The succesful LOM AGM for the 2004 financial results was held on Friday 30th December. [LMT will likely hold their AGM for 2005 results in late Q2 '06] The AGM was a chance to meet the new team running LMT. The new CEO and FD are sharp and focussed, which is good news. The CEO whilst at Boston built up his segment from $50M sales p/a to $200M p/a. One senses he sees the opportunity to do likewise with the market cap of LMT.

The portfolio of opportunity remains the same but by way of a recap:-

Grafts

AAA grafts (Aortic)
Boston has extended their agreement to allow further time to evaluate the Aorfix graft. With this area being very litigious [threat of board members of US company Guidant going to jail.] and the difficulties thrown up by TriVascular a small AAA graft company which they recently purchased their desire to cover all bases is understandable. Boston will have to set up and train a sales force to sell the graft so it is a major decision for them. If they can make up their mind by summer LMT are in contact with other major suppliers who wish to distribute the AAA graft outside the US.

The US FDA has conditionally approved the AAA graft IDE to allow a US trial called PYTHAGORUS to begin very soon. Initially a few tens of 1st Generation grafts will be implanted at which stage the FDA will review and then if everything is okay allow the 2nd Gen graft to be used and the scope of the trial to be widened to grafts with angulated necks greater than 60 degrees. There will be 275 grafts used in cases with angulation less than 60 degrees and 110 grafts for cases greater than 60 degrees angulation. The upside is that the clinical centres who have signed up for the trial will pay for the grafts which retail at $10-$12k each. With discounts LMT might achieve $9-$10K. All grafts are expected to be implanted in 2006 therefore LMT can look forward to an income of around $3.5M this year from the US. If the clinical centres require additional grafts then LMT can continue to sell them until FDA approval comes through so similar income may be available in 2007 and 2008.There are no grafts in the EU capable of dealing with angulated and although the Aorfix is not yet approved it is already finding use in compassionate cases.

The rights for the US market have still to be licensed, but clearly Boston is the frontrunner. To obtain the best price LMT will no doubt show they have other interested parties who are keen to step in if they should falter.

TAA Grafts (Thoracic)
Now that money is available clinical trials are expected to start in Europe and the US. The TAA market could be worth $500-$1000M in the next years 3. The size of the market depends on the capability of the graft which will be demonstrated by clinical trial results. A sales partner has still to be appointed.

Staplers
LMT has at least 3 versions of their stapler
Open stapler for use in surgery
Endovascular stapler for use in fixing AAA grafts that have moved or heart tissue valves
GI stapler - subject of a deal with Wilson Cook some years back

The value focus is currently on the Endovascular stapler with FDA 510(k) and CE mark approvals awaited. Distribution deals are likely to be interesting and lucrative.

Polymers
Polybiomed are working
with a US major on multidrug delivery using their polymer
with an EU stent company on multidrug delivery using their polymer
with a major biotech on delivery of an innovative restenosis drug
on a gel wound dressing
on a coated urinary catheter


Unquoted investments
Investments continue to be made into Endoart to protect their shareholding, but its value has been written down to nil in the most recent accounts I have seen. The two events do not seem consistent. Perhaps it will be revalued in the accounts for the year just ended.

Vascular Concepts is making money in the Indian drug eluting coronary stent market. It is still seeking investment to break into the EU and US markets.

Stock overhang?
It is interesting to note that at IPO there were no stock sales apart from that held by the new non-executive director. As the company strategy has evolved over the years it has divested businesses such as AME and DMC and dropped a number of directors and executives along the way. All of these will have shareholdings and may now be sitting watching and wondering if they should sell now they have the opportunity. At the AGM it was reported that presentations had been made to 42 institutions from across Europe of which 24 had subscribed for shares with one taking 10% of those on offer. Raising 26M is a big achievement - but more money was on offer.

With Code holding the price any stock sold may just be ending up in the hands of institutions that didn't get in at the offer. We also know the way that many IPO's work - not all the good news comes out at IPO which allows a flow of news to follow which puts some air into the price and a comfort zone to those that invested.

There is a new executive team under the Chairman, the brokers Nomura/Code Securities are first rate, and the media advisors Financial Dynamics are first division as are the new legal team at Berwins. Of course as jpon points out the website still lacks, but that was said to be under very active development.

In essence it is a new start building on the foundations already laid so it does not make much sense to sell just when the dawn is breaking. It makes more sense to be buying.

CEO (500shares) and Chairman (1000) purchased 4th August

third quarter results out yesterday, no surprises and as always hi hopes for the future