Why are we again at 10.5p bid?

It doesn't add up...

Good Results + Strong buying pre results + Christmas online buying soon = Price drop

Then again some companies that have debt for equity hanging in the balance, poor results and bankruptcy around the corner and they go up!

Why sell now at a loss?

Wont that be a kick in the teeth when we see 13.5p 14p again!

Best of luck all.

Down we go again!

I plan to buy back in between 15.5p & 16p

Rob,

in full agreement with you - there is a lot of negative short term sentiment with this one (and a lot of small caps). Fundamentals are still in place, looking forward to a positive trading update and hopefully some new contracts at the AGM at the end of the month.

Down we go again.

Looks Like we may reach my target price quicker than expected.

I'd better free up some cash.

It may even go lower than 15p at this rate.

Set your target and stick to it or you'll only kick yourself. Going up now?

Some Chunky Buys coming in - just a hunch but more Director buying maybe.

This may be part of the reason - Daniel Stewart has reiterated its buy recommendation with a 31p target price

Retail Decisions (RTD.L), is a fully integrated risk management solutions provider, focussed on the payment transaction processing and payment card fraud-prevention markets. Following discussions with management, we see no reason for the recent share price weakness. The company currently trades on a forward annualised P/e of 12.1x,a discount of 38% compared to a UK small cap software sector, which trades on 19.5x. Given the companies strong growth profile, and high-quality of earnings, we feel this is unjustified. We consider the fundamentals to be sound A dominant player in a niche market, RTD.L is a profitable, cash generative operation, with a blue-chip customer base including Walmart, MM02, The Royal Bank of Scotland and AT&T. The UK Chip & PIN initiative, combined with increasing numbers of e-commerce transactions are expected to further accelerate rates of fraud in the card not present environment, a non-cyclical growth market. Our 12.8% forecast growth in earnings to FY 2005e is underpinned by organic market growth, whilst the downside risks are mitigated by strong recurrent revenues. Despite posting FY 2003 figures ahead of market expectations, the share price has fallen from a twelve month high of 27p. We consider this fall to be unjustified, and with a compelling growth story, retain our Strong Buy recommendation, with a price target of 31p, representing 85% upside to the current price. For further information on RTD.L, please refer to our initiation of coverage note of March 2004, accessible on www.danielstewart.co.uk

Thanks Fundamentalist, checking today the buyers are strongly back in and catching up with the sells. The recommendation will only help further it`s progress......thanks for the positive information.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1191758,00.html

check this out which will help RTD also.

The recent collapse in share price has been ridiculous. I'm still happy to hold though, no way am i selling at such a cheap price. Nothing less than 30p for me

Oh well,

Looks like I'm too late.

I didn't manage to free up some cash quick enough.

some cheeky little sales at the end, but still the price held and even went up a little, took a bit of a gmable and topped up at 16.3 yesterday, glad to see it paid off and didn't drop any further. Let us all hope that this is the start of something positive

picked up some more this morning just under 17, don't think it's much of a gamble, these are so cheap.

have been following a number of tech cos lately and they've all been falling similar percentages to rtd, it's a market lead fall rather than any bad news for the co. but then one or two are starting to turn and for e.g. NSB Retail - up 10% today, so rtd should do the same i think. RTD now getting some tips again at this price so there'll be plenty watching with interest.

I see the new broker is saying they are on about 12 x forecast earnings which is about 1.4p. Considering they have just posted a basic eps of 0.50 thats nearly a 300% rise.

Can anyone confirm this please??? If correct the sector average of 19 X eps is not excessive for this stock especially with high growth

31-12-2004 eps1.13p p/e15.04 peg ratio 0.98 eps growth 15.31%

And courtesy crazi

T/Over DC 3.5M RTD 30.0M
Profit DC .7m RTD 5.9m
Adj EPS DC 1.67p RTD 1.4p
Mkt Cap DC 34m RTD 48m
Sh price DC 78.5p RTD 17.25p
P/e DC 47 RTD 12.3


RTD FACTS AND FUNDAMENTALS
* 41% average Gain to turnover
* 20 average profit margin to turnover (twice as good as NSB for example)
* 12.86m gain turnaround
* 5.9m profit
* Turning a -3.6p eps into +0.5p eps
* Cash position Strong
* Initial (admittently Conservative) house broker projection FY04 of 1.06p eps
* Posting a very impressive Maiden profit after only 3 years
* Global leader and Globally positioned - very impressive blue chip client base
* Excellent outlook from the conservative announcement Management Team
* Control and Manage the UK fraud database for all other companies
* Signing many new contracts at end 03 (doubt if they are factored into results.)
* Have signed some new contracts already in Jan 04. Not factored into results.
* Almost Debt free
* "ALL" divisions globally now Cash Positive
* Reduced interest payments expected - increasing FY04 bottom line
* Very tidy in house overheads as can be seen by the profit and turnover margins and 03 turnaround
* Management not interested in any buy out offers anywhere in this price region
* Consultancy Management division expanding into many countries unreachable by internet.
* Market Cap 50 million increasing exposure from 03
* CnP business strategy working well with 186% increase in transactions
* CP business phasing out strategy working well with Europe turning it's first cash positive period even during the phase out.
* 04 starting strong and in line with expectations (management announcment)


MARKET AND SECTOR CONDITIONS
* Internet CnP market expected to continue the boom over 04 and 05
* Market and tech stocks stabilising off a recent consolidation
* Internet retail very positive sentiment from the city perspective "finally"
* Expected boost in Tech investment in 04, entering peak 3 year cycle, backed up by a climbing FTSE since 03, Blue Chip cash piles, Pension holes being filled, and where the city openly admit RTD was dragged down with TECH in 2000 unfairly from a 3.84 share price and fundamentals nowhere near as impressive as they just posted...ie dropped with tech - will climb with tech.


CURRENT POSITIVE POINTS - EXPECTATIONS(short term)
* Second recent Director buy (Friday past). First before closed period. Major confidence boost from the one person that knows all about RTD. The "Financial Director" buying should change recent shorting sentiment and momentum
* New "Tax year" (Old tax year now gone and with it most stocks sell offs)
* New "Financial Year" will release new budgets for investment and new business plan strategies. Many will want in or increase presence in the Internet retail boom
* 5 weeks of share price being managed and hammered (now a positive with current share price)
* 4 weeks now past in post results period. The usual dust settling period. Should slowly start moving back into investor territory. Volatility decreasing.
* Shorters still unable to produce any fault with fundamentals
* CP chip n pin introduction will help force fraud further onto the net. Should increase security awareness further on the net = new contracts
* AGM at end April. Should be positive. Probable contract announcements to help boost incentive scheme



CURRENT NEGETIVE POINTS (short/med term)
* Still the PR department not notifying of any news. Way to quiet even when new contracts being signed. Especially in overseas branches
* Cash strong but not yet released a divi (however I do expect one by FY04)
* Recently Trader driven though decreasing (hopefully ending)
* Resistance at 22p

**********************
POST RESULT BROKER RECOMENDATIONS, REGIONS, POTENTIAL VALUE
(Med term - 3 covering RTD)
* Oriel Securities = HOLD at 26p
(44.5% Value from 18p)
* Dryden Wealth Management = STRONG BUY at 25p (to where - 29p?)
(61% Value from 18p)
* Daniel Stewart (House B)= STRONG BUY and increases target from 27p to 31p.
(72% Value from 18p)
* All above recommendations have been re-iterated since announced
**********************

zscrooge great post, thanks

I decided to top up on Friday, I think the downtrend is now halted and we should see some movement in the right direction in the coming weeks.

All the best

OG

Zscrooge, many thanks for your post. Where do you get the summary of broker recommendations from?

hemscott - try for free for a bit

While I'm on - take it you all know of the buy note

Retail Decisions (RTD.L), is a fully integrated risk management solutions provider, focussed on the payment transaction processing and payment card fraud-prevention markets. Following discussions with management, we see no reason for the recent share price weakness. The company currently trades on a forward annualised P/e of 12.1x,a discount of 38% compared to a UK small cap software sector, which trades on 19.5x. Given the companies strong growth profile, and high-quality of earnings, we feel this is unjustified. We consider the fundamentals to be sound A dominant player in a niche market, RTD.L is a profitable, cash generative operation, with a blue-chip customer base including Walmart, MM02, The Royal Bank of Scotland and AT&T. The UK Chip & PIN initiative, combined with increasing numbers of e-commerce transactions are expected to further accelerate rates of fraud in the card not present environment, a non-cyclical growth market. Our 12.8% forecast growth in earnings to FY 2005e is underpinned by organic market growth, whilst the downside risks are mitigated by strong recurrent revenues. Despite posting FY 2003 figures ahead of market expectations, the share price has fallen from a twelve month high of 27p. We consider this fall to be unjustified, and with a compelling growth story, retain our Strong Buy recommendation, with a price target of 31p, representing 85% upside to the current price. For further information on RTD.L, please refer to our initiation of coverage note of March 2004, accessible on www.danielstewart.co.uk

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/040414/336/eqzt6.html

Zomby

It is worth looking in detail at the accounts as to how the EPS is made up. In this years results there was an adjusted EPS of 1.4p and a basic EPS of 0.5p. The differential between the two is mainly due to three factors: interest, ammortisation and exceptionals. My expectations is that for this year two of the three will be negligible - they will continue to ammortise (thought this is only a paper adjustment and does not effect cash).

Hence, the increase in forecast this year is not solely due to business growth but also due to the elimination of some historic costs. If you look back over some of the older posts you will find more detailed calculations and opinions on the impact the two different EPS figures have on the share price.

All IMHO and DYOR

Fund

Thank you very much.

Writing down goods of no value improves results for next year (on paper)

I have bought and sold these shares over a period of 4 or more years.

But will continue to hold ofr the next 3-6months.