intra day high please - I seem to have lost my feed.

According to the IG chart it was 6118

Thanks Toya.

Thursday, January 10, 2013
Chinese exports numbers give US markets a lift




US stocks have opened firmer on the back of encouraging export figures from China and an upbeat press conference from Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank.

Chinese exports in December were 14.1% higher than a year earlier, helping drive a sharp increase in the People’s Republic’s trade surplus to US$31.6bn.

In November, exports had been up a mere 2.9% year-on-year, while the trade surplus was US$19.6bn.

In Europe, Draghi cheered the market when he suggested that “we are now back in a normal situation from a financial viewpoint” though he cautioned that “we’re not at all seeing an economic recovery

For Hils. Japanese government approves $116bn stimulus package

The Japanese government has approved a fresh 10.3 trillion yen ($116bn; £72bn) stimulus package in an attempt to spur a revival in its economy.

The package will include infrastructure spending, as well as incentives for businesses to boost investment.

The government said the stimulus is likely to boost Japan's gross domestic product by two percentage points.


Nokia shares rise on better-than-expected Lumia sales







Nokia shares have risen sharply after the Finnish group said mobile phone sales in the fourth quarter exceeded its own expectations.

Nokia said it sold 86.3 million devices in the last quarter, with revenues totalling 3.9bn euros ($5.2bn; £3.2bn).

It said its mobile phone business had achieved underlying profitability, thanks to better-than-expected sales of its Lumia smartphone.

Nokia shares closed up 11% in Helsinki and 18.7% higher in New York.

Looks like I missed getting filled @6,132 by 0.5 of a point.

Currency wars, Skinners. Too many central banks want to devalue their respective currencies to boost exports and prevent their economies from dipping into recession.

In one way or another, the UK, the US and Japan are all doing it. Switzerland found a very ingenious and effective way of doing it last year which involved a lot of huff and puff, a bit of scandal (Kashya Hildebrand) and a few euro bond purchases. China grew their economy so rapidly throughout the noughties simply by pegging their Yuan to the weak greenback. The ECB would probably like to do it but they're so far behind the curve and don't really know how to do it.

It's more a survival of the least weak, rather than a survival of the fittest.

Stock up with wellies - the kiwi could soon become the beneficial half of the *new* carry trade!

Philipp Hildebrand - ah yes, his 'Clinton' moment.

GBP Manufacturing Production m/m -0.3% consensus 0.5% previous -1.3%

GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.3% consensus 0.8% previous -0.9%

MARKET NEWS: FTSE 100 6101.43 -0.08 -0.00% FTSE 250 12784.73 +53.95 +0.42% FTSE AIM All-Share 735.37 +0.70 +0.10% London Stocks Pare Gains After Data 1002 GMT [Dow Jones] FTSE 100 is flat at 6101.71, paring small gains after UK manufacturing and industrial production data for November come in worse than expected. "[The] figures provide yet further evidence that the economy probably contracted in the fourth quarter," says Capital Economics. Corporate news helps to support the mildly positive tone. International Consolidated Airlines rises 2.8% while Aviva adds 2.7% following respective brokerage upgrades. Miners lose ground after a pick-up in inflation in China, which dampens hopes for further monetary policy easing there. Tullow loses 4.9% after a production update. With European data sparse, focus shifts to the US, with trade balance data at 1330 GMT. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo is scheduled to report its quarterly results. TOP STORIES: UK Industrial Production Weaker than Expected in November The U.K.'s manufacturing output slumped in November and industrial production as a whole was much weaker than expected, official data showed Friday, the latest sign the British economy contracted in the final quarter of the year. COMPANIES NEWS Tullow Sees 2012 Revenue at $2.35B; Targets 1B boe, 40+ Wells in 2013 Tullow Oil PLC (TLW.LN), an oil and gas explorer, said Friday it expects to post revenue for 2012 of about 2.35 billion dollars, up from 2.30 billion in 2011, and said its exploration and appraisal campaigns for 2013 will target one billion barrels of oil equivalent, with over 40 wells planned. Moneysupermarket.com Sees 2012 Adjusted Revenue +15%, EBITDA +26% Comparison website Moneysupermarket.com Group PLC (MONY.LN) said Friday it expects 2012 adjusted revenue to increase around 15% to 204.5 million pound, from GBP178.5 million a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA to be around GBP66.0 million, an increase of 26% from last year's GBP52.6 million. Laird Expects to Meet 2012 Expectations, Pay 10P Total Dividend Wireless components group Laird PLC (LRD.LN) said Friday that it is well placed to meet expectations for 2012 and reaffirmed its intention to recommend a total dividend of 10 pence for 2012. AGA Rangemaster Sees 2012 Adjusted Profit Ahead of 2011, Revenue -2% AGA Rangemaster Group PLC (AGA.LN) a specialist in range cookers and kitchen living, said Friday it expects profit before non-recurring costs, finance costs and tax for 2012 to be ahead of last year in spite of the continuing headwinds of weak consumer demand in the home move and improvements markets which left cooker revenue slightly lower. Theo Fennell Sees FY Materially Below Expectations After Weak Christmas Theo Fennell PLC (TFL.LN), the jeweler, Friday warned that full year results for the year ending March 31 will be materially below management expectations following weak Christmas trading. OTHER NEWS: Honda to Cut 800 Jobs at Swindon Due to Drop in Demand - BBC Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (7267.TO) is planning to cut 800 jobs at its Swindon plant, blaming weak demand across Europe, the BBC reports Friday. BROKER COMMENTS: Macquarie Research Cuts ENRC Target 1007 GMT [Dow Jones] Macquarie Research cuts Eurasian Natural Resources (ENRC.LN) target to 420p from 475p after incorporating the Camrose transaction and latest commodity prices, which results in a 12% reduction in 2013 Ebitda forecast to $2.28 billion. "We expect concerns over the debt covenant, free float and the lack of clarity on the company's copper strategy to pose headwinds for the stock in the near-term but believe a resolution of these issues by mid-year as well as renewed momentum in the ferrochrome price could offer catalysts to propel the stock towards our target price by year-end. Macquarie has an outperform on the stock. ENRC is down 1.1% at 318p. Westhouse Ups Moneysupermarket.com Target 0938 GMT [Dow Jones] Westhouse Securities raises Moneysupermarket.com (MONY.LN) target to 180p from 168p following its pre-close update. Says positive trends highlighted at November's IMS have continued. Adds it is bullish on the group's medium-term prospects reflecting expectations of very attractive earnings and dividend growth. Says Moneysupermarket.com continues to lead the fast-growing UK price comparison market. Says press comments suggesting that the EU may impose regulatory sanctions to afford formal protection to online businesses against anti-competitive behaviour could also be supportive. Maintains at add. Shares +8.7% at 172p. Exane BNP Paribas Starts Coverage Of E&P Stocks 0923 GMT [Dow Jones] Exane BNP Paribas initiates coverage on E&P stocks, saying it sees material hidden value in the sector. Starts Afren (AFR.LN), Africa Oil (AOI.V), Maurel et Prom (MAU.FR), Rockhopper Exploration (RKH.LN) and Tullow Oil (TLW.LN) at outperform. Initiates Cairn Energy (CNE.LN), Lundin Petroleum (LUPE.SK), Ophir Energy (OPHR.LN) and Soco International (SIA.LN) at neutral. Finally, Exane starts Premier Oil (PMO.LN) at underperform. "We like the transformational exploration potential of Tullow, African Oil, and Afren, as well as Rockhopper's and Maurel's undervalued developments," says Exane. Adds that at current valuations, M&A in the sector could accelerate medium term, particularly for quality assets offering production and exploration upside. UBS Downgrades EasyJet To Neutral From Buy 0756 GMT [Dow Jones] UBS downgrades EasyJet (EZJ.LN) to neutral from buy noting insufficient share price upside, but raises price target to 890p from 780p. Says the share price rose by over 90% during 2012. Attributes this gain to individual and industry capacity discipline, strong yield performance, taking market share from flag carriers and special and ordinary dividend payments, among other things. UBS expects further upside in 2013 and raises FY'13 and FY'14 EPS estimates to 72.36p from 68.61p and 79.37p from 73.92p, respectively. EasyJet shares closed Thursday at 834p.

CAD Trade Balance -2.0B consensus -0.3B previous -0.2B

USD Trade Balance -48.7B consensus -41.1B previous -42.2B

USD Import Prices m/m -0.1% consensus 0.1% previous -0.9%

NMX3720 continues relentlessly.

One for Skinny - the cover pic that everyone's talking about! - I'm not sure if someone has already posted this... am I having a senior moment??

And here's a link to an article about that, from MarketWatch.com:

Washington Clowns set up 42% stock-market drop

Viewpoint: Don't fret - go bullish and big for 2013




By Ken Fisher | Fri, 11/01/2013 - 17:09






Despite constant fears, global, US and British shares ended 2012 up nicely - amazingly all up 11%. Expect still bigger returns in 2013 - the biggest shares up most.

Why be bullish when everyone is so dour? Because they're dour. Sir John Templeton, legendary US investor, said, "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." I see little optimism and zero euphoria. Then, too, most negatives you hear are already well known and overly discussed, digested and already priced into shares. The fears are just cud and investors keep chewing it - over and over.

If it's widely known, it's either wrong or will little impact shares. That is basic to how markets work and people just never learn. Still fretting about the eurozone? We've fretted it over three years while world markets have risen. Or another Obama term - fully four years of fretting already done! The debt crisis? Fretted forever! We've fretted about a new global recession since the last one. The eurozone is weak, but the overall world has grown for over three years. Cud can't cause bear markets - it's bullish! If fears don't materialise, that better-than-expected reality helps boost shares - the "wall of worry" shares love to climb.

While investors chew cud, they miss ample positives - such as a global economy much healthier than many presume. The US accelerated strongly mid-2012. The UK exited its really rather shallow recession in Q3. China never hard-landed and keeps growing. Even the eurozone has pockets of strength. Add to that low global inflation, and we're close to a not-too-fast, not-too-slow, just-right Goldilocks global economy - with some leaders and some laggards while investors focus on the laggards (cud) instead of the average - which is what matters most.

Earnings and revenues remain above past peak levels and should grow - though more slowly, as is normal later in expansions. Increased gridlock in the US and elsewhere should mean little new meaningful legislation - a positive.

Plus, US, UK and global shares tend to be strongly positive the first year of Democrats' terms - whether newly or re-elected like Obama. The end of the US fiscal cliff debate provides clarity - which shares like. And US, developed, emerging and global GDP are all at all-time highs. It's a beautiful world few see. Very bullish.

One negative: US monetary policy - Bernanke keeps flattening the yield curve and sapping bank appetite for lending. Still, it's keeping inflation low for the near term. And, that the US economy has grown despite bad policy is a testament to the strength of both the US and global economy.

Be bullish and buy the biggest shares. When sceptics turn optimistic, they buy the biggest, most obvious and well-known shares first - mega caps dominate as bull markets age. Buy before they do - anything over £47.5 billion in market capitalisation - and enjoy the ride. Start with shares like these:

Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) is surely the most diverse major healthcare firm - spanning pharmaceuticals, medical devices and an unrivalled won't-quit list of popular consumer brands. It sells at 15 times my estimate of 2013 earnings with a 3.5% dividend yield.

If you believe in Chinese growth, believe in China Mobile (CHL), the world's largest mobile carrier, with 700 million-plus customers. It may be the most profitable entity the People's Republic of China controls. With growth comes increased telecom usage - making China Mobile attractive at 14 times my estimated 2013 earnings, with a 3.8% dividend yield.

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.