The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

I thought that there were some really good Pros and Cons covered in Saturdays FT. Still available at your local Library....well the bigger ones perhaps.

Which came out on top? Pro Bull or Bear?

People will have to take the time to look and make their own minds up as it's your own money that's being put on the line.

One article (John Plender If I remember rightly) made the point that I've been banging on about this week, that until the full extent of the debt liability is known the Market is just too risky to call at the moment. Short term Trading excepted.

As I say have a look for yourselves.

Having read around this weekend, I have come to the conclusion nobody knows yet how the market is going to respond tomorrow.
But there was an interesting article in Sunday Times by Irwin Stelzer "Bernanke to the rescue with surgical strike". In it he atttemts to put some figures to the subprime debt, but not unfortunately knock on effects.

Also an interesting article Page 2 of ST "Home Loan Frauds hits UK" by Kathryn Cooper, which I have been suspecting for some time.

Cross your fingers or your hearts for tomorrow!

Fred
Apparently relating to some fraudulent loans on new homes being thrown up at Thamesmead. Can't remember the lender but think it might have been Persimmon as the developer - and 40m seems to stick in my mind. All from memory so don't take it as gospel.

EDIT - Sunday Times "Four mortgage firms could see an estimated 40m wiped out after lending to bogus borrowers on off-plan apartments in Thamesmead, south London, built by Persimmon"

Morning, oh dubious ones. ;-))

batten down the hatches again, there's another hurricane on it's way !

I agree...more turmoil coming...FED's move last week is just a temporary measure.


UK July gross mortgage lending hits new July record-high of 34.4 bln stg - CML
AFX


LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Gross mortgage lending in the UK reached a new record level for the month of July despite the Bank of England's series of interest rate rises, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said today.

In its monthly survey the CML said gross mortgage lending rose to 34.4 bln stg, up 13 pct year-on-year and the highest ever level recorded for July. However the figure was slightly lower than the total of 34.8 bln recorded in June.

The CML said the strong level of mortgage lending is being driven by a large number of people re-mortgaging to try and get a better deal in case interest rates rise any further. The BoE has raised rates five times since August last year to their current level of 5.75 pct.

The figures contrast with statistics also out this morning from the Building Societies Association which showed a significant drop in UK mortgage approvals. However the CML said it does expect the effect of this round of monetary tightening to be felt later in the year.

'As we move into the autumn the cumulative effects of these rate rises will become more pronounced, and we expect this to feed through to lower levels of mortgage lending as the year progresses,' it said in a statement.

But it added that it still expects total lending for 2007 to beat 2006's record level of 360 bln stg.

rachel.armstrong@thomson.com

good start to the day ... anyone have US futures for 2day?

indications are currently +50 at 13112 ...... i opened a modest long late Friday when it became reasonably clear that Dow would stay above 13000, but have an equally modest target of 13250, assuming i don't get out sooner

The latest reminder of the trouble sparking the credit crunch now roiling the markets came from Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (TMA:Thornburg Mortgage Asset Corp
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TMA13.81, -1.23, -8.2%) , which said it sold a "substantial" part of its triple-A-rated mortgage securities portfolio.
Thornburg, a residential-mortgage lender focused on jumbo adjustable-rate loans, will report a third-quarter capital loss of about $930 million as a result of the mortgage-securities sales, the company said in a statement. Thornburg's stock fell 12%.

"triple-A-rated" LOL

can,t get backing for jumbo mortgages unless they have an interest rate of 10%

FIRST uk ONE I HAVE SEEN

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.K. hedge-fund manager Solent Capital said Monday it was going to wind down one of its funds because of a downturn in value in the asset-backed securities it contains, the latest fallout from the global credit crisis.

The fund, called the Mainsail II, was invested in commercial mortgage-backed, residential mortgage-backed securities, and collateralized debt obligations, according to a statement released by the company.
The fund may have a forced sale of investments or a closing out of hedging instruments at a loss that may "materially" impact principal and interest repayments, Soleil said.
Many of these securities have struggled in the aftermath of poorer U.S. borrowers failing to repay mortgages, as well as downgrades by credit-rating agencies that meant that some investors were no longer permitted to invest.
"Current market volatility and lack of market liquidity with respect to sub-prime lending markets have caused adverse conditions with respect to the liquidity and market risk exposures on the company's underlying portfolio of investments," Solent said.
'Current market volatility and lack of market liquidity with respect to sub-prime lending markets have caused adverse conditions with respect to the liquidity and market risk exposures on the company's underlying portfolio of investments.'
Solent Capital

interesting tug-of-war going on on Wall Street to see if 13000 can be held ..... too close to call at the moment, the index flopping either side ..... if that psychological level fails, then the REAL test is 12800

at the moment, the bulls seem to have outrun the bears, at least for this evening .... however, and i post this as much for myself as you guys, to believe that this scare has run its course would be foolhardy in the extreme ..... great diligence and fleetness of foot will be required if the smell of burnt flesh is to be avoided

If you look back at previous known bear markets and the bull peaks preceeding them, you should notice the peaks and troughs can often be three or months apart. This is often the reason for people losing money. The recovery can be slow, and as things become normal, investors with cash are impatient to reinvest. Hopefully the above illustrates. This is the key reason why when I decide to quit the market I stay clear for at least 2 years. Economies and the changes within them are slow to play out.

In my opinion.....

Strawbs.

You have admirable self-control strawbs. I presume you have a rich blend of short positions.

though what much of what you say is right, i am surprised that you ever decide to invest in shares at all! ..... no one can ever know quite when either a bull or bear market has begun or even ended ....... however, even when either is in full swing, money can be made, always provided you remember to be very diligent and restrain the greed - difficult in both aspects!

Well I don't have short positions because I don't use CFD's or spreadbets. I think both need careful monitoring because of leverage and margin, and I don't have the time during the day to do so.

My methods won't time the bottom or the top of the market, but they have served me well enough to make and leave with a profit. The simplest of chart patterns combined with economic activity and research will tell you when a bull market may have started. The same can also be said for detecting a bear market, although you have to look for more confirmation whilst waiting on the sidelines.

Strawbs.