ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

Thanks, legend. Are you happy going with one share? - you can change until 8pm Sunday. However, may well be winning tactics.

Eric

Absolutely dead on Eric, never been more confident... Good fundamentals. Cash in the bank, low p/e (6falling to 3.5 on forecast for next year), has past
losses so they pay no tax on profits, etc. Not one I had come across before but owns some good brands and forecast to improve performance considerably.

Articles galore on ASOS in the Telegragh today, including a profile on Nick Robertson, all positive stuff!

Good positive write-up in Express, as well. Mind, I only read it for the alphapuzzle! No mention in Hemscott letter so I dropped the line aying they need an update next week on impact of internet and DTV. Eric

Good write up in the independant on sat, focusing on acs and growing internet sales.

Good write up in the Saturday FT as well. All this publicity must be good for the share price!

My prediction is that, whilst ASC may not win its own second challenge, it will be well up in the top quartile. I'm interested in the cap. which is in the region of 50M. I wonder if there are not a number of institutions which only become interested at that level. 2005 , I suspect, will also be the year in which internet and DTV trading, becomes recognised in the same breath as High Street. A point for new site visitors is that there is plenty of action to come. Another prediction: 100K cap. by the year end! I will be doing some switching out at appropriate prices (given I have spotten an n-bagger!) but will retain as overweight.

Eric

Reply from Hemscott, directing my attention to piece in their daily news at www.hemscott.com clicking on news. Additional insights:

"Some of the clothing retailers on the high street have had a dismal Christmas this year and, looking at ASOS's results today, it seems a lot of shoppers have stayed at home and shopped on the internet instead."
"...one report said recently that sales of clothing on-line in the UK have risen five-fold in the past three years. ASOS appears to be one of the major beneficiaries."
"Further out the company plans to move to a new warehouse in June which it says will lead to further operational efficiencies."
"The balance sheet looks strong with a cash position of 1.7m, up from 1.3m in November, and no long-term debt."
"The concensus among brokers is for profits of 1.5m this year, rising to 2.9m next year. There's no dividend and the forward PER of 27 looks high, but with earnings forecast to treble over the next two years the rating looks quite reasonable. Hold"

Prospective PE for 2004/5 is 36; 27 has been forecast for 2005/6 but this would correspond to profits of only 2m; 2.9m would be more like 20. In two years time, given a PE of 12 at current price and another forecast of trebling earnings, actual PE more likely to be 30, implying an sp of 2 in two years time. ACCUMULATE, not just HOLD, please. Note that every bit of news about ASOS is GOOD NEWS.

Eric

I follow with interest all the opinions of many more experienced than myself, and I am learning a great deal. But, can someone explain why this star performer is now "falling out of bed". Should I be worried by another fall in the sp to 72?

toad44: It is difficult to answer your question without some knowledge of your own investment objectives. From a charting perspective if the SP breaks 70p on an EOD basis, that would be a clear Sell signal to me and you would look to buy back once it bounces from a support level (70p?). At the moment all my charting indicators...the ones I use, suggest it is a Sell. However if you bought the share at a much lower price than you find it today then you may want to hold. From a fundamental perspective, ASOS has a high PE ratio going forward, so the market expects it to continue to deliver stunning results, but against that background there is a worry that retail spending may fall back a tad and that might have an impact on future results and hence the SP. There is also the planned move to a new wharehouse, now when it is up and running that will be a SP positive, but until that time there is a lot that can go wrong, and many retail analysts have heard all about moves to new wharehouses to increase efficiency etc, only to read company statements about problems with the move impacting this years results...

I anticipate that Shares Magazine will feature ASOS in tomorrows copy so that may boost the SP...we will see.

I hope that is helpful to you...it is only my view and you ahould of course reach your own judgement about the share. Indeed I anticipate a flood of responses putting forward alternate views!

JGT

JGT,
Thanks for your opinion. My holding is 25000, mostly bought in the 24 / 49 price range, and waiting for the magic 100p forecast by the broker. Shall watch out, eagerly as always, for opinion in Shares Mag.
Will also look forward for other comments.

johngtudor,
Happy new year, reading your post I am intrigued to know the indicators you use and the programmes, I am using metastock 9.0, supercharts 4 and fairshares portfolio. and I come up with roughly the same. unfortunately I dont have the depth of vision you have. SD

toad

I am not going to quarrel with the opinions of the chartists who I respect and I see what they mean. Trading has been within a triangle which interetingly replicates that of three months earlier; the support level is now being tested. I understand the theory to say that breaking that support is itself a sell signal. John also discussed the fundamental issues and I would like to add a couple of more bullish points. First, as referred to in my Hemscott post, more publicity is being given to the switch from High Street to internet buying, so there is not doubt about the growth in the market that ASOS is acting in. Second, there was little information about forward plans in the trading statement. We know already that they are going live with Miss Sixty at better prices than the Miss Sixty shops; their own label goods are scheduled for March; this thread teased out of them their interest in DTV selling; increased volume will lead to increased net margins because of constrained overheads; they appear to have a safe pair of hands and should take the new warehouse in their stride. I would conclude that, if the support level at 70p holds, then the next major move will be up, into new levels. A break South would then give a good buying opportunity.

Eric

Look guys, I know someone that might offload all 200k of their asc shares, that bought at 8p same as me - done well havent they??!!!can't be good for the sp can it?? Take it or leave it.

Don't say i didn't warn you.

legend

I don't think I would be too alarmed at that! Typical daily volume is 1 million shares, so 200K is just a blip. What's he going to do with the money. If re-investing, I wouldn't sell them all but nor would I hold them all. What would I do? Depends on CGT! Has he held them for two years, in which case he can be more free and easy. If not, I would just sell up to the allowance, the same next year and hold for the two year period. Present price is just above a clear resistance level. OK, I want to move into other shares. Well, why not borrow the funds which would cost a lot less than CGT. Better, trade in CFDs without share ownership and therefore tax. I do agree, however, that your friend is quite typical of a number of shareholders and that is probably the primary explanation of the sp easing back. I noticed the phenomenon with a number of shares which had a good run in 2003 that they eased back in the new year, probably primarily explained by investors trying to repeat their success with other shares; I did that to a certain extent myself. So, ASC could ease back further and we need some positive news before long; I'm sure there is plenty in the pipeline.

Eric

Looks like the 70p support has been broken.

And what do you know buyers are back in.

There are sellers around clearly. Yes outstanding company, fundamentally overvalued. Wins have a list of them apparently.

in come a few more buyers. A close of 70p or above may indicate a more productive day tomorrow- positively, it would seem the stop-loss fruit may have been shaken from the tree.