ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

toad

I am not going to quarrel with the opinions of the chartists who I respect and I see what they mean. Trading has been within a triangle which interetingly replicates that of three months earlier; the support level is now being tested. I understand the theory to say that breaking that support is itself a sell signal. John also discussed the fundamental issues and I would like to add a couple of more bullish points. First, as referred to in my Hemscott post, more publicity is being given to the switch from High Street to internet buying, so there is not doubt about the growth in the market that ASOS is acting in. Second, there was little information about forward plans in the trading statement. We know already that they are going live with Miss Sixty at better prices than the Miss Sixty shops; their own label goods are scheduled for March; this thread teased out of them their interest in DTV selling; increased volume will lead to increased net margins because of constrained overheads; they appear to have a safe pair of hands and should take the new warehouse in their stride. I would conclude that, if the support level at 70p holds, then the next major move will be up, into new levels. A break South would then give a good buying opportunity.

Eric

Look guys, I know someone that might offload all 200k of their asc shares, that bought at 8p same as me - done well havent they??!!!can't be good for the sp can it?? Take it or leave it.

Don't say i didn't warn you.

legend

I don't think I would be too alarmed at that! Typical daily volume is 1 million shares, so 200K is just a blip. What's he going to do with the money. If re-investing, I wouldn't sell them all but nor would I hold them all. What would I do? Depends on CGT! Has he held them for two years, in which case he can be more free and easy. If not, I would just sell up to the allowance, the same next year and hold for the two year period. Present price is just above a clear resistance level. OK, I want to move into other shares. Well, why not borrow the funds which would cost a lot less than CGT. Better, trade in CFDs without share ownership and therefore tax. I do agree, however, that your friend is quite typical of a number of shareholders and that is probably the primary explanation of the sp easing back. I noticed the phenomenon with a number of shares which had a good run in 2003 that they eased back in the new year, probably primarily explained by investors trying to repeat their success with other shares; I did that to a certain extent myself. So, ASC could ease back further and we need some positive news before long; I'm sure there is plenty in the pipeline.

Eric

Looks like the 70p support has been broken.

And what do you know buyers are back in.

There are sellers around clearly. Yes outstanding company, fundamentally overvalued. Wins have a list of them apparently.

in come a few more buyers. A close of 70p or above may indicate a more productive day tomorrow- positively, it would seem the stop-loss fruit may have been shaken from the tree.

onwards and upwards from now on, shorters being burnt, t10ers closed out, MMs square....game on

legend

Don't agree your 'fundamentally overvalued point'. ASC have been a sell on technical analysis and are testing a resistance level currently - judges out on that one. A lot of holders out there with terrific profits, as your friend; sensible tactics to reduce cost to zero as I have already done. But I would argue that fundamentals are strong: value fair on current knowledge but the tricks up their sleeve are not valued in. I note that hitwise figures have held up near to the Christmas levels and twice the level of last year. I would see the message as buy/accumulate on dips.

Eric

legend iam surprised at your comments overvalued,if you are buying or holding at current levels you are hoping the high growth rate can go on.with new products that started from the middle of last year and new ones to be added this year from my own view is a hold or accumulate,with 70p the stop loss.which brings me on to yesterdays trading the sp finished above the 70p level which saw buyers come in for the stock.with no news expected for a few months from the co all info is out in the open unless a bid comes in for co,so if you thinking of buying the sp looks like it is set for the trading range of 70p to 90p unless one or the other is broken the longer it stays in the trading range when breakout happens it will move fast up or down.cheers woodie

anybody any thoughts on this sp move cos i am puzzled

perhaps sheepishly??? suggestions of asc being overvalued seems to be playing a part, and once one lemming jumps there tends to be another close behind. still a close of 70+p again would be reassuring.

I haven't tracked institutional shareholdings, but there must be many out there adjusting their holdings downward after such a good run and no more good news to come for a while. Also a fair few punters taqkinjg their n-bagger profits. And why not. We all can too, if we think we can find a better home for our money right now. Don't forget, history is irrelevant - the market has no memory.

It's a real case of buy on promise, sell on result, since the TA on 6th(?) Jan. All the good news was in the price before the announcement. The announcement took it no further. The prospective PE 1 & 2 years out is quite high, even for such a star performer.

However, the evident good management, consolidation into a bigger warehouse that will last 5 years, increasing stocklines to 3,000 (equivalent to increasing shelf-footage in high-street terms, pretty much I guess) and the very fact of even merely achieving such predicted good growth with no excuses like, "sorry it'll be in next year's figures, cos we missed the boat this year" (see DEMG e.g.)

We seem to be in a classic wedge - converging support and resistance lines, induced by no real news. The longer it continues, when it does break, the bigger the movement - IN EITHER DIRECTION. However, the fall below 70p today is a little unnerving. But, the buyers are back in at 67.x p - only punters, no institutions judging by the size of the deals.

Classic dilemma - wish I'd been rude enough to sell at 88p back last year - but I want the money in 14 year's time (my personal game plan), so I can wait. I don't expect whole number multiples from now on but good double digit increase in share price and eventually in the dividend for a few years would suit.

Sorry for the ramble through my cluttered mind.

Lucan , thanks for reply , i know the background , it was the technical situation and the moving bid , offer for no good reason that i could see. Following CSH as well and the frightners have just been put on there as well. Low volume day all round probably causing all this

Maddoctor

Perhaps its just the MM's shaking a little bit out at a cheap price to replenish what they've been selling higher recently, then they'll move the price back up again as they go back in to sell mode - nothing large, just the diurnal round of get a little, get a little.

10k of shares sold by director yesterday

lucan

Good post! The support tested today but without conviction - a break S would seem very unlikely because there is no fundamental motive for it. ASC have been pretty good with a drip, drip process of good news so it shouldn't be long before we have a bit more. I reduced a very overweight position myself by about a third at an average of about 80p: the present sideways trading pattern must be getting rid of quite a lot of short-term funds which is all for the good. Looking at the buys over the last couple of days, there have been 8 of around 25K, 4 around 50K and 1 of 100K shares: quite large for a private investor so some could have been institutions. Plenty of life in the 'quite young' girl left!

Eric

Eric et al:I don't think there are any really big Institutional holders in on this company yet? They will come along in due course but there needs to be sufficient stock available to make it worthwhile...so look for big sales in the future.

Good recovery today for weekly EOD figures...the all important market sentiment now starts to have a bearing....IMO!

SEADOG: Greetings. Metastock is an excellent package..for myself I use Sharescoope and eSignal. The fact is that today we are spoilt for choice with a lot of very good charting packages available...but it is important to have a good source of EOD data! I just have a number of simple filters I use for scanning stocks and have got used to using these packages now. Good luck with your future useage of Metastock.

John

http://www.lemminginvestor.com/ASOSq3tradingJan21.html?1106330764343

The 10k shares sold was after the 100k option taken up at 4.5p ???
Eric , plse send your address by email I have two copies of a magasine you may be interested in. I will post to you.