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DOW JONES @ LIVECHARTS

Afternoon everybody:
Just got in to see that the dow is moving in positive territory today being the first main day of full week.The dollar is getting a pasting everywhere and gold is rising. What are your views for today. I reckon it will head north today and late in the day will start trekking south.It looks like its at a precipice and could fall heavily if it does-so trade wisely and keep tight stps.Go with the flow.

rgds
zarif

Afternoon zarif.
Just recovered from a graphics card failure.
I think your scenario is likely.
I'll pop in nearer the close to see what the market is doing.

The number of people I know that have large shorts, presume they were doing well earlier, but now :-(

Lw -regarding shorts or longs- I always say to everyone to put a minimal amount on first as a tester and then put with a normal stake and add to it as a "pyramid" that way is safer (says he).

rgds
zarif

I know what you mean. I started with 1 contract, now I'm up to 4, and so tempted to add. I think I'm going to have a snack, and then come back in see................

Looks like the dow is going to make a run for it!

lw; just closed the long at 10529. i think u r right about the rocket up -it has been doing that lately but since the long was on the daily one i decided to take the cash and amm watching to see if any opps come up.

rgds
zarif

Good for you.

This is the third day it has traded in this range. I wonder how long it will continue.
Isn't a rise in volatility (as now) a warning of a 'correction'?
Still flat at the moment.

Long at 10516 (Jan future).

Had a small short overnight which I closed and turned into an even smaller long earlier at 10511.

The next 30 min will be interesting.

Momentum jockeys are riding their favorites to new highs while this bear remains sidelined. Indices may top out today and begin correction.

Today's Stock Market View
Trader's Note: Stocks bulled higher once again yesterday, as the jaw-dropping momentum game continues. There are many bullish technical formations out there, but the fundamentals and sentiment levels are spiraling out of control at this point, and the common-sense side of my trading psyche simply won't allow me to press the buy button at these levels. I will remain sidelined until a real downtick begins to test the markets' mettle. That downtick - or at least signs of sluggishness - may materialize as soon as today.

Economic Items This Week:

Today - 15:00 GMT - US Dec. ISM Services, Nov. Factory Orders
Thursday - US Weekly Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories, Consumer Credit
Friday - US Dec. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Dec. Unemployment Rate
Today's ISM Services number 30 minutes after the opening is the main economic event for today. Can the level of upside surprise match last Friday's manufacturing number? There are no major earnings reports today. Yesterday's solid report from Walgreens was met with solid buying - though it had sold off heavily just before the report. Walgreens is hardly representative of the broader market.

6 Jan 2004 17:07 BS =DJ UPDATE: US Factory Orders Take Biggest Drop In 7 Months




By Jeff Bater
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. factory goods orders took their largest fall in seven months during November, making a broad-based decline that included lower demand for computers and cars.

Overall orders decreased by 1.4% to $336.91 billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

The decline was the first in three months. Demand for manufactured goods climbed an upwardly revised 2.4% in October and rose 1.4% in September.

"I am in no way disheartened by the fact orders were down," said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics in Pepper Pike, Ohio. "It's kind of like a couple steps forward and one step backward. The momentum is still clearly in an upward direction."

A separate report by a private research group on the U.S. service sector showed a slower rate of growth in December. The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing index moved to 58.6 from 60.1 in November and 64.7 in October. Readings above 50, nonetheless, indicate expanding activity. The reading did fall short of the 60.5 expected by economists.

The government's factory orders report, on the other hand, was close to expectations on Wall Street. Analysts had predicted orders would slide by 1.5% for November.

The drop in factory demand was the largest since April. The factory data follow another report in the new year that pointed to a strengthening U.S. manufacturing sector. The ISM on Friday reported its index of manufacturing activity climbed in December to 66.2, its best reading since December 1983. Readings above 50 point to expansion in manufacturing activity.

While factory orders declined in November, shipments were flat, following big increases, the Commerce report said.

"In no way has the major picture changed here," Mayland said. "This economy is ramping up, particularly the manufacturing sector."

The Commerce Department revised up an earlier estimate for November durable goods orders. It said demand for products designed to last at least three years decreased by 2.5%; a previous estimate said durables fell 3.1%

Non-durable goods orders went down 0.2% after rising 0.6% in October.

Consumer-goods orders decreased by 0.2% after rising 0.6% in October. Consumer durable-goods orders were down by 0.9%; consumer non-durables were flat.

Demand for transportation-related goods declined by 1.3%, led by a decrease in aircraft. Non-defense aircraft and parts orders fell 13.9%. Defense aircraft orders went down 9.1%.

Orders for cars and parts slid 1.8%. But orders for ships and boats more than doubled with a 126.5% leap. Excluding transportation orders, overall factory orders would have declined 1.5%.

Defense capital-goods orders declined 4.6% in November. Without taking into account defense orders, factory orders would have gone down 1.3%.

Orders for non-defense capital goods - items meant to endure at least 10 years - fell 5.1% if aircraft orders are excluded. Overall, non-defense capital goods orders decreased by 5.7%.

Demand for computers and electronic products tumbled 10.7% - the largest decline since July 2000's 12.4% drop. Orders for primary metals went down 2.5%; machinery orders increased 2.1% and electrical equipment and appliances sank by 2.4%.

Unfilled orders rose by 0.7%. Factory inventories went down 0.2%.


-By Jeff Bater; Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-6616; jeff.bater@dowjones.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 06, 2004 11:07 ET (16:07 GMT)

What somebody had posted on the TB - now that would be nice if it happened.As melnibone said earlier "IF" is only a two letter word but is it "heavy"
Ps: below post was not by melnibone.
rgds
zarif

"When the FTSE closed @ 4:30 the US markets were getting ready to fall 200+ ;-)))) well I hope so, up 3% or pulled back whichever way you look at it ;-)))"

DOW 10510
NASDAQ 2046
S&P 1120

1700 gmt and dow still in -ve territory.

1700 gmt and dow still in -ve territory.

ooops - i am sure i posted the above only once!!!!!

"Indices may top out today and begin correction."

How many times have we heard this since March?

If we traded this advice we wouldn't make any money.

Snoball - u r quite right as when i found it i was quite amazed (by saxo bank analysis) It illustrates the point of avoiding "noise" from so called gurus,Gloomberg etc. Go with the flow -we all know a correction is due but let the market decide aour actions and not to pre-empt it.

rgds
zarif

All we have to do is remember who is controlling this market and why.