ellio
- 15 May 2006 09:10
The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.
If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.
goldfinger
- 19 May 2006 13:04
- 109 of 1564
I think posters should have a look at the BA results on the front page here.
lets not forget they have had massive increases in fuel costs, but as it hurt them, I think not.
Theres just too much panic around.
goldfinger
- 19 May 2006 13:08
- 110 of 1564
In fact Ill post it here.........
BA tops expectations
MoneyAM
British Airways has reported a better-than-expected 21% increase in full year pretax profit.
The numbers were driven by growth in passengers travelling in premium price seats.
For the year to March 31st 2006, BA made a pretax profit of 620m, compared to analyst expectations of 548m-602m and 513m last time.
Full year operating profit also topped hopes, increasing 27% to 705m compared to analyst expectations of 666m-704m.
Pretax profit for the fourth quarter was 91m, ahead of analysts' consensus hopes of 51m and versus a 6m loss last time.
Fourth quarter operating profit was 93m compared to analysts consensus expectations of 77m and 46m last time.
Full year operating margin was 8.3%, up from 7.2% and was 4.4% in the fourth quarter, versus 2.5%.
Group turnover for the year was 8.52bn, up 9.6% on a flying programme 2.4% bigger in available tonne kilometers (ATKs).
For the fourth quarter, group turnover was up 13.2% at 2.12bn on a flying programme 2.2% higher in ATKs.
'These are good results with revenue performance driven by improvements in seat factors and yield,' said CEO, Willie Walsh.
'We achieved an operating margin of 8.3% and as a result all our staff will share in a 48m bonus. We remain committed to our goal of reaching a 10% margin by 2008. Our shorthaul business is now in profit for the first time in 10 years but we have still more to do.'
Net debt at 1.6bn fell by 1.3bn during the year, a 5bn reduction since its December 2001 peak. Operating cashflow was 1.3bn, an increase of 334m.
BA's total costs increased 8.2%. The annual fuel bill rose 44.7% to 1.6bn, while employee costs were up 5%.
The airline revealed the accounting deficit in the New Airways Pension Scheme (NAPS) is up by 101m to 2.1bn, despite the company's increased contributions and equity markets at a five year high.
'We have announced our proposal to tackle the pension deficit and I am pleased with the dialogue we have had with staff, trustees and trade unions on this vital issue,' said Walsh.
Strawbs
- 19 May 2006 13:50
- 111 of 1564
Looks OK. Although it's not one of my sectors, so I don't really know. The question I would be asking is how much will the debt repayments cost next year with maybe another 1/2 % or more on interest rates. Continued high oil and energy prices, possibly slowing consumer demand due to the same factors on industry and consumers (e.g higher personal/company debt repayments, energy costs). These things are cummulative. Maybe my thinking is different because of my investment stratergy. I look for improving prospects to be "in" when the crowd get interested, rather that "in" when things look rosey. Who knows. Investing is a personal choice, and people need to go with their own instincts. Just my point of view at the end of the day.
Strawbs.
cynic
- 19 May 2006 14:06
- 112 of 1564
Strawbs - you may like to check out Mark Shipman who has recently written a very interesting book on investing in commodities
Strawbs
- 19 May 2006 14:09
- 113 of 1564
Thanks. I'll take a look. Can you give me an overview?
Strawbs.
cynic
- 19 May 2006 14:13
- 114 of 1564
He is an active trader who actually makes his living trading commodities. He argues that straight commdities, rather than shares in mining etc, will always in the long term go up, though he agree with me, when I e-mailed him last week that commodities - e.g. copper and gold - were well overdue for a substantial correction; why did I not take my own advice? ..... He highlights in particular the growing needs for commodities in the developing economies, especially China (of course) and India .
He has a web page trend-follower.com
Strawbs
- 19 May 2006 14:22
- 115 of 1564
OK. Sounds interesting. I'll take a look.
Strawbs.
ellio
- 19 May 2006 14:33
- 116 of 1564
Conspiracy theory???
Artificially created sell-off, warning shot to lots of small investors, don't want too many private investors making too much money. There has been alot of money pumped back into the markets recently, they don't want to kill the investment flat again.
The theory is that investments are best left to the profesionals, I think thats what they were trying to do. The mm's just go and make it look worse by marking everything down ridulously and making it look worse than it actually is.
Still time will tell.
Strawbs
- 19 May 2006 14:46
- 117 of 1564
Worked with me. :-) But as you say. Only time will tell.
Strawbs.
cynic
- 19 May 2006 14:54
- 118 of 1564
Ellio .... what a load of rubbish!
hewittalan6
- 19 May 2006 15:21
- 120 of 1564
Actually, I have been chatting to my stockbrokers, Elvis & JFK Ltd, in Roswell, New Mexico, and they think Ellio may have a point.
;-)
Alan
cynic
- 19 May 2006 15:39
- 122 of 1564
Americans in particular are obsessed with conspiracy theories from the assassination of JFK onwards ..... Not sure it is not just another aspect of modern society where there is great reluctance to accept responsibility for our own actions
jimmy b
- 19 May 2006 16:17
- 123 of 1564
Don't anyone start on about Elvis ,i know he's alive ! .
bristlelad
- 19 May 2006 18:10
- 124 of 1564
ha/ who is his this ELVIS GUY??
goldfinger
- 20 May 2006 01:35
- 125 of 1564
Cynic, you saying that JFK wasnt a conspiracy then???????????????.
What about the magic bullet or have you not seen that or beleive one bullet can deviate 5 times in different directions within the human mass?.
Responsibilities for ones own actions? , well yes I agree with you on that point especially within the Oilys and commodities sectors but then again I saw the bubble bursting here many months ago , why should I take on the negative impacts inflicted on perfectly sound and value stocks well away from these sectors.
The MMs as per usual just take the mick and earn a very good bonus at the year end, lets face it summer trade to them is basic salary most years.
Turnover to them is critical.
skyhigh
- 20 May 2006 10:31
- 126 of 1564
Ellio,
I see where you're coming from.. but it's unlikely...anyway, since when have mms, stockborokers etc., had the best interests of PIs in mind.. I've been stitched up by a few of them.. ie HB, city equ. etc.,. My best gains have been when i have made my own decisions !
This week has been a typical "sell in May and go away" cycle with USAs higher inflation and interest rates scare a trigger for the slide..
It'll probably slide a bit more but recover in the autumn/winter but maybe not dramatically.. IMO
cynic
- 20 May 2006 12:55
- 127 of 1564
Goldfinger
I think JFK was a lot murkier than his public image, though I am more of the opinion that, if anyone, the mafia may have been behind the assassination rather than the Russians or similar.
But going back to the markets ..... If I was an MM in a turbulent market, I too would increase the spreads as a means of self- protection as much as anything else. Similarly, I would not be averse to refusing a large sell (or buy) order (size being relative to the cap etc) at the published price. For sure, where there is only one MM as is the case with many small(er) stocks, there is per se no competition, but such is life.
And for Skyhigh (and others), IMO it is the spectre of higher inflation in US linked to almost inevitable further rate increases with their potential effect on the US domestic and thus worldwide economies, that was the real catalyst behind the recent dramatic falls. That said, and I admit I was foolish enough not to follow my own advice, this was a sharp correction just wating to happen as the copper price in particular, but indicative of a wider problem, spiralled to ridiculous levels.
Harry6
- 20 May 2006 13:10
- 128 of 1564
Cynic - I was just wondering, and don't want to be rude like, but how old are you?