Why are we again at 10.5p bid?

It doesn't add up...

Good Results + Strong buying pre results + Christmas online buying soon = Price drop

Then again some companies that have debt for equity hanging in the balance, poor results and bankruptcy around the corner and they go up!

Why sell now at a loss?

Wont that be a kick in the teeth when we see 13.5p 14p again!

Best of luck all.

31-12-2004 eps1.13p p/e15.04 peg ratio 0.98 eps growth 15.31%

And courtesy crazi

T/Over DC 3.5M RTD 30.0M
Profit DC .7m RTD 5.9m
Adj EPS DC 1.67p RTD 1.4p
Mkt Cap DC 34m RTD 48m
Sh price DC 78.5p RTD 17.25p
P/e DC 47 RTD 12.3


RTD FACTS AND FUNDAMENTALS
* 41% average Gain to turnover
* 20 average profit margin to turnover (twice as good as NSB for example)
* 12.86m gain turnaround
* 5.9m profit
* Turning a -3.6p eps into +0.5p eps
* Cash position Strong
* Initial (admittently Conservative) house broker projection FY04 of 1.06p eps
* Posting a very impressive Maiden profit after only 3 years
* Global leader and Globally positioned - very impressive blue chip client base
* Excellent outlook from the conservative announcement Management Team
* Control and Manage the UK fraud database for all other companies
* Signing many new contracts at end 03 (doubt if they are factored into results.)
* Have signed some new contracts already in Jan 04. Not factored into results.
* Almost Debt free
* "ALL" divisions globally now Cash Positive
* Reduced interest payments expected - increasing FY04 bottom line
* Very tidy in house overheads as can be seen by the profit and turnover margins and 03 turnaround
* Management not interested in any buy out offers anywhere in this price region
* Consultancy Management division expanding into many countries unreachable by internet.
* Market Cap 50 million increasing exposure from 03
* CnP business strategy working well with 186% increase in transactions
* CP business phasing out strategy working well with Europe turning it's first cash positive period even during the phase out.
* 04 starting strong and in line with expectations (management announcment)


MARKET AND SECTOR CONDITIONS
* Internet CnP market expected to continue the boom over 04 and 05
* Market and tech stocks stabilising off a recent consolidation
* Internet retail very positive sentiment from the city perspective "finally"
* Expected boost in Tech investment in 04, entering peak 3 year cycle, backed up by a climbing FTSE since 03, Blue Chip cash piles, Pension holes being filled, and where the city openly admit RTD was dragged down with TECH in 2000 unfairly from a 3.84 share price and fundamentals nowhere near as impressive as they just posted...ie dropped with tech - will climb with tech.


CURRENT POSITIVE POINTS - EXPECTATIONS(short term)
* Second recent Director buy (Friday past). First before closed period. Major confidence boost from the one person that knows all about RTD. The "Financial Director" buying should change recent shorting sentiment and momentum
* New "Tax year" (Old tax year now gone and with it most stocks sell offs)
* New "Financial Year" will release new budgets for investment and new business plan strategies. Many will want in or increase presence in the Internet retail boom
* 5 weeks of share price being managed and hammered (now a positive with current share price)
* 4 weeks now past in post results period. The usual dust settling period. Should slowly start moving back into investor territory. Volatility decreasing.
* Shorters still unable to produce any fault with fundamentals
* CP chip n pin introduction will help force fraud further onto the net. Should increase security awareness further on the net = new contracts
* AGM at end April. Should be positive. Probable contract announcements to help boost incentive scheme



CURRENT NEGETIVE POINTS (short/med term)
* Still the PR department not notifying of any news. Way to quiet even when new contracts being signed. Especially in overseas branches
* Cash strong but not yet released a divi (however I do expect one by FY04)
* Recently Trader driven though decreasing (hopefully ending)
* Resistance at 22p

**********************
POST RESULT BROKER RECOMENDATIONS, REGIONS, POTENTIAL VALUE
(Med term - 3 covering RTD)
* Oriel Securities = HOLD at 26p
(44.5% Value from 18p)
* Dryden Wealth Management = STRONG BUY at 25p (to where - 29p?)
(61% Value from 18p)
* Daniel Stewart (House B)= STRONG BUY and increases target from 27p to 31p.
(72% Value from 18p)
* All above recommendations have been re-iterated since announced
**********************

zscrooge great post, thanks

I decided to top up on Friday, I think the downtrend is now halted and we should see some movement in the right direction in the coming weeks.

All the best

OG

Zscrooge, many thanks for your post. Where do you get the summary of broker recommendations from?

hemscott - try for free for a bit

While I'm on - take it you all know of the buy note

Retail Decisions (RTD.L), is a fully integrated risk management solutions provider, focussed on the payment transaction processing and payment card fraud-prevention markets. Following discussions with management, we see no reason for the recent share price weakness. The company currently trades on a forward annualised P/e of 12.1x,a discount of 38% compared to a UK small cap software sector, which trades on 19.5x. Given the companies strong growth profile, and high-quality of earnings, we feel this is unjustified. We consider the fundamentals to be sound A dominant player in a niche market, RTD.L is a profitable, cash generative operation, with a blue-chip customer base including Walmart, MM02, The Royal Bank of Scotland and AT&T. The UK Chip & PIN initiative, combined with increasing numbers of e-commerce transactions are expected to further accelerate rates of fraud in the card not present environment, a non-cyclical growth market. Our 12.8% forecast growth in earnings to FY 2005e is underpinned by organic market growth, whilst the downside risks are mitigated by strong recurrent revenues. Despite posting FY 2003 figures ahead of market expectations, the share price has fallen from a twelve month high of 27p. We consider this fall to be unjustified, and with a compelling growth story, retain our Strong Buy recommendation, with a price target of 31p, representing 85% upside to the current price. For further information on RTD.L, please refer to our initiation of coverage note of March 2004, accessible on www.danielstewart.co.uk

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/040414/336/eqzt6.html

Zomby

It is worth looking in detail at the accounts as to how the EPS is made up. In this years results there was an adjusted EPS of 1.4p and a basic EPS of 0.5p. The differential between the two is mainly due to three factors: interest, ammortisation and exceptionals. My expectations is that for this year two of the three will be negligible - they will continue to ammortise (thought this is only a paper adjustment and does not effect cash).

Hence, the increase in forecast this year is not solely due to business growth but also due to the elimination of some historic costs. If you look back over some of the older posts you will find more detailed calculations and opinions on the impact the two different EPS figures have on the share price.

All IMHO and DYOR

Fund

Thank you very much.

Writing down goods of no value improves results for next year (on paper)

I have bought and sold these shares over a period of 4 or more years.

But will continue to hold ofr the next 3-6months.

Some good information over the weekend, thank you all. Actually, if you re-work the figs on the current price of 17p, earnings 1.4p, there's an actual p/e of 12 on last yr's profit's and as Fund says, with writedowns etc being negligible and a growth conservatively estaimated at 15%, this will come down below 10 this yr. With so many tipsters picking rtd at the beginning of the yr when share price was much higher, and short term shorting, surely the price is going to re-bound quite quickly as thsi info will be made clear in articles to come. I'm very surprised at the current share price as it is so obviously a Steal at this level. The shorters will have to buy back soon and the mm's will make the most of that.

This as we all know was way over sold and still just off the bottom, but this is set to change, buying support firm at this level and as soon as we breach 18, it's all the way up to 23. Don't get left behind!

When ever I feel happy about a share I hold I look at the graph to remind of previous times such as these:-

Price of RTD Share Date
384p 18/3/00
95p 10/5/02
2.25p 13/9/02


TFC even more pain I won't give the figures.

Just to remind me to out in STOP LOSSES. I don't want to loose as much this time.

Apparently some successful traders work out how much they can tolerate to loose every night before thinking of what they are holding or going to buy!!!!!!

Those were crazy days when tech shares were in a bubble, much like house prices now, but RTD is now real value, in fact it's undervalued and anyway the price is set to recover strongly, I've got a feeling :o)

A month and a half we all had to suffer again due to MMs. However, as around christmas time, the tide is turning and we should be heading towards 30p in next few months. Its a good job i'm patient.

I used to have a lot of patients, but as I get older I am a little less patient.

Like you I think the share is now undervalued and the Legal Problem is of little importance, other than it helped to depress the price about a month ago.

Yes Doctor, what legal problem?

Starting to go up.. another share which was oversold in my opinion was OXB but see that's shot up 33% this week, so RTD's turn tomorrow. Interest returns to tech stocks, this won't be left behind.

Very witty Robstuff

Sorry. Engaged my fingers tips before my brain.

Rather confuse. I was making cloudy links again without checking. I was thinking of information regarding the fray between TFC and ITH?

(I have been in and out of TFC and RTD on an off since I was young.)

Sorry.

Rumour has it that institutions have started to buy in. RTD could well be back over 20p very soon.

where did you hear this rumour then?

From an extremely reliable source in the US.

Having looked at the last weeks trades there is possibly small evidence to support this. A large number of 500k blocks have gone through (often recorded as sells though the price has gone up). We will only get an RNS on institutional buying once they buy in excess of 8m shares so still looks unlikely in the short term.

For the time being the share appears to have bottomed out (famous last words) and hopefully will start to climb slowly upto the AGM where we will get confirmation that trading is strong/new contracts etc.

Or as Douggie would say :))))))))