The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

can,t get backing for jumbo mortgages unless they have an interest rate of 10%

FIRST uk ONE I HAVE SEEN

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.K. hedge-fund manager Solent Capital said Monday it was going to wind down one of its funds because of a downturn in value in the asset-backed securities it contains, the latest fallout from the global credit crisis.

The fund, called the Mainsail II, was invested in commercial mortgage-backed, residential mortgage-backed securities, and collateralized debt obligations, according to a statement released by the company.
The fund may have a forced sale of investments or a closing out of hedging instruments at a loss that may "materially" impact principal and interest repayments, Soleil said.
Many of these securities have struggled in the aftermath of poorer U.S. borrowers failing to repay mortgages, as well as downgrades by credit-rating agencies that meant that some investors were no longer permitted to invest.
"Current market volatility and lack of market liquidity with respect to sub-prime lending markets have caused adverse conditions with respect to the liquidity and market risk exposures on the company's underlying portfolio of investments," Solent said.
'Current market volatility and lack of market liquidity with respect to sub-prime lending markets have caused adverse conditions with respect to the liquidity and market risk exposures on the company's underlying portfolio of investments.'
Solent Capital

interesting tug-of-war going on on Wall Street to see if 13000 can be held ..... too close to call at the moment, the index flopping either side ..... if that psychological level fails, then the REAL test is 12800

at the moment, the bulls seem to have outrun the bears, at least for this evening .... however, and i post this as much for myself as you guys, to believe that this scare has run its course would be foolhardy in the extreme ..... great diligence and fleetness of foot will be required if the smell of burnt flesh is to be avoided

If you look back at previous known bear markets and the bull peaks preceeding them, you should notice the peaks and troughs can often be three or months apart. This is often the reason for people losing money. The recovery can be slow, and as things become normal, investors with cash are impatient to reinvest. Hopefully the above illustrates. This is the key reason why when I decide to quit the market I stay clear for at least 2 years. Economies and the changes within them are slow to play out.

In my opinion.....

Strawbs.

You have admirable self-control strawbs. I presume you have a rich blend of short positions.

though what much of what you say is right, i am surprised that you ever decide to invest in shares at all! ..... no one can ever know quite when either a bull or bear market has begun or even ended ....... however, even when either is in full swing, money can be made, always provided you remember to be very diligent and restrain the greed - difficult in both aspects!

Well I don't have short positions because I don't use CFD's or spreadbets. I think both need careful monitoring because of leverage and margin, and I don't have the time during the day to do so.

My methods won't time the bottom or the top of the market, but they have served me well enough to make and leave with a profit. The simplest of chart patterns combined with economic activity and research will tell you when a bull market may have started. The same can also be said for detecting a bear market, although you have to look for more confirmation whilst waiting on the sidelines.

Strawbs.

the fat lady ain,t singing yet

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Capital One Financial Corp. fell 5% during Monday's late-trading session after the giant credit-card company said it was closing its wholesale mortgage unit, cutting 1,900 jobs.

Capital One shares dropped 5% to $63.38. The company said it will immediately stop originating mortgages through its GreenPoint Mortgage business, which offers loans through brokers.
The company also said it will close GreenPoint's California-based headquarters along with 31 locations across 19 states. That will mean the elimination of roughly 1,900 jobs, most of which will go by the end of 2007, Capital One (COF:Capital One Financial Corporation
"Current conditions in the secondary mortgage markets create significant near-term profitability challenges," Capital One said in a statement. "Further, recent and continuing developments in the mortgage markets reduce the long-term outlook for profitability in the business, as the company expects markets for prime, non-conforming mortgage products are likely to remain challenged

am quite tempted to short Dow ....... late yesterday evening, it tried to rush upwards, but fell back equally sharply towards close (yes, i shut that little long at a v small profit, but better than a loss) ....... just get the feeling (not logic) that it will require almost nothing for a slide to re-commence

Assuming the recent bounces where heavy short covering and not a massive outbreak of bullishness, then a sudden wobble could well cause another downleg. I notice the FTSE seems to be drifting back down today, presumably to test support at 6000 again.

In my opinion....

Strawbs.

Hmmm. Bit surprised as Nikkei had a good session & DOW was flat yesterday.
Presumably as we get closer to the bank holiday most poeple will want to close their positions.

am following my gut feel in a modest way

Sell in May and don't come back until St Ledgers day (and thats in September).

My god, anyone would think we are in bull market months.

This is SUMMER. This is AUGUST........and markets in general go to sleep during this month.

They start to wake up in September and start to fire on all cylinders come end of September.

Corporate earnings are fine..........The world economy is fine...........all you are seeing is a play on the sub-prime by some very rich people who want to force the Fed to drop interest rates.

Thats all imo.......a few more weeks of wobbles and then kick off for the Sept to March boom time (as per every year) then begins.

If the Fed cuts interest rates, expect it to start earlier.

I'd disagree with several points there, PP.

Sept/Oct has often seen steep declines and I'm not certain any economy is fine when it's built on a mountain of debt, re highly leveraged balance sheets, massive mortgage/income ratios, etc, etc, etc.

Sept/Oct has seen some steep declines, but never when precipitated by a steep August decline.

There is always a summer sell off, sometimes it comes late.

If there is a credit problem.......then why is the number 1 credit orientated item (house prices) not tumbling down 10% a month ?

If house prices start to collapse, then I wil believe there is a credit problem, untl then, its just an excuse to push the Fed for a rate cut............manipulative people in the states causing an issue, to get their reward (a rate cut)

2-3 year fixed deals taken out before the majority of interest rate rises are likely to be unwound over the coming 12-18 months. Rightmove have confimred this week that prices are turning and they have a vested interest. They also only look at asking prices, if I remember, and Joe Public still has rose-tinted specs on when it comes to the value of bricks and mortar.

The day is coming, PP, make no mistake.

so is tomorrow - lol!

i lied ..... tomorrow never comes ..... it's christmas that's coming

Don't think this can't happen here. We have our own sub-prime version. A 93% rise in one year!! Also, don't forget what has fuelled the consumer spending boom stateside - yup, massive increases in house prices, which were remortgaged to provide spending money. That reminds me, I must hpnoe Ocean, Nortn, Picture or Greenhill for a loan and secure it on my house. LOL. That's UK sub-prime IMO.


U.S. foreclosures rise sharply in July
AFX


LOS ANGELES (AP) - Foreclosure filings rose 9 percent from June to July and surged 93 percent over the same period last year, with Nevada, Georgia and Michigan accounting for the highest foreclosure rates nationwide, a research firm said Tuesday.

The filings include default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. The figures are the latest measure of the ailing housing market, which has seen defaults and foreclosures soar as financially strapped borrowers have failed to make payments or find buyers.

In all, 179,599 foreclosure filings were reported during July, up from 92,845 in the year-ago month, according to Irvine-based RealtyTrac Inc.

A total of 164,644 foreclosure filings were reported in June.

The national foreclosure rate in July was one filing for every 693 households, the firm said.

'While 43 states experienced year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity, just five states -- California, Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Georgia -- accounted for more than half of the nation's total foreclosure filings,' said RealtyTrac Chief Executive James J. Saccacio.

Nevada posted the highest foreclosure rate: one filing for every 199 households, or more than three times the national average. It reported 5,116 filings during the month, an increase of 8 percent from June.

Georgia's foreclosure rate was more than twice the national average, with one filing for every 299 households. The state reported 12,602 foreclosure filings, up 75 percent from June.

Michigan reported 13,979 filings in July, a 39 percent spike from June.

California, Florida, and Ohio were among the states with the highest number of foreclosure filings in July, the firm said.

California cities continued to dominate top metropolitan foreclosure rates.

The state reported 39,013 foreclosure filings last month, the most by any single state, but the number of filings rose less than 1 percent from June's total.

The state's foreclosure rate was one filing for every 333 households, RealtyTrac said.

Florida's foreclosure filings fell 9 percent between June and July to 19,179. The July figure represents a 78 percent jump from a year ago.

RealtyTrac did not say if a single property received more than one notice. The company did not break out the exact property count.

In recent months, the mortgage industry has been battered by rising defaults and foreclosures, primarily driven by borrowers with subprime loans and adjustable rate mortgages.

Lagging home sales and flat or decreasing home prices have made it more difficult for homeowners who fall behind on payments to sell their homes and clear the debt, spurring the rise in foreclosure activity.