Short PLM

FTC might actually go this time. Bloody hope so coz I'm very, very, very short and bored waiting.

fulhamken - as per the ANL counter-bid, got to weigh up what evidence we have. The UK banks want to go down the domestic merger route because of substantial cost savings and we know they've been lobbying the government about this. Citigroup made an informal approach to Abbey a couple of months ago and I think we know what LLOY and RBS publicly stated positions are on this. There are lots of other 'ifs' and 'buts', but on the balance of probabilities I remain long.

edit: and somewhere lost in this, I believe ANL's results this morning came in above expectations...

another edit: but I'd have been happier if I could have bought it lower :-) Well, will look at buying more below 540 if we get there and if I'm around. Then it turns from a punt into a more serious position! Still, it would help if the Spanish Stock Exchange would resume trading in BSCH. What kind of market are they running over there?

more edit: ...and long again at 540. Now it gets interesting.

Interesting that a spike of 15 up and straight down again just appeared on cmc's /$ forex chart but it never registered on IG's price! I know that their various prices reflect the betting on their site alone, but it's a wee bit suspicious - it would have shaken out some shorters with tight stops. Luckily I had not got a position.

Anybody calculated the ANL points impact on the FTSE? Just wondered where it would be with a flat ANL....

Santander BSCH is back on and trading at 7.73/74 - a drop from 8 on Friday. Now the arbitrage game begins.

anl perky again, counterbid?

afternoon folks...just back from Barca.....top weekend however went to cafe Bagdad which is a rather dodgy club. Tried to humiliate the stag by getting him up on stage but guess who had swapped seats with him and was dragged up on stage by a close relative of Nadia from Big Brother...i feel used :-)

LOL dragged up by RAMBOY whatever next treble!

Rough ANL arbitrage as I'm busy but... 603-31 special dividend gives 572/800 pre-close = 603 bid therefore shareprice element is at .715 - BSCH 774 gives: (BSCH*0.715)+31=584.41

tkx kyoto

TP....i was man handled...not a pleasant experience however the rest of the boys seemed to think it was hiliarious!

Fulhamken - doesn't take into account exchange rates, possible dodgy sums on my part, not reading the bid document properly for longer than 1 minute, possibility that some regulator somewhere will block or due diligence will turn up something.

at least your maintaining a life outside trading treb, beats posting on the lonely hearts thread at midnight, heres one for all you truckers out there:)

closed short anl - 1
closed long anl + 10.5
closed long anl + 12.0

currently long anl 561

26p bounce from Low all over the show

ruth, you have hotmail.

anl +12. takeover price works at 5.45
present price of santa ia 7.80 at .66 exchange rate it values anl at 5.14
+ 31p div = 5.45

price spike suggests that a counter bid is in the offing

What I don't understand about the ANL bid is why Reuters and Bloomberg are running stories saying that the bid is valued at 550-560 per - when the ANL release states 603. Any thoughts? Am I missing something here?

The terms of the Acquisition are based on the equity market
capitalisations of the two companies over the last three months and (taking into
account the special dividend) represent a premium for Abbey Shareholders of
approximately 28.6 per cent.2, valuing each Abbey Share at 603 pence (609 pence
taking into account 6 pence for dividend differential) and the entire issued
ordinary share capital of Abbey at approximately 8.9bn (13.4bn)(1),(2).
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200407261002422015B.html

Abbey investors will receive one Santander share and 31 pence in cash for each Abbey share, Santander Chairman Emilio Botin told analysts in London. That values the offer at 560 pence a share based on the Spanish bank's closing price Friday.http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a9eY1aEP6iAk&refer=home

The terms value Abbey at 559 pence a share including the dividend payout, based on Santander's share price when it was suspended on Friday after the companies said they were in talks.
http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=554053&section=news