Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Hils :-) - Cast your rule over HICL and see what you think. Another boring yielder - ex on the 17th. I'm short @5838 btw.

Break it up, children!

That's a great article Hils. So the Euro is stuffed. I think you said it first :-)

SC: The Euro was always stuffed - it was stuffed before it started. The rest of them should have got the message about a single currency in 1992 when the UK fell out of the ERM. The Pound and the DM couldn't be held in a narrow exchange band - what hope did Club Med ever have of converging their economies with Germany?

That exercise (the GBP/DM ERM thing) also gave the lie to the Euro itself - we were adopting the DM, renamed Euro.

What is going to be painful is to watch how many tens of Billions of whatever are going to be used to prop this moribund edifice up. They will bash on regardless, because collapse of the Euro could doom to the whole abominable European Project - and we couldn't have that, could we?

ttt

Don't know if anyone else has noticed (sure Hiltops has) that EUR/USD seems to have fallen through the uppity trendline established early Jun-Sep. The slightly shallower second trend established late Jun-Sep is now under threat - no great suprise I suppose.

PTH,

I have been watching it, but I don't think you can categorically say that it's broken that trendline until close of play. At the moment I think it's just piercing it intraday, although I am inclined to suspect that it'll be a major event if the price does close below the line tonight. I think a lot of real money players who have been long since July time when it broke the previous downtrend will start to rethink their approach.

I'm not overly bothered by the shallower trendline you mention though, as I can't see too much significance in it. The market was certainly making a big song and dance a few weeks ago when the price broke down through the much steeper trendline from mid-June to late-October.

Hiltops, certainly agree with yr comments re the trendline support, I imagine much will depend on the US this afternoon, not that many will be at work!

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2010/11/til-government-debt-do-us-part.html">
A summary of debt positions in a number of countries.

Just who the hell do you think you are Mr Van Rumpoy?

Go Nige!

Any feedback on the new calendar?

Oh, and December Currency Trader mag is now online.

Absolutely brilliant Hilary, thankyou. I only dabble in cable occasionally, trying to get my head round it, so your calendar will be v. useful

It seems a bit tidier than the DailyFX/FXCM one that I had there previously. For anybody who hasn't realised, you can also click on any of the news events for a more detailed explanation of what the event is all about.

You could do that on the previous incarnation :-)

Hey that's super fast and super smart Hiltops!
A lot more so than youknowwhose ;)

My post was for the benefit of people who didn't know that, Skinners. I figured that you'd have already sussed that one out.

I think this calendar is probably fed from the same source as the previous one, but without all the adverts. It's also split over several pages which helps to keep the header a bit smaller and tidier.

Does anybody know if it's possible to have a variable height for the iFrame so that it doesn't invoke the scrollbars when an event is clicked and the page length increases?

:-) yes the loading is much better.

It's the flash in the old FXCM adverts which killed the pageload speed.

Hi Chocopops!

Nice header, Hil.

Morning, Choccie!

11 for 11: Potential risks to watch for in the new year

These are not predictions; these are potential risks that could crop up in the new year.


Here goes:

Potential dollar pluses

1/ European sovereign debt crisis intensifies*
2/ ECB drops vow to remove stimulus; adds liquidity instead*
3/ UK adds to QE to offset economic drag of fiscal austerity
4/ Chinese property bubble bursts
5/ US yields rise as US economic recovery gains strength
6/ US adopts comprehensive long-term fiscal program modeled after Simpson-Bowles Commission recommendations*
7/ USD retains and builds on reserve currency status as central banks shun euro and reduce existing holdings
8/ Geopolitical uncertainty in Iran, Korean Peninsula revive USD safe-haven status*
9/ BOJ, BOE, ECB embark on expansive new monetary easings, including QE
10/ BOJ joins Asian neighbors in actively managing the JPY FX rate
11/ Commodities bubble bursts as fear of dollar collapse abates.

Potential dollar minuses

1/ US and Japan join global sovereign debt crisis; gold and other metals benefit
2/ US yields fall as US economic recovery flags; deflation fears revive
3/ UK economy rebounds despite austerity; BOE raises rates to contain inflation*
4/ US yields soar as government fails to get a handle on fiscal policy and market loses confidence
5/ Risk appetites rise, fueled by a rush of global central bank liquidity sending metals, agricultural products and energy sharply higher*
6/ Emerging markets continue to grow steadily, drawing capital from developed markets
7/ JPY resumes climb versus USD and Asian currencies as Japan keep money at home rather than seek higher returns abroad
8/ European sovereign debt crisis abates; banks replenish capital
9/ China engineers a soft landing, restraining inflation without damaging asset markets
10/ India overtakes China, becomes the market focus in emerging markets
11/ EUR regains market confidence, dollars share of reserves declines