ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

toad44: It is difficult to answer your question without some knowledge of your own investment objectives. From a charting perspective if the SP breaks 70p on an EOD basis, that would be a clear Sell signal to me and you would look to buy back once it bounces from a support level (70p?). At the moment all my charting indicators...the ones I use, suggest it is a Sell. However if you bought the share at a much lower price than you find it today then you may want to hold. From a fundamental perspective, ASOS has a high PE ratio going forward, so the market expects it to continue to deliver stunning results, but against that background there is a worry that retail spending may fall back a tad and that might have an impact on future results and hence the SP. There is also the planned move to a new wharehouse, now when it is up and running that will be a SP positive, but until that time there is a lot that can go wrong, and many retail analysts have heard all about moves to new wharehouses to increase efficiency etc, only to read company statements about problems with the move impacting this years results...

I anticipate that Shares Magazine will feature ASOS in tomorrows copy so that may boost the SP...we will see.

I hope that is helpful to you...it is only my view and you ahould of course reach your own judgement about the share. Indeed I anticipate a flood of responses putting forward alternate views!

JGT

JGT,
Thanks for your opinion. My holding is 25000, mostly bought in the 24 / 49 price range, and waiting for the magic 100p forecast by the broker. Shall watch out, eagerly as always, for opinion in Shares Mag.
Will also look forward for other comments.

johngtudor,
Happy new year, reading your post I am intrigued to know the indicators you use and the programmes, I am using metastock 9.0, supercharts 4 and fairshares portfolio. and I come up with roughly the same. unfortunately I dont have the depth of vision you have. SD

toad

I am not going to quarrel with the opinions of the chartists who I respect and I see what they mean. Trading has been within a triangle which interetingly replicates that of three months earlier; the support level is now being tested. I understand the theory to say that breaking that support is itself a sell signal. John also discussed the fundamental issues and I would like to add a couple of more bullish points. First, as referred to in my Hemscott post, more publicity is being given to the switch from High Street to internet buying, so there is not doubt about the growth in the market that ASOS is acting in. Second, there was little information about forward plans in the trading statement. We know already that they are going live with Miss Sixty at better prices than the Miss Sixty shops; their own label goods are scheduled for March; this thread teased out of them their interest in DTV selling; increased volume will lead to increased net margins because of constrained overheads; they appear to have a safe pair of hands and should take the new warehouse in their stride. I would conclude that, if the support level at 70p holds, then the next major move will be up, into new levels. A break South would then give a good buying opportunity.

Eric

Look guys, I know someone that might offload all 200k of their asc shares, that bought at 8p same as me - done well havent they??!!!can't be good for the sp can it?? Take it or leave it.

Don't say i didn't warn you.

legend

I don't think I would be too alarmed at that! Typical daily volume is 1 million shares, so 200K is just a blip. What's he going to do with the money. If re-investing, I wouldn't sell them all but nor would I hold them all. What would I do? Depends on CGT! Has he held them for two years, in which case he can be more free and easy. If not, I would just sell up to the allowance, the same next year and hold for the two year period. Present price is just above a clear resistance level. OK, I want to move into other shares. Well, why not borrow the funds which would cost a lot less than CGT. Better, trade in CFDs without share ownership and therefore tax. I do agree, however, that your friend is quite typical of a number of shareholders and that is probably the primary explanation of the sp easing back. I noticed the phenomenon with a number of shares which had a good run in 2003 that they eased back in the new year, probably primarily explained by investors trying to repeat their success with other shares; I did that to a certain extent myself. So, ASC could ease back further and we need some positive news before long; I'm sure there is plenty in the pipeline.

Eric

Looks like the 70p support has been broken.

And what do you know buyers are back in.

There are sellers around clearly. Yes outstanding company, fundamentally overvalued. Wins have a list of them apparently.

in come a few more buyers. A close of 70p or above may indicate a more productive day tomorrow- positively, it would seem the stop-loss fruit may have been shaken from the tree.

onwards and upwards from now on, shorters being burnt, t10ers closed out, MMs square....game on

legend

Don't agree your 'fundamentally overvalued point'. ASC have been a sell on technical analysis and are testing a resistance level currently - judges out on that one. A lot of holders out there with terrific profits, as your friend; sensible tactics to reduce cost to zero as I have already done. But I would argue that fundamentals are strong: value fair on current knowledge but the tricks up their sleeve are not valued in. I note that hitwise figures have held up near to the Christmas levels and twice the level of last year. I would see the message as buy/accumulate on dips.

Eric

legend iam surprised at your comments overvalued,if you are buying or holding at current levels you are hoping the high growth rate can go on.with new products that started from the middle of last year and new ones to be added this year from my own view is a hold or accumulate,with 70p the stop loss.which brings me on to yesterdays trading the sp finished above the 70p level which saw buyers come in for the stock.with no news expected for a few months from the co all info is out in the open unless a bid comes in for co,so if you thinking of buying the sp looks like it is set for the trading range of 70p to 90p unless one or the other is broken the longer it stays in the trading range when breakout happens it will move fast up or down.cheers woodie

anybody any thoughts on this sp move cos i am puzzled

perhaps sheepishly??? suggestions of asc being overvalued seems to be playing a part, and once one lemming jumps there tends to be another close behind. still a close of 70+p again would be reassuring.

I haven't tracked institutional shareholdings, but there must be many out there adjusting their holdings downward after such a good run and no more good news to come for a while. Also a fair few punters taqkinjg their n-bagger profits. And why not. We all can too, if we think we can find a better home for our money right now. Don't forget, history is irrelevant - the market has no memory.

It's a real case of buy on promise, sell on result, since the TA on 6th(?) Jan. All the good news was in the price before the announcement. The announcement took it no further. The prospective PE 1 & 2 years out is quite high, even for such a star performer.

However, the evident good management, consolidation into a bigger warehouse that will last 5 years, increasing stocklines to 3,000 (equivalent to increasing shelf-footage in high-street terms, pretty much I guess) and the very fact of even merely achieving such predicted good growth with no excuses like, "sorry it'll be in next year's figures, cos we missed the boat this year" (see DEMG e.g.)

We seem to be in a classic wedge - converging support and resistance lines, induced by no real news. The longer it continues, when it does break, the bigger the movement - IN EITHER DIRECTION. However, the fall below 70p today is a little unnerving. But, the buyers are back in at 67.x p - only punters, no institutions judging by the size of the deals.

Classic dilemma - wish I'd been rude enough to sell at 88p back last year - but I want the money in 14 year's time (my personal game plan), so I can wait. I don't expect whole number multiples from now on but good double digit increase in share price and eventually in the dividend for a few years would suit.

Sorry for the ramble through my cluttered mind.

Lucan , thanks for reply , i know the background , it was the technical situation and the moving bid , offer for no good reason that i could see. Following CSH as well and the frightners have just been put on there as well. Low volume day all round probably causing all this

Maddoctor

Perhaps its just the MM's shaking a little bit out at a cheap price to replenish what they've been selling higher recently, then they'll move the price back up again as they go back in to sell mode - nothing large, just the diurnal round of get a little, get a little.

10k of shares sold by director yesterday