goldfinger
- 12 Jun 2007 10:12
- 1081 of 3050
Cynic 5.88 will be the take out price, thats when the 10% dilution kicks in and further tax increases are on the way with competition on the horizon.
If this one thinks it can compete using scrap silicon as a raw material it had better think again.
Ill be shorting it big time.
The cracks and chinks are already opening, I can see it crashing.
moneyplus
- 12 Jun 2007 10:16
- 1082 of 3050
next quarter figures due at the end of the month so we'll soon get a clearer picture. champagne on GF everyone -if we hit 12 ?? lemonade on us if we drop to 50p!!
goldfinger
- 12 Jun 2007 10:31
- 1083 of 3050
MP, those will be very interesting indeed.
No doubt we will get the usual ramp up in production capacity, but the problem is Brokers and PIs are putting too much emphasis on these figures.
Yes its very nice to be able to report the ramp up and that the capacity as been contracted, but being a business man as taught me to never ever count the profits until the cash is in the bank, and thats were this one is falling down as the management from the accounts dont appear to be able to generate cash.
Theres also the tiny matter of a ramp up in capacity as a whole in the market place. Can sola compete on scrap silicon as a raw material, not for much longer I feel.
kitosdad
- 12 Jun 2007 11:27
- 1084 of 3050
GF..... Don't forget to tell us when, and at what price, you open your short.!!!
Alleyne
- 12 Jun 2007 16:11
- 1085 of 3050
" Ill be shorting it big time." GF.
Why aren't you shorting it now?
The froth which you say needs to be wiped off is the stuff pouring out of your posts. You're a lot of noise and echo.
I don't think you are a businessman as you claim. You spend too long here snorting and farting and burbling.
This cash you said SOLA can't produce. There was nearly $37m of it collected in Q1 which will be SOLA's slowest quarter this year. That was over 40% of the total taken in 2006.
You are making a twonk of yourself here, tin-digit. Quit while your behind.
LOLs
Greyhound
- 12 Jun 2007 16:27
- 1086 of 3050
Alleyne, it wouldn't make sense to short yet, wait until nearer the conversion price. I much prefer new issue PVCS if you're solar inclined which is a good 25 year old sustainable business in for rapid change with wafer cutting coming onstream in Germany.
Alleyne
- 12 Jun 2007 17:19
- 1088 of 3050
'to either buy or sell could be both right and wrong - not as nonsensical as it sounds ' Agreed. How could anything possibly be that nonsensical ?
cynic
- 12 Jun 2007 17:24
- 1089 of 3050
do i really need to explain? ...... if you have big enough balls and can take them being stamped on a bit, then it is not inconceivable that (a) the price could initially rise from this point, perhaps to challenge the high of 640; so a nice turn there or (b) the price could initially fall from here having met the 560 resistance, with a turn to made in that direction ..... either way, it is quite likely that within the next 2 months (say) 560 could be challenged again either from above or below
Greyhound
- 12 Jun 2007 17:27
- 1090 of 3050
It also depends how greedy the converters are and the general economic climate at that point. Another massive US takeover and the picture turns rosy again. Personally I still think this is a bull market correction and that the China bubble will continue for some time yet. You won't see fund managers exiting because they're in danger of missing some terrific gains and undermining their performance versus the others! Funny old game.
Alleyne
- 12 Jun 2007 17:32
- 1091 of 3050
"Can sola compete on scrap silicon as a raw material, not for much longer I feel. "
And why exactly do you feel that way, tin-digit?
Greyhound
- 12 Jun 2007 17:38
- 1092 of 3050
The trouble with Sola (and I am long again for the time being) is that it's risen rapidly and could suffer equally quickly. It has the capability to increase capacity but it's not generating cash but it's the competitors that may have the ability to dent Sola's growth from here.
cynic
- 12 Jun 2007 17:42
- 1093 of 3050
purely out of curiosity, as i assume you are now running a tidy profit, have you put a trailing stop in place?
Alleyne
- 12 Jun 2007 17:47
- 1094 of 3050
cynic. LOLs 'do i really need to explain? ...... if you have big enough balls and can take them being stamped on a bit,' Fraid you do, cinnie. But firstly to yourself, I think. The only balls round here are the ones you're talking.
You're saying (like all wannabe Adlards) it could rise ('challenging the high or 640') or it could go down('having met the 560 resistance').'
________________________________________________________________
I want to be a chartist. Here's My Study At Home textbook.
_________________________________________________________
Lesson 1 :To be a Chartist
Practice saying this "It could go up, and it could go down.'
Lesson 2 :To Be a Chartist - How to NEVER GET IT WRONG
See Lesson 1
Lesson 3 on being a chartist.
'How to draw a straight line.'
Firstly, go to WH Smiths and buy a ruler.
____________________________________________________________________
There we are. I'm an expert chartist. That didn't take long did it. WOW.
LOLs
cynic
- 12 Jun 2007 17:51
- 1095 of 3050
and it is exactly because the chart gives no clear signal and because there are various issues surrounding SOLA at the moment, that i think the correct move is to stay still and do nothing! ..... now, if you want to take a new position at this juncture, then jolly good luck to you, but you may as well back a horse instead
Alleyne
- 12 Jun 2007 17:54
- 1096 of 3050
" but it's not generating cash" Sorry, wrong, see the Q1 accounts and amouints received. Must try harder. 4/10
"The trouble with Sola ..... is that it's risen rapidly and could suffer equally quickly'
(Oh Dear , 3/10.)
Could you explain that one from a logic-based, or reason-based, perspective, gh?
The shorters here are ruddy amateurs.
Alleyne
- 12 Jun 2007 17:57
- 1097 of 3050
"now, if you want to take a new position at this juncture, then jolly good luck to you, but you may as well back a horse instead "
cinnie, who exactly do you believe your audience is here? I don't hear anyone clamouring for your two-way-bet advice.
cynic
- 12 Jun 2007 18:29
- 1098 of 3050
imo, there is no 2-way bet, even if, as i wrote, it is probable that you could make (or lose) money whether you short or go long .... it all depends on how much pain you can withstand.
imo, the only sensible thing to do, unless you already hold, is to DO NOTHING
anyway, if by some chance i am talking bollox (yet again), i shall excuse myself through general senility!
by he way, are the shorters "amateurs" in your eyes because you think they are wrong? .... if so, there is an evens bet that will be made to eat your words within 2 months (say)!
Alleyne
- 12 Jun 2007 18:38
- 1099 of 3050
The intellectual bancruptcy among the potential shorters would be exemplified by their take-up of the phrase 'SOLA has risen rapidly and could suffer equally quickly.'
Anyone can see that SOLA has tracked sideways since January. An essentially arid sp duration. In the meanwhile the revenues have been growing by a three digit annual factor, and if anything, the shorters now run a risk of any new attack being launched at exactly the wrong moment.
Even lead-finger says it's rising to 588p. Just when the shorters start getting aroused by the trigger price, what's the betting Mr Bai announces 2008 growth plans.
Do you feel lucky?
Alleyne
- 12 Jun 2007 18:59
- 1100 of 3050
' are the shorters "amateurs" in your eyes because you think they are wrong? '
Not entirely. They are amateurs because of the deathly paucity of their argument. Examination of their detail, little as it is, shows that they cannot form a logical argument, and that makes them both wrong and poor-quality shorters.
As a starting point one has to ask oneself (blimey, I sound like Charles here, must stop) why would anyone, ever, in their right mind, consider shorting a company that is increasing revenues and profits by 200-300% annually, with a product whose demand cannot be met by supply? Is that enough ? More?
Let's face it. That's not really a clever-clogs thing to do is it? In fact that really sums up how the shorters are shooting themselves in the foot.
Secondly there is a lot of inaccuracy and also emotive stuff from them.
Goldy rattles on brainlessly about 'not generating cash' (covered that one, $36.6m received in Q1, I wont' go on), and with woosy semantics of 'froth', 'fireworks' and '(problems) with using scrap silicon.'
Not really very high quality stuff is it?
The thing is, he doesn't realise everyone is having a belly-laugh so he keeps on voicing the same flat brainwave. He's a bit like and old '45 rpm' with a scratch which causes the same sound to be repeated.
If the shorters want to commit slow-motion suicide here, so be it. I suppose it's worth thanking them for regularly supplying a healthy dollop of liquidity.
Prediction: Soon, a shorter will scrape the barrell floor and use the phrase 'beware' or 'be careful.'